MORE Drops In The Bucket

by RDOGuy on Jan 2, 2010 9:24 PM CST

From the FanPosts. -Chris

About a week ago, I presented some statistical analysis to shed some light on the unofficial data for NFL dropped passes collected by third party vendor STATS LLC. Specifically, I was interested in determining how dropped passes related to other mainstream receiving statistics, and trying to get an idea what kind of standards STATS uses for counting dropped passes.

Of course... this statistical category is of much current interest to Chiefs fans because three Kansas City receivers - Dwayne Bowe, Bobby Wade and Mark Bradley - are among the league leaders, and we are told the Chiefs as a group are on the verge of setting an NFL record for the season. So I was also hoping to learn more about where Chiefs receivers stood.

Unfortunately, the data available to me at that time was incomplete, and I couldn't draw very many conclusions from it - other than my own suspicion that the data is mysterious, because it doesn't seem to line up very well with other, official NFL receiving statistics.

I received many nice compliments for the work, but also some valid criticisms of my methods. In hindsight, I probably should have abandoned the project when I realized I couldn't easily obtain drops data for all NFL receivers.

But since then - quite by accident - I've discovered that you can get this data. It's just that unless you are a subscriber to the STATS service, it's a hell of a lot of work to assemble it. So please remember that if you're interested in having me do some additional analysis of this data after the season's final week - or in... say... week 9 of the 2010 season - I'm pretty sure I'll be busy washing my hair!

There's a lot of data to go through here, but it's very interesting.

First, a few notes about where the data was obtained. STATS does not provide drops in their league breakdowns of NFL pass receiving data, except for a 25 man leaderboard that covers all types of pass receiving positions. But it turns out that in statistical breakdowns for individual players, drops are included as a footnote. However... this footnote is shown for wide receivers only - not tight ends, running backs or fullbacks. So if you already have a database of regular receiving data - which I had for the number crunching I did in the previous post - all you have to do is add the data from these footnotes to your database.

You just have to do it one wide receiver at a time.

(It may very well be that the IT department at the Washington Post - the STATS subscriber from whose web site I got all this data - is wondering why they've had a big jump in page views from Kansas City during the last few days. I could explain it to them very easily!)

So this analysis will include wide receivers only. But for our purposes, that's OK, because it's the Chiefs' wide receivers who are on the hot seat about drops. In addition, I have compiled data only for those wide receivers who have had 40 or more balls thrown to them this season.

First, a revised Wide Receiver Hall of Shame:

NFL Wide Receiver Drops Leaderboard

Rank	Player	Team	Drops
1	Dwayne Bowe	KAN	11
2	Mark Bradley	KAN	9
3	Bobby Wade	KAN	9
4	Louis Murphy	OAK	9
5	Terrell Owens	BUF	9
6	Santonio Holmes	PIT	9
7	Ted Ginn Jr.	MIA	8
8	Marques Colston	NOR	8
9	Calvin Johnson	DET	8
10	Michael Crabtree	SFO	7
11	Michael Jenkins	ATL	7
12	Nate Washington	TEN	7
13	Roy Williams	DAL	7
14	Mohamed Massaquoi	CLE	7
15	Donnie Avery	STL	7
16	Mario Manningham	NYG	7
17	Donald Driver	GNB	7
18	Derrick Mason	BAL	7
19	Randy Moss	NWE	7
20	Brandon Marshall	DEN	7
21	Andre Johnson	HOU	7
22	Darrius Heyward-Bey	OAK	6
23	Antonio Bryant	TAM	6
24	Hines Ward	PIT	6
25	Wes Welker	NWE	6

Yep... this is even worse than the one in the last post - the one that included 49ers TE Vernon Davis (who currently has 11 drops) and other non-WRs like Dallas Clark, Jerome Harrison and a couple of others. Three Chiefs at the very top of the list!

Ouch!

However... other than the fact that three Chiefs are on top of this leaderboard, what's wrong with it?

It doesn't show how many passes were attempted to each of these guys. If two guys have the same number of drops, but one of them had twice as many balls thrown to them as the other, then one guy has a drops problem twice as large as the other. So let's factor that in, and create a new leaderboard that is based on this percentage, rather than on the raw number:

NFL Wide Receiver Drop Percentage Leaderboard

Rank	Drop Rk	Player	Team	Att	Drops	Drop %
1	2	Mark Bradley	KAN	57	9	15.8%
2	22	Darrius Heyward-Bey	OAK	40	6	15.0%
3	3	Bobby Wade	KAN	69	9	13.0%
4	1	Dwayne Bowe	KAN	86	11	12.8%
5	7	Ted Ginn Jr.	MIA	72	8	11.1%
6	26	Michael Clayton	TAM	47	5	10.6%
7	4	Louis Murphy	OAK	87	9	10.3%
8	10	Michael Crabtree	SFO	78	7	9.0%
9	5	Terrell Owens	BUF	101	9	8.9%
10	27	James Jones	GNB	57	5	8.8%
11	11	Michael Jenkins	ATL	83	7	8.4%
12	28	Dennis Northcutt	DET	60	5	8.3%
13	12	Nate Washington	TEN	87	7	8.0%
14	13	Roy Williams	DAL	87	7	8.0%
15	23	Antonio Bryant	TAM	77	6	7.8%
16	8	Marques Colston	NOR	104	8	7.7%
17	14	Mohamed Massaquoi	CLE	91	7	7.7%
18	15	Donnie Avery	STL	93	7	7.5%
19	52	Mike Furrey	CLE	40	3	7.5%
20	53	Johnnie Lee Higgins	OAK	41	3	7.3%
21	16	Mario Manningham	NYG	99	7	7.1%
22	54	Maurice Stovall	TAM	44	3	6.8%
23	6	Santonio Holmes	PIT	135	9	6.7%
24	29	Earl Bennett	CHI	75	5	6.7%
25	17	Donald Driver	GNB	106	7	6.6%

Quite a different spin, isn't it? Now Mark Bradley becomes the guy with the biggest problem. Oakland's Heyward-Bey rockets up the list, as do several others ranked in the 50s on the raw number alone. Yet there are still three Kansas City Chiefs in the top four - and that's bad... right?

But those three guys all have one thing in common: they're all catching passes thrown by Matt Cassel.

Now... don't get upset, Cassel fans. This isn't the beginning of an indictment of our shiny new #7. This is simply recognition of a fact: when a pass is dropped, there are many factors that can come into play. Sure... it could be simple. The ball can hit the receiver right in the hands, and he can drop it because he isn't concentrating on what he's doing - or simply because he has hands of stone. But the ball could also be early or late... thrown slightly ahead or behind the receiver... slightly underthrown or slightly overthrown. Any of these things can contribute significantly to a drop - and could easily be completely invisible to everyone except the coaches watching the tape later - and, of course, the quarterback and receiver involved.

So here's the next question that drove me to this project: what happens if you break down drop percentages based on the overall quality of a team's passing game? Are the guys with the most drops playing for teams that have relatively poor completion percentages across the board, or are they scattered equally among good passing teams and bad?

Figuring this out would have an additional benefit: it would make it easy to see if standards for dropped passes are being applied pretty evenly across the league.

I realized, though, that this data might be a little tough to comprehend in print. So to make it easier to absorb, I first decided to send all NFL teams to school, and assign them a letter grade based on their team completion percentages:

NFL Passing Grades

Team	Rec	Att	Comp %	Score	Grade
Saints	363	510	71.2%	100%	A
Texans	375	543	69.1%	97%	A-
Vikings	322	471	68.4%	96%	B+
Colts	381	560	68.0%	96%	B+
Cardinals	373	552	67.6%	95%	B
Chargers	310	465	66.7%	94%	B
Patriots	365	550	66.4%	93%	B-
Steelers	333	506	65.8%	92%	B-
Packers	335	518	64.7%	91%	C+
Redskins	312	484	64.5%	91%	C+
Ravens	310	488	63.5%	89%	C
Cowboys	323	513	63.0%	88%	C
Giants	318	506	62.8%	88%	C
Bengals	279	445	62.7%	88%	C
Broncos	309	494	62.6%	88%	C
Jaguars	293	471	62.2%	87%	C
Seahawks	352	567	62.1%	87%	C
Dolphins	311	505	61.6%	87%	C
Bears	298	484	61.6%	87%	C
Eagles	314	510	61.6%	87%	C
Falcons	309	511	60.5%	85%	C
49ers	295	493	59.8%	84%	C
Rams	301	511	58.9%	83%	C-
Bills	240	409	58.7%	82%	C-
Panthers	250	433	57.7%	81%	D+
Titans	254	441	57.6%	81%	D+
Chiefs	271	485	55.9%	79%	D
Jets	202	366	55.2%	78%	D
Lions	292	537	54.4%	76%	D-
Buccaneers	264	487	54.2%	76%	D-
Raiders	228	439	51.9%	73%	F
Browns	208	414	50.2%	71%	F

I even graded everybody on the curve, awarding two As and two Fs, six Bs and six Ds, and sixteen Cs. Take a look:

NFL Wide Receiver Drop Percentage Leaderboard
Including Team Passing Grades

Player	Team	Drop %	Tm Grade
Mark Bradley	KAN	15.8%	D
Darrius Heyward-Bey	OAK	15.0%	F
Bobby Wade	KAN	13.0%	D
Dwayne Bowe	KAN	12.8%	D
Ted Ginn Jr.	MIA	11.1%	C
Michael Clayton	TAM	10.6%	D-
Louis Murphy	OAK	10.3%	F
Michael Crabtree	SFO	9.0%	C-
Terrell Owens	BUF	8.9%	C-
James Jones	GNB	8.8%	C+
Michael Jenkins	ATL	8.4%	C-
Dennis Northcutt	DET	8.3%	D-
Nate Washington	TEN	8.0%	D+
Roy Williams	DAL	8.0%	C
Antonio Bryant	TAM	7.8%	D-
Mohamed Massaquoi	CLE	7.7%	F
Marques Colston	NOR	7.7%	A
Mike Furrey	CLE	7.5%	F
Donnie Avery	STL	7.5%	C-
Johnnie Lee Higgins	OAK	7.3%	F
Mario Manningham	NYG	7.1%	C
Maurice Stovall	TAM	6.8%	D-
Earl Bennett	CHI	6.7%	C
Santonio Holmes	PIT	6.7%	B-
Patrick Crayton	DAL	6.6%	C

Well, that's pretty much what you'd expect, isn't it? Most of the guys with the highest percentage of dropped passes are on teams with average (and in most cases, below average) completion percentages. This would suggest that the quarterback - along with the pass protection he receives, the quality of the running game to complement the passing game, and so on - are all contributing factors for players with higher percentages of dropped passes.

But let's be sure, and look at the data from the other direction:

NFL Wide Receiver LOWEST Drop Percentages
Including Team Passing Grades

Player	Team	Drop %	Tm Grade
Eddie Royal	DEN	0.0%	C
Greg Camarillo	MIA	0.0%	C
Robert Meachem	NOR	0.0%	A
Mike Thomas	JAC	0.0%	C
Keenan Burton	STL	0.0%	C-
Mike Sims-Walker	JAC	1.0%	C
Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	1.1%	D
Lee Evans	BUF	1.1%	C-
Steve Breaston	ARI	1.3%	B
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	1.4%	B
Mike Wallace	PIT	1.4%	B-
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	SEA	1.6%	C
Brandon Gibson	STL	1.6%	C-
Jason Avant	PHI	1.7%	C
David Anderson	HOU	1.9%	A-
Kelley Washington	BAL	2.2%	C
Devin Hester	CHI	2.3%	C
Jeremy Maclin	PHI	2.4%	C
Anquan Boldin	ARI	2.5%	B
Josh Morgan	SFO	2.5%	C-
Hakeem Nicks	NYG	2.7%	C
Reggie Wayne	IND	2.8%	B+
Vincent Jackson	SDG	2.8%	B
Mark Clayton	BAL	2.8%	C
Jabar Gaffney	DEN	2.9%	C

This time, the guys with the lowest drop percentages are the guys who play on teams with at least average (and sometimes above average) overall completion percentages; only a few play on teams at the other end of the spectrum.

This data has also convinced me that my original worry - that standards for counting dropped passes are not being applied evenly across the league - was without merit. I'd still love to know what those standards really are, but I am now willing to accept that whatever they happen to be, they are being applied fairly. I stand corrected, Satchmo.

However... we're not done yet. And this is where it gets interesting.

For just a moment, let's step back and look at the big picture. What, exactly, is a dropped pass? It's an incompletion. Nothing more, and nothing less. Sure... a drop hurts more at a critical point in a close game - a lot more - but the critical thing isn't really how many passes a receiver drops, but how many passes he catches.

So how can you measure how good a receiver really is? Let's see if we can figure out a way.

What if we compared a receiver's completion percentage to his team's completion percentage? But let's add a twist: when we figure the completion percentage of the team, we'll remove that receiver's contribution. So, for example, when we compare Dwayne Bowe's completion percentage to the team's percentage, the team's percentage will include passes to everybody except Dwayne Bowe.

We'll call this the Completion Differential Percentage, and if we figure it for all the wide receivers in the league, here's what we get:

NFL Wide Receiver Lowest Completion Differential Percentages

Player	Team	Comp %	Tm Cmp %	Diff	Drops Rk	Drop % Rk
Darrius Heyward-Bey	OAK	22.5%	54.9%	-32.4%	22	2
Michael Clayton	TAM	31.9%	56.6%	-24.7%	26	6
Louis Murphy	OAK	32.2%	56.8%	-24.6%	4	7
Roy Williams	DAL	43.7%	66.9%	-23.2%	12	13
Justin Gage	TEN	40.0%	60.4%	-20.4%	59	40
Mark Clayton	BAL	46.5%	66.4%	-19.9%	75	73
Pierre Garcon	IND	51.6%	71.2%	-19.6%	30	33
Bryant Johnson	DET	38.3%	57.2%	-19.0%	45	41
Isaac Bruce	SFO	42.9%	61.7%	-18.9%	56	29
Eddie Royal	DEN	46.8%	65.5%	-18.7%	95	91
Mohamed Massaquoi	CLE	36.3%	54.2%	-17.9%	14	17
Lee Evans	BUF	44.9%	62.5%	-17.6%	88	88
Johnnie Lee Higgins	OAK	36.6%	53.5%	-16.9%	53	20
Torry Holt	JAC	49.5%	65.8%	-16.2%	31	42
Mark Bradley	KAN	42.1%	57.7%	-15.6%	2	1
James Jones	GNB	50.9%	66.4%	-15.5%	27	10
Ted Ginn Jr.	MIA	48.6%	63.7%	-15.1%	7	5
Roddy White	ATL	50.3%	65.0%	-14.7%	38	69
Andre Johnson	HOU	59.0%	73.3%	-14.3%	21	53
Mike Wallace	PIT	53.6%	67.7%	-14.1%	86	85
Nate Washington	TEN	47.1%	60.2%	-13.0%	13	14
Donnie Avery	STL	48.4%	61.2%	-12.9%	15	18
Devin Thomas	WAS	53.2%	65.7%	-12.5%	55	27
Derrick Mason	BAL	55.0%	66.7%	-11.7%	18	35
Steve Smith	CAR	50.0%	61.1%	-11.1%	36	60

Wow. What happened? Only one Chief is in this Hall of Shame: Mark Bradley. He's already been released, of course - and now, perhaps, we know why. But how about the list of the 25 best?

NFL Wide Receiver Highest Completion Differential Percentages

Player	Team	Comp %	Tm Cmp %	Diff	Drops Rk	Drop % Rk
Mike Thomas	JAC	77.4%	60.3%	17.1%	92	94
Wes Welker	NWE	76.3%	62.3%	13.9%	25	62
Danny Amendola	STL	70.2%	57.5%	12.7%	58	37
Greg Camarillo	MIA	70.1%	60.3%	9.9%	94	92
Jason Avant	PHI	69.0%	60.6%	8.3%	84	82
Kevin Walter	HOU	76.1%	68.1%	8.1%	73	70
Mike Furrey	CLE	57.5%	49.5%	8.0%	52	19
Robert Meachem	NOR	78.2%	70.3%	7.9%	93	93
Kelley Washington	BAL	69.6%	62.9%	6.7%	82	80
Davone Bess	MIA	66.4%	60.3%	6.1%	48	63
Andre Caldwell	CIN	67.1%	61.8%	5.3%	64	57
Brandon Marshall	DEN	65.6%	61.2%	4.4%	20	48
Steve Smith	NYG	66.0%	61.6%	4.4%	37	67
David Anderson	HOU	73.1%	68.6%	4.4%	83	81
Hines Ward	PIT	69.0%	64.7%	4.3%	24	44
Josh Morgan	SFO	63.3%	59.2%	4.1%	77	76
Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	57.8%	54.3%	3.4%	89	89
Earl Bennett	CHI	64.0%	61.1%	2.9%	29	24
Chris Chambers	KAN	58.5%	55.6%	2.9%	71	61
Dennis Northcutt	DET	56.7%	54.1%	2.6%	28	12
Antwaan Randle-El	WAS	66.2%	64.2%	2.0%	41	32
Josh Reed	BUF	60.0%	58.5%	1.5%	70	52
Jeremy Maclin	PHI	62.7%	61.4%	1.3%	78	78
Miles Austin	DAL	63.8%	62.7%	1.1%	35	54
Austin Collie	IND	68.6%	67.9%	0.7%	46	45

Why... lookee here! There's a Chief on this list, too: Chris Chambers. Not the Hall of Shame, mind you... but the 25 best in the league.

But look who isn't on either list: Bobby Wade and Dwayne Bowe. While he's out of the top 25, Bowe is actually a bit above average in this comparison - ranked 38th out of 99 WRs with 40 or more attempts. That puts him ahead of Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Ochocinco, among others. Wade, on the other hand, is a bit below average at number 55. Lance Long - who only has 38 attempts for the Chiefs this season - would likely fall just a few spots behind Bowe if he had a couple more balls this season.

In my first post on this subject, I said that I wouldn't dream of suggesting that drops haven't been a problem for the Chiefs this season. I am not changing my position. They have been - particularly for Dwayne Bowe.

But let's not get carried away, shall we?

I remember that during his first two seasons, there were plenty of people commenting on Dwayne Bowe's propensity for dropping easy catches - and then turning around and making spectacularly difficult ones two plays later. These, of course, were the same two seasons in which he gained over 2000 yards and scored a dozen touchdowns as part of an incredibly anemic offense.

And during those seasons, I don't recall a single person ever suggesting that the Chiefs should offer Dwayne Bowe as trade bait.

Yet now - largely, in my opinion, because people have become so emotionally invested in whether the Chiefs' signing of Matt Cassel is going to pay off - Dwayne Bowe is suddenly Public Enemy Number One. Not because he's not any good, but simply because he's... well, because he's still Dwayne Bowe. He still muffs a gimme sometimes, and then catches an amazing TD pass in traffic with two toes just inside the boundary. That's always been the Bowe Show.

Dwayne Bowe is not the reason Matt Cassel hasn't led his team to a winning season, as he did in New England last season. That hasn't happened because the Chiefs have been in a whirlwind of transition since the opening week. That's going to settle down in the second year of Todd Haley's administration. We're already seeing how much difference a solid running game can make to Matt Cassel's performance - and in the performance of his receivers. Last week, Bowe was targeted in a dozen plays - and caught nine of those balls.

So let's not go off half-cocked and offer Dwayne Bowe to anybody who'll give us a draft pick for him. Find another solid guy - somebody better than Bobby Wade, and younger than Chris Chambers - to line up on the other side. With that kind of a lineup - and a full offseason with everybody working together out of the same playbook - we won't have to be talking about the passes Dwayne Bowe dropped any more.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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Comments

I think we need a bigger bucket

by KCCheeze on Jan 2, 2010 8:48 PM CST reply actions

Dwayne Bowe is "Public Enemy Number One" ...

Because he’s not progressing as he should be. It’s completely unacceptable to drop the gimme’s and catch the difficult ones. And then the whole short-arming bit…

I don’t think he should be traded at this point, but I do believe he’s playing at a level below where he should be in his 3rd year. Statistically, he’s regressed.

As for Bradley… I’m glad Pioli and Co. saw the same things we’re seeing in your numbers. Clearly he had ta go.

Good stuff, RDO. Wreckx-N-Effect!

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius, in contrary to Glenn Dorsey lining up in the 2-tech

by ArrowSpread on Jan 2, 2010 9:04 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

How badly has Bowe regressed?

“Statistically”, he really has not regressed badly at all in per game numbers. He missed 4 games and didn’t start in a 5th but the per game are more or less consistent with his rookie year but down from last year. Not to put everything on QB play (which has been terrible this season) but the whole offense has regressed. Unless we have a huge game against Denver just about every single offensive stat will be worse than last year. That is not all on Bowe no matter how much some people may wish it were.

Predictions for 2009:

The Chiefs will regret cutting LJ

Bowe's numbers regress due to lack of decent QB play.

The D gets better in the second half but still is plagued by big plays

Cassel looks more like the guy Pioli almost cut in the '08 preseason instead of the franchise QB he hoped he would be when he traded him for

Chiefs 3-13

by bonesjackson on Jan 2, 2010 10:06 PM CST up reply actions

My point is that he's showing no signs of improving

He’s still doing the same ol’ D-Bowe Show type isht, only without the all the show. His level of play hasn’t improved. He still tip-toes at times, and gets alligator arms in traffic when the hit may be coming.

His focus still isn’t there yet. The third year is typically that breakout year for any receiver with the potential to be great. He needs to pick it up.

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius, in contrary to Glenn Dorsey lining up in the 2-tech

by ArrowSpread on Jan 2, 2010 10:28 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

The Show is the NFL

Bowe is a #1 WR
a little more concentration on the easy stuff, he is all in on the tough throws.
Dwayne has never , too my knowledge, been difficult to coach or a Prima Donna.
Maybe all the LSU players on this team have kept him grounded :)

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Jan 2, 2010 10:31 PM CST up reply actions

I've never questioned Bowe as a #1 WR

But at this point we need to see him progress. He’s a #1 WR on a team that leads the league in drops. Lets not get carried away.

There is much room for improvement, and those signs needs to start showing. I’ll cut him some slack because, as Bones said, the entire offense has regressed.

But 2010 is the year of zero excuses for this team.

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius, in contrary to Glenn Dorsey lining up in the 2-tech

by ArrowSpread on Jan 2, 2010 10:42 PM CST up reply actions

Bowe needs no excuses look at his stats

Wade needs excuses

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Jan 2, 2010 10:49 PM CST up reply actions

I have questioned Bowe as a #1 WR

And I still think he would be more effective as a #2.

by Nick Britt on Jan 3, 2010 1:42 AM CST up reply actions

Semantics really...

Number 1 receiver is just the guy that gets the most balls thrown his way, on the other hand technically Wes Welker is a 3 in the slot, but he actually catches the most passes.

"Readin's don't never not dun nuthin' for not nobody!" ---Early Cuyler

by averagegatsby on Jan 3, 2010 8:33 AM CST up reply actions

DBowe's main QB's

2007 was mostly Huard until the end of the season when Croyle and Huard were flip flopping (Croyle had high QB stats in 6 games while Huard had 10)!

2008 Bowe had Huard for 4 games and Thigpen for 12!

And now 2009…

Barring an injury to Cassel, or a lopsided win/loss, Cassel will be our leading QB. So that means that we’ll have Croyle for 1, and Cassel for 15 games.

Now, I agree with most people that Cassel is the best out of this entire group, and even the most accurate. The problem lies in comparing Cassel relative to everyone else. He isn’t accurate. Anyone who watches the games will say that the dropped passes aren’t only on the receivers. I’d throw out a number of about ~50% each way.

Either way, Bowe has had a myriad of non-elite QB’s throwing at him. He’s also had QB’s who have been injured week in and week out. He’s also had changing of his OC EVERY SEASON.

This isn’t good for a QB, this isn’t good for a team, and I think this is the major problem for our offense. We need at least a few seasons to work out the kinks of a newly installed offense. We need a whole offseason (not just two weeks of preseason play) to develop the offensive playbook and timing between all of the offensive players.

by EyePod on Jan 3, 2010 9:00 AM CST up reply actions

I agree he hasnt progressed the way I hoped

But he really hasn’t regressed.

Predictions for 2009:

The Chiefs will regret cutting LJ

Bowe's numbers regress due to lack of decent QB play.

The D gets better in the second half but still is plagued by big plays

Cassel looks more like the guy Pioli almost cut in the '08 preseason instead of the franchise QB he hoped he would be when he traded him for

Chiefs 3-13

by bonesjackson on Jan 3, 2010 8:33 AM CST up reply actions

You get 3 rec's just for the work you did

Thanks for putting in the time

Bewsaf

by Bewsaf on Jan 2, 2010 9:42 PM CST reply actions

I think we should just fire Haley...

And hire the Head coaches of Navy and Georgia Tech… That way we can just run the triple option and never have to worry about throwing the ball when we run the ball 57 times a game.

"Readin's don't never not dun nuthin' for not nobody!" ---Early Cuyler

by averagegatsby on Jan 2, 2010 10:20 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

You better have rec'd this Or a take my Tate for WR ball and go home :)

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Jan 2, 2010 10:28 PM CST up reply actions

I dont rec things...

Does it make me an asshole… Probably, but I just dont do it… Im an equal opportunist douche and Im not afraid to say so.

"Readin's don't never not dun nuthin' for not nobody!" ---Early Cuyler

by averagegatsby on Jan 2, 2010 10:30 PM CST up reply actions

I rec for you

Not rec'ing good stuff is Douche

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Jan 2, 2010 10:33 PM CST up reply actions

Thanks for your hard work! It does not go unappreciated. :)

Winning begins with Attitude - Haley and Pioli will be winners in KC!

I'll forever be a Chiefs fan! Only God himself could take that away from me, but when I get to my great reward, I'll rejoin two bigger fans, my Mom and Dad.

by Lanier63 on Jan 2, 2010 10:21 PM CST reply actions

Damn Above and Beyond RDO

all I got is a Rec :)

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Jan 2, 2010 10:26 PM CST reply actions

Completely off the subject

But i just got back from The Blind Side and Michael Oher is not only a good player but for everything he has been through a great person. One of the best movies i have ever seen

by dt58 on Jan 2, 2010 10:52 PM CST reply actions

+100,000

Winning begins with Attitude - Haley and Pioli will be winners in KC!

I'll forever be a Chiefs fan! Only God himself could take that away from me, but when I get to my great reward, I'll rejoin two bigger fans, my Mom and Dad.

by Lanier63 on Jan 3, 2010 9:54 AM CST up reply actions

I love all the work

you have put in here. its interesting that chambers is a top 25 guy, but his drop that would have won a game is the one that stands out most in my head. I am also a guy of the belief that these poor receivers we have are so much more to blame for cassel’s play than anything. no separation, rare big plays from a receiver, and obviously the drops.
the running game has been more exciting lately as u said. however…..0-5 record past 5 games.

by Howi on Jan 2, 2010 10:55 PM CST reply actions

Go the way of Bill Walsh

and make EVERYBODY’S job up for grabs. That’ll make sure D Bowe has some soft hands, make DJ come hard on D and make Tyson Jackson be a Pro Bowler next year. Or we can just get a slew of new asst/position coaches that can whip ‘em into shape and teach some back-to-basics fundamental football so it doesn’t look like a complete circus on Sundays in 2010

by His Royal Greatness on Jan 2, 2010 11:04 PM CST reply actions

But this DESERVES a rec

by His Royal Greatness on Jan 2, 2010 11:05 PM CST up reply actions

It's amazing how people get things done

when they know their paycheck is on the line.

Predictions:

Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010

by jmcgoblue on Jan 2, 2010 11:15 PM CST up reply actions

Really good stuff, but I think the calculations on the bottom graph are a little bit off.

Just subtracting the percentage of the individual vs. the team doesn’t actually give an accurate differential.

Take this example…

A Receiver has 17 receptions out of 21 passes for a .809 percentage.
Lets just say that the team has a total of 70 completions out of 84 passes for a .833 percentage.
If you take the difference of these 2 you get a .0243 percentage. Yet this really isn’t accurate as the team total is still using the receivers statistics.

What needs to happen is the receptions need to be removed, and the passes attempted removed from the totals.

70 -17= 53
84 -21= 63

So when you remove the production of the receiver from the team you will divide 53/63. This comes up with a .841 percentage without the receiver. If you take the completion percentage of the receiver – the completion percentage of the team you actually get a -.032 difference instead of the -.024.

I don’t know if you have the total receptions, and passes attempted for each team, and I expect that this would be VERY time consuming to calculate it this way.

I know that you have taken PLENTY of time researching and calculating, and I apologize if this post detracts from that. I would be very interested in seeing if this changes any of the positioning of the players.(I expect Mark Bradley would probably see the same positioning) Also if you would like some help I would be more than happy to help out with the list.

Kudos, and rec’d

by ravenhawk on Jan 2, 2010 11:51 PM CST reply actions

I think that's what he did

when we figure the completion percentage of the team, we’ll remove that receiver’s contribution. So, for example, when we compare Dwayne Bowe’s completion percentage to the team’s percentage, the team’s percentage will include passes to everybody except Dwayne Bowe.

by Exp on Jan 3, 2010 4:30 AM CST up reply actions

Exp is correct

I did it just he way you you’re talking about, ravenhawk.

John

"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"

by RDOGuy on Jan 3, 2010 8:35 AM CST up reply actions

Gotcha...

I expected a higher percentage to be different… or at least 1 of them different. When you are talking say 500 passes the differential should decrease between the 2 ways that I had described above.

Still every one of them match subtracting the individual vs. team percentages… I would expect at least one of them to be slightly off.

by ravenhawk on Jan 3, 2010 10:07 AM CST up reply actions

No...

In the last two tables, the Diff column has to add up, as it is the relative difference between the receiver’s completion percentage and the team’s completion percentage without that receiver.

For example… in the last table, the Eagles’ team completion percentage without Jason Avant is 60.6%, while the team completion percentage without Jeremy Maclin is 61.4%. So what is shown in the Diff column is how much better (or worse) a receiver’s completion percentage is when it is compared to the rest of the team.

John

"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"

by RDOGuy on Jan 3, 2010 10:40 AM CST up reply actions

Ok... then that explains why there is a .1 percent difference from my below post.

I would like to chat off of site about this as I feel like I’m detracting away from the thread…

The major problem is seeing what is a dropped pass.

by ravenhawk on Jan 3, 2010 10:46 AM CST up reply actions

Actually to see if you had done it the way that I had seen I calculated one.

and the numbers don’t match up.

take Robert Meachem

you have Robert Meachem with 78.2% completed passes. The Saints with 70.3% completed passes, and a differential of 7.9%. If you subtract 78.2 from 70.3 you get 7.9.

The Saints passed the ball 515 times, and completed 363 passes for what I calculated a 70.4%. I know that there is a .1% difference and this shouldn’t be significant.(only in standard deviation should it be significant)

Robert Meachem caught 43 pass of 55 thrown to him for 78.2 percent.

Subtract Robert Meachem’s 43 passes caught from the total 363 passes caught by all Saints receivers (this equals 320). Subtract the 55 passes thrown to Meachem and you get 460. Divided 320 by 460, and you get 69..6 of the passes completed.

Subtract the percentage of passes caught by Meachem, 78.2% by (the team – Meachem), 69.6%, and you get 8.6. This difference would push Meachem up 3 spots so I would expect that this could be significant.

by ravenhawk on Jan 3, 2010 10:40 AM CST up reply actions

The data I had for receptions

was loaded from a single source on the web early this week – before I wrote the original post. What I did was load the individual statistics for all NFL receivers into a spreadsheet, and then determine the team stats by adding the receptions and targets for all receivers for each team. That did indeed show the Saints with 363 receptions, but just 510 targets – not 515. That’s where the difference in this specific example is coming from.

I can’t explain why this would be – but whatever the difference, it should average out for all teams, because my underlying data came from the same source.

John

"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"

by RDOGuy on Jan 3, 2010 11:16 AM CST up reply actions

When I first looked I swore that it said 514... so maybe it just needs to be revisited after the season is over.

by ravenhawk on Jan 3, 2010 11:29 AM CST up reply actions

RDO

We now longer claim Mark Bradley as a Chief (at least I don’t).

by Nick Britt on Jan 3, 2010 1:44 AM CST reply actions

Take-home message

We need better receivers

by Nick Britt on Jan 3, 2010 1:44 AM CST reply actions

awesome stuff man!

If you go for round three, take into consideration how many times the quarter back was under pressure with the ensuing drops.

wrecked

Prediction: Tamba gets 10 sacks this year.

by ChiefDog on Jan 3, 2010 5:06 AM CST reply actions

First off this is a stellar post. This is one of those extremely rare gems I spoke about in my post

We’re Just Better Fans. The one that only comes along once maybe twice in a season and you bookmark it for future dissection because you do not want to lose tract of it.
I’m going to stop on this comment box and start a second one to actually comment ON the post itself. Thanks RDO. OF course rec’d!

by krayfish on Jan 3, 2010 6:31 AM CST reply actions

These are all very very interesting stats. However, I am not convinced that stats based on so many

variable will ever be accurate enough to bank on. If Cassel has a hot streak of say 3 games, but then sucks the rest of the season, that would significiantly throw off the statistical accuracy of these numbers again. If during that streak he targeted Bowe for example more than any other reciever, that would mislead the big picture again.

Also, taking Chris Chambers would have to take in other factors like, why is a guy who never played here before our leading receiver? He’s brand new. So as u pointed out in your post…it’s been a bq.whirlwind of transitionbq.
(I just tried the gray quoting box thing…sorry if it didn’t work but that’s what the bq. thingy is for i guess)

So wouldn’t it stand to reason that a guy who has been a direct projectile within the whirlwind like Chamber should come here and struggle more so than NFL professional receivers who had been playing in this system all season to that point (Bowe, Wade, Bradley).

TO me it’s still too muddled to really interpret into anything clear.

by krayfish on Jan 3, 2010 6:40 AM CST reply actions

This is a great post

Still digesting some of this information but the tables are handy.

Arrowhead Pride

by Joel Thorman on Jan 3, 2010 6:49 AM CST reply actions

Rec'd, too

Arrowhead Pride

by Joel Thorman on Jan 3, 2010 6:49 AM CST up reply actions

I have to laugh Joel, I am still digesting it and it's 3pm et..lol

by krayfish on Jan 3, 2010 2:01 PM CST up reply actions

D.Bowe

Next time you have cramps { Tell the trainer & team doctor;Ok}

by 65tosspowertrap on Jan 3, 2010 7:51 AM CST reply actions

Thanks RDO

I’m glad that you and a few others out there like you enjoy crunching numbers, I was never good with stats. A very well written post that makes you wonder if stats were kept on drops as compared to QB mis-fires, where things would end up.

You touched briefly on why drops can happen, from the receiver just not doing his job, The QB throwing over or under the receiver, And even how much pressure the QB is under while the pass is being thrown. It is that last point that I think is the greatest weakness for the 09 Chiefs. When it started Cassel had no time to throw and was getting hit on every play. I think he lost faith in the offensive line and that has affected his play all season long. Unless the QB feels confident enough to stay in the pocket to make the throw, it’s unlikely that the throw will be easier of the receivers to catch.

All three things have to work together for the offense to be successful, The O line has to protect the QB so he can feel confident to make the throw to the open receiver. If any one of these things are not right you will end up with a dropped pass, and we have seen enough in 09.

is it me? or isn't about time the Lamar Hunt trophy belonged to His team?

This Chiefs team is closer to a new expansion team than it is a playoff contender, your expectations should match that.

by KC Fanatic on Jan 3, 2010 9:23 AM CST reply actions

I agree, KC Fanatic

The pressure on the quarterback obviously has a lot to do with his ability to put the ball exactly where it needs to go – I think everybody will agree with that. And the main way to keep pressure off the quarterback is to have e reasonably effective running game, which keeps the defense honest. The Chiefs have given up many fewer sacks since Charles became the starter. When Cassel actually gets used to that, I think his part of the equation will be much better.

John

"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"

by RDOGuy on Jan 3, 2010 9:40 AM CST up reply actions

Much better RDO

I have some ideas on how this data could be crunched further to show how bad our drop problem is or isn’t. I would say that the last 2 tables are not actually an indication that the drops are truly a function of the overall passing game as many may interpret. I’s actually a very nice grading method for how receivers are doing when not dropping passes.

In short, what RDO has done here is not provide a cumulative stat that exonerates our receivers, but rather provides 2 seperate stats to give a more complete picture. For example, Bowe is peforming slightly above average when not dropping and well below average when he does drop. This is discouraging. Chambers is average to above average in both areas and is clearly our best WR at this point.

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KCSatchmo on Jan 3, 2010 9:26 AM CST reply actions

Huh?

I’s actually a very nice grading method for how receivers are doing when not dropping passes.

Not really. What’s in the last two tables doesn’t take drops into consideration at all – other than the fact that drops are also incompletions. It’s simply a way to measure WR performance against the other receivers on the same team – who catch passes from the same quarterback, use the same playbook, have the same running game and pass protection supporting them, and so on. By this measure, Bradley was far and away the worst receiver on the Chiefs roster, so I am encouraged that the Chiefs were able to see this and do the right thing.

For example, Bowe is peforming slightly above average when not dropping and well below average when he does drop.

Where do you get this? I don’t see that at all. His completion percentage is his completion percentage – drops and all.

In short, what RDO has done here is not provide a cumulative stat that exonerates our receivers

It wasn’t my intention to exonerate anybody. Instead, I was trying to focus on completions instead of drops – that is, on success instead of failure. Nobody’s arguing that drops are OK – they surely aren’t – but by focusing on them, we lose sight of the big picture. As far as the Chiefs are concerned, the big picture is that Mark Bradley was the worst receiver on the team. So he’s gone. Good.

John

"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"

by RDOGuy on Jan 3, 2010 11:49 AM CST up reply actions

“I’s actually a very nice grading method for how receivers are doing when not dropping passes.”

You’re right…it doesn’t take into consideration drops at all. Good performance in this area is an indication that a receiver is doing a good job of getting open and making tough catches. It’s not a stat for grading drops at all. It’s a stat for grading non-drop performance.

“For example, Bowe is peforming slightly above average when not dropping and well below average when he does drop.”

In completion differential, Bowe is 38th..slightly above average. In drop ratio he’s 5th…well below average.

“In short, what RDO has done here is not provide a cumulative stat that exonerates our receivers”

I know it wasn’t your intention. The point of that comment is to help others understand that Bowe’s performance in completion differential does not in any way excuse his horrible performance in drop ratio.

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KCSatchmo on Jan 3, 2010 12:08 PM CST up reply actions

It's a good post

we’re on the same page. Just have to get the non-metric inclined to understand what it all means.

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KCSatchmo on Jan 3, 2010 12:09 PM CST up reply actions

Is sasquatch stirring thing's up again? lol

by krayfish on Jan 3, 2010 1:59 PM CST reply actions

Very good, RDO

I do still have one disagreement. You say the following: “What, exactly, is a dropped pass? It’s an incompletion. Nothing more, and nothing less.” I assume that isn’t what you meant. A drop is different from just an incompletion in that the ball was deemed to be catchable. It doesn’t include overthrows, underthrows, or other misses. Typically the ball hits the receiver. It does include some judgement, and Haley has made the statement that he thought that KC’s drops were undercounted, and that we were worse than what is published by his own measurements (not surprising – and probably true for most coaches).

I don’t think the reaction to the drops, and Bowe’s in particular, have much of anything to do with Cassel and what people hope to see from him. It’s because these drops have hurt us tremendously this season, and as stated above, that a WR is supposed to really break out in his 3rd season. Bowe needs to step up his game. It can be done. Most people seem to forget that Tony G was getting the same complaints about his game his first couple of seasons because he dropped some easy stuff and made hard catches. Obviously Tony overcame the problem by working hard so that most people don’t even remember that about him. Bowe needs to be a professional and do the same.

-"A man may be a fool and not know it, but not if he is married." - H.L. Mencken

by Big Chief on Jan 3, 2010 3:40 PM CST reply actions

hey nate washington made the list !!! us titan fans call him T-REX cause he has trex arms when it comes to strecthin for the ball ..most of the balls drop from nate cause it looks like he cant stretch his arms out infront of him! LOL

by TattedTI on Jan 7, 2010 2:17 PM CST reply actions