It Really Doesn't Matter Who The Chiefs Draft at #5
by Matt Conner on Jan 18, 2010 11:54 AM CST
in 2009 Kansas City Chiefs Campaign
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PrintThe more I look at NFL history and the picks most likely to fall at the top of this upcoming draft, the more I'm convinced there's not one "must have" player for the Chiefs at number five. That's not to say that there aren't future Hall of Famers, Pro Bowlers or superstars in this draft. On the contrary, the early looks of several guys have me salivating to see them in a Chiefs uniform for a long time. And with several early draft picks, we're likely to pick up some real gems (or here's hoping).
But what I mean to say is: look at the playoff teams left and the players that have taken them there. Everyone is talking up Darrelle Revis and rightfully so. His ability to single-handedly counter a team's best wide receiver is mindblowing and he's still so young. The Jets are riding Revis' ability straight to the second round and doing so with a rookie quarterback. So perhaps that means a super-shutdown corner like Florida's Joe Haden is the way to go.
Yet one look at the Steelers recent triumphs places safety Troy Polamalu squarely in the spotlight. The recognizable hair and all-out playing style seemed to catapult the Steelers straight to the Super Bowl. With that in mind, you'd think a safety like Eric Berry is worthy of the top five pick and would be ideal for the Chiefs.
More after the jump
Then again, think of the recent Super Bowl champion New York Giants roster. They largely won with their much-celebrated defensive line and it's incredible talent and depth. They could rush the passer from either side and continued to put fresh bodies in on third down and late in the game. The games are often won in the trenches, so what if the Chiefs could trade up for Ndamukong Suh. After all, even with several high picks on the d-line, the addition of Suh would surely put us over the top in dominating the defensive front.
Then again, protecting the QB has to be priority one after getting a QB and that's exactly what we did last year with the Matt Cassel addition. Therefore Russell Okung is a logical choice and a safe bet for our top five pick. Most have us picking Okung for a reason and the Chiefs could certainly use better pass protection.
The bottom line is that you can make a case for many players. Yet each year, the team at the top usually wins in all kinds of ways - from St. Louis' powerful offenses under Mike Martz to the dominating defense of the teams above. It's not about drafting a certain kind of player, but instead having coaches who can make the players that you do have prosper. So no matter who we choose, it's really about having guys like Todd Haley, Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel get those players into the right schemes and positions.
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+1
We need, and may have, good coaches for our average players.
although
I think I want Berry, or that LB from ’bama. OL is deep. We can get someone early second round.
+1 Matt...look here's the deal as Krayfish see's it.
I could care less who they draft. I don’t care. I do not care at all! The reason? Simple. You can draft a number one overall guy and he can fail as easily as a 7th round pickup at QB can go on to win 3 SB’s (so far).
I’m not attached to a name. I’m attached to results. Plain and simple. I don’t care if they draft Pocahontas. If she comes in and makes an impact and starts helping us to win, I’m for it. I don’t like getting too attached to name’s. Name’s don’t win games.
Players do. So as long as we get a player that can help us out, the rest does not matter to me one bit.
In fact I’d much rather see us underpay a hidden gem in the rough picked up in later rounds than overpay some useless bump on a log who comes in completely over rated.
It’s SO difficult to peg college players correctly. They aren’t playing against other NFL caliber players. So it turns out that there’s pretty much just as much chance of snagging a great player later on than sooner on. Many guy’s excel in college because their playing against other guy’s who are still kids and wet behind the ears. Not all can make that transition to the NFL and be successful with it.
Just get us some playmakers regardless of who or what round Pioli. Get us some stars!
Tom Brady was a 6th rounder
But I see your point.
To me, the best scouting is just watching a player play. Having not seen most college football players play, it is hard for us as fans to make accurate determinations.
And even then, it's a full-time job discounting for the impact of surrounding and opposing talent.
Ryan Sims was a classic example of a guy who looked like a beast rushing up the middle, but who played on a d-line where Julius Peppers was rightfully drawing the extra blockers.
And with a handful of highly touted “Me” players dragging down their teams, attitude, work ethic, and intelligence count for a lot. I LOVE those “attitude picks” in the 5th and later, and let’s keep in mind that Tom Brady was WAY slow in his decision-making, until he had a break-through the offseason before he took the starting job from Bledsoe. Prior to that, his evals were all “not-ready-for-the-NFL.” Prior to that, he was just a smart, young kid, with wideset eyes and Joe Montana chicken-legs.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
I've actually got Sacajawea rated higher than Pocahantas
‘The Sac’ is a monster on special teams, great hands, has terrific upside and Pro Bowl potential— we just gotta pull the trigger if she falls to us.
I was just asking Bewsaf about moving up to get Suh
Does anyone have any idea of the precedent from moving up from the fifth (or close) 1-4 spots to get a player? What has it cost?
Giants didn't move up
but they did trade Rivers for Eli… and it cost them a ton.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
According to the chart
If we had to move from #5 to #1 to get Suh, it would cost us both our second round picks and a third round pick
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670
There is a 1300 point value difference between #1 overall and #5 overall
Ryan Succop will be the kicker for the AFC in the 2011 Pro Bowl
That or something similar.
But that’s pretty much the starting point of any trading discussions.
That being said, I think we oughta be more about trading down.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
I think Mark Sanchez is benefiting the Chiefs
When other NFL teams see a rookie QB having the recent success as Sanchez this year, Flacco last year and Roethlisberger a few years ago, it makes all struggling teams want to find “their guy”. Cleveland held the #5 pick last year and when Sanchez was available and the Jets made an offer to move up and grab him. If either Clausen or Bradford is still available when we’re on the clock at #5 (which is a very good possibility), you have to assume that at least one team will be looking to climb up a few spots to grab a QB…especially with Seattle sitting 6th and also having an extra 1st round pick, thus allowing them to use their 6th pick as a luxury pick and grab a QB for the future opposed to a more urgent need.
If Cleveland, Oakland or Buffalo wants to move ahead of Seattle, then we’d be a great trading partner for them and we could sure use the extra early 3rd round pick…or Josh Cribbs lol!
Good point.
Seattle might lust after QB. So might Washington, although they’re pretty high, already.
I think we all pretty much agree that this draft is probably more deep than it is top-heavy. Even though I have a lotta love for great DBs, because of how much field they take away, and how they free the DC to send 5 or 6 or 7 without givin’ away the farm down the field. The great DB also frees you up to blitz from more angles out of more milling- or vanilla-type pre-snap looks. You can Milly-Vanilly offenses. “It LOOKED like they were really singing! I swear!”
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Lets say that TB of DET take Berry and Suh is off the board.
If WAS decided to go with Okung we could be in a good spot to trade out.
A man who says he can, and a man who says he can't are both right. Which one are you?
I've seen some mocks that have us taking Balauga at that spot.
Not everybody sees Okung as the #1 tackle in this draft. About all I’m gathering from the conversations is that NONE of the top tackles really belongs in the top 5. Doesn’t mean we won’t take one. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see it be a guy who’s more of a sure thing as a RT that can be COUNTED on, than a LT, who is neither fish nor fowl in the NFL.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
When looking at DBs in this draft, one thing I'm interested in from the Combine is their strength.
One thing that makes Revis and Flowers special, and made Hasty so much fun to watch, was how STRONG they are/were. These are the kinds of guys who are quick and strong enough, so that the stiff-arm is just another body-part within reach, that these kinds of players will just GRAB and throw the ballcarrier to the turf.
But I tend to agree with the whole premise of this article. While I lean toward the big men, if I HAVE to pay 1st-round prices, a LB who can play big in pass-rush and is a step quicker than any LB has a right to be, and a smart player, THAT allows me to do different things out of the same looks on D.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Joe Haden
That’s exactly what I have been thinking. I really think this guy is going to shoot up our board after the workouts and eventually will be the pick.
To me, it depends on how physically he can play at the line.
Being only 5’11’’, this is a key consideration. And it also relates to his durability when he’s expected to tackle. Playing with that kind of power and aggression is essential, but it also kept Brandon Flowers hovering on the edge of IR with a bad shoulder.
That being said, the main thing the secondary is missing is elite speed in coverage. But a lot can be done to tip the balance in KC’s favor by their continuing to look for those diamonds in the 2nd-3rd-4th, year in and year out.
At the time, I thought the Bartee’s and Wesley’s were those kinds of picks, but the 5’11’’ guy who can actually COVER seems to be more productive in today’s NFL than the 6’1’’ or 6’2’’ guy who looks more prototypical, on paper. One thing I learned from King Carl is trying to be forward-looking on size alone in the DB category will have you playing soft zone behind your blitz all day, and driving Texas Chief crazy with all the wide-open receivers in the shallow middle.
I disagree with TC on this being a problem with the LBs (although I can’t say they were GREAT in coverage). To me, it’s more an issue of not trusting the secondary to come up and hit people in the mouth, and not being able to develop pressure quickly enough. BOTH are more DL- and DB-related than LB-related. Sure, maybe once the DL and DB groups are all fixed up, it becomes clear that a dominant LB is in order, but my sense is that if you pick generally good LBs, with a tilt toward football IQ, you make your team a mecca for LBs, and use that position group to generate 2nd-rounders for you, once the league falls in man-love with them.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Haden is an exceptional tackler
and very good in run support. (For a CB) The guy is the complete package.
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KCSatchmo on Jan 18, 2010 3:49 PM CST up reply actions
Yup. But hand and upper body strength are pretty important, especially if you're contemplating blowin' a #1.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
We all
need to relax on Flowers a bit too. I think he’s good, but the bottom-line is that we are still 30th in the league in pass defense and everyone in the secondary gets blame for that for now.
Disagree a bit here
Flowers played good ball this year….period.
It doesnt matter who your cornerbacks are
if you cant rush the other team’s QB. Even Champ Bailey and Darrell Revis cant cover for 8 seconds. I like Haden too, but Flowers and Carr are good enough to win with. An improved pass rush and some safety help will only make these two guys better.
Agreed
Revis benefitted a lot from Rex Ryan’s blitzing
A man who says he can, and a man who says he can't are both right. Which one are you?
Yes, and the blitz and 4-man rush benefited greatly from what Revis does.
There were times when Rivers did get a chance to set up and survey the field and nobody was open.
Something I noticed in that game was the Revis wasn’t necessarily 1-on-1 with Jackson, but just as likely to be singled up on somebody else, and the coverage elsewere would roll to Jackson. But Revis also singled-up a few times. Bottom line is that Revis gave them those kinds of options, and Flowers would give the Chiefs similar options, although what I did see of Revis on Jackson was of significantly higher quality than what Flowers did against #83.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
I started saying last year
that the Chiefs can pick any position (except for special teams) and draft there and improve the team, assuming it was draft-position appropriate to do so.
This year, I say we can STILL draft any position in the first and improve the team, same caveats-with the addition of not picking a QB.
We really can’t mess this up as long as we dont’ draft a QB, Kicker, TE, or FB in the first. Everything else is a go.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
Sad but true.
I would also consider DE to be in that category as well. It would simply be a waste with so many other needs
A man who says he can, and a man who says he can't are both right. Which one are you?
Even DE, if he is THE MAN.
If it’s a clear upgrade (unlikely), you can always trade the lesser player away. You never want to miss on a Charles haley, Russel Maryland, Julius Peppers, … if one comes your way, and if you think you SEE such, you should take ‘em. For instance, if you believed the early hype on Mt. Cody, throwing a #5 pick at him wouldn’t be out of the question.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Agree very much in principle
If you lose enough to be near the top of the draft’s first round, then it’s incumbent to look at the top prospects and if they allow a ‘clear upgrade’ don’t be afraid to make that move. I’d say that’s especially true re three recent first-round picks: Bowe, Dorsey and Albert.
if there’s anything at all substantive about the ‘Patriot Way’ it should be a complete, unsentimental look at the present KC roster and who could be replaced at a reasonable price with good likelihood of improved team play. If you can avoid the ‘locked in’ roster even when you draft people in the top 10 three years in a row, that’s a terrific accomplishment.
But I’m still pessimistic that Cody will be anywhere close to good value as #5 pick.
Me, too.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
McClain or Berry is a must have!
You must be smoking. Our defense was terrible! McClain and Berry are must haves for a rebuilding defense. Crennel needs more pieces he said so himself. McClain is the best LB in the draft and Berry is the best Safety. We need one…I prefer McClain but would take either.
"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden
by Matt_Grbac on Jan 18, 2010 1:09 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Good post
I agree with most of you. Suh, Berry, or McClain should fall to us, each being critical needs by position. Name isn’t so important, but a starter that becomes a key playmaker is key.
I smell
Berries and Flowers… I don’t mean to go soft on all of you but come on!! You can’t go wrong with a Berry and some Flowers together. It’s so nice…so perfect.
There's one thing that all of this discussion is ignoring...
which is that if there is one thing Pioli showed us in last year’s first round, it is that he isn’t afraid to take a guy that nobody else has on their radar at that draft position. We can argue all day about team need, or the stats, physical prowess of guys X, Y and Z – but in the final analysis, it seems pretty clear that Pioli considers a player’s attitude and work ethic to be of at least equal (or greater) importance than all these other factors. None of us have the first clue how any of these guys will look in Pioli’s eyes.
John
"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"
And I'm pretty much OK with that, as long as there's a sprinkling of mad physical talent across the roster.
But I don’t think it’s been ignored in this discussion.
And Tyson Jackson WAS mentioned by numerous calmer and wiser heads, who looked and didn’t see many 3-4 DEs on the roster, and they knew Pioli’s history. I wasn’t one of them. I was all about Ron Brace or Eugene Monroe, even though the Tyson Jackson types pretty much backed it up with facts, so I was open to that idea.
Main thing I remember about last spring was not wanting to rebuild around Eric Curry, but to maybe bring a high-dollar LB in after the trenches were addressed on both sides of the ball.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
I still feel kinda the same way, this time about Rolando McClain.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Agreed
There’s a ton of info on these guys that we will never see, that could red flag them and make the real draft board look quite different from all the stuff rolling around on the internet. e.g., It’s great shorthand to call Berry ‘another Ed Reed’ but in fact everyone’s different when you look at a detailed level, and that’s what those guys get paid to do.
The one thing we have going for us
Is if there hasn’t been a QB taken or only one has been taken. At that point, someone could move WAY up to grab one like the Jets did last year. We can move down a few slots, get our guy there, and have more picks to reload our team.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
I still think Berry would be the best choice if he is available...
So you think you are so important that no one can replace you? Put your finger in a bucket of water and pull it out. Does it leave a hole? Nope, just some ripples that eventually calm themselves!
by Fan of the Red And Gold on Jan 18, 2010 4:25 PM CST reply actions
That's the way it looks, although I'd be more enthusiastic if the comparisons were to Polamalu or Woodson...
Reed, it seems to me, is less pure coverage guy and more wily QB-eye-reader, which is great, but …
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Me too
Berry is not a coverage guy. He will basically be replacing what we had in Pollard before we cut him.
That's not what I've read about him. I thought he had some decent coverage skills, but yeah,
I don’t think we need another Pollard as much as we need a guy with coverage skills and ball skills. I think this Berry has mad ball skills and I think some have said that he can line up and cover somebody. But if he’s just a mini-LB, I’m not nearly as high on him.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Right now I'm OK with Berry or McClain at 5 if KC is stuck there
They both offer good potential for team improvement, I’d let the scouts and Pioli et al sort it out for the top of the board. I agree that Berry won’t fall as far as McClain might drift. Moving toward the top of the draft? Suh is that only one I’d go in that direction to get, and like others have pointed out, the price would be so high…. given the talent-poor situation for this team, might not be a good choice.
A trade down with a team needing a QB sounds appealing in theory, but I wouldn’t want to fall so far that McClain is out of the picture, and I’d want to pick up at least another 2nd round pick, or the equivalent.
Thing about a McClain is I bet that getting a NT and a beast of a rush OLB would do more to upgrade us at ILB than
even upgrading ILB directly…
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Picking Berry
would be a great addition to the Chiefs during the draft not only are you getting a great safety he can also play coner. So we have the chance to take a person who can play dual positions.
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