FanPost

The Great Debate

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No, its not the debate between capitalism or socialism.  And no Kanye West, it is not the debate on who should have won the Best Female Video Award.  The debate, the big inquiry, the burning question...is what position should the Chiefs look to upgrade when drafting at #5 this year?

Don't stop reading yet.

I think that all of us at AP want the Chiefs to upgrade the position that would most affect our team in 2010.  We want "Bang" for our buck.  If that is the case...then lets look at how each drafted position, as a group, influenced the offensive or defensive rankings for their teams since 2000.

This post will look at the top seven draft picks since 2000 from every team at the positions of inside linebacker, offensive tackle, defensive safety, and wide receiver.  We will look at how each position, as a group, influenced the offensive or defensive rankings for their teams the first year they played and how those numbers compared to the previous year.

Hopefully we can glean some information from this analysis.

Hear we go...

Their has been an increased interest at AP in taking Rolando McClain, ILB, with the #5 pick in the NFL draft.  These individuals seem to like his football IQ, work habits, and all around ability.  There is no doubt that the Chiefs need to upgrade their linebackers...but how has previous linebackers drafted at #1-#7 affected their teams in the first year.

                                    LINEBACKERS


PLAYER YEAR # PIC
Pass Rnk Prior
Pass Rnk After Rush Rnk Prior Rush Rnk After
Aaron Curry
2009
#4
32nd
30th
18th
15th
A.J. Hawk
2006
#5
1st
17th
23rd
13th
Lavar Arrington
2000
#2
26th
2nd
26th
22nd

 

Disclaimer:  Many things affect rushing and passing rankings:  New coaches, free agents, new schemes.  However, positions of greater affect may cut through, or out weigh, these other variables consistently.   If the stat's affects are inconstant across players then this might indicate that the affect of drafting that particular position has an overall low (or inconsistent) impact on the team in the first year.

Observations from the linebacker analysis:

  • Not many linebackers have been taken in the top seven picks.
  • 33% of the time there was improvement (green), 17% of the time there was a regression (yellow), and 50% of the time there was a benign affect [(no color) I have chosen a rank increase of 6 or more to be considered a statistically significant affect)] .
  • All of these linebackers played OLB in the 4-3 at the pro level the first year.  Not one actually played ILB.
  • It would appear that the affect these players had on the rushing and passing rankings was inconsistent.

                              OFFENSIVE TACKLES


PLAYER YEAR # PIC
Sacks Prior
Sacks After Rush Rnk Prior Rush Rnk After
Andre Smith
2009
#6
51
29
29th
9th
Jake Long
2008
#1
42
26
23rd
11th
Joe Thomas
2007
#3
54
19
29th
27th
Levi Brown
2007
#5
35
24
30th
29th
D. Ferguson
2006
#4
53
34
31st
20th
Robert Gallary
2004
#2
43
30
16th
32nd
Mike Williams
2002
#4
46
54
22nd
24th
Bryant McKinnie
2002
#7
47 49 25th 1st
Leonard Davis
2001
#2
35
29
27th
27th
Chris Samuels
2000
#3
31
32
9th
19th

 

Disclaimer:  Many things affect rushing and passing rankings:  New coaches, free agents, new schemes.  However, positions of greater affect may cut through, or out weight, these other variables consistently.   If the stat's affects are inconstant across players then this might indicate that the affect of drafting that particular position has an overall low (or inconsistent) impact on the team in the first year.

Observations from the offensive lineman analysis:

  • There has been a lot of tackles taken in the top 7 picks.
  • 50% of the time there was improvement (green), 20% of the time there was a regression (yellow), and 30% of the time there was a benign affect (no color)
  • In a majority of the cases it can be said that sack totals went down drastically.  Especially in more recent years.

                                DEFENSIVE SAFETY


PLAYER YEAR # PIC
Pass Rnk Prior
Pass Rnk After Rush Rnk Prior Rush Rnk After
LaRon Landry
2007
#6
23rd
16th
27th
4th
Sean Taylor
2004
#5
14th
7th
24th
2nd

 

Disclaimer:  Many things affect rushing and passing rankings:  New coaches, free agents, new schemes.  However, positions of greater affect may cut through, or out weight, these other variables consistently.   If the stat's affects are inconstant across players then this might indicate that the affect of drafting that particular position has an overall low (or inconsistent) impact on the team in the first year.

Observations from the defensive safety analysis:

  • Not many NFL teams take a safety with picks #1-#7 (sample size is small).
  • The only team to take a safety in the first seven pics was the Redskins.  They made both selections.
  • 100% of the time there was improvement (green), 0% of the time there was a regression (yellow), and 0% of the time there was a benign affect (no color)
  • In both cases the rushing and passing rank significantly improved.

                                   WIDE RECEIVERS


PLAYER YEAR # PIC
Pass Rnk Prior Pass Rnk After Overall Rnk Prior Overall Rnk After
Heyward-Bey
2009
#7
32nd
29th
29th
31st
Calvin Johnson
2007
#2
7th
9th
22nd
19th
Braylon Edwards
2005
#3
25th
23rd
28th
26th
Troy Williamson
2005
#7
23rd
26th
24th
27th
Larry Fitzgerald
2004
#3
23rd
24th
27th
27th
Roy Williams
2004
#7
24th
23rd
32nd
24th
Charles Rogers
2003
#2
25th
24th
28th
32nd
Andre Johnson
2003
#3
32nd
29th
32nd
31st
Peter Warrick
2000
#4
23rd
31st
15th
29th

 

Disclaimer:  Many things affect rushing and passing rankings:  New coaches, free agents, new schemes.  However, positions of greater affect may cut through, or out weight, these other variables consistently.   If the stat's affects are inconstant across players then this might indicate that the affect of drafting that particular position has an overall low (or inconsistent) impact on the team in the first year.

Observations from the wide receiver analysis:

  • There has been a lot of teams select a wide receiver with picks #1-#7.
  • 5% of the time there was improvement (green), 11% of the time there was a regression (yellow), and 84% of the time there was a benign affect (no color)
  • We might be confident in saying the affects on the team by a wide receiver taken in the first seven picks is minimal in the first year.

So there you have it!  If you are looking for the Chiefs to select a player that produces the most "bang" for the buck the next year...then you might want KC to stay away from wide receivers with their #5 pick.

It appears to me that the affects of a linebacker at #5 is unknown (and that might be the rub) due to the inconsistency of the affect.  But then again, maybe we can glean some info from the fact that not very many linebackers, no ILBs, have been selected in the top seven picks.  Maybe the consensus for most GMs is that you can get a game changing linebacker at lower picks.  Maybe they are not worth the cost at #5.

Based on the analysis above, I would suggest that the Kansas City Chiefs select an offensive lineman or a defensive safety with their #5 pick.  Only if they want a quick bang for their buck, of course.

In my mind...the debate is now between Okung and Berry.

How about you?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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