Taking a Look at the Kansas City Chiefs Play Calling
I'm a stats guy. I love refuting people's assumptions or perceptions with pure fact.
A great example of that was when Herm Edwards was around, something his/his OC's play calling being Run, Run, Pass, Punt came into popular use in the fanbase. When you looked at the stats, this statement had zero proof. Herm and his OCs mixed up it between the run and pass at about an average level.
Which is why we're going to do our best to bring you the play calling stats for the Kansas City Chiefs after each game. After the jump, I've posted what they call a Play Propensity report. In other words, what the Chiefs called in certain situations.
I read quite a few comments that Todd Haley was conservative in this first game with his play call and I'd tend to agree. Not super conservative but Haley was far from airing it out. I get the feeling like he's chomping at the bit to unleash some of his better offensive ideas.
jmcgoblue had similar thoughts on game day:
"It worked out pretty bad early, but I can’t blame Haley for keeping it conservative in this situation. If he’d opened up the offense & Suggs was able to tee off on Croyle forcing 3 INTs, we’d be complaining about that too. Now if the offense is still playing conservative four weeks from now, and it still ain’t working, I’ll be as POd as anyone."
Exactly. I can wait a week (or two) for Haley to get his play calling together but come October, we better be up to speed.
Let's take a quick at the run/pass stats by quarter to see if Haley went with the run or pass more as time went on:
- Q1 - 5 pass, 4 rush
- Q2 - 3 pass, 8 rush
- Q3 - 2 pass, 3 rush
- Q4 - 14 passes, 5 rush
It was clear that Todd Haley never believed much in the Chiefs' running game, as he shouldn't have. 24 yards rushing through three quarters will make you forget about running the ball.
Before you jump over, I want to point out some of the more interesting (or not) things I got out of last week's play propensity report.
- 1st down and 10 was split 50/50 between run and pass calls
- 2nd down is a heavy passing down for Haley
- 2nd down and between 6-8 yards to go were all runs though
- 3rd down was a pass heavy down (as it probably should be)
The most fun part about these stats is when we see them accumulate over the season and watch patterns develop. The stats, after the jump...
First Down |
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| Yards to Go | % Rushing Plays, All | % Passing Plays, All | % Rushing Plays, Red Zone | % Passing Plays, Red Zone | % Rushing Plays, Goal to Go | % Passing Plays, Goal to Go |
| 2 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| 6 | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 10 | 50.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Second Down |
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| Yards to Go | % Rushing Plays, All | % Passing Plays, All | % Rushing Plays, Red Zone | % Passing Plays, Red Zone | % Rushing Plays, Goal to Go | % Passing Plays, Goal to Go |
| 1 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 50.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| 6 | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Third Down |
||||||
| Yards to Go | % Rushing Plays, All | % Passing Plays, All | % Rushing Plays, Red Zone | % Passing Plays, Red Zone | % Rushing Plays, Goal to Go | % Passing Plays, Goal to Go |
| 4 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 50.00% | 50.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fourth Down |
||||||
| Yards to Go | % Rushing Plays, All | % Passing Plays, All | % Rushing Plays, Red Zone | % Passing Plays, Red Zone | % Rushing Plays, Goal to Go | % Passing Plays, Goal to Go |
| 9 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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I think he was conservative by design
You can’t go into Baltimore and start airing it out with an inexperienced backup.. before you know it the game could be over.
exactly
Haley customized the game plan to who we were playing to give the Chiefs the best chance to win, as he should have. He will do that each and every week. Our team may be run oriented one week and pass oriented the next, depending on who we play in order to expose our opponent’s weakenesses.
That is what Haley referred to at the end of the game, that he tod his guys this would be an ugly game…he undterstood this was the only way Chiefs would have a chance to win. And it worked….we were in it until 2:06 to go.
Exactly
Flacco misses on the 30 yard pass and all the sudden the Ravens are looking at a ~50 yard fieldgoal with a kicker who has already missed a ~45 yarder. He misses again and now the chiefs are in good field position with two minutes to go.
I’m not wearing rosecolored glasses, just stating that our mistake free offensive game kept us in game until the very end.
by Scaryclouds on Sep 15, 2009 9:26 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
+1
It came down to one defensive play we didnt make. One that Flowers probably does make. Considering the circumstance they did enough to stay in the game but a little more aggression on offense sooner is going to be needed going forward.
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
by GenericBrand on Sep 15, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Agreed. He was trying to get their nose bloody
before he let go the steeds of… er… the apocolypse ?
If you watch the early parts of the game closely, you can tell the Chiefs were hyped up pretty good on both sides of the ball. Haley was just trying to get them settle in and focusing on assignment.
I think he’s going to be a much better head coach than I ever would have dared to dream. He has his guys peaking on game day, and very ready to play. It’s also pretty obvious how well-designed his game plan for the Blackboids was too. The guys were in this game until the last two ugly minutes.
Also
the fact that we stuck witht he run for so long helped open up for the passing game. It paid off when we were still close and hit that 50 yard bomb to Bradley. The threat that we might run, however pitiful the outcoem might be, probably helped open things up for that drive.
It is easy to say that we should have been passign the entire time but if we had given up on the running game too early I don’t know if that drive would have happened. Remember at the end of the game when the Ravens knew for sure we were passing they were all over tha back field.
I think the game plan was pretty solid with a back up QB vs. a top 5 D.
I expect to see a more agressive approach this week. Especially if Cassel plays.
D-Bowe, Mark Bradley, Bobby Engram and Turtle. Four Chiefs WRers. 4 Pro Bowlers.
Very good point Patrick
I think Haley called a good game for the situation we were in. I am even more impressed Haley than I was before. As most fans know, Croyle doesn’t handle the pressure or real games very well, so Haley calls a very safe game, do some runs, short passing plays and hope the defense can keep us close. Then once Croyle got settled down he opened it up a little more.
This game showed me Haley is a very good coach, he seen the last preseason game when you ask to much from Croyle he falls apart, so he called the game that gave us the best chance to win. We will see a different game plan when Cassel is in there.
Herm is gone things are better with that one move!!
by bringbacktheglory on Sep 15, 2009 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
context for Herman
“When you looked at the stats, this statement had zero proof. Herm and his OCs mixed up it between the run and pass at about an average level.”
But for the last half of the last season, Gailey put in a spread offense that was designed to throw the ball. This pushes up the average number of pass attempts in Herman’s tenure, even though it clearly wasn’t the way he preferred to play the game.
More importantly, in the last two years of Herman’s tenure, we were behind a LOT, so we had to throw more often to try to get back in the game. This also pushes up the number of pass attempts. Herman didn’t choose to throw the ball an average amount, he was forced to do so way more often than he would’ve preferred. When people were talking about RRPP, it was usually early in the game, when Edwards would try power runs up the middle behind our weak OL, which the defense knew was coming.
After we’d inevitably fall behind, the pass attempts would come, pushing up his percentage to average.
A team who lost as much as KC did under Herman, which used the spread for his last half season, should have way more than an average number of pass attempts, but Herman didn’t, because he was so conservative.
by Offense of the 70s on Sep 15, 2009 8:37 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Just wondering
I’ve noticed that a lot of our posts analyze how we play, what our weaknesses are, what our strengths are, and in this particular case play calling. I fully understand that a professional football employee (player, coach, scout) is perfectly capable (more so than we are in most all cases) of figuring this out, but what if opponents have scouts purposefully get on other teams websites like this one and find strategies like this that is already in print. They will then use our own info against us. If this is the case, then we are giving our opponents a better advantage against us because we have so much more traffic than other site.
I also understand that a majority of the posts are opinions, but we back our opions with facts that we research. This “scout” that I am referring to would take most posts with a grain of salt, but we do consolidate important facts into a post. And since it is already printed that we can gather more info faster.
Please note that I am not trying to make a stab at you Chris for this particular post or any post by us all for that matter. But I was just wondering by us posting factual statistics like this that we aren’t giving our team that we love a crutch before the game even starts.
Big Gulps EH????? All right.....Welp....See Ya Later!
I'm thinking the pros already have this data and more
shouldnt’ be an issue
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
if it was, you can bet
the “don” Pioli would be here shutting that shit down
“never discuss family business with anyone outside the family”
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
They are not coming here to learn the inside scoop about the chiefs.
They have better info and people who are trained specifically to break down these tendencies by personell, formation and situations. As much as I would like to believe this site is better info than the teams have I doubt that is the case.
It would kind of be like Pioli firing our scouting staff and just coming to AP to find out what personel moves we should be making (on second thought maybe that is why Sackintosh is gone).
What a great thought!
We are probably auditioning for scouting jobs & just don’t know it & giving away all of these gems for nothing!! Oh well, its a team effort & maybe will leave them a little more money to get some O-line help!
:)
If they are learning the Chiefs secrets from us
they are in bigger trouble than we are.
Blame my wife!
Waiting until August!
fear
respecting a tough D is one thing, fearing it is another.
I thought, and please correct me if I’m wrong, that Haley seemed afraid to throw much at the Baltimore defense in the first half.
Play calling was vanilla and conservative.
Maybe he didn’t trust Croyle, maybe he didn’t trust the OL…
probably both
But, there are ways to attack an attacking defense…
screen passes, play action, quick slants, etc.
I would have like to have seen a more creative script with Charles getting the ball in space, and croyle on the bootleg, Lawrence in the game… etc.
But, I’m not the OC, so I don’t know what they were seeing out there. I just hope that he’s more creative vs the Raiders
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
He tried....
a couple of screens to charles…….they weren’t executed, and both were blown up at the line of scrimmage or for a loss. OL needs more time together and Brody telegraphs them pretty bad.
Haven’t had effective screen passing
since P. Holmes was playing.
by BCRavenJHawkfan on Sep 15, 2009 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions
I am so with you Stag.
I think you have to attack a defense like Baltimore. Show em you are’nt scared to throw on em. When you know you are outmatched on the line of scrimmage, you have to work around it. You can’t try to cram the ball down their throats when they have a CLEARLY superior line. Quick passing, bootlegs, lots of shotgun, that is how you spread a defense like theirs out and you HAVE to do it early.
And I am fine with a fairly conservative game plan except, when it doesn’t work your defense is on the field for 40 minutes and you can’t stop them in the end. Last time I checked, completed short passes keep the clock moving too.
by Chiefsfan1970 on Sep 15, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Bring back Eddie Kennison IMO
Don't Fuccop Succop
by chicks_love_chiefs on Sep 15, 2009 9:44 AM CDT reply actions
Not going to blame Haley for conservative play calling early against the Ravens.
First game as head coach, backup QB and playing a top 3 defense. He probably shouldve come out and punched them in the mouth but cant blame him for what he did. I think we overrespected the Ravens D badly but hopefully this weekend we come out a little more aggresive to keep the ball moving and give our defense half a chance to catch their breath.
"Success is never ending, failure is never final."
Play the cards your dealt
Not gonna nit-pick to much, as I feel he did what he could with what we have. Playing a top 5 NFL defense with a JV O-line is not the time to start calling plays that take time to develop down field. Hopefully this week we can find a way to get the ball to our skill players in space. Charles in particular. I still have no idea why we run a sweep on a 3rd and 8 against one of the faster defenses in the league. But as long as we can continue to show progress from week to week I will remain optimistic. Either way though, the sight of Haley dropping F-bombs and blowing an O-ring when someone makes a dumb mistake is a welcome change to the “pat on the butt, go get ’em next time” attitude I saw the last 2 seasons.
by BucktheFroncos on Sep 15, 2009 10:31 AM CDT reply actions
hehe
“jesus christ brodie, snap the fucking ball!”
I wasnt able to see the game, but a buddy of mine had that entire thing running on a loop on another website
by MarineChiefsFan on Sep 15, 2009 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't how conservative the play calling is
the defense had more yards on offense than our offense did till the 4th quarter, that should not happen.
Herm is gone things are better with that one move!!
by bringbacktheglory on Sep 15, 2009 10:51 AM CDT reply actions
I don't "care"
I hate when you just leave out a word
Herm is gone things are better with that one move!!
by bringbacktheglory on Sep 15, 2009 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Th wosrt thing about Haley’s gameplan was for the first seven 1st and 10’s in the game, we ran. Not until the 4th Quarter, at the 8:10 mark, did we pass on 1st down. That has to change, and I have faith it will change, because that’s not todd haley’s normal MO.
that's not true at all
they passed on first down on the second drive.
It wasn’t until the 9th offensive possession that they threw on first down again.
yikes
the play by play shows they went run-run-pass, something like 4 times in their first 7 possessions. sadly, one of the times when it actually made sense to try to pass was when they decided to run it on 3rd and 5.
i found this playcalling pretty uninspired, but maybe Haley was just afraid of what Croyle could (not) do
Thanks for the post Chris!
I’m not much on stats as there are way too many variables that can’t be included into the formula; however, these were very interesting #‘s to look at to begin to see Haley’s tendencies. Naturally every week & every situation will be totally different: different plays will be called depending on which QB is in, whom we’re playing, what is working & what isn’t.
Bottom line: I feel secure that Haley will be able to adapt & change tendencies upon what the situation dictates whereas I don’t think we’ve had that ability to do so recently! It was nice to not know exactly what we were going to run each play & I’m sure that will pay dividends going forward.
+1
And Chris, you had me at ’I’m a stats guy.’ lol
One thing that is important to realize is that employing statistics as generalizations has its limitations.
For instance, if one were to take this study to its absurd conclusion, one would want to see how Todd Haley calls 3rd and 4.36 yards on Monday night games on days he has mild stomach pains and is slightly pissed at Brian Waters.
It’s helpful to look at stats to see the big picture, but the limitations should be kept in mind.
CNN = ABC = NBC = CBS = FOX = Chris Mortenson Journalism
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I agree stats on 1 game are misleading
but if you take stats on multiple games it gives you a better picture.
Take Croyle this last game stats looked good, he played a safe no thrills QB. Hand off and short passes. But when you look at the stats in all of his games he looks terrible.
Herm is gone things are better with that one move!!
by bringbacktheglory on Sep 15, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Damn dude. you really hate Brodie huh?
Why don’t you just go to Arrowhead on a practice day and punch him in the gut…Maybe you’ll feel better.

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