Rational Exuberance: My Season Preview

The Chiefs kick off the season in 4 hours - and even though it looks like we're going to get smoked by the Ravens, I am genuinely excited.

I'm excited because I think we have a coach and GM who will settle for nothing less than a Superbowl.  They might never build a team as good as the 2003 Vermeil Chiefs, but they're going to go for it, even if it means taking huge risks (the Cassel trade) or flying in the face of convention (Haley's Arizona offenses would routinely go entire drives without handing the ball off because he knew their run game was awful and he didn't care what the local media thought).  It could totally backfire and they could end up going 6-10 for the next 5 years, but it's a welcome change of attitude for a club that seemed content to hover around 8-8 and a city that is too forgiving and too bored to protest.

Do I think we'll win 7 or 8 games like Football Outsiders prediction system does?  No.  The Vegas line of 6 wins seems more realistic given Cassel's injury and the pre-season struggles.  That's not great, but this isn't our year anyhow.  Even if the Patriots don't lay waste to everybody ala 2007, we'd still be looking at a wild-card game, likely on the road, followed by another road game against a very good team like the Steelers or Chargers and then ANOTHER road game against ANOTHER very good team.  Oh yeah, then we'd be looking at something scary like the Bears D or the Giants... everything.  

No, we are building for the future, which thank the football gods is only 2 or 3 years in the NFL.  If everything goes to plan, the 3-4 defense will be fully operational, Cassel will be an upper-tier NFL quaterback, and Pioli will have loaded down the roster with talent.

(sidebar: not to be a downer, but that last part is far from a sure thing.  The draft is a crap-shoot for every team, and it's not like the Patriots have an amazing record there.  They're great because they liked Tom Brady a little more than everyone else, they have a good coach, and they utterly ripped off a few clubs to get Moss and Welker.  Of course New England's front office deserves credit for those trades, for liking TB out of college, and for being competent in filling out the rest of the roster, but the odds are always going to be against that kind of crazy confluence of events happening again.)

Still, I feel good about the plan.  Gone is Herm, who was a terrible close-game coach.  Gone is Gunther and his "If the Jailbreak Blitz works 1 time in 10, then 'Yes!' it was worth it!!!!" attitude and his fixation on where best to scream from.

Sure, Haley seems like a jerk and Pioli was never 'the guy' in New England and those cautious Hunts are still running the show, but maybe that 2-14 season scared the owners and maybe Haley can recreate that offense and maybe Cassel has moxie and Tyson Jackson eats people and D. Bowe starts doing those speed drills from the Larry Fitzgerald Myoflex ads.  This is the National Football League and it looks like our Chiefs are finally playing for keeps.

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