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Previewing the Kansas City Chiefs 2009 Schedule: Week 10

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The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Oakland Raiders for the second time in the 2009 season on November 15th in what will hopefully be the final game of a series sweep for the Chiefs.  The teams face off prior to this in week two, where we predicted a 20-17 Chiefs victory.

Chris previewed the week two game here.

This game has the potential to be much more difficult than week because of one major factor (that I think will come to fruition at this point): Jeff Garcia replacing JaMarcus Russell.

Yes, Russell played better down the stretch in 2008 but Garcia, despite his recent lack of participation in camp, has been adamant that his plans for 2009 don't include riding the pine all season.  As a Chiefs fan, the insertion of Garcia into the starting line-up would not be a good thing.

Below, I take a look at a few of the aspects of the game I think will be important.  I'll end with a prediction (Hint: Good outcome for Chiefs fans).

Both teams coming off a bye week

The Raiders, like the Chiefs, will be coming off a bye-week in the November 15th match up, which means more preparation and time to heal injuries.  This is a good thing for the team by the Bay, right? 

Wrong.  You have to go back to the Raiders 2002 Super Bowl season for the last time they won coming off of a bye week.

The Chiefs haven't been much better, though. They last won off of a bye week in 2006 but their 2007 loss to the Packers following a bye week kicked off a string of nine straight losses to end the season.  In 2008, an early bye week didn't help them being destroyed by the Titans 34-10.

Star-divide

Turnover Differential

As bad as both teams were in 2008, they were able to stay in the black when it came to turnovers.  The Raiders were +1 which was good enough for 15th in the NFL.  The Chiefs, meanwhile, were +5 which put them at 8th in the NFL.

For the Chiefs, it's more likely that number will revert back to the statistical average.  Martin Manley at Upon Further Review argued that the Chiefs' turnover ratio was a fluke and what's more likely to happen next year is reverting to the mean which means the Chiefs won't be in as many games as they were in 2008 due to the good fortune of interceptions and fumbles.

The wildcard here is the new defense.  We have no idea how bad, or how good, the 2009 version of the Chiefs defense will be.

Raiders rush offense vs. Chiefs rush defense

The quarterback likely won't win this game for the Raiders.  For all the ineptitude in Oakland, they've got three pretty good running backs in Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush.  Those three helped the Raiders finish 10th in the NFL in yards per attempt.  Not bad, especially when you consider that JaMarcus Russell was a threat to no one to pass the ball.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, couldn't stop the run all year.  They finished 31st in yards per attempt.

Again, the wildcard is the 3-4 defense.  We just don't know how advanced it will be this year.

Quarterback advantage: Chiefs

The Raiders quarterback as of now and likely game one of the regular season is Russell.  He ended the season well completing over 66% of his passes in five of the final seven regular season games.  That's not a bad set of stats but the reality is that the sample size wasn't that big for each game.  His pass attempts in those five games of over 66%: 22, 11, 13, 25 and 21.

Kinda brings the "Russell finished the season playing great" argument down a little bit. 

Previous four games

Even though both teams will be coming off of a bye week, the Raiders could be on the downswing with four consecutive games against .500 or better teams:   Giants, Eagles, Jets and Chargers.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, will be coming off of a difficult, but not impossible, four game stretch: Cowboys, Redskins, Chargers and Jaguars.

Again, the Chiefs schedule isn't much easier, but we've got the tamer of the two NFC East teams.

Prediction: Chiefs 24 Raiders 10

The Chiefs defense is coming around and shows why they switched to the 3-4 with pressure on Russell/Garcia all day.

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Prayers are with you, to ensure you safety.

Just be safe and make it back to AP :)

"Larry Fitzgerald, move over because there's another young gun, and his name is Dwayne Bowe from Kansas City" - 2009 Cris Carter Hall of Fame WR

In Pioli We Trust! Right?

by KC Nate on Aug 18, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

As much as I would love to give a prediction

There are still too many question marks for me to make an opinion. Here are a few questions that I have right now:
1. How does this defense pressure the QB consistently and when do they start covering the short, quick, middle of the field passes?
2. Will Matt Cassel be able to open the field/playbook, or is this going to be an offense that relies on receivers to pick up YAC?
3. Where is our starting position on special teams going to look like?
4. Can the OL speed up their point of attack and keep defenders from turning it up field?

Obvious facts:
1. LJ will have close to 1,000. The guy was close last year with a crappy line and missed games.
2. Bowe catches close to 1,000 yards, and has the most TD’s of our receiving core
3. Cassel throws at least 15-16 TD’s.

Shake 'n' Bake

by Husker'n'Chief on Aug 18, 2009 10:32 AM CDT reply actions  

I'll counter your prediction

By this time, Russell WILL have lost his job to Garcia. Garcia will have a few weeks under his belt and he will be firmly in control of the Raider offense. They will be dangerous. In Oakland, this will be a very difficult game to win. You might want to rethink that QB advantage section. I agree with your intro, and I do think this scenario is more likely to happen than not. 24 – 10 is very liberal. I say we win, but it’s more likely to be a squeaker. I call Chiefs 21 – 17.

Braccae illae virides cum subucula rosea et tunica Caledonia-quam elenganter concinnatur!

by Buck'O on Aug 18, 2009 10:39 AM CDT reply actions  

lol

I’ll wreck your ass for that!

Braccae illae virides cum subucula rosea et tunica Caledonia-quam elenganter concinnatur!

by Buck'O on Aug 18, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions  

If only...

That’s great man. I’m going to have to remember that prediction come time for this game. If it’s anywhere close, I think we owe you some beer gloves.

by Archyrr on Aug 18, 2009 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

IMO....

It will be better to have Garcia as the Raiders QB, only because that would mean that Russell failed ( or is hurt). The Raiders would officially have the biggest bust this side of Ryan Leaf and be back to the drawing board for a franchise QB because Garcia is anything but a long term starting QB.

Lets hope the light never turns on for Russell and we are indeed game-planning for Garcia.

Go Chiefs

by chicks_love_chiefs on Aug 18, 2009 10:46 AM CDT reply actions  

NOT THIS YEAR

I hope Russell does decent enough for Al Davis to keep him next year!! Tebow, McCoy, and Bradford are in this years draft. I don’t want to see either of them with the Raiders, especially Bradford.

Big Gulps EH????? All right.....Welp....See Ya Later!

by XtaC69Chief on Aug 18, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

It wouldn't matter

Give him anyone of them. Point is, they are still the raiders.

"Larry Fitzgerald, move over because there's another young gun, and his name is Dwayne Bowe from Kansas City" - 2009 Cris Carter Hall of Fame WR

In Pioli We Trust! Right?

by KC Nate on Aug 18, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Point taken

Al Davis is the Boss/Satin/Helluva-Chiefs-Fan now.
Tom Cable will knock everyones sock off….or at least jack you in the face.
And Raider Players will get paid way too much.

Big Gulps EH????? All right.....Welp....See Ya Later!

by XtaC69Chief on Aug 18, 2009 7:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

I agree but disagree with the Garcia assessment.

If Garcia is in its a bad thing because it will mean the Raiders are winning. I honestly think that the only way Garcia plays is if the Raiders are in the hunt for the division and they need Garcia to put them over the hump.

Jamarcus wont get pulled if theyre losing or if the season gets to a point where playoffs are hopeless. At that point there is no point because then you might as well ride out the season with Jamarcus to really get an idea whether he’s going to be your guy going forward with nothing to lose because the games dont matter anyway.

At this point in the season I expect McFadden to be battling injuries again, Neal to be running out of football steam, DHB won’t even be seeing the field much and their run defense and olines will be just as awful as last year.

We havent lost in their house in 6 years and it doesnt start in week 10. Unless Garcia is playing then maybe…

"Success is never ending, failure is never final."

by GenericBrand on Aug 18, 2009 11:46 AM CDT reply actions  

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