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Talking Chiefs and Stats with Football Outsiders

Kansas City Chiefs coach Todd Haley watches morning practice during NFL football training camp in River Falls, Wis., Monday, Aug. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

More photos » by Orlin Wagner - AP

3 months ago: Kansas City Chiefs coach Todd Haley watches morning practice during NFL football training camp in River Falls, Wis., Monday, Aug. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

A few days ago, we were given an opportunity to check out the Chiefs section on Football Outsiders' 2009 Almanac.  If you're not familiar with FO, they're the sabermetrics of football.  They break the games and players down into insanely detailed statistics that help predict what a team, position group or player will do.

They are very good at what they do.  Check out the website to gain a better understanding of a few of the things they do.

If you're interested, here's a link to the FO Almanac 2009.  It's cheap and definitely something we're going to keep our eye on for the Chiefs upcoming season.

Below, we asked Bill Barnwell of FO five questions about the Chiefs this year ranging from Larry Johnson and the 'Curse of 370' to Turk McBride playing at linebacker.

The Chiefs ran a shotgun formation 63% of the time last year. What percentage do you expect them to run the shotgun this year after bringing in Matt Cassel?

I think somewhere around the same percentage of the time. Todd Haley used the shotgun 69 percent of the time in Arizona, and while Kansas City doesn't have the sort of receivers that Arizona did,

Cassel's comfortable working out of the shotgun from his days in New England. It was also where he did his best work; he had a 7.8% DVOA in the shotgun, but a 2.2% DVOA under center.

Star-divide

Despite the infamous F.O. "curse of 370," do you think Larry Johnson has a chance to make the Pro Bowl this season?

I think a far bigger concern would be the quality of the offensive line play in front of him. The line should be better than it was a year ago, and if the passing attack plays better, then Johnson should have more opportunities to run without having to break tackles behind the line of scrimmage.

Of course, the possibility exists that Johnson could also either get hurt or lose his job to Jamaal Charles. We're very high on Charles, who was far better than either Johnson or Kolby Smith a year ago. I think the chances of Johnson making it to the Pro Bowl are probably a little below that of Johnson losing his job to Charles altogether. So we'll see, I guess.

Will the loss of Tony Gonzalez (a) hurt much worse than anticipated; (b) be mitigated by Brad Cottam and others; (c) barely be remembered at the end of the season?

I think it really depends on how Todd Haley deploys his offense. He barely used a tight end in Arizona; they had a tight end on the field 58 percent of the time, while every other offense in the NFL had a tight end on at least 70 percent of plays. Obviously, that wouldn't have been the case if Gonzalez had been around, but Haley might have moved him to wideout; Gonzalez was essentially playing as a wideout in the Pistol, anyway.

I suspect that Haley won't call Cottam's number frequently enough to have him or any other tight end stand out. If the offense plays well, Gonzalez won't be missed, but if it doesn't, well, it's an easy scapegoat.

Does 2007 second round pick Turk McBride have a chance in KC?

I don't see how McBride will have an impact, personally. His body type isn't a good fit for the 3-4 -- at 275 pounds, he's too big to play outside linebacker, but far too small to play end, meaning that he'll have to diet down some to play OLB. He doesn't have any experience at linebacker, and he wasn't particularly effective at the position he had any experience at, defensive end.

I would say to take this as a cautionary tale and avoid spending second-round picks on players who weren't even starters in college, but, well, the Chiefs did the same exact thing in acquiring Matt Cassel.

You call the Chiefs' safeties Jarrad Page and Bernard Pollard "average." Should the Chiefs be looking to upgrade their safety positions anytime soon?

I think that (as I believe Scott Pioli also thinks) you build your team from the lines out. Safeties look better when there's an excellent front seven in front of them; it keeps offensive linemen off of them and allows them to roam to the ball, and in coverage, they don't have to stick on guys for more than a few seconds.

Considering the way the Chiefs defense has played over the past couple of years, I don't think average is a bad thing. I'd hold onto them for now, see if they develop any further, and worry about them next year at the earliest.

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All good points

Though I see no signs of our young safeties, or our secondary in general, slowing down. But as he said, that could all change with the line play. What’s great is that they’ve already shown that they can hold it down behind THE worst front 7 in NFL history.

"This aint Club Med, baby!"
"The pain train is comin!!!"
"WOOOOoooooo!"
-The Terrible Terry Tate

by ArrowSpread on Aug 14, 2009 4:23 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh my

They are little too high on Charles…I don’t see much chance of him taking the RB position altogether…the only I could picture would be a shift to RBs By Committee…or whatever

Strongly agree on McBride…he will be gone by week 6

by woodman212 on Aug 14, 2009 4:31 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I am with you on Charles.

He’s fast but, he cant take the beating of thirty carries in a game and he seems to have problems with fumbling. If used as a second back though, he may be one of the most electrifying players on the field.

McBride…Meh! I wish I wasn’t saying that because he looked pretty good before getting injured last season. I hope it works out but, I don’t expect it.

by Chiefsfan1970 on Aug 14, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Its not impossible for McBride...

I mean…if Matt Roth can play OLB for Miami…he is just as large at 275 but has some height on Turk…

by woodman212 on Aug 14, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe it's man-love, but I think McBride is better than folks think.

But I do tend to agree with the “average safeties” until proven otherwise. The way they were used reminds me of a couple other young safeties a few years back, who earned great praise, but rarely seemed to be trusted by the coaches, when the situation called for more aggressive play from the secondary.

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Aug 15, 2009 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

disagree

I don’t think he can handle 30+/game for a full season without breaking down pretty severely but that doesn’t mean he can’t be the feature back in a system. He’s already stated openly that he supports LJ but is gunning for the #1 spot on the depth chart and believe it or not, he’s got the talent to do it. He’ll be playing at 208 this season which will give him some more cushion to absorb hits with and will also make him strong enough to (hopefully) power through holes and tackles that would have sent him to the ground in the past.

20 carries a game for Charles is definitely feasible I think, especially if Williams or Battle pan out as a good “hammer” to Charles’ lightning. Throw in what we all hope is going to be a vastly improved passing game and those 20 carries become a much less physically-punishing task than even 10-15 a game would have been last year.

Bask in the glory that is Kwame Harris. Poor Alex...

by JHWK on Aug 14, 2009 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can usually trim a few pounds, like Marcus did at the end of his career.

But bulking-up is always questionable. It depends on the frame he has underneath. There’s a lot more to connective tissue than just muscle. Things like tendon and ligament injuries could become an issue, and there’s almost no way to tell in advance if a guy’s frame can handle the load that more muscle and a willing heart will put on it.

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Aug 15, 2009 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the chances of Johnson making it to the Pro Bowl are probably a little below that of Johnson losing his job to Charles altogether.

I do not know if I buy this. I think Charles will have an impact, but I don’t see him beating out LJ for the workhorse back.

by saskwatch on Aug 14, 2009 4:33 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Sort of agree...

It depends on what type of offense the Chiefs end up running. If it’s more of a traditional offense, then yeah, Charles will be Felix Jones to LJ’s Marion Barber. However, if they go back to the Arrowspread I can see Charles taking a more prominent role, since the spread opens up lots of lanes for a speedy, elusive back like Charles.

by cvigz on Aug 14, 2009 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Workhouse back

That is if we even NEED a workhorse back.

Haleys offense only ran the ball 20 carries a game last year.

by ChiefDJ on Aug 14, 2009 9:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just remember

1. Haley is letting Gailey call the plays this season. I’m sure he’ll have some influence, but I would be more apt to go by Gailey’s history than Gaileys for play ratio, especially considering #2 below.

2. KC has a vastly better corps of running backs than Arizona did last year, and Arizona had a vastly better WR corps than KC does this year. They were pretty lop-sided in terms of where the talent was on the offense. If you were the OC of Arizona, wouldn’t you have only carried 20 times a game?

Hailey and Gailey will cater the offense toward our strengths. Let’s just hope that we have some strengths show up in our passing game to balance out the load.

by Ochophosphate on Aug 15, 2009 2:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes...

Haley runs offenses based on what he has….

He had little running options last season, hence he didnt run it often…

It’s smart football, let’s not pigeon-hole him…(as fun as that sounds…mmmmm!)

by woodman212 on Aug 15, 2009 2:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure about your #2, Ocho.

Edge ‘n’ Hightower were pretty solid. I think the run-to-pass ratio will largely be the product of what the o-line can bring.

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Aug 15, 2009 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Charles

will get 3rd down work and spell LJ. He’ll see plenty of touches used in that capacity, IMO.

"This aint Club Med, baby!"
"The pain train is comin!!!"
"WOOOOoooooo!"
-The Terrible Terry Tate

by ArrowSpread on Aug 14, 2009 4:36 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Eh..

He’ll get some situational work too. Long second downs maybe where they could get him on space on some screens.

I think most organizations are moving away from using workhorse backs exclusively, and I don’t see ours doing any different. Especially in lieu of this last blunder in giving LJ this huge contract.

If Charles is ever to ursurp LJ’s starting role it will be when LJ produces and ups his trade value, and is subsequently traded. Or, he doesn’t produce at all, declines, and subsequently gets released. And I’m sure by that time, Pioli will already have his replacement waiting int he wings. Hopefully.

"This aint Club Med, baby!"
"The pain train is comin!!!"
"WOOOOoooooo!"
-The Terrible Terry Tate

by ArrowSpread on Aug 14, 2009 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Funny you should say that

About five minutes ago I canceled the following:

“Why does it seem like I’m having a conversation with myself. Weird.”

I suppose I should have went ahead and posted it instead of letting one of you call me out on it.

You got me this time….Newman.

"This aint Club Med, baby!"
"The pain train is comin!!!"
"WOOOOoooooo!"
-The Terrible Terry Tate

by ArrowSpread on Aug 14, 2009 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Be interesting to see how many backs they end up carrying.

LJ’s contract was a bit rich for MY blood. When the numbers get that high, I start thinking what I might do with a good all-around 3rd-rounder at HB and one or two good/better o-linemen.

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Aug 15, 2009 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm wondering...

How does Cassel compare to other Quarterbacks DVOA? I’m going to the FO almanac to do some research.

“Cassel’s comfortable working out of the shotgun from his days in New England. It was also where he did his best work; he had a 7.8% DVOA in the shotgun, but a 2.2% DVOA under center.”

by ravenhawk on Aug 14, 2009 5:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

These are 2008 stats that I found... If someone can find 2009 DVOA that would be awesome.

Tom Brady NE, 62.0% (1)
David Garrard JAC, 49.6% (2)
Peyton Manning IND, 43.9% (4)
Brett Favre GB, 29.8% (5)
Ben Roethlisberger PIT, 28.1% (6)
Jeff Garcia TB, 26.2% (7)
Tony Romo DAL, 24.7%, (8)
Sage Rosenfels HOU, 21.7% (9)
Jay Cutler DEN, 19.7% (10)
Carson Palmer CIN, 19.6% (11)
Drew Brees NO, 19.3% (13)
Matt Hasselbeck SEA, 16.7% (14)
Derrek Anderson CLE, 15.5% (15)
Phillip Rivers SD, 14.2% (16)
Kurt Warner ARI, 10.4% (18)
Donavan McNabb PHI, 9.9% (19)
Jason Campbell WAS, 9.8% (20)
Chris Redman ATL, 8.7% (21)
Matt Moore CAR, 3.7% (22)
John Kitna DET, 3.5% (23)
Daunte Culpepper, 1.5% (24)
J.P. Losman BUF, 0.7% (26)
Chad Pennington NYJ, -0.9% (27)
Trent Green MIA, -1.7% (28)
Vince Young TEN, -6.7% (31)
Brodie Coryle KC, -9.9% (33)
Eli Manning NYG, -10.2% (35)
Marc Bulger STL, -10.8% (36)
Kyle Boller BAL, -12.1% (37)
Tavaris Jackson MIN, -12.4% (38)
Brian Griese CHI, -15.4% (39)
Alex Smith SF, -47.0% (50)

by ravenhawk on Aug 14, 2009 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Croyle's not good even when healthy

Thanks for the stats, raven. Most of the arguments for Croyle being the odd QB out this year concentrate on injuries and non-availability. To be fair, Brodie did not have much of a supporting cast in 2007, but even with that asterisk, his performance was not good. Perhaps that’s an equally important argument for his release at the end of August?

In this, the final Scramble for the Ball of the 2007 regular season, we … look back at the beauty of absolute putridity… the stars of suck. The valley at quarterback was a man who might, a year ago, have looked for all the world like a promising player. Instead, with his star running back on the shelf and his offensive line in shambles, Brodie Croyle was left to lead all quarterbacks to the bottom with a series of simply poor performances. Two 6s, a 4, and a 1 led Croyle to 69 points over the eight-week period.

by sunny D on Aug 15, 2009 1:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here are the stats from FOA 2009

1. Peyton Manning 36.1%
2. Philip Rivers 35.6%
3. Drew Brees 33.9%
4. Matt Ryan 30.9%
5. Chad Pennington 25.7%
6. Kurt Warner 22.4%
7. Jay Cutler 22.0%
8. Matt Schaub 21.7%
9. Eli Manning 19.7%
10. Tony Romo 18.5%

20. Matt Cassel 6.4%

by cvigz on Aug 15, 2009 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks cvigs

So Cassel’s total contract was what? …about $10 million per rating point?

by sunny D on Aug 15, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow I got stuck here.

http://www.nfl.com/history/randf/records/indiv/passing

Obviously King Carl didn’t like our QB’s to throw Interceptions

Lowest Percentage, Passes Had Intercepted, Season (Qualifiers)
0.41 Damon Huard, Kansas City, 2006 (244-1)
0.66 Joe Ferguson, Buffalo, 1976 (151-1)
0.90 Steve DeBerg, Kansas City, 1990 (444-4)

by ravenhawk on Aug 14, 2009 5:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

FO is legit

I used them in a couple posts I made immediately following the end of last season in order to review the performance of our offense, and more specifically the RBs. Just as FO mentions in the interview/article, Charles performed far better statistically than LJ did in just about every category. Until LJ supposedly turned over a new leaf with Haley and Pioli I was all for throwing him out with the bathwater and letting Charles, Kolby or somebody we drafted (I had Javarris tagged as LJ’s replacement back before the Draft and that doesn’t matter to anyone other than the superfans around here) duke it out for his job.

If you haven’t yet checked out FO, make a point to do it when you get a chance. There’s more information there than anyone could possible know what to do with and, while you have to take it with a tiny grain of salt, they’re the most objective stat breakdown you’ll find anywhere.

Bask in the glory that is Kwame Harris. Poor Alex...

by JHWK on Aug 14, 2009 6:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

No, he'd be mistaken
College career

McBride divided his time between the defensive tackle and defensive end position at Tennessee. He started four games his sophomore season and the entire season his senior year. He was named the SEC defensive lineman of the week once in 2004 and once in 2006. Following the 2006 season, McBride was named to the Sporting News All SEC team.
College Bio
Played in 43 games (17 starts) at Tennessee … Recorded 121 tackles (73 solo), 6.5 sacks (-42.0 yards), 20.5 tackles for loss and 14 QB pressures … Also registered two fumble recoveries, three forced fumbles and three passes defensed … Started all 13 games as a senior in 2006, with two coming at left defensive end, one at right defensive tackle and 10 at left defensive tackle …

And here is what one person thought a week after McBride was drafted

Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.

by PVChiefsfan on Aug 14, 2009 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice pickup

Adam saw what the the Chiefs draft committee saw in Turk. (Nice pickup PVC!) Unfortunately, he hasn’t lived up to predictions yet…. But perhaps in the Pendergast D he will…finally…be in the position and program that will help him excell.

Accross the board on offense and defense there are players that we wonder, “Is he going to have a breakout season?” If enough of them do, it’s going to be a fun year for the team and for the fans. I for one will be watching. I think a vastly improved team overall will make the historical turnaround.

Prediction: Chiefs 34 – Texans 6

The future is ours KC Chiefs fans!!!!!
N. Gift

by giftedchiefsfan on Aug 14, 2009 8:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

safeties

PreSeason read on 2010 Safeties is a very good crop. Just gotta find the right ones.

Related – Did you hear the chatter on the Lebeau during last night’s snooze fest? They were saying how he claimed that his line and Safeties made his LBs look better. And, incidentally, the Steelers will be cutting some quality players at the end of preseason.

by Kane on Aug 14, 2009 7:25 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

PreSeason read on 2010 Safeties is a very good crop. Just gotta find the right ones.

If we suck this year, and pick in the top 10, I think we will draft the right one – Taylor Mays…6’3", 235 lbs., and he runs like Quentin Lawrence =)

Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.

by PVChiefsfan on Aug 14, 2009 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Taylor Mays is on top of a lot of DraftBoards

I’m hoping at worst we win 3 more games this year which probably takes us out of the Mays sweepstakes, couple of Juniors would probably go 1st round and some think both are better than Mays. The point is, there will be very good Safety talent projected as late as the 4th round.

by Kane on Aug 14, 2009 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like Eric Berry

I wouldn’t be surprised if he actually killed someone on the football field this year.

peep dis shot of him whirly-gigging Marquis Maze and dis shot of him absolutely obliterating this year’s #1 RB draft pick Knowshon Moreno.

Those hits are in this feature from the Phillip Fulmer show – good production.

This guy’s like an Ed Reed that can hit. I believe he holds the UT and SEC record for interception yards and he’s just starting his Junior year. He started as a true freshman, which was very rare in the Phillip Fulmer era.

Absolute Beast.

by Ochophosphate on Aug 15, 2009 2:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously, our safeties are the strength of this team right now.

Why would we be talking about drafting a safety in the first rd??? I am so tired of spending all of our high draft picks on defense and still having a shit defense to show for it. Our O-line desperately needs an injection of talent and THAT is what needs to be addressed more than anything on the team.

If we do spend a high pick on the defense again next year, I hope it will be on a stud Linebacker.

by Chiefsfan1970 on Aug 14, 2009 8:35 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed, what if we would have drafted Ryan Clady instead of Dorsey…

by Tomahawk_Chop on Aug 14, 2009 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even if it weren't Clady...

I think Albert is gonna be a Pro-Bowler. I think we need to draft a RG and RT early in the next couple years (even if they are second rounders as long as you can start em right away) if this is going to be the potent offense that I would like to see. We need to do it one position at a time so the rest of our line can help cover up for the young guy while they are learning. It will take a couple years but, We can’t keep putting together a patchwork offensive line and think we are going to get a championship any time soon.

I am an O-line guy and traditionally, the Chiefs have always had stellar line play. I want to see that tradition continue.

by Chiefsfan1970 on Aug 14, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Let me clarify a little…we should have drafted Clady and Albert…We would have a badass young line, and essentially the same starting D-line

by Tomahawk_Chop on Aug 14, 2009 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That would be

a colossally bad move for a front office to make. Anywhere.

We’d have been paying LT money for a RT AND LT money for our LT. Both of which would have commanded redonkulous contracts due to their high draft positions, which just doesn’t make any sort of fiscal sense.

Bask in the glory that is Kwame Harris. Poor Alex...

by JHWK on Aug 15, 2009 12:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually

Albert was drafted #15, and he was drafted right before a bunch of RTs (Otah, Cherilus, . He’s getting a salary that fits right into the ideal for a RT.

People keep throwing around the “but he’d make LT money argument” and it’s overstated. RTs don’t make peanuts…if you want a talented tackle, you generally have to pay for them, no matter which side they’re playing on.

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.
4. Larry Johnson has already played his last meaningful game for the Kansas City Chiefs. He's gone before the 2009 season starts.
5. Larry Johnson will gain 0 yards rushing for the 2009 Kansas City Chiefs.
6. The Chiefs will go 7-9 in 2009, good for 2nd in the AFC West.
7. Ryan Succop will not perform better in 2009 than Connor Barth did in 2008.

by UCrawford on Aug 15, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm leaning toward your view, UC.

You build your teams from the trenches out. And on the offensive side, the most critical positions are the tackles who anchor the flanks. You can spend all offseason and all your money trying to find 8 or 9 guys who can compensate for problems at tackle, or to replace the guys that get hurt because of problems at tackle, or you can just go after great tackles, which instantly makes everything you do at every other position a whole lot easier, and everybody thinks you’re a genius because of how good your eye is for QB, RB, TE, WR, because you set them up for success.

That’s the MAIN issue I have with spending franchise money on Cassel before addressing the right side of the o-line aggressively

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Aug 15, 2009 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's The Main Issue I Had With The Chiefs Drafting Jackson Instead Of Monroe

I didn’t hate the drafting of Tyson Jackson (because 3-4 ends aren’t easy to find either), but with the amount of money they’ve invested in Cassel I think it’s insane not to protect that investment by upgrading the o-line (which I think is going to be pretty bad this year).

On the plus side, the Chiefs wisely front-loaded Cassel’s contract to put all the guaranteed money up front, so we’re only wedded to the guy for two years. If he gets broken by then the Chiefs can cut him and not take that much of a hit. I’d prefer he not get broken, though…as our team’s history has shown us it’s simply not that easy to find a QB to lead the team.

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.
4. Larry Johnson has already played his last meaningful game for the Kansas City Chiefs. He's gone before the 2009 season starts.
5. Larry Johnson will gain 0 yards rushing for the 2009 Kansas City Chiefs.
6. The Chiefs will go 7-9 in 2009, good for 2nd in the AFC West.
7. Ryan Succop will not perform better in 2009 than Connor Barth did in 2008.

by UCrawford on Aug 16, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plus

O-line tends to have longer careers so you can build around them from the start. RBs not so much (as they tend to have very short careers with the higher injury-risk). Also QBs without a good o-line, not so much (same reason).

I completely agree with your outlook on this.

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.
4. Larry Johnson has already played his last meaningful game for the Kansas City Chiefs. He's gone before the 2009 season starts.
5. Larry Johnson will gain 0 yards rushing for the 2009 Kansas City Chiefs.
6. The Chiefs will go 7-9 in 2009, good for 2nd in the AFC West.
7. Ryan Succop will not perform better in 2009 than Connor Barth did in 2008.

by UCrawford on Aug 16, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I Think The Problem With The Chiefs Continually Drafting Defense

Primarily boiled down to the person doing the picking. Carl Peterson did some good things for the Chiefs while he was here. His drafting prowess was not one of them.

Personally, while I like Page and Pollard, I’d be okay if the Chiefs in the 2010 draft (if they’re not drafting in the top five) went for a safety in the first round like USC’s Taylor Mays. Safeties actually have the lowest bust rates for first round draft picks out of all of the positions and can affect so much on the field for their defenses (e.g. Troy Polamalu, Steve Atwater, Ronnie Lott, Jack Tatum, etc.).

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.
4. Larry Johnson has already played his last meaningful game for the Kansas City Chiefs. He's gone before the 2009 season starts.
5. Larry Johnson will gain 0 yards rushing for the 2009 Kansas City Chiefs.
6. The Chiefs will go 7-9 in 2009, good for 2nd in the AFC West.
7. Ryan Succop will not perform better in 2009 than Connor Barth did in 2008.

by UCrawford on Aug 14, 2009 10:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you're going

safety as the Chiefs I’d wait til middle of the 2nd round and see what sort of value you can get there. 2010 is deep for DBs… Darrell Stuckey anyone?

Bask in the glory that is Kwame Harris. Poor Alex...

by JHWK on Aug 15, 2009 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd Rather The Chiefs Got Taylor Mays

I honestly believe the guy is the next Ronnie Lott. USC’s just got this ability to turn out great safeties, and it’s carried right up to Pete Carroll’s era (as Troy Polamalu showed).

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.
4. Larry Johnson has already played his last meaningful game for the Kansas City Chiefs. He's gone before the 2009 season starts.
5. Larry Johnson will gain 0 yards rushing for the 2009 Kansas City Chiefs.
6. The Chiefs will go 7-9 in 2009, good for 2nd in the AFC West.
7. Ryan Succop will not perform better in 2009 than Connor Barth did in 2008.

by UCrawford on Aug 15, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait!

I just got done agreeing with you on offensive tackle!

The strongest part of your argument is the “low bust potential,” which I think many others overlook. For instance, there’s STILL talk of Crabtree as “the guy” KC should’ve picked, when he was coming off a foot injury and showed signs of being a head case. I’m one who thinks you probably should be getting your WRs from the high end of the draft, because there’s no substitute for physical dominance in those matchups in space. Same for CB. But to spend that high pick, ALL the pieces need to be in place (heart, head, AND body). GOOD rarely wins championships at that position or at offensive tackle.

Chiefs kept drafting defense because Carl knew from experience what a dominant D looked like, and he kept reaching for players that he thought fit that (old) mold. He took risks looking for up-side. Dorsey was one of few in recent memory who looked like upside with not much downside, although if I’d known he had a history of lower leg problems before the draft, I’d’ve been less high on that pick and it’s the main buzz-kill today.

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Aug 15, 2009 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We Discussed Dorsey's Leg Problems A Bit Here Before The Draft

Hopefully they won’t be that much of an issue. But I do think the Chiefs would have been better off last season if they’d kept Allen and drafted Clady. Or maybe not…Herm was a pretty terrible coach. And I can’t argue with the end result of Peterson getting fired (finally), which might not have happened if they’d crapped out two or three more meaningless wins.

For next year’s draft, I agree with you about o-line. It should far and away be the top priority. I’m just saying that I think Mays is a special talent and that if there’s not a clear BPA at our draft position next year who’s an offensive linemen I think we should grab Mays.

But then what do I know? I thought Maualuga was worth a top-five pick this year. :)

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.
4. Larry Johnson has already played his last meaningful game for the Kansas City Chiefs. He's gone before the 2009 season starts.
5. Larry Johnson will gain 0 yards rushing for the 2009 Kansas City Chiefs.
6. The Chiefs will go 7-9 in 2009, good for 2nd in the AFC West.
7. Ryan Succop will not perform better in 2009 than Connor Barth did in 2008.

by UCrawford on Aug 16, 2009 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

For Crabtree

I wonder if he’ll even sign a contract by the start of the season. His agent, Eugene Parker, has a pretty good track record with his clients, but I think in this case he’s making salary demands the Niners aren’t about to match.

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.
4. Larry Johnson has already played his last meaningful game for the Kansas City Chiefs. He's gone before the 2009 season starts.
5. Larry Johnson will gain 0 yards rushing for the 2009 Kansas City Chiefs.
6. The Chiefs will go 7-9 in 2009, good for 2nd in the AFC West.
7. Ryan Succop will not perform better in 2009 than Connor Barth did in 2008.

by UCrawford on Aug 16, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, sucka!

Once, I urinated a whole hotdog.

by LarryDoggyDog on Aug 14, 2009 11:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

O needs some luv 2

I’m definitely ok with taking the best fit/player available. The best OC projects to a 3rd rdselection. The most electrifying RB is projected as late 1st rd/early2nd rd pick. If we’re top 10, and you have a chance at a franchise/potentialprobowl/HOF safety like Eric Berry, you probably take him, if you’re drafting in the 10 to 15 slot and Mt Cody is there (and Pioli thinks he’s as good a NT as everyone else does), you take him. Of course this is all based on preseason rankings…injuries, new talent emerging, old talent down-graded, KCs draft position, will all be huge in what we do.

by Kane on Aug 14, 2009 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

MAKE THAT 3!

Omg this is so freaking funny.

I hate waiting.

by WMR on Aug 14, 2009 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bummer...

They aren’t showing that game here.

by Chiefsfan1970 on Aug 14, 2009 10:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know I wanted to see it.

Herm is gone things are better with that one move!!

by bringbacktheglory on Aug 14, 2009 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man, I almost feel sorry for Denver.

Lost the AFC West last year only barely, with one of the best offenses in the league. Now Orton is in there throwing picks against the 49ers 2nd team defense. All while we have the QB their coach wanted. Haha, this is great.

by ajanzen on Aug 15, 2009 5:06 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't forget

Their Pro Bowl WR wants a trade, as well.

by ajanzen on Aug 15, 2009 5:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chris Simms

has a legitimate shot at beating out Orton for the starting job if things continue looking this way through the rest of the preseason. That’s assuming McD actually has the spot up for grabs of course.

Simms looked pretty damn good out there compared to the INT-storm Orton threw down.

Bask in the glory that is Kwame Harris. Poor Alex...

by JHWK on Aug 15, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

9 to 0 49er's. About 3 minutes until half.

That’s got to hurt for Broncos fans. He’s lucky they aren’t playing at Mile High.

I hate waiting.

by WMR on Aug 14, 2009 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LJ vs. Charles

The difference is exacerbated by the line play. If a defender gets to LJ in the backfield, LJ usually loses. If Charles meets a defender in the backfield, he’s got moves to still make something happen.

On the other had, if the line will give LJ a hole good for 2-3 yards, LJ will often bully his way to 7-9 yards if he has a little head of steam. LJ needs a crack. Charles can cut back. That’s why Charles graded out at FO so much higher than LJ last year — poor O line run blocking. So as someone alluded to, the running game in 2009 comes down to O line play much more than the skill of the running backs.

Regarding Charles and fumbles — I am MUCH more concerned with Charles fumbling this year than I am with Bowe dropping passes. I think Bowe’s drops have been overhyped and will diminish, while Charles’ fumbles have pretty much been swept under the rug. I love to watch Jamaal run and hope he gets a lot of touches this year. I’d rate our odds of getting a 1st down on three runs much higher if they’re by Charles that if they’re by LJ.

by sunny D on Aug 15, 2009 12:50 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I often make this sort of argument.

For instance, much as we ended up hating on Elvis Grbac, if he’d had better o-line and WRs, he could’ve stood tall in the pocket and thrown darts all day long.

We often hate on the skill player when the supporting cast is the real problem. Part of that is the skill players’ fault, since they want the big money when they’re productive. Grbac was one of these, and right now, LJ is one. In LJ’s case, though, the money thing doesn’t apply to THIS season. But this is a pretty unique cap situation the Chiefs are in, right now. But as a general proposition, the INSTANT a player’s bringin’ down more than $4 million a year (and this includes QBs), he has no right to ever complain about the blocking.

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Aug 15, 2009 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My point being it wasn't Grbac's play that was at fault.

It was his greed, at a time when the Chiefs were making many poor man’s choices at other positions.

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Aug 15, 2009 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't kill me

I could see KC trading out a QB and a draft pic or WR for a Denver WR.

by benton on Aug 15, 2009 9:48 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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