Can Scott Pioli Fix The Chiefs Receiving Issues?
There are holes here. Too many for a fan to really be able to stand, but then again, you have to be realistic after going 2-14. After all, when a friend hits rock bottom, you're just happy for him to stay sober for a night, right? So as we move forward here in Chiefland, we're frustrated but happy to see signs of life. Rookie and veteran playmakers making their first appearances in K.C. give us signs of life on the defensive side. QB depth being a plus is a wonderful move. And, of course, snagging a guy who won NFL Executive of the Year from various publications in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2007 is the best move of any NFL team this off-season.
But much has been made of the weakness that used to be a strength - perhaps our only real strength. Our receiving corps is subpar, to put it lightly. Dwayne Bowe has emerged as a solid-to-brilliant playmaker depending on the drive, but that was in the shadow of the greatest TE in the game. We might be glad for that 2nd rounder a year from now, but for now we have a new scheme, new coach and new QB intended for a high octane offense... with no true skill position players to make it happen.
Thus we turn to the man who built New England into the best team of the last decade to come through in the Midwest and turn up or acquire skill players like he did for the Pats. Right? I mean, one team had the cajones to grab Randy Moss while the getting was good. One team saw the diamond in the rough on the Dolphins roster and signed Wes Welker to that restricted free agent deal when the Fins were high on Ted Ginn's possibilities. One team made the perennial disappointment of Jabar Gaffney into a legitimate receiving threat who could run crisp routes and provide a solid option for Tom Brady when no one else was open. And lets not forget the great hands of Kevin Faulk out of the backfield or Ben Watson at the tight end position.
But a closer look reveal some moves that seem rather Sylvester Morris-esque. Or was that Snoop Minnis? High draft picks during the Pioli regime include a second rounder wasted on a guy named Chad Jackson - a burner out of Florida that fell for a reason. Remember Bethel Johnson from Texas A&M? Another second rounder there. Then there was the multi-year FA deal for Kelley Washington and failed experiments with Doug Gabriel and Reche Caldwell.
Of course, I'm leaving out Pioli's greatest strokes in the draft concerning wideouts - the wonderful draft class of 2002 that netted both Deion Branch and David Givens late in the draft. As difficult as the position is to properly gauge, grabbing two starting wideouts like this is certainly impressive.
So it simply remains to be seen what our WR corps will look like once the regular season rolls around. Perhaps we strike quickly with a trade no one sees coming (like the ones listed above and the one already executed for Mike Vrabel and Matt Cassel). Or perhaps some of the young guys on our roster display some Givens-like skills like we hope for (crossing my fingers for Quinten Lawrence). But while Pioli seems to strike it rich in the draft on linemen on both sides of the ball, he's apparently as susceptible to the quandary of the WR position as anyone else working in a front office. And that's not only going to be frustrating for a coach built to move the ball through the air but a fan base who just watched their best player walk out of the door.
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Comments
Nice post
I usually ignore (not on purpose) Pioli’s misses when it comes to WRs. He had a string of big time misses. If you notice, he nails a lot of OL and DL selections and not necessarily WRs…I wonder if that’s from his own playing background as OL.
You also gotta take into account the best QB of the last decade throwing to them. Most of these guys probably aren’t as good as advertised when you take them away from Brady.
by Joel Thorman on Jun 8, 2009 8:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Pioli's Other Misses
include the Tight End position. I think he has spent two first round picks on TE’s to really no avail (Daniel Graham and Benjamin Watson). But that could be the result of the way they are used in the offense—but that raises the question. Why draft a TE in the first round if you don’t plan on using him.
But it appears that Haley knows wide receivers—or at least knows how to use great wide receivers.
Beat the Donkeys!!
by schraggyj on Jun 8, 2009 8:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Haley can get the most out of moderately good WR's too
Breaston improved a lot.
Let’s hope for the same from someone like Darling, Bradley, or Webb (who intrigues me…there has to be some reason Haley kept him)
Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.
by PVChiefsfan on Jun 8, 2009 8:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm thinking
your interest in Webb is the same as Pioli’s – He wanted to find out why Herm hung onto him for so long.
by TDubb on Jun 8, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pioli's tight ends have always been good
if not great talents. They’re just under utilized in the Patriots offensive arsenal
by KansasCityShuffle on Jun 8, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lots of misses on WR
The entire league has lots of misses at WR. Seems like that is one of the first round picks that frequently ends in bust. RB make a swift transition to pros, but WR playing out in space have much more talented guys all over their asses than what they dealt with in college. Takes a bigger combination of skills to be a weiner at this level.
by Zodeman on Jun 8, 2009 8:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
WRs take some time to develop
It might interesting to see how many teams gave up on a WR that ended up being at least serviceable.
by Joel Thorman on Jun 8, 2009 8:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Sylvester the Cat"
Looked like he was going to be something special before his injury. That was a shame.
by Chiefsfan1970 on Jun 8, 2009 8:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad
someone else agrees with me on this. But it looks like he took his money and ran.
by TDubb on Jun 8, 2009 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe so, TDubb.
But he always looked a little on the frail side. Kept hoping he’d put on muscle and have the frame to carry it. Might’ve been just that. He had a special quickness that went with the light frame.
by hmills110 on Jun 8, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Primetime, WR can be a crapshoot
Talent doesn’t always equal production on the field, and sometimes the system makes the player. Case in point, Mike Flurry’s 1000 yard season. I think the wide receiver position group is one that we should definitely be concerned about. Especially with Gonzalez gone. I really hope Bradley can stay healthy and play with the chip on his shoulder he played with last season.
by TheQ on Jun 8, 2009 9:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If Haley
is the wide receiver guru that everyone makes him out to be, he should be able to evaluate and pinpoint what it takes to be a good receiver in the league and use that knowledge for upcoming drafts. However we do have to remember that he has worked with talented receivers. I would like to see if he can mold average players.
by Nelly on Jun 8, 2009 9:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Marty Booker, Steve Breaston. He helped those two guys a lot.
Also, I think D-Bowe looks a lot like like Fitzgerald looked a few years ago. Size, jumping ability and the way he is able to make the tough catches all make them look really similar. The problem is the easy ones. It seems like Bowe is looking downfield before he makes the catch which is something that is easily fixed.
I will predict that Bowe has a pro bowl season this year under the tutelage of Haley.
by Chiefsfan1970 on Jun 8, 2009 9:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Fitz had to work on YAC,
as I recall. Bowe’s issues are consistency in routes and hands.
by hmills110 on Jun 8, 2009 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The receivers are a concern
Bowe will get a lot more defensive attention and Bradley is always hurt it seems. What is there after Engram? I like Webb’s size and he is tough he might be the wildcard.
by FrankPitts on Jun 8, 2009 10:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Taurus Johnson #9
For some reason i really like watching this guy play
But i just don’t know how he’ll translate to the pros
Should be interesting
Before you build yourself up, you must tear somebody else down.
by Zennedy on Jun 8, 2009 10:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Dont draft them....sign or trade for them.
If you cant draft the WR position with success..well dont. There is nothing wrong with signing a WR after a few years of learning the position with another team. Or trading for one. You cant have a team full of guys learning the way to play. Bowe was an exception….he jumped right into the position, no pun intended. Guys like Engram and Bradley are the key. Guys who know what they are doing after playing for other teams.
"You can live for Nothing or die for Something, it's your call" - John Rambo
by Matt_Grbac on Jun 8, 2009 10:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
Almost moreso than any other position, there is ALWAYS talent on the free agent market @ WR. I’d argue WR & RB are two of the most replaceable positions
by KansasCityShuffle on Jun 8, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You draft 'em, preferably.
WR position is special, no question. It’s the one spot that winning the 1-on-1 matchup really throws a monkey wrench into the whole defense. You can do a lot with teamwork between the hashes, without bending things outta shape. But if that one guy is beating his one guy out on the perimeter, the defense needs another guy on the perimeter and out of position to help anybody else.
That’s why WR should always be a position that goes high in the draft.
It’s easy to find draft busts. That little tidbit about the 1st-round TE misses by Pioli was a new one on me. Trying twice for a TE that high doesn’t fit the pattern I have in my mind. Perhaps team needs pushed the pendulum that way?
I think the real genius in the draft comes from husbanding extra picks. Nobody expected Brady to be a dragon-slayer. It was just an extra pick that Pioli and co. had in hand and they spent it on a good prospect. We talk about what a genius Jimmy Johnson was, but how wrong could he go with a jillion picks to play with?
It’s a matter of using the laws of probability in your favor by turning the question upside-down. Rather than only trying to make every pick as high a probability of success as possible (which you, of course, are doing), with enough picks, the probability that ALL of them will bust shrinks toward zero. The successes your team enjoys aren’t necessarily the product of your being a better talent guy than everybody else; rather, they are the product of your managing your business so that you get more picks than the other guy. Just trade down more than you trade up a few times, and watch the picks multiply.
For those who are interested, the probability theory works like this:
Give every draft pick a 40-60 shot at being starting-caliber. Pick 3 players. The probability that all 3 will start is .4×.4×.4=.064. That’s a 6.4% probability of hittin’ on all 3. You expect lots of misses. But turn that question around to see what the probability that all 3 will be busts, and you get .6×.6×.6 = .216, which translates to 78.4% probability that one of ’em will be good.
That 40-60 relationship is arbitrary. But even at that, if you trade for the extra pick, and now have 4 draft picks, at a 40% success rate, the probability of a hit goes up to 1 – .4×.4×.4x.4 = 1 – .4^4 = 1 – .0256 = .9744. So out of 4 longshots, you’re getting over a 97% probability of hitting on one of ‘em. Your eye for talent didn’t improve. Just the sheer number of opportunities you gave yourself.
This, of course, is a very small matter, when so much DOES ride on solid talent evals. But a sign that an organization has a solid SYSTEM in place is the sheer number of picks they get to make. Trades that involve giving up a player for a 2nd and a 5th, when you could’ve insisted on a couple 1sts. Trades like New England made with KC with Cassel and Vrabel for a 2nd.
by hmills110 on Jun 8, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow
Great comment. You really need to make that into a post! I have always thought about having more picks being better but your theory/equations prove it….for real I would like to see this posted for everyone to look at.
"You can live for Nothing or die for Something, it's your call" - John Rambo
by Matt_Grbac on Jun 10, 2009 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have high hopes for our WR's
NE (Pioli) has been able to get Free agent WR to work in their system and Haley seems to be able to get the best out of WR he has, so things don’t look as bad as they do on paper.
by bringbacktheglory on Jun 8, 2009 10:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The Chiefs aren't going to solve ALL of their problems in one off-season
Nor should we expect them to. I’d not be surprised in the least if they went through the season with what they have on hand. Morris, Bradley and Engram are a decent trio – by no means barn-burners, but they’ll likely have to do. If Lawrence contributes beyond special teams, bonus. The 4th wideout (given that Lawrence, if he sticks, will likely be mostly a special teamer) will almost certainly be the best of the rest: Webbs, Darling, Jones, Johnson… This team’s wideout corps is already a lot better than when they entered last season. Darling was a starter, and this year if he sticks it’ll be as a 4th wideout.
by Dagda on Jun 8, 2009 11:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's right, Dagda.
WR stands out as under-addressed (on paper), to date. I think team needs (and a semi-weak WR class?) took KC right out of consideration for making big WR moves in the draft. I’m halfway thinking that KC’s going on a WR hunt after reports from minicamp, especially. Lawrence is having problems fielding kicks, let alone proving he can be a consistent and tough WR in regular offense.
I don’t recall anyone ever saying last season that Bradley “stretched the field” on anybody. And he’s penciled-in to start? I know Haley’s known as a WR guru, and might work miracles with who’s on the roster right now. But if reports have any credibility, WR is currently a weak spot.
It’s kind of expected, when you’re overhauling a team, the way KC is. Focus needs to start with everything that supports the WR’s efforts. Sure, you want the best WR possible, but what good is Terrell Owens if Romo’s running for his life and never gets any good downfield looks? And every extra second you can buy, the better your WR automatically becomes. So you kind of expect WR to be the last thing to get a BIG infusion of talent. How aggressive they will eventually be may depend on how things are developing on the o-line. We non-Sack-n-tosh fans may change our tune, with Goff at RG simplifying the RT job.
But like you say, Dagda, those other issues might not be settled in one year, and if not, going all-out for a high-dollar WR in FA might be premature. And look at what Pittsburgh was able to do with the same system of offense, many of the same weaknesses, right down to a journeyman WR corps. Hines Ward is NOT a dominant WR, but he plays tough and smart, like all the Steelers do.
by hmills110 on Jun 8, 2009 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Darling....
He needs to step up this year….or his chances may be getting slim of sticking around. He has the speed and experience now…he needs to throw everything in and go 100% every down he gets. He could battle Bradley for #2…..
"You can live for Nothing or die for Something, it's your call" - John Rambo
by Matt_Grbac on Jun 8, 2009 11:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Scratch that
the speed? You remember Week 1 last year, right? I think that myth was dispelled real quick about fast Devard was. Talk about your false advertising. Bradley is twice the receiver Darling ever will be
by KansasCityShuffle on Jun 8, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought
he used to be fast but had a pretty serious injury to a knee(?). We all hoped he had recovered from that, but it didn’t look like he played fast last year. Bradley looked promising and should start out at #2 though I haven’t heard his name called much so far in the reports from practices.
by Chiefs4Life on Jun 8, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The receivers have been pretty quiet.
And the DBs haven’t been facing a bona-fide burner, yet. Really hoping to see Quinten Lawrence get some reps with the #1s, just to get some elite speed into the drills.
by hmills110 on Jun 8, 2009 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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