How Effective were the Chiefs 2008 Receivers?

by Joel Thorman on Jun 22, 2009 6:55 AM CDT in 2009 Offseason Comment 17 comments

The 2009 Kansas City Chiefs receiving corps are already getting a bad wrap. It was widely recognized that Tony Gonzalez was the best receiver on the 2008 version of the Chiefs and with him gone, what's a team to do?

Dwayne Bowe is the number one wide receiver heading into '09 and judging by his first two seasons, he's ready to take on the role. Yes, he does drop some balls, but it's not as bad as you might think. Let's take a look at how effective the Chiefs 2008 receivers were and what information we can glean from this (if any) to predict how the 2009 Chiefs receiving corps will fare.

Player	Receptions	Targets	Reception %
Tony Gonzalez	96	155	61.9
Dwayne Bowe	86	157	54.7
Mark Bradley	30	62	48.3
Devard Darling	17	33	51.5

This confirms what we've all known (for about 12 years). Gonzalez had the surest hands on the team. TG's numbers aren't the best in the league but this type of sure-handedness certainly allows him the consistency to be considered one of the best in the game.

Click through to see more on yards, drops and receiver effectiveness.

How did the top receivers in terms of yardage fare when looked at receptions over targets?

Top Five in Receiving Yards

Larry Fitzgerald: 62.3%
Steve Smith: 60.4%
Roddy White: 59.4%
Calvin Johnson: 51.6%
Greg Jennings: 57.1%

While Dwayne Bowe's numbers are slightly less effective than his rookie season (59.8%), there's no cause for concern. His numbers are in line for where I think he'll be in 2009 - on the cusp of a top 10-15 wide receiver in the game.

An elite slot receiver, like Wes Welker, caught about 75% of the balls thrown to him. By the way, in 2007 Engram would have been considered an elite slot receiver by my standards - he caught nearly 71% of the balls thrown his way. Even in an injury plagued 2008 he caught 58% of them, which would have put him slightly behind the great Tony Gonzalez on the 2008 version of the Chiefs.

Top Five in Dropped Balls

Braylon Edwards (18): 39.8%
Dwayne Bowe (13): 54.7%
Brandon Marshall (12): 57.4%
Terrell Owens (10): 49.2%
Calvin Johnson (9): 51.6%

As you can see, Bowe's issues dropping the ball aren't as bad as the guy many consider to be the next great up and coming receiver in the game - Calvin 'Megatron' Johnson. Judging by these numbers, I don't think it's fair to put Bowe in the 'Oh my gosh another drop!' category. He's effective, albeit a little slippery handed, but isn't quite in the Braylon Edwards/Terrell Owens poster boy for drops category.

***

I think the knock on Bowe for drops is overblown. His first two years in the league are rivaled only by few receivers in the past 20 years. 2,000 yards in your first two seasons is an outstanding number and with Gonzalez gone, expect him to get even more looks which translates into even more opportunities.

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After reading this again

I realize the title should be efficient, not effective. Oh well.

by Joel Thorman on Jun 22, 2009 7:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Great write up

I get tired of hearing people carping about Bowe. The only way you have those drops is if you have a lot of balls thrown your way. No matter what, it’s still a better than 50% chance you will have a reception. I think part of the problem with his perception is some of the drops came at critical points in games. Right when you really really needed some yards….oops. The man is still going to be a solid receiver for a long time barring injury. With losing 20 lbs, doing a new regimen on ball drills, a coach who’s not afraid to rip him a new one, and an experienced ace like Engram to work with I think we may see the concentration level improve and the drops reduce. I certainly hope.

by Zodeman on Jun 22, 2009 7:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Expect improvement

I look for improvement on the drop passes, I honestly believe it is a coaching problem and I think it gets addressed. Now after all these ball drills and practice if the drops continue to be an issue, then I know we are looking for a new WR. I think Bowe can step up and I expect to see one or two others really develop into better receivers.

is it me? or isn't about time the Lamar Hunt trophy belonged to His team?

by KC Fanatic on Jun 22, 2009 8:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Reading this actually made me feel better about the drops

I think it goes to show that things are never as bad as they seem. Bowe should do well this season, especially with Tony gone.

by TheQ on Jun 22, 2009 8:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Bowe has the opportunity to be one of the top receivers in the game

We’ll see what happens. The potential is there..Having a “mediocre” 1000 yard season I think just shows his potential..And I agree that the dropped balls have been completely overblown..The guy has been a terrific receiver for the most part, and he’s still so young..Unfurtunately his drops have come at the worst times.

Thanks for the write up!

by CALIFAN1986 on Jun 22, 2009 9:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Timing is the main point

There were a few big drops that he had which followed him through the rest of the season. Other than those, I don’t think all of them are his fault with the crappy accuracy of the QB’s throwing to him.

by EyePod on Jun 22, 2009 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's all about the timing

We shouldn’t shrug off his drops at crucial moments. Nobody shrugs off a QB falling apart when the team needs them most, so why should we have a different standard for a QB’s #1 target? Romo will never be considered an “elite” QB until he can prove he can perform when the game’s on the line, and Bowe won’t be an “elite” receiver until you feel comfortable throwing to him late in the game with the world watching. I think Bowe can do it, last season he was just too focused on the “Bowe Show” to spend time working on his game. Haley should be able to knock his ego down a peg or two and lift his ability at the same time, then he could become elite.

by Chiefs4Life on Jun 22, 2009 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I <3 Haley for this

Bowe has really toned it down and Haley seems to be the reason. Haley made Fitz a better receiver last year (that alone is fucking unbelievable). Steve Breaston had over a 1000 yards, and he played the #2 position REALLY freaking well when Boldin was out, so he didn’t only get his yards by being the other option after Fitz and Boldin were covered. I can’t wait for this season. We really needed a hard ass coach.

by EyePod on Jun 22, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Drops are too one-sided

You have to look at the QB’s throwing at them. Tony is an elite player and he only managed 62%. Didn’t Tony talk about his 2nd season being his worst drop-wise? I don’t think it’s fair to DBowe. Huard and Thigpen were his qb’s. Let me repeat that. Huard and Thigpen. I’m a big Pigpen fan but there is no way that all of those drops were DBowe’s fault. Most likely, at least 25% of those catches were ones that shouldn’t have been caught but DBowe was able to pull it in. Cassel has the accuracy and the ability to move in the pocket. I think he’s a large upgrade over Thigpen (sorry buddy), and I can’t wait to see what he can do with the help of Haley to make our receivers look elite. I mean, Haley made Steve Fucking Breaston look like he was a #1-#2 receiver.

by EyePod on Jun 22, 2009 10:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

As a bit of an AP lurker, I haven't had the opportunity to post much

But I’m wondering whether this season folks think Bowe will be in a position to excel as a result of increased looks, or a position to fail as the result of increased coverage, both as a result of Gonzales’ departure and the apparent lack of a #2 on the team.

I guess a follow-up would be, is there any #2 worth pursuing to help alleviate what will likely be a slew of double coverages on Bowe? I actually would very much like to see us pursue Burress — I realize that comment will elicit some mixed reactions.

by marbotty on Jun 22, 2009 10:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The other WRs available

Don’t appear to be worth it (Burress, Boldin, Edwards, Marshall)….I’m not as down our WRs as everyone else is. Look at NE for their first three Super Bowl victories…they really didn’t have anyone. It’s a very overrated position IMO.

by Joel Thorman on Jun 22, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Burress would have been great if he hadn’t f’d himself in the a (almost literally). I don’t want that crap around our team. We’re too young. Let the Pat’s pick him up because they can compensate with their amazing leadership.

by EyePod on Jun 22, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree on the Bowe thought.

But to further the unease, We seem to be setting ourselves up on Bowe and Johnson being our go to’s in 2009. If either have an issue or injury, Cassel will have a very difficult season.

Let's Kick some ASS in 09 or Die trying

by Steve_Chiefs on Jun 22, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I will continue to preach

Putting in those young athletic guys and giving them a chance is the best way to find the #2 we’re looking for.
Guys like Copper, T. Johnson, and Wright I feel are our answer.
Especially if we can spread it out with a 4 or 5 wide and see who can seperate and make the catch.
I dont really like us putting in guys like Bradley or Darling who have been around and have nothing to show for it.
But if anybody can get quality recievers its Todd Haley.

Before you build yourself up, you must tear somebody else down.

by Zennedy on Jun 22, 2009 12:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Eh...

I looked at this awhile ago and am disappointed in Bowe.

Cassel had notably better weapons to throw to than Thigpen in Moss/Welker vs. our Gonzalez/Bowe. Cassel and the Patriots used the spread with a short passing game with the intent for the receivers to get yards after the catch, much like the Chiefs did with Thigpen, Gonzalez, and Bowe. In fact, Wes Welker led the league for YAC, with Randy Moss coming in ranked 17th in the AFC. Bowe ranked 2nd in the league for dropped passes with 13 attributed to him. In YAC, Moss totaled 358 YAC, while Bowe racked up 396 YAC. A 38 yard difference. Welker’s 758 YAC almost DOUBLES Bowe’s YAC. Bowe was also tied for 4th in the league for passes not caught… tied with Terrel Owens. I think it’s fairly safe to say that Cassel’s supporting cast of wide receivers helped him achieve his success last season.

The stats I used were taken pretty in context as well as they were deemed “catchable” throws by whoever decides those things (not me), drops are considered catchable, not strictly not caught balls. After the last two seasons, I’m approaching everything and everyone with cautious optimism until some visual and statistical evidence says to think otherwise.

I don’t understand this portion of the post though:

As you can see, Bowe’s issues dropping the ball aren’t as bad as the guy many consider to be the next great up and coming receiver in the game – Calvin ‘Megatron’ Johnson. Judging by these numbers, I don’t think it’s fair to put Bowe in the ‘Oh my gosh another drop!’ category. He’s effective, albeit a little slippery handed, but isn’t quite in the Braylon Edwards/Terrell Owens poster boy for drops category.

You’re right, his DB numbers aren’t as bad; they’re worse. It’s not as big a disparity as Edwards/Johnson numbers are, but it’s still more.

Anyway, stats don’t lie, but they don’t tell the whole story either. In this case they affirm what I remember seeing on the field, a guy who dropped quite a few balls that could have turned some games around to “W’s.”

My crystal ball says that the Chiefs will not be drafting Aaron Curry. Their record at the end of 2009 will be 10-6. After witnessing the 2009 draft, their record will be 8-8.

by IISaiNtII on Jun 22, 2009 7:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Targets

I took targets as balls that are intended for them. Though this season I think we’re going to track our own stats. Who the ball was intended for, drops, left vs. right side of the field, etc.

15% and 5.5% better than Edwards/Owens in catches per target. Not as bad, but ultimately you’re right because he’s still in the top five in dropped balls.

by Joel Thorman on Jun 22, 2009 7:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The good thing is

he’s going into his third season and has shown he can play well. Hopefully the drops stop, and it’s just his way of coming into his own in the game.

My crystal ball says that the Chiefs will not be drafting Aaron Curry. Their record at the end of 2009 will be 10-6. After witnessing the 2009 draft, their record will be 8-8.

by IISaiNtII on Jun 22, 2009 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs