Hello. This is my first post. I've been lurking since February and am glad to have found AP. Feels like home for someone no longer living in KS.
With the recent posts predicting/hoping our potential win/loss record for 09(10-6 or 3-13), I decided to take a look at the teams in the bottom half of the league in 07 to see how much they improved in the won/loss column in 08. I am prefacing this exercise with the understanding there is no way of knowing, reguardless(or bucause of), the changes in management, players, schemes or anything. Way to many variables we don't have control over let alone the ones we do. But what the heck, I'm going to plunge ahead anyway.
I looked at the win/loss record changes from 07 to 08 in several different ways.
1. 16 teams improved their records from Miami's improvement of 10 to five teams with a 1 win gain. Their average gain was 3.2 games. The median gain was 2.
2. The bottom 8 teams in 07(with 5-11or worse records) gained an average of 3.5 wins per team.
3. If we remove the anomaly of Miami's 10 and one of the 1 win teams, we arrive at an average of 3.0 more wins per the remaining six.
4. Even if we only consider the 11 or the bottom 16 07 teams that actually showed gains, they only average 3.7 more wins.
Of course our Chiefs are going to improve far more than average. Right? Of course. Will I or we be satisfied with 3 or 4 more wins(5-11 or 6-10)? I don't know but it may be the reasonable expectation. I hope some of you can show me the errors in my ways, My faulty logic, cus I really don't think I'll be happy with 5 or 6 wins in 09.
P.S. The top 8 teams of 07 had 3.4 less wins on average in 08.
Also, Pitt, NE, Ind, NYG and Tenn averaged 0.2 more wins. 11.8 in 07 to 12.0 wins in 08. Consistant high level achievement.