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Responding to the Run: Changes in the AFC West

I hope we're responding in the right way. And certainly, the powers-that-be are more intelligent and paid quite a bit more to figure these things out before I write about them here. But I can't help but notice (and therefore comment) on the winds of change in the AFC based on this season's, or rather off-season's, acquisitions within the division.

Specifically, I'm referring to the now run-heavy opponents occupying the AFC West. We've always been used to the Insert Name Here approach in Denver and their zone blocking schemes. And, of course, one of the best in the business - namely, LaDanian Tomlinson, has kept San Diego dominating (depends on your definition, I realize) for years. But now, more perhaps than ever, we're seeing the shift to run-oriented offenses by opponents we face 6 times each year.

This is a new thing, at least on this level. After all, Phil Rivers Pro Bowl season last year created a new level of momentum and scoring opps for the Chargers, so while LT was fading a bit (thanks, injury), they could still put points on the board. The drafting of Jamarcus Russell's rifle of an arm by the Oakland Raiders was intended to stretch defenses within the division. And let's not forget the fact that we thought Jay Cutler was going to be throwing all over K.C. for years to come.

So the former defensive back (Herm Edwards) drafted well in the defensive backfield. And heading into this offseason, if there was any part of the defensive side of the ball to feel good about, it was our DB core. And our focus, therefore, was to generate a dominant pass rush (or really any pass rush will do at this point) to allow our secondary to do their job.

But, as we've seen in the over-analysis of draft prospects, pass rushers don't tend to play the run well. You draft for one or the other. Everette Brown was rumored as high as the top 10 in the draft and that was on his pass rushing skills alone. Finding gifted two-way players (as in run and pass rush) are rare gems and teams don't easily let them go.

So what are we to think when Denver drafts this year's Adrian Peterson in Knowshon Moreno? The Raiders hold some impressive cards with Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. The Chargers report LT looks back to his old self again, and retained the sparkplug known as Darren Sproles. As Denver has lost Cutler, there's no doubt that the running game will establish the Mile High offense. Russell looks just as bad as ever in camp, so the Raiders are forced to think ground game most of the time (especially with Tom Cable calling the shots). San Diego will at least be balanced, but will prove to be trouble on the ground nonetheless.

The Tyson Jackson pick looks much more valuable from this perspective, as his high draft value came from the fact that he does all things well. But I wonder about older linebackers who might lack the speed to plug the holes created from only having three guys up front. I like the bigger guys on the line, but how does the 3-4 hybrid we apparently have going affect the run defense?

So what do you think? How do we stack up considering the divisional changes? Are we thinking in the right direction or does the lack of Russell's progression and the trade of Cutler shift things?

3 recs  |  Comment 44 comments |

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Good Questions

though I think Moreno is a far cry from the next Adrian Peterson

Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.

by PVChiefsfan on May 28, 2009 11:25 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I will say this

regardless of how old they are, Mike Vrabel and Zach Thomas will play the run better than Pat Thomas and Weston Dacus did…because at least Vrabel and Thomas will be in the correct gap =)

Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.

by PVChiefsfan on May 28, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

mis-tackle...mis-tackle...mis-tackle...mis-tackle...mis-tackle...

….I haven’t seen the Chiefs consistent in tackling since Marty was here. You’re 100% correct. It’s been a problem for YEARS now. And I’m glad someone’s finally doing something about it.

by jbj8609 on May 28, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't

I watched several Georgia games, that cat can ball… (I don’t know why I have Chappelle’s show on the mind today)
I’m not looking forward to seeing him twice a year at all. It was pretty easy for the Chiefs who won only 4 games to stop Peterson and the Vikings, he was all they had on offense. The Bronco’s are pretty well loaded up on a young offense, with the only saving grace being that Cutler is gone.

My crystal ball says that the Chiefs will not be drafting Aaron Curry. Their record at the end of 2009 will be 10-6. After witnessing the 2009 draft, their record will be 8-8.

by IISaiNtII on May 28, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Think the Denver Broncos wasted a pick

That is not a diss towards Knowshon Moreno, but runningback is the easiest position to transition from the college ranks to the NFL. Moreno will be a good runningback, but there a whole lot more good runningbacks, than good players at any other position.

by ChiefsFan90s on May 28, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is True

RB’s are also one of the most transient positions as well. In today’s league you almost need three of them to run an offense, with one more or less feature guy and then a couple of guys to rotate as required for goal line, spread, and blocking for pass plays. The NFL chews up and spits out RBs faster than any other players. They get 3-4 good years and they are finished due to the pounding they have taken. While I am a big fan of running the ball, it is almost a waste these days to pick an RB that high. ChiefsFan90s is right, you can make later pics serve your needs just as well most of the time. It is not worth the risk to draft them that high.

by Skrappy on May 29, 2009 12:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Indeed

With that lousy defense the Broncos have, you’d have thought they’d have used their first pick on a defensive player.

That being said, I was surprised by your comment about drafting running backs. I’m originally from Chicago, and once upon a time we had nobody of significance in the backfield, and then with the 4th pick, we got a guy named Payton. Let me tell you, not only was he the entire offense for years, but an inspiration for the rest of the team and for us the fans as well.

And locally speaking, has not Larry Johnson had enough impact over the years to be worth a first round pick?

by rightnasty on Jun 2, 2009 8:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

and that's a huge saving grace

Brandon Marshall is likely much less impressive with Ol’ Neckbeard tossing to him.

Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.

by PVChiefsfan on May 28, 2009 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno...

Orton wasn’t abysmal in Chicago (he wasn’t good either). I think it’s a tough call as to whether he’ll catch on like swine flu or not.

My crystal ball says that the Chiefs will not be drafting Aaron Curry. Their record at the end of 2009 will be 10-6. After witnessing the 2009 draft, their record will be 8-8.

by IISaiNtII on May 28, 2009 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think he necessarily meant as good as AP

But the best rookie RB outta the draft who can definitely change the game.

by Joel Thorman on May 28, 2009 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm worried...

about wheel routes with Moreno. I don’t think we have a speedy linebacker on this roster with the exception of DJ that could match up with him on tightend like routes. We have to address the linebacking corp next offseason. We need to get faster and younger.

by I_Bleed_Red. on May 28, 2009 11:33 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah. Could be a problem.

Might have to counter speed with speed and play an aggressive nickel to really close this guy down, because the one GOOD thing about drafting an RB that high is if he turns out to be the next Marshall Faulk. Not a smart bet to make in the 1st round, imo, but…

I’m not as worried about the run, because I think this will be a stop-the-run-first kind of 3-4 defense, that isn’t going to give up that much up the middle. I lean towards trusting Pioli on the NT question, but it’s unknown until it’s, er, ah… known.

But I’d be concerned about having a FAST RB matched up all day long against even a fast LB all day long. DJ might spy on him and still be out-matched in the pattern.

by hmills110 on May 28, 2009 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The 3-4

Isn’t it supposed to be more susceptible against the run between the guards? I think this is where not having a NT will hurt us.

by Joel Thorman on May 28, 2009 11:35 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

"not having a NT"

Let me rephrase that…not knowing what we have at NT.

by Joel Thorman on May 28, 2009 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Tank doesn't work out...

I really hope we can get Wilfork in free agency next year. They drafted Ron Brace so maybe they will let him walk. The Patriots are notorious for using and losing players. Vince would still be in his prime too and I bet we could out bid the Broncos.

by I_Bleed_Red. on May 28, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think he'll be available

But if he were, he’d be 29 years old and looking for a massive contract. He’s 325 pounds…I don’t think NTs last too long (Jamal Williams is an anomaly). I think the Pats will wrap him up for a few years though.

by Joel Thorman on May 28, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow...

I thought he would be 27 or 28. If they haven’t given him a contract yet I think they are going to franchise him. However, I don’t know if they want to eat that salary with Haynesworth driving up prices for interior lineman. Who knows, I hope Tank works out so we don’t have to worry about it. NT is equally important to a 3-4 as a LT is to an offense.

by I_Bleed_Red. on May 28, 2009 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

IBR: Wilfork doesn't seem likely.

Remember, it was Pioli’s guys who pulled the trigger on Wilfork. I’d think Pioli’d be more likely to follow the same pattern, and draft his OWN Ron Brace. I think if Pioli’s thinking ahead the same way as you and I are, right now, Wilfork’s definitely on the radar, but he’d prefer to draft his own guy. If NE can’t cut a deal with Wilfork (which I’m sure they want to do), they’ll be forced to slap a tag on him, and let Dan Snyder go after him.

by hmills110 on May 28, 2009 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think KC will be less vulnerable to the inside running of a Moreno, than to the wheel routes IBR is talking about.

But as I said above, NT will be the question-mark until it’s replaced by an exclamation point. But the more I watch Tank Tyler, the more confidence I have that he will make the transition very successfully. !

I don’t think the 3-4 you see the Chiefs running will be your momma’s 3-4. I think Job 1 for the interior line will be to shut down the run between the tackles, which includes your between the guards thing.

by hmills110 on May 28, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I want to say this in response...

That o-line will not be the same w/o the coaching of Mike Shanahan. He is the best in the business at teaching his guys how to run block (cheat) . I think McDaniels is a good offensive coach but, there is no line like a Mike Shanahan line IMO.
If thet are able to block for him, Moreno is gonna be a monster and we will have our hands full trying to stop him twice a year.

by Chiefsfan1970 on May 28, 2009 11:36 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It's only cheating if you get caught...

at least, that’s how I heard it.

My crystal ball says that the Chiefs will not be drafting Aaron Curry. Their record at the end of 2009 will be 10-6. After witnessing the 2009 draft, their record will be 8-8.

by IISaiNtII on May 28, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unfortunately, that is not true...

Nothing ever happened to the Donks for the Vaseline goobered O-linemen in the ’98 playoffs.

I've been rapping for about seveteen years okay? I don't write my stuff anymore I just kick it from my head you know what I'm sayin? I can do that. No disrespect but that's how I am.

by soybon on May 28, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

not to mention

the 16 other rb’s they have

by reedeasy on May 28, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

we need a LB's and a NT hmm

 was Curry avaiable at 3 when we drafted ?
some said that LB’s for a 3-4 defence are easy to get later in the draft or off the wire . well could still find a free LB out there before the season starts, I do not see us getting decent players, teams do not give talent away except for the raiders

by Battle AXE on May 28, 2009 12:13 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

LB’s for a 3-4 defence are easy

  Good luck, It starts with guy’s who already play the position,ie.G.Ellis,Foote or you happen to be the Ravens or Steelers. Dallas has gotten at least 2 in every draft since ’04 and the only ones that produce immediate results are 1st day picks.

  If Ellis is cut, Teams will pay more than 2nd day pick & $5mil. he can stop the run & passrush. 3dn LB, same as Zach both of those guys had backups pushing them off the field on nickle downs. Ellis lost his starts for 1st rounder who got healthy.

If your lucky KC gets him,
<1st he can play @ least 2yrs while you start converting DE’s,
< 2nd he can help teach the transition- run keys,TE & RB responsibility
<3rd He’s a true Pro,Leader and Team guy

I’ll miss him alot, QB’s in the NFC east won’t !!

by psychodad on May 28, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Johnston is gone.

So that’s one candidate for ROLB that’s not going to be in KC.

But I don’t think Dallas is going to pay Ellis his asking price, and Chiefs would be in good position to pay him more than ‘most anybody else in the competition for his services. But that’s assuming the Chiefs want to deal with him from a coach’s perspective. He was never happy with Parcells, and the Parcells connection is very strong with Pioli, his son-in-law!

by hmills110 on May 28, 2009 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Would a 5th rounder make Dallas Happy?

The 2010 draft is deep in Safety, LB, DT and QB not so much elsewhere.

Let's Kick some ASS in 09 or Die trying

by Steve_Chiefs on May 28, 2009 7:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Parcells & Pioli

 Parcells had to try him at OLB ,he tried to bulk up for DE never got bigger than 280. He didn’t have a problem after Jerry paid his insurance guarantee after his achilles injury, money bonuses after every LB draft pick. Was a run stuffing 4-3 end +avg.8 sacks a year, made the transition only to find out he can cover TEs&RBs. His only PBowl was as a OLB, He’d rather be a PBowl LB than a journeyman DE. He’s a character guy on and off the field, Dallas had a pair of 1st round picks sitting on the bench + 3-4 other LB’s waiting in the wings. They have to put them on the field, it sucks because Ellis can still play. Thomas, Vrabel, Ellis would be the start of a pretty good Corp of LBs.

You need experience on the field, not saying the rooks won’t help but only a few college teams 3-4

by psychodad on May 28, 2009 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Picks

  Because other teams will be in need of a passrusher, why bid against other teams if a 2nd day pick will get him, Miami,Cincy,Bills,9ers KC isn’t the only team switching to 3-4

by psychodad on May 28, 2009 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But we can outbid them..

We have more cap room than any of those teams. Pioli will bid as high as he needs to if he thinks he is the right guy.

Personally I’d rather offer him handsome money and another team out bid us than waste draft picks on the guy. I’m sure we would compete with any offer so if he turned us down its because he doesn’t want to play here.

and if that was the case I wouldn’t want him anyway

"...Said he couldn't go on the American way"

by Jux on May 28, 2009 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

to the same token

we could have outbid the Redskins for Haynesworth or the Dolphins for Taylor but players are willing to take a pay cut to play for a contender

Time is a great teacher... unfortunately it kills all it's pupils.

by 808NaNz808 on May 29, 2009 12:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We could still nab a guy like Greg Ellis for less than

the guaranteed money for Curry as a #3 pick. And who’s to say KC doesn’t already have what they need at OLB? The LBs are out there. But (arguably) the top 2 prospects at 3-4 DE (which you need beFORE anything you do at LB will work) fell to the Chiefs. I think Pioli did the right thing in a less than ideal situation (a virtually untradeable #3 pick and nothing else for Day 1 of the draft).

by hmills110 on May 28, 2009 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Prospects

 Ellis won’t be back in D,Jones already said it. From the looks of it DL wasn’t very deep in the draft.
saw the draft page, Seymour huh… Dallas has drafted several “TooTalls” or Haleys. I guess KC will put up points like the pats, force teams to pass. As far as DEs they don’t get a lot of sacks but do have to command help so the LBs can get to the ball. And your LBs have to take on big guys if your bigs don’t occupy them. 3-4 DE’s,NTs come in the later rounds Unless you get a monster like BJ Raji or Hood. Jamal Williams,Jason Furgeson,J. Ratliff most of Parcells guys were late round gems.

In a 3-4 your only as good as your LBs and you’ll need plenty of them

by psychodad on May 28, 2009 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Chiefs just need to pick up

the waterboy. Then he’ll keep everyone hydrated, and take the ball away from EVERYONE.

Best. Season. Ever

My crystal ball says that the Chiefs will not be drafting Aaron Curry. Their record at the end of 2009 will be 10-6. After witnessing the 2009 draft, their record will be 8-8.

by IISaiNtII on May 28, 2009 12:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

||Saint|| is the DEVIL!

Not really. Just a weak Waterboy weference.

by hmills110 on May 28, 2009 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Norv Turner is so lucky to still have a job.

I’m not really worried about our rivals run games. It would be a different story if Norv Turner was worthy of a head coaching position. With him running the show I’m already relieved about their two studs (even though LT’s on his way down). That just leaves Moreno and McFadden that I’m worried about. I imagine our defense will be a lot better next year than everyone thinks. I’m more worried about our offense (line/wr’s).

by BernardPollardRule on May 28, 2009 2:13 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I thought we were transitioning to 3-4 to stop the run?

The Front seven were to stuff the run and on 3rd and long to get after QB.
The secondary seems fine. If the front of Dorsey, Tyler, and Jackson can clog up the running game then We are aligning perfectly with a AFC West that predominately runs.

Let's Kick some ASS in 09 or Die trying

by Steve_Chiefs on May 28, 2009 3:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think it’s fair to say the Raiders and Broncos will be a run first team, but with San Diego having Philip Rivers I think they will be a balanced team on offense.

by Primussux on May 29, 2009 10:04 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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