Maybe the Chiefs Shouldn't Mess with USC Either

by Joel Thorman on Apr 7, 2009 7:45 AM CDT in 2009 Kansas City Chiefs Offseason

Yesterday we talked about the shortcomings of University of Texas players in the NFL, mostly because Brian Orakpo is an option for the Chiefs with the 3rd overall pick. I wasn't trying to knock the Texas program, especially after I sat in the stadium in Austin with 80,000 people yelling Hook 'em Horns as they put a pummeling on Missouri last season. But I just wanted to point out an interesting trend (is it a trend?) about players from Texas.

That said, I wanted to note the recent 1st round picks by some of so-called NFL factories. Like Texas, USC sends a good chunk of their roster each season to the NFL. And like Texas, a number of those are 1st round picks.

The Texas list of pro talent wasn't so compelling. How does USC stack up in the last decade?

DT Sedrick Ellis (7)
LB Keith Rivers (9)
T Sam Baker (23)
DE Lawrence Jackson (28)
RB Reggie Bush (2)
QB Matt Leinart (10)
WR Mike Williams (10)
DT Mike Patterson (31)
DE Kenechi Udeze (20)
QB Carson Palmer (1)
S Troy Polamalu (16)
WR R. Jay Soward (29)
LB Chris Claiborne (9)

Taking into account the general rule that you can't fully judge a draft class for three years, I see three busts (Williams, Udeze, R. Jay Soward), Claiborne hasn't been in the league since 2006, and then Bush and Leinart who haven't necessarily justified their draft position yet. Of those nine picks, Patterson, Palmer and Polamalu are the only three of the nine that have fully panned out so far.

Other schools, like LSU and Tennessee, have better first round talent than USC in the last decade. Yet USC has played in a third of those national title games.

I know this argument is a bit of a stretch because ultimately the school doesn't really determine what kind of NFL performer the player will be. Mark Sanchez, Rey Maualuga, Clay Matthews and Brian Cushing could all be fine players. But the first round talent out of USC in the last decade isn't quite what I thought.

I don't expect Scott Pioli or any of the other Chiefs' scouts to put much stock into something like this. While there may be a few busts or players that haven't necessarily justified their draft position, there's also a franchise quarterback and arguably the best safety in the game. High risk can also create high rewards.

Besides, now that Carl Peterson is gone, it's about time the Chiefs get some USC players on their team. I don't suspect Pioli, being from Central Connecticut State University, will bring his college grudge with him.

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Cue HIV2Elway Pro PAC-10 Response in 3, 2, 1....

by Joel Thorman on Apr 7, 2009 7:55 AM CDT reply actions

With both Texas and SC...

average players can look better due to the incredible talent around them. Does that mean that Rey can’t play? Not a chance. Does Rey make the roid ragers around him look better? Damn straight.

I looked a similar list yesterday, the players from SC taken in the 2nd round were pretty incredable.

by HIV 2 Elway on Apr 7, 2009 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah I saw that

by Joel Thorman on Apr 7, 2009 8:08 AM CDT up reply actions

And good point

Maybe that’s why USC’s 4th LB is getting a look.

by Joel Thorman on Apr 7, 2009 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions

I agree.

scouts apparently struggle to separate the true talent from just the good players. the key i think is to find the guy that makes the other guys look good—but when a team is so talented i think that can be difficult

Beat the Donkeys!!

by schraggyj on Apr 7, 2009 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions

I'd Say That It's The Same Thing As Texas

Yes, there are quite a few busts like Texas had, but also plenty of good players come out of that program…and beyond just the 1st round.

Ellis was good as a rookie, jury’s out on Rivers due to his broken jaw that put him on IR, Baker was solid at LT for the Falcons, Polamalu’s playing his way into the Hall of Fame, Carson Palmer’s been the epitome of a franchise QB for the Bengals (too bad his defense stinks), Reggie Bush was massively overrated coming out of college but it’s not like a lot of draftniks didn’t accurately predict what his issues in the pros would be (durability, inability to run between the tackles), Mike Williams was an odd case (had to sit out a year before being drafted, which should have kept him out of the first round if not for Matt Millen).

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

by UCrawford on Apr 7, 2009 8:49 AM CDT reply actions

In Fact

Leinart’s really the only bust that nobody saw coming on that list…there were questions about his arm strength and general ones about attitude, but nobody thought he’d be this ineffective in the pros based on how he performed in college.

About the only position that teams should absolutely avoid from USC are wide receivers. There’ve been a lot of busts among USC wide receivers (Dwayne Jarrett, Mike Williams, Keary Colbert) and only one big success (Keyshawn Johnson…who wasn’t as good as his hype).

Predictions for 2009

by UCrawford on Apr 7, 2009 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions

Maybe the Chiefs Shouldn't Mess with USC Either??

This year… Ok. Fine. I can swallow that (I’m a Penn State guy anyway), but this time NEXT YEAR, we’ll probably need a Safety and theres a guy that’ll be out there… Taylor Mayes. You heard of him?

Oh… and from USC.

I know that you're afraid... you're afraid of us. You're afraid of change. I don't know the future. I didn't come here to tell you how this is going to end. I came here to tell you how it's going to begin.
'09, a new era begins in Kansas City.

by R2J_24 on Apr 7, 2009 9:13 AM CDT reply actions

I'm Definitely For The Chiefs Getting Taylor Mays Next Year

The guy looks like the second coming of Ronnie Lott. But hell, I’d be happy if he was the second coming of Dennis Smith.

Nothing against Pollard or Page when I say that, but neither are going to be in Mays’ class as a football player.

Predictions for 2009

by UCrawford on Apr 7, 2009 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions

Pioli and company

will have no problem drafting Mays if he’s that good, and the opportunity arises – even if Pollard and Page up their game this season.

Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.

by PVChiefsfan on Apr 7, 2009 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions

MAYS IS A BEAST

i have to agree on that . Man that boy is a beast . And when i seen him play i had the same thought ronnie lot.

FOUR F'S FIND UM FEEL UM FUGUM FORGET UM.

by sexassassin on Apr 7, 2009 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions

Mays is a freak

by Joel Thorman on Apr 7, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions

Fox Robot

In pads, Mays is closest thing there is to the Fox NFL Robot

by TimGrunhard61 on Apr 7, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions

No the FOX Robot is Mega-Tron

by Joel Thorman on Apr 7, 2009 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions

I wouldn’t mind Mays, but I’d MUCH rather have Eric Berry. If he continues to progress, he should be the earliest safety ever drafted.

by burntorangehorn on Apr 7, 2009 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions

VERY INTERESTING!

I am a HUGE TEXAS fan. Been a fan since I was old enough to remember. But that is besides the point. I have heard that players from UT are soft when they get into the league but with this post by Primetime07 I didn’t realize that the players coming out of USC are softer than the guys coming out of Austin. IMO

by Mostate44 on Apr 7, 2009 9:41 AM CDT reply actions

It’s all a wash. Obviously I’m a ‘Horns fan, but I recognize that some first-rounders haven’t panned out. You just can’t draft with the mindset that a guy from the same school as other busts is going to be a bust, or that a guy from the same school as a big success is also going to be a big success. Seriously, KC is also looking at Everette Brown, but he comes from Florida State, which also sports a long list of first-round busts. There’s also Curry of WF, and they don’t really have much of a history of productive NFL players either. Miami? Penn State? Michigan? The trend is similar for most big programs.

by burntorangehorn on Apr 7, 2009 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions

Exactly

All a school with a lot of first-round busts usually means is that they’re a school that turns out a lot of pro prospects. The thing with USC is that they also turn out a lot of very good pros as well. It’s ridiculous to say that we should avoid a school altogether because they have a lot of busts…the NFL draft itself is full of busts. That’s just the nature of it.

Predictions for 2009

by UCrawford on Apr 7, 2009 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions

Absolutely agree...

USC has consistently provided the NFL with a ton of quality players, some doing better than others. You can’t label that one program is better than another if its players will not do the extra work required to excel at the next level.

Dude there’s more HOF’s from USC than UT! Crap even SMU’s got more than UT.

Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.

by aPacificChief on Apr 7, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions

This is a pointless exercise.

Plenty of very good players and a fair share of “can’t miss” busts have come out of both schools. Every player is different and no one can predict for certain who can handle NFL football and who can not. There are indicators professional scouts use to help discern that a player has the potential to succeed at the next level. However, a player that did not live up to expectations out of the same school five years ago is not one of them IMO. Just a thought.

OU SUCKS!!!!!!

by TexasFight83 on Apr 7, 2009 10:01 AM CDT reply actions