Who Will be the Chiefs' Draft Bust of 2009?
by Chris Thorman on Apr 28, 2009 11:04 AM CDT
in 2009 Kansas City Chiefs Draft
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PrintShortly after last year's draft, I asked the Arrowhead Pride community who you thought would be the Kansas City Chiefs' draft bust of 2008. Here's how that poll came out:
- 10% Glenn Dorsey
- 12% Brandon Albert
- 7% Brandon Flowers
- 8% Jamaal Charles
And in true Chiefs fan fashion, 60% of you said none of those players was going to be a bust.
Bust is a subjective term in the NFL. It seems that everyone has a different definition of what a "bust" really means. Is it simply not living up to expectations? Is it a factor of longevity? That's the beauty of this conversation and football conversations in general - there is a lot of room for debate.
Going back to that 2008 draft bust poll, Glenn Dorsey would be the unanimous pick now, no?
For me, I won't consider a player a bust if he's a starter/playing within expectations within three years of being drafted. Of course, we don't have that 3-year luxury with the 2009 class so we'll have to be hypothetical about the whole thing.
I also don't consider guys drafted in the 6th and 7th round busts if they never take the field. Expectations are extremely low for those guys.
So who's the bust this year? Statistically speaking, there's going to be one. Make sure you tell us why they're going to be a bust and what your criteria for a bust are.
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expectations
I would only call a pick a “bust” in the first 4 rounds.
Past that, it’s developmental guys, etc.
given that, I think the DL are pretty safe picks, and even though people might call them busts (ala Glen Dorsey) if we don’t hear their names called a lot… they can be very solid contributors, and the defense will be better because of them.
I say, if the defense is decent this year, and they are able to stop the run, and the LB play is good… the DL (Dorsey, Jackson, Magee) can’t be considered busts.
So, I’ll vote for Washington, since he has so much athletic ability. He should be able to develop into a playmaker…
Dorsey is not a bust
He plays at a position that always struugles in year 1. If he is a bust then so was warren sapp and albert haynesworth. He may turn out to be, but I still think he will be a very good player in this league. I am not sure if he will transition to the 3-4, but he is talented.
I'm not saying he's a bust
Just that if we re-polled this year, I bet he would come up #1.
by Chris Thorman on Apr 28, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Could one of you AP bloggers construct an article on the defense?
It’s a bit unclear. If we are a true hybrid defense, won’t we be running the 3-4 as our base defense instead of the 4-3 Under?
And one reason it's unclear
Is because it hasn’t been fully decided on what defense we’re going to run.
by Chris Thorman on Apr 28, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Lol that would explain it.
I say we use the 4-3 Under as a base defense.
by SupremeChief on Apr 28, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions
Awwwwwwww...
Thanks for the props, Chris!
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
by KaloPhoenix on Apr 28, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Dorsey is not a bust at all
He was playing in the Cover 2, clogging gaps and not going after the QB.
If my memory serves me correctly, someone said that he led all rookie DTs in tackles last year. He was making an impact, just not in the way that was expected because he was misused in Herm’s pathetic system.
I know I know
I was simply saying that if the poll was retaken, I bet Dorsey would be the leading vote getter for the ’08 bust right now.
I don’t think he will be a bust either.
by Chris Thorman on Apr 28, 2009 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Why are we being so negative, already?? We as fans, not only want things to happen now, but RIGHT NOW!!
Lets stay positive, if we believe in Pioli/Haley, why not believe in the players as well!!
Just a thought!!
Not being negative
It’s a statistical probability that one of these will bust.
I’m curious to know who people think won’t pan out right after the draft.
by Chris Thorman on Apr 28, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Half of these posts
are you defending this thread.
Maybe we’ve had enough disappointment already, eh? Don’t want to wallow any further.
Not defending
I wasn’t as clear as I needed to be in the original post.
by Chris Thorman on Apr 28, 2009 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
I can't win
On Sunday I was too optimistic. Now I’m too negative :).
by Chris Thorman on Apr 28, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Indeed
Not everyone has been reading for a while so they don’t know about my feelings from day to day. It can be tough sometimes.
by Chris Thorman on Apr 28, 2009 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions
And you still havent answered me...
Was there a Denny’s or wasn’t there? =P
The Powers Of Astute Observation Are Often Mistaken As Cynacism By Those That Do Not Posses Them -- G.B. Shaw
by Texas Chief on Apr 28, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
TC, could've used your thoughts yesterday
We were discussing why Haley would’ve said that Jackson would be playing the 5 tech on the weakside? Does this mean no 4-3 under?
Some thought he may have just misspoke.
You're exactly right...
In the 4-3 Under, there’s a perfect spot for Jackson in the 5-tech…he’d just need to be on the Strongside. That weakside guy’s gotta be a DE/OLB cross that’s decent in pass coverage for blitz schemes. Strongside is a big run-stuffer that’s good at collapsing the pocket and getting some penetration. I’m actually crossing my fingers for him there, because Tank at NT and Dorsey at UT just makes too much sense.
Maybe he misspoke. I hate to say it, but the guy on our roster that most fits the weakside 5-tech is Tamba…and I’d be worried about him dropping into coverage.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
by KaloPhoenix on Apr 28, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions
well, that weakside role was filled by Travis Laboy last year for Arizona
And I’d take Tamba over him.
Too true.
I’m really crossing my fingers for it.
-TE———RT———RG———C———LG———LT————
-—Jackson————-Tank————Dorsey——————-
-—————————————————————————Tamba
-Vrabel—————————————————————————-
-——————-Thomas————-DJ———————————
I’m actually very okay with that.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
I like that
Looks pretty stout to me.
And with Magee rotating with Dorsey and Jackson…
and robertson rotating with Hali…
and Edwards rotating with Tank…
Fresh legs on the DL… that’s a very good idea.
Now, they just need some depth at LB (Foote, Hill, Ellis, Holtzclaw??)
and maybe another S…
I’m happy with how the Defense is shaping up, piece by piece.
I like that
but that is different than Carrol’s 4-3 under in that link everyone posts…in that defense (really a 5-2) Tamba would be on the line, and Vrabel would be in the 7 or 9 tech outside the TE
Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.
Actually,
Both of those guys typically play standing up in Carroll’s defense. In Pendergast’s, the weakside DE plays both ways, and the SLB plays just a shade closer than a normal 4-3 SLB.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
Gotcha
thanks…I think it’s pretty obvious that the 4-3 under is the defense which best fits our current personnel. In fact, with another draft, we could find a good fit for the weakside DE, and young replacements for Vrabel and Thomas and have a nice defense made up of young players (if we just made those three changes, DJ would be the oldest player on defense)
Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.
haley said
Jackson is on the weakside
Hali is obviously being groomed for the predator spot… hope he can do it!
Well...
Weakside would be the “predator” spot in this defense.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
well...
maybe he was talking about Jackson on the weakside of the 3-4, when the Chiefs line up there???
I keep thinking the 4-3 under is the base, but 3-4 will be mixed in
Could be
But the 5-tech is outside of the tackle. He’d be playing more around the 3-technique in a 3-4, which he’s perfectly capable of doing.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
Jackson or Washington
Jackson because he really doesn’t fit as a No. 3 pick (game changer)
Washington because he’s a head case.
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
I'd rather have a defensive line changer than a game changer.
That is, if Jackson makes this line better than it was last year he’s worth it.
by SupremeChief on Apr 28, 2009 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions
still doesn't solve the compelling problem of pass rush
nobody on the squad at this time is capable of consistent pass rush.
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
I don't know if no one is capable
But certainly the likes of Dorsey, Hali, and McBride need to prove that they are capable. And soon!
Dorsey's best chance
is at the 3 tech position—fits him perfectly. I’m hoping we run the 4-3 Under as our base.
I see Jackson and McBride rotating since both are known for being run stuffers.
I’m drawing a blank with Hali…he may get cut.
by SupremeChief on Apr 28, 2009 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, Hali wouldn't make too bad of a DE/OLB.
I recall many times he had to chase down a TE, WR, or RB from behind. I just hope he can hone those coverage skills.
And how about reading the offense? He won’t be asked to do much—probably just keep an eye on the RB coming out of the backfield for screens and such.
by SupremeChief on Apr 28, 2009 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I think he'd benefit from having the freedom that the predator position would allow him.
Limited run-gap responsibilities would allow him to use that motor to just go after the QB and chase down plays.
I doubt our "predator" will be doing much coverage
but we’ll see…
Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.
by PVChiefsfan on Apr 28, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Blitzing.
That’s really it in a 4-3 Under. Not a whole lot of faith in his ability to do that, though.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
by KaloPhoenix on Apr 28, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
that's all he has got!
Hali is a pass rusher.
that’s his strength.
he didn’t do well in his position last year.
this hybrid spot gives him a chance to get after the QB.
I think he’ll be good.
Oh, sorry, that read wrong.
I was responding to the “coverage” aspect of that position. I’m okay with him as the pass rusher out there, because he’s the best we’ve got right now.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
Sacks dont come from the Defensive Line (DE's, NT) in the 3-4...
…the sacks come from the LineBackers.
Look at a classic example of a 3-4 with the Stealers** and where they got most of their sacks from…
James Harrison (RILB) – 16 sacks
Lamarr Woodley (LOLB) – 12 sacks
Arron Smith (DLE) – 6 sacks
Lawence Timmons – (ROLB) – 5 sacks
James Farrior (LILB) – 4 sacks.
Out of the top 5 most productive “sackers”, 4 are LineBackers (37 between the 4)…and 1 was a DLE (6 sacks).
We are not looking for sacks from the line (although it would be a bounus), we are looking for sacks from our LineBackers (Vrable, Thomas, DJ).
We will be using a 4-3 under and not a TURE 3-4, but the principle of sacks coming from the LB’s is consistant.
Was suspended for a couple games
That’s all I know of.
by Joel Thorman on Apr 28, 2009 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions
He possesses some astounding leaping abilities.
by SupremeChief on Apr 28, 2009 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
He'll be a good fit with
Greg Wesley and Tony Gonzalez on the All-time Chiefs pick-up basketball squad. They’re in not of a solid swingman.
Think Washington's skills will fit the Nickel position?
by SupremeChief on Apr 28, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions
From the looks of it, yeah
He’s got the athletic ability, and if he’s got the smarts to play inside that Haley says he does, then he could definitely work out. I’m hoping Mo Leggett has a lot to say about giving up that position though.
Legs is damn good. I'd hate to see him let go or pushed to a backup role.
by SupremeChief on Apr 28, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
So, what team rule did he break??
No one knows, as a matter of fact, no one has ever mentioned it, including the OSU coaches, except for “it was a mistake most kids make while in college”!!
I’m betting it had something to do with a “girl/woman” in the dorms!!
He could've just had a bad week and missed a couple of team meetings or something
It’s never good when players get suspended, but a lot of these things are pretty forgivable, especially for a 21 year old.
Good Lord, Chris!
Why do you have bring the morale down? All of these players are future Pro Bowlers!
Lol I’m just giving you a hard time. ;-)
This is a very sensitive time for the AP and you know that Chris, gawd
There’s a lot of emotions going around right now. They just experienced Pioli’s first mystifying but not undefensible draft. And right now they don’t know if he’s Patrick Swayze from Dirty Dancing or that guy at the beginning of Fast TImes at Ridgemont High. And you want to go around dropping “B” bombs not even two days later…jeez.
by Official Arrowhead Pride Parade on Apr 28, 2009 11:58 AM CDT reply actions
Sorry
Gotta tow both lines around here to appease everyone.
by Chris Thorman on Apr 28, 2009 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I’d really struggle to call anyone who sticks in the NFL a bust if he’s drafted after the third round, so if Washington and Brown make it to the point that they’re RFAs, and KC has to decide what tender offer to extend to them, then I’d consider them hits, not booms or busts.
The criteria are tougher for rounds 1-3. Jackson pretty much needs to perform at an all-pro level by the end of his rookie deal, while Magee needs to become a solid starter. Those are the standard and realistic expectations of a top-five pick and an early third, IMO.
by burntorangehorn on Apr 28, 2009 12:14 PM CDT reply actions
Good points
Just what I was looking for in these comments.
by Chris Thorman on Apr 28, 2009 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I wouldn't even say Jackson needs to be an All-Pro, because those are often stat-related honours
By year 3 or 4 he should be a guy that the defense will have a tough time living without though. My hopes for is ceiling would be to play at a Ty Warren level. Anything more would be awesome, a little less would put him in the “just good enough” category.
I'm all for the Hali is a bust bandwagon.
Which makes me sad. The kid showed potential his rookie season.
I wonder
how much of whether a player transitions from college to PRO is the structure and coaching given to the player Vs. the player themselves.
And I don't have a lot to add on that
That’s a full post in itself.
by Chris Thorman on Apr 28, 2009 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm speculating and saying it's a bit of both.
The coaches need to situate the player so he can play to his strengths. The coaches also need to assist in honing their skills—focus more on their weaknesses. You can always fine tune their strengths.
It’s up to the player to reach mental maturity. Playing an entire season will help if the player is apprehensive about playing in the pros.
by SupremeChief on Apr 28, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
So many teams draft guys that don’t fit their scheme, but draft them anyway!!
For example, Greg Hill, at A&M he was a outside runner in their scheme (sweep left/right)!! At that time, Chiefs ran off-tackle with Marcus Allen!!
Why? Why?Why? Would you draft this guy?
I think they just knew he would come up with an awesome gimmick like "raise the roof" 2 years after that term was popular
And they couldn’t pass him up. :)
For everybody who voted for Washington
What is considered “bust” for a 4th rounder…if he is a nickelback/special teams player his entire career, is that a bust?
Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.
The Chiefs have had some great players
and some bad ones, I just would like to get a whole team together. during Marty’s time a great defense but offence not so good never had standout receivers, During Vermeil good offense, defense needed work. Herm well nothing was good. So i just hope the new powers that be can have a balance on all 3 sides of the ball.
by bringbacktheglory on Apr 28, 2009 1:39 PM CDT reply actions
This is tough
Because expectations for the #3 pick are so high, that he has to perform at a very high level to not be considered a bust.
It’s for this reason I voted for him, as the most likely to bust. Not that I think it he won’t be a solid contributor, but just that he is the most likely not to live up to his draft position.
Jackson could have a much better career than Magee, and still be considered a bust. Magee could never become a starter, but be in the rotation, and in the 3rd round, with a 3 man front, that’s only a marginal bust.
I’m not of the opinion that 5th rounders can be consider busts. I guess if he’s cut during camp, that’d be considered a bust, but only a marginal bust.
Washington as a 4th, simply needs to make the team and contribute on special teams for the duration of his rookie contract to live up to 4th round standing.
Donald Washinton = Julian Battle?
I hope not, but they have a lot of similarities.
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