How did the Arrowhead Pride Mock Draft Fare Against the Real Thing?

Team Actual Selection AP Selection Reach 
Detroit Lions - UCrawford 1 Matthew Stafford LB Aaron Curry -3
St. Louis Rams - Lanier63 2 Jason Smith OT Jason Smith 0
Kansas City Chiefs - TonyG88 3 Tyson Jackson OT Eugene Monroe -5
Seattle Seahawks - mikvogel 4 Aaron Curry DT B.J. Raji -5
Cleveland Browns - HIV2Elway 5 Mark Sanchez WR Michael Crabtree -5
Cincinnati Bengals - mistamic 6 Andre Smith OT Andre Smith 0
Oakland Raiders - mushin 7 Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Jeremy Maclin -12
Jacksonville Jaguars - DThomasReigns 8 Eugene Monroe WR Percy Harvin -14
Green Bay Packers - JasonM 9 B.J. Raji DE/OLB Everette Brown -34
San Francisco 49ers - Harry Feltersnatch 10 Michael Crabtree QB Matt Stafford +9
Buffalo Bills - ArrowDread 11 Aaron Maybin LB Rey Maualuga -27
Denver Broncos - Keyser Sose 12 Knowshon Moreno DE Brian Orakpo -1
Washington Redskins - Official Arrowhead Pride Parade 13 Brian Orakpo T Michael Oher -10
New Orleans Saints - cmpotter 14 Malcolm Jenkins CB Vontae Davis -11
Houston Texans - ChiefsDude 15 Brian Cushing CB Malcolm Jenkins +1
San Diego Chargers - Helmets 16 Larry English DE Tyson Jackson +13
New York Jets - NJChief 17 Josh Freeman QB Mark Sanchez +12
Chicago Bears - Holmeslice 18 Robert Ayers QB Josh Freeman +1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - madtheory 19 Jeremy Maclin DT Peria Jerry -4
Detroit Lions  - UCrawford 20 Brandon Pettigrew DE Aaron Maybin +9
Philadelphia Eagles - Chiefsfan717 21 Alex Mack TE Brandon Pettigrew +1
Minnesota Vikings - kcsno56 22 Percy Harvin WR Hakeem Nicks -5
New England Patriots - connerman 23 Michael Oher RB Chris Wells -8
Atlanta Falcons - RedNose 24 Peria Jerry LB Clay Matthews -2
Miami Dolphins - shraggyj 25 Vontae Davis LB Brian Cushing +10
Baltimore Ravens - Ben S 26 Clay Matthews CB Alphonso Smith -11
Indianapolis Colts - craig in calgary 27 Donald Brown LB James Laurinaitis -8
Philadelphia Eagles - Chiefsfan717 28 Eric Wood OT Eben Britton -11
New York Giants - ChiefsFan90s 29 Hakeem Nicks WR Darrius Heyward-Bay +22
Tennessee Titans - Lvl.99 30 Kenny Britt C Alex Mack +9
Arizona Cardinals - THE_TRUTH 31 Chris Wells RB Knowshon Moreno +19
Pittsburgh Steelers - McWhirt33 32 Evander Hood CB/S Sean Smith

As you can imagine, there weren't very many picks by the Arrowhead Pride faithful that were right on in this past weekend's NFL draft. Lots of inexplicable drops to the second round by first round prospects threw our whole mock draft out of whack.

Here is how to read the chart. Basically, the closer to zero the better, with a negative number meaning the AP mock drafter "reached" for that pick compared to where the player fell in the actual draft. A positive number means good value was had for that pick. I subtracted the real draft position from AP's draft position to get these numbers.

Basically, negative is bad and positive is good. The second round is after the jump.

Here are some stats on the AP Mock Draft v. the real thing:

Right on

Four people got their picks dead on - Lanier63 (#2 overall, OT Jason Smith to the Rams), mistamic (#6 overall, OT Andre Smith to the Bengals), ChiefsFan90s (#45 overall, LB Clint Sintim to the Giants) and ChiefsFan717 (#53 overall, RB LeSean McCoy to the Eagles). Not too shabby in this draft.

Biggest Reaches

Our main man THE_TRUTH was in a league of his own with this one. His selection of C A.Q. Shipley with the #63 pick in our mock ended up coming far too early. Shipley ended up going in the 7th round with the #236 pick. That comes to a reach factor of -173. We still love him though.

DThomasReigns was next up on the reach list. Oklahoma G Duke Robinson fell all the way to the 27th pick of the 5th rounder. The reach factor ended up being -124.

The next three big reaches before the numbers dropped off were ChiefsFan90s selecting OT Herman Johnson at #60 (reach of -107), RedNose selecting CB Victor Harris (reach of -102) and 808NanZ808 taking OL Fenuki Tupa at #59 (reach of -100).

Non-reaches

Not including those who nailed their picks, we only had seven commenters who did not end up reaching for their mock draft picks. They are Holmeslice (CB Malcolm Jenkins at #15), Chiefsfan717 (TE Branden Pettigrew at #21), JasonM (DT Ron Brace at #41), PSUkegreen (WR Mohammed Massaquoi at #52), Lanier63 (DT Evander Hood at #35) and finally saskwatch (DT Fili Moala at #61). Nice work fellas.

We'll do it again next year

Many thanks to everyone who participated this year. Every pick came in on time and the write ups were excellent. For those interested in last year's mock draft v. the real thing, stag was nice enough to do that post back in August.

Click over for the second round results and grade the draft in the poll below.

Pick Team Actual Selection AP Selection Reach
1(33) Detroit Lions - UCrawford 33 Louis Delmas CB Darius Butler -8
2(34) New England Patriots (From Kansas City) - connerman 34 Patrick Chung DE Robert Ayers +16
3(35) St. Louis Rams - Lanier63 35 James Laurinaitis DT Evander Hood +3
4(36) Cleveland Browns - HIV2Elway 36 Brian Robiskie DE Connor Barwin -10
5(37) Seattle Seahawks - mikvogel 37 Alphonso Smith OT William Beatty -23
6(38) Cincinnati Bengals - mistamic 38 Rey Maualuga C Max Unger -11
7(39) Jacksonville Jaguars - DThomasReigns 39 Eben Britton G Duke Robinson -124
8(40) Oakland Raiders - mushin 40 Ron Brace T Phil Loadholt -14
9(41) Green Bay Packers - JasonM 41 Darius Butler DT Ron Brace +1
10(42) Buffalo Bills - ArrowDread 42 Jairus Byrd DE Michael Johnson -28
11(43) San Francisco 49ers - Harry Feltersnatch 43 Everette Brown DE/LB Larry English +27
12(44) Miami Dolphins (From Washington) - shraggyj 44 Pat White WR Kenny Britt +14
13(45) New York Giants (From New Orleans) - ChiefsFan90s 45 Clint Sintim LB Clint Sintim 0
14(46) Houston Texans - ChiefsDude 46 Connor Barwin FS Louis Delmas +13
15(47) New England Patriots (From San Diego) - connerman 47 Michael Mitchell DE/OLB Paul Kruger -10
16(48) Denver Broncos (From Texans) - Keyser Sose 48 Darcel McBath RB Donald Brown +21
17(49) Chicago Bears - Holmeslice 49 Max Unger C Jonathan Luigs -57
18(50) Cleveland Browns (From Tampa Bay) - HIV2Elway 50 Mohamed Massaquoi RB Shonn Green -15
19(51) Dallas Cowboys - chiefsfan1384 51 Andy Levitre SS William Moore -4
20(52) New York Jets - PSUkegreen 52 David Veikune WR Mohamed Massaquoi +2
21(53) Philadelphia Eagles - Chiefsfan717 53 LeSean McCoy RB LeSean McCoy 0
22(54) Minnesota Vikings - kcsno56 54 Phil Loadholt C Eric Wood +26
23(55) Atlanta Falcons - RedNose 55 William Moore CB Victor Harris -102
24(56) Miami Dolphins - shraggyj 56 Fili Moala CB Jarius Byrd +14
25(57) Baltimore Ravens - Ben S 57 Paul Kruger WR Brian Robiskie +21
26(58) New England Patriots - connerman 58 Sebastian Vollmer DL Jarron Gilbert -10
27(59) Carolina Panthers - 808NaNz808 59 Sherrod Martin OL Fenuki Tupou -100
28(60) New York Giants - ChiefsFan90s 60 William Beatty OT Herman Johnson -107
29(61) Indianapolis Colts - saskwatch 61 Sean Smith DT Fili Moala +5
30(62) Tennessee Titans - Lvl.99 62 Sen'Derrick Marks LB Cody Brown -1
31(63) Arizona Cardinals - THE_TRUTH 63 Cody Brown C A.Q. Shipley -173
32(64) Pittsburgh Steelers - McWhirt33 64 Richard Quinn OT T.J. Lang -45

 

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