How did the Arrowhead Pride Mock Draft Fare Against the Real Thing?
by Chris Thorman on Apr 27, 2009 10:00 AM CDT
in 2009 Draft
10 comments
| Team | Actual Selection | AP Selection | Reach |
| Detroit Lions - UCrawford | 1 Matthew Stafford | LB Aaron Curry | -3 |
| St. Louis Rams - Lanier63 | 2 Jason Smith | OT Jason Smith | 0 |
| Kansas City Chiefs - TonyG88 | 3 Tyson Jackson | OT Eugene Monroe | -5 |
| Seattle Seahawks - mikvogel | 4 Aaron Curry | DT B.J. Raji | -5 |
| Cleveland Browns - HIV2Elway | 5 Mark Sanchez | WR Michael Crabtree | -5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals - mistamic | 6 Andre Smith | OT Andre Smith | 0 |
| Oakland Raiders - mushin | 7 Darrius Heyward-Bey | WR Jeremy Maclin | -12 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars - DThomasReigns | 8 Eugene Monroe | WR Percy Harvin | -14 |
| Green Bay Packers - JasonM | 9 B.J. Raji | DE/OLB Everette Brown | -34 |
| San Francisco 49ers - Harry Feltersnatch | 10 Michael Crabtree | QB Matt Stafford | +9 |
| Buffalo Bills - ArrowDread | 11 Aaron Maybin | LB Rey Maualuga | -27 |
| Denver Broncos - Keyser Sose | 12 Knowshon Moreno | DE Brian Orakpo | -1 |
| Washington Redskins - Official Arrowhead Pride Parade | 13 Brian Orakpo | T Michael Oher | -10 |
| New Orleans Saints - cmpotter | 14 Malcolm Jenkins | CB Vontae Davis | -11 |
| Houston Texans - ChiefsDude | 15 Brian Cushing | CB Malcolm Jenkins | +1 |
| San Diego Chargers - Helmets | 16 Larry English | DE Tyson Jackson | +13 |
| New York Jets - NJChief | 17 Josh Freeman | QB Mark Sanchez | +12 |
| Chicago Bears - Holmeslice | 18 Robert Ayers | QB Josh Freeman | +1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers - madtheory | 19 Jeremy Maclin | DT Peria Jerry | -4 |
| Detroit Lions - UCrawford | 20 Brandon Pettigrew | DE Aaron Maybin | +9 |
| Philadelphia Eagles - Chiefsfan717 | 21 Alex Mack | TE Brandon Pettigrew | +1 |
| Minnesota Vikings - kcsno56 | 22 Percy Harvin | WR Hakeem Nicks | -5 |
| New England Patriots - connerman | 23 Michael Oher | RB Chris Wells | -8 |
| Atlanta Falcons - RedNose | 24 Peria Jerry | LB Clay Matthews | -2 |
| Miami Dolphins - shraggyj | 25 Vontae Davis | LB Brian Cushing | +10 |
| Baltimore Ravens - Ben S | 26 Clay Matthews | CB Alphonso Smith | -11 |
| Indianapolis Colts - craig in calgary | 27 Donald Brown | LB James Laurinaitis | -8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles - Chiefsfan717 | 28 Eric Wood | OT Eben Britton | -11 |
| New York Giants - ChiefsFan90s | 29 Hakeem Nicks | WR Darrius Heyward-Bay | +22 |
| Tennessee Titans - Lvl.99 | 30 Kenny Britt | C Alex Mack | +9 |
| Arizona Cardinals - THE_TRUTH | 31 Chris Wells | RB Knowshon Moreno | +19 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers - McWhirt33 | 32 Evander Hood | CB/S Sean Smith |
As you can imagine, there weren't very many picks by the Arrowhead Pride faithful that were right on in this past weekend's NFL draft. Lots of inexplicable drops to the second round by first round prospects threw our whole mock draft out of whack.
Here is how to read the chart. Basically, the closer to zero the better, with a negative number meaning the AP mock drafter "reached" for that pick compared to where the player fell in the actual draft. A positive number means good value was had for that pick. I subtracted the real draft position from AP's draft position to get these numbers.
Basically, negative is bad and positive is good. The second round is after the jump.
Here are some stats on the AP Mock Draft v. the real thing:
Right on
Four people got their picks dead on - Lanier63 (#2 overall, OT Jason Smith to the Rams), mistamic (#6 overall, OT Andre Smith to the Bengals), ChiefsFan90s (#45 overall, LB Clint Sintim to the Giants) and ChiefsFan717 (#53 overall, RB LeSean McCoy to the Eagles). Not too shabby in this draft.
Biggest Reaches
Our main man THE_TRUTH was in a league of his own with this one. His selection of C A.Q. Shipley with the #63 pick in our mock ended up coming far too early. Shipley ended up going in the 7th round with the #236 pick. That comes to a reach factor of -173. We still love him though.
DThomasReigns was next up on the reach list. Oklahoma G Duke Robinson fell all the way to the 27th pick of the 5th rounder. The reach factor ended up being -124.
The next three big reaches before the numbers dropped off were ChiefsFan90s selecting OT Herman Johnson at #60 (reach of -107), RedNose selecting CB Victor Harris (reach of -102) and 808NanZ808 taking OL Fenuki Tupa at #59 (reach of -100).
Non-reaches
Not including those who nailed their picks, we only had seven commenters who did not end up reaching for their mock draft picks. They are Holmeslice (CB Malcolm Jenkins at #15), Chiefsfan717 (TE Branden Pettigrew at #21), JasonM (DT Ron Brace at #41), PSUkegreen (WR Mohammed Massaquoi at #52), Lanier63 (DT Evander Hood at #35) and finally saskwatch (DT Fili Moala at #61). Nice work fellas.
We'll do it again next year
Many thanks to everyone who participated this year. Every pick came in on time and the write ups were excellent. For those interested in last year's mock draft v. the real thing, stag was nice enough to do that post back in August.
Click over for the second round results and grade the draft in the poll below.
| Pick | Team | Actual Selection | AP Selection | Reach |
| 1(33) | Detroit Lions - UCrawford | 33 Louis Delmas | CB Darius Butler | -8 |
| 2(34) | New England Patriots (From Kansas City) - connerman | 34 Patrick Chung | DE Robert Ayers | +16 |
| 3(35) | St. Louis Rams - Lanier63 | 35 James Laurinaitis | DT Evander Hood | +3 |
| 4(36) | Cleveland Browns - HIV2Elway | 36 Brian Robiskie | DE Connor Barwin | -10 |
| 5(37) | Seattle Seahawks - mikvogel | 37 Alphonso Smith | OT William Beatty | -23 |
| 6(38) | Cincinnati Bengals - mistamic | 38 Rey Maualuga | C Max Unger | -11 |
| 7(39) | Jacksonville Jaguars - DThomasReigns | 39 Eben Britton | G Duke Robinson | -124 |
| 8(40) | Oakland Raiders - mushin | 40 Ron Brace | T Phil Loadholt | -14 |
| 9(41) | Green Bay Packers - JasonM | 41 Darius Butler | DT Ron Brace | +1 |
| 10(42) | Buffalo Bills - ArrowDread | 42 Jairus Byrd | DE Michael Johnson | -28 |
| 11(43) | San Francisco 49ers - Harry Feltersnatch | 43 Everette Brown | DE/LB Larry English | +27 |
| 12(44) | Miami Dolphins (From Washington) - shraggyj | 44 Pat White | WR Kenny Britt | +14 |
| 13(45) | New York Giants (From New Orleans) - ChiefsFan90s | 45 Clint Sintim | LB Clint Sintim | 0 |
| 14(46) | Houston Texans - ChiefsDude | 46 Connor Barwin | FS Louis Delmas | +13 |
| 15(47) | New England Patriots (From San Diego) - connerman | 47 Michael Mitchell | DE/OLB Paul Kruger | -10 |
| 16(48) | Denver Broncos (From Texans) - Keyser Sose | 48 Darcel McBath | RB Donald Brown | +21 |
| 17(49) | Chicago Bears - Holmeslice | 49 Max Unger | C Jonathan Luigs | -57 |
| 18(50) | Cleveland Browns (From Tampa Bay) - HIV2Elway | 50 Mohamed Massaquoi | RB Shonn Green | -15 |
| 19(51) | Dallas Cowboys - chiefsfan1384 | 51 Andy Levitre | SS William Moore | -4 |
| 20(52) | New York Jets - PSUkegreen | 52 David Veikune | WR Mohamed Massaquoi | +2 |
| 21(53) | Philadelphia Eagles - Chiefsfan717 | 53 LeSean McCoy | RB LeSean McCoy | 0 |
| 22(54) | Minnesota Vikings - kcsno56 | 54 Phil Loadholt | C Eric Wood | +26 |
| 23(55) | Atlanta Falcons - RedNose | 55 William Moore | CB Victor Harris | -102 |
| 24(56) | Miami Dolphins - shraggyj | 56 Fili Moala | CB Jarius Byrd | +14 |
| 25(57) | Baltimore Ravens - Ben S | 57 Paul Kruger | WR Brian Robiskie | +21 |
| 26(58) | New England Patriots - connerman | 58 Sebastian Vollmer | DL Jarron Gilbert | -10 |
| 27(59) | Carolina Panthers - 808NaNz808 | 59 Sherrod Martin | OL Fenuki Tupou | -100 |
| 28(60) | New York Giants - ChiefsFan90s | 60 William Beatty | OT Herman Johnson | -107 |
| 29(61) | Indianapolis Colts - saskwatch | 61 Sean Smith | DT Fili Moala | +5 |
| 30(62) | Tennessee Titans - Lvl.99 | 62 Sen'Derrick Marks | LB Cody Brown | -1 |
| 31(63) | Arizona Cardinals - THE_TRUTH | 63 Cody Brown | C A.Q. Shipley | -173 |
| 32(64) | Pittsburgh Steelers - McWhirt33 | 64 Richard Quinn | OT T.J. Lang | -45 |
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I'd like to point out
If you read my write-up, I said that I thought Harvin would fall to the Vikings, and that they’d take him.
I also said if Loadholt fell to them in the 2nd round, they’d take him as well.
Just wanted to stroke my ego a bit.
by kcsno56 on Apr 27, 2009 10:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lots of fun.
And I don’t want to gloat, but I got the second round pick right for Indy, but they decided to trade up 5 spots to make sure they got him. It is not might fault Polian got restless. I told him Moala would be there at 61 but he did not believe me.
by saskwatch on Apr 27, 2009 10:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well at least my second rounder was picked this weekend :)
Al Davis drafted a 2nd rounder that had a zero rating….totally off the board
AND even more importantly, I picked Moreno over Wells and even though many of the mock drafts had it the other way around, I stuck with Moreno being the better pick….and he got picked earlier as I anticipated.
Now I’m worried about Moreno playing for Denver. I hope he doesn’t play up to my expectations against the Chiefs. That would bum me out :(
Bill Parcell’s: "You are what your record says you are."
"My job is not to collect talent, but to build a team. Individuals make the Pro Bowl. Teams win championships. That is our goal."—Chiefs GM Scott Pioli.
by THE_TRUTH on Apr 27, 2009 10:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
the cable guy
Dude I swear he has no say to nothing that entire raider organization is in shambles of my god how do you pass on crabtree how thats just crazy talk the guy they got has speed but the worst hands oh man . I bet all davis just looks at the speed and picks dont care whos name is behind it and then cable isnt going to argue at all that guy is the king of tools he should just be called tom the tool man cable.
FOUR F'S FIND UM FEEL UM FUGUM FORGET UM.
by sexassassin on Apr 27, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I tried to trade down three times to get Alex Mack, I really did.
I do not snort the coke I only smoke...sensimilla.
by HIV 2 Elway on Apr 27, 2009 10:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sanchez to the Jets
Just like I picked it…..even though they had to move up to get him.
by NJ_Chief on Apr 27, 2009 10:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I picked that as well
and to be perfectly honest, had they offered the same package to the Chiefs like they did to the Browns, Pioli should have taken it.
I believe they actually did regardless of what Pioli said. Since Seattle was indicating they would go after Sanchez, it only makes sense that they would jump ahead with the offer to get our pick.
Bill Parcell’s: "You are what your record says you are."
"My job is not to collect talent, but to build a team. Individuals make the Pro Bowl. Teams win championships. That is our goal."—Chiefs GM Scott Pioli.
by THE_TRUTH on Apr 27, 2009 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did pretty bad, but it was fun.
Props to JasonM who picked Ron Brace, and PSUkegreen who got Mo Massaquoi in the 2nd. I disagreed with your choices and thought these guys would be taken much later, but you proved to be very close in projecting their value.
by RedNose on Apr 27, 2009 11:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I guessed correctly on the Andre Smith pick. AWESOME!
I don't have a girlfriend. I just know a lady who would be really mad if she heard me say that. -Mitch Hedberg
by mistamic on Apr 28, 2009 1:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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