Breaking Down the Tony Gonzalez Trade
We're almost six hours into the post-Tony Gonzalez era in Kansas City so I hope those of you who heard the news this afternoon have had ample time to digest what this trade means for the Kansas City Chiefs. I touch on a few topics below that came up in the waking hours of the trade. I'm reading your FanPosts and comments and I think I've arrived at some pretty reasonable conclusions about this trade.
Was the compensation fair?
Yes, this 2010 second round pick the Chiefs got from the Falcons for Gonzalez was completely fair. There's wiggle room for debate about the Falcons to throwing in say a 5th round pick but that's about it. No way is TG worth a first rounder. Don't even go there. Even the addition of a 5th round pick is a bit unnecessary to me.
One baseline I'm using to justify this compensation is the TE Kellen Winslow trade that happened in late February of this year. Winslow was traded to the Bucs from the Browns for Cleveland's 2009 2nd rounder and their 2010 5th round pick. Kellen Winslow will be 26-years old by the time the 2009 season starts, quite a bit younger than the soon to be 33-year old Gonzalez. I'm not going to argue that Winslow is better than Gonzalez - that's crazy. My point is that Winslow is one of the top tight ends in the league and that a 2nd round pick and a 5th round pick was the market value at that time. That was only a month and a half ago. The market didn't dramatically change, especially for tight ends. A tight end who only wants to play three or four more years, like Tony Gonzalez, cannot intelligently expect to be traded for any higher value than the 25-year old Winslow was traded for in February. He could be traded for close or at that value, but certainly not higher.
We love Tony G. It's that the market for tight ends doesn't deliver big time draft picks in a trade. It's just the way the league works. Tight ends are less valuable than most positions on the football field. And they are less valuable to most teams than Tony Gonzalez was to the Chiefs.
So while in the heads of Chiefs fans Tony Gonzalez is the greatest Chief of all time who will never age, the reality is that his trade value is at its highest right now and it will almost assuredly be going down in the coming years. Gotta strike while you can. I'm glad Pioli did.
Pass catching tight ends aren't that valuable to Scott Pioli and Todd Haley
You know I took this point from Western Chief so I'm just going to quote his post:
I believe Tony was traded because if you look at the Patriot / Cardinal way on offense you don't need a superstar TE. Your big weapons consist primarily of a great #1 wideout (Randy Moss / Larry Fitzgerald) a decent #2 (Anquan Bolden / Joey Galloway / Greg Lewis) and a sold slot (Wes Welker / Steve Breaston).
My immediate reaction was to go check out the New England teams Pioli was the personnel guy for and see how the tight ends fared in those offenses. What I found reiterated Western Chief's point. Here are the total receptions by tight ends for the New England Patriots since 2000, the year before Pioli became head of the personnel department:
| Year |
Receptions
by TEs |
| 2000 | 35 |
| 2001 | 9 |
| 2002 | 42 |
| 2003 | 66 |
| 2004 | 46 |
| 2005 | 53 |
| 2006 | 70 |
| 2007 | 45 |
| 2008 | 31 |
I mean, that's a pretty clear indicator that Scott Pioli and the systems of the teams he worked for didn't value the offensive power of a tight end as much as the Chiefs have in the last twelve years or so.
Todd Haley's offense in Arizona last year gave a whopping 11 catches to tight ends. In 2007 Leonard Pope had all 22 tight end catches for the Cardinals.
Quite clearly, we're dealing with two men who don't feel the need to have a superstar tight end on their team. Or even an offensive threat of a tight end. No wonder they parted with the greatest tight end of all time within months of taking their jobs. The offenses they run don't require awesome pass catching tight ends.
WesternChief sums up the hypothetical conversation for us:
I'm guessing but I think Pioli and Haley listened to the Falcon's offer of a second round pick next year and they compared that with the offense they are going to run and they made the trade because Tony wasn't going to be as big a part of this offense as he was in year's past.
I'm almost positive that was part of the decision making process. Good point, WesternChief.
The deal isn't over
You didn't expect Scott Pioli to deal Gonzalez and be done with it? Right before the draft no less, did you? Well shame on you. This man is the master of wheelin' and dealin' on draft day. I'll let the man himself tell you what may happen to the 2010 pick the Chiefs got today:
"The pick that is the 2010 pick right now is, as we sit here, could very well be a pick that’s a second round in 2010 but that pick, as you all know can be used in a lot of different ways and can somehow end up being a pick that’s used in the draft this year. So, in terms of us continuing to bring in players and build a roster with players it may be that pick will be the Falcons pick next year or it may be a different pick this year or several picks."
I'm already finding myself saying Hold on when it's come to some of these Pioli deals. The man clearly thinks a few moves ahead and we need to wait and see what happens with this "extra" pick come this weekend.
Tony wanted out of KC, whether he told Pioli or not
This is the worst kept secret in the Kansas City Chiefs front office. Clark Hunt said back in March that the Chiefs had decided to hold on to Tony Gonzalez. During the owner's meetings, Scott Pioli said that Tony had not requested a trade despite a person close to Gonzalez stating earlier that TG would not mind being traded.
"If the Chiefs can't make a deal with the right team, then Tony will be fine with that," The AP was told. "He is not demanding a trade. But if the right deal can be made, he very much would like to be traded."
All you need to read in that quote is the last clause. Come on. Tony G wanted out and we all knew it. That was definitely a factor in the decision making process. Not a deal breaker but probably 15% of the motivation was the fact that Tony wasn't happy in KC.
A second round pick is a second round pick
Maybe it's just me but I don't really mind that the pick is for next year's draft. A second round pick is a second round pick, right? Is this year's second round of the draft supposed to be better than next year's? I don't know and I doubt you could accurately tell that right now.
As Peter King said in his Twitter feed (The comment about BBQ coffee is directed at The PARADE's Twitter feed. Seriously), the Chiefs now have three draft picks in the (likely) first 55 picks. I wouldn't be surprised if we were somehow able to add one more to that mix this weekend. 2010 is looking better already people.
This is what the Patriots do. That's why they always have a plethora of first day picks, just like this year. They wheel. They deal. They don't have an issue parting with fan favorites whose absence will inevitably help the team in the long run.
Be patient. I know our need for immediate gratification wasn't served by this trade but it will pay off next year.
To sum it up...
Tony Gonzalez's value was at it's highest possible point...He didn't even want to play in KC anymore...the new coaching staff doesn't even value pass catching tight ends that much...we still haven't seen the full gamut of this trade...and the compensation was on par with a similar, recent deal. Done.
Finally...amidst all of the criticism and analysis...Thank you, Tony
Tony Gonzalez was the greatest Kansas City Chief of my life time and possibly the greatest Chief of all time. He was an elite tight end. He was an elite receiver. He broke records and invested his time in his community like few have. He also politely declines to fight local KC area wrestlers. Heck, he'll save your life even if you're a Chargers fan. What a classy guy.
Thanks Tony. You will always be a Kansas City Chief.
12 recs |
69 comments
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Comments
You know Chris
I could do it again… But I won’t =P
Braccae illae virides cum subucula rosea et tunica Caledonia-quam elenganter concinnatur!
by Buck'O on Apr 23, 2009 7:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post Chris. Rec'd
People can either chose to look at this as TG fans OR they can view this as a Chiefs business decision.
Bill Parcell’s: "You are what your record says you are."
"My job is not to collect talent, but to build a team. Individuals make the Pro Bowl. Teams win championships. That is our goal."—Chiefs GM Scott Pioli.
by THE_TRUTH on Apr 23, 2009 7:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
It should all be about business. I just want to win. Winning solves everything.
by Chris Thorman on Apr 23, 2009 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed regarding the Winning
If we think of this in terms of the context of the whole off season what Pioli did is trade Tony G and a second round pick for Matt Cassel and a second round pick. You ALWAYS take a franchise QB over a franchise TE. As great as Tony G was, he doesn’t touch the ball every offensive play. QB is the most important position in all of sports—it is the equivalent of a starting pitcher who starts every game. The only question is whether Cassel will turn out to be franchise QB.
Beat the Donkeys!!
by schraggyj on Apr 23, 2009 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the end
Tony was only going to play for the Chiefs another year. Maybe two. I know he SAYS he wants to play for the Falcons for another 3 or 4 years, but that completely flies in the face of everything he has said before.
The facts are that Tony is getting up there in age and though he hasn’t been injury prone yet, he’s probably not too far away from it. Look at how quick Donnie Edwards went from Cal Ripken to Brodie Croyle.
Aside from all the great points Chris and Western Chief made, the fact is the 2nd rounder we get next year could be a huge contributor to this team 10 years after Tony G is retired.
by ChiefDJ on Apr 23, 2009 7:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, very busy
But mostly sitting back and trying to get a bead on Pioli and Haley.
Always takes me a while to warm up to a new coach.
by ChiefDJ on Apr 23, 2009 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As I said in the other thread
The more draft picks you give Pioli, the quicker he’ll turn the Chiefs into a contender.
by NESilver on Apr 23, 2009 7:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like that
Just because it is a 2010 second round pick right now, does not mean it could not turn out to be a draft pick this year. Always thinking a couple of steps ahead.. Hey nice to hear from DJ again.
Now hopefully this team is fun to watch again! Thanks Scott, Clark!!
by Eric Allen on Apr 23, 2009 7:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Just think
even if they don’t use that pick to trade up THIS year, how happy we will be to have it in next years draft.
Patriots did this kind of thing all the time. They had no problem trading for next years picks and sometimes trading them for the next year after. Gave them a lot of freedom to just pick damn good players instead of whoever just happened to be there when it was their turn.
by ChiefDJ on Apr 23, 2009 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This year is a good example.
The Patriots have three second rounders. One of them is a pick we traded with the Chargers (I think it’s 58 overall). That pick was originally a low 2007 third rounder, was traded to Oakland for a 2008 third rounder + something else (naturally, the Raiders sucked and gave us a high third rounder), and we then traded that pick last year to the Chargers for a 2nd rounder this year.
It’s fun to watch Belichick and Pioli move all around the draft board whenever they want.
by NESilver on Apr 23, 2009 7:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Belichick
Supposedly has a better understanding of other teams’ needs and knows who they’re targeting so it makes him easier to locate the guy he wants.
I read something the other day that said Schottenheimer used to do mock drafts and got 27 right one year.
by Joel Thorman on Apr 23, 2009 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
one thing
The pats or the Cardinals didn’t have a TE like Tony. So of course their TE didn’t get the catches Tony did. You think Ingram can make up the difference? He is what 36?
by bringbacktheglory on Apr 23, 2009 7:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
2010
Don’t we have a ton of picks in 2010? Jared Allen trade, Lawrence Tynes trade and now this one. I think we are overloaded with 2010 and will use some of these to get back up into the 2009 2nd round
by patrickparish on Apr 23, 2009 7:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lawrence Tynes? What the?
No, we have no other extra picks in 2010 so far except this one for Tony G.
by ChiefDJ on Apr 23, 2009 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tynes is unstoppable
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Thank thee
by JChief on Apr 23, 2009 7:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am sad as hell
but I’ll get over it.
Go Chiefs!
"When I first got here," said Missouri coach Mike Anderson, "it was 20 minutes of hell and 20 minutes of what the hell are you doing?"
by tigers and chiefs fan on Apr 23, 2009 7:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Right on Chris
I never thought the Chiefs would trade TG but I should have also taken into account that this offensive system will not be the same as last years.
This was a good trade. I never would have been able to do that had the decision been placed in my hands. TG has been on the team as long as I can remember and it will be tough not having him on our team. Best of luck to him.
In Pioli We Trust.
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Thank thee
by JChief on Apr 23, 2009 7:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent Post
It is posts like this that make me glad I stumbled onto this site. I am genuinely excited by what is going on in K.C. right now. I am sad to see Tony G. go. He truly was a class act, but it was time. We are all personally attached to him in a way that a good evaluator of talent, a good manager, cannot be to an employee. I am excited for the draft and for the first season of the new Chiefs dynasty!
by ryan_andersen98 on Apr 23, 2009 7:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post.
Needless to say, I agree 100%. I’m glad some of my hypothesis were confirmed. Keep up the good work. This weekend is going to be a lot of fun.
by WesternChief on Apr 23, 2009 7:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wait
The Pats and the Cardinals don’t have a TE like Tony, So of course they didn’t get the catches Tony had. The 2nd might be good but it might be a bust you never know, but we do know we had guy our new QB could have always counted on. Do you think the 36 year old Ingram can make up for Tony being gone?
by bringbacktheglory on Apr 23, 2009 7:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Engram knows the Pioli/Haley system better than TG so
he just might make up for Tony being gone.
by WesternChief on Apr 23, 2009 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
keep dreaming. Did you see his numbers from last year?
by bringbacktheglory on Apr 23, 2009 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, he was injured.
You also have to take into consideration that we will have a QB that doesn’t try to force feed the TE every throw.
by WesternChief on Apr 23, 2009 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this post
Nice work, Chris. I agree with pretty much everything – it’s hard not to let personal feelings cloud what’s best for the Chiefs in the long run.
by Joel Thorman on Apr 23, 2009 7:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
All I know is...
if the talking heads on ESPN hate the trade, then I LOVE it.
by thejesuslizard on Apr 23, 2009 7:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for trying to make us feel better, but it's still.....

hooah!
by Chief C on Apr 23, 2009 8:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I know
It sucks TG is gone. I’ll miss him too. Trying to take the Pioli/Haley business perspective. It makes it easier to take.
by Chris Thorman on Apr 23, 2009 8:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like the move...
In 1997 we traded up 8 picks to take Tony. We got 12 years of out of this world TE play and on the back end we got a 2nd round pick How is this not the absolute best case scenario?
I do not snort the coke I only smoke...sensimilla.
by HIV 2 Elway on Apr 23, 2009 8:20 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
The only reason you like this post is because....
Its the only bright side to this whole dumbshit deal….Buisness 5%, Ego 5%, Money 10%, at the end of the day you have to play football 80%…..and who beats Tony at that?
by Sea of RED on Apr 23, 2009 8:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Tony is only playing another year or two
So pretty much anyone still playing after that will beat Tony.
by ChiefDJ on Apr 23, 2009 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So everyone will beat tony in 2 years?
So we can just say now that everyone is going to beat our 36 year old Engram that Pioli bought in here?
by bringbacktheglory on Apr 23, 2009 8:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone still playing will be worth more than a guy not playing, yes
I would think that is common sense.
by ChiefDJ on Apr 23, 2009 9:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well,
I guess I will be collecting a particular Falcons card for the next few years.
TG deserves a shot at the bras ring and the Chiefs couldn’t give it to him.
may, just maybe, the Falcons can. I really hope so, just for his sake.
Overall, i had hoped to see TG retire from the Chiefs. It’s pretty rare to see a player spend their whole career on one team. It’s rare to see a player spend as much time on one team as Tony has as it is.
I do believe we will get the satisfaction of seeing Tony into the HOF in a Chiefs jersey. THAT will be too damn cool.
you know damn well there are some AFC West teams that are glad to see TG not coming their way this year.
Big Bear
by bigbearomaha on Apr 23, 2009 8:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You better hope they suck this year.
Hope they take TG to the superbowl in 2010. I don’t want our second to turn into a 3rd.
0-16 Falcons!
"...Said he couldn't go on the American way"
by Jux on Apr 23, 2009 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
wouldn't he feel....
like an idiot if the chiefs went to the big house this year, and the falcons didn’t even make the playoffs?! I know im dreaming but hey, it never hurt anyone.
I know the charger fans are happy about it (live in SD) and some raider fans…AFC West is up for grabs again. I thought we had it in our hands before we let tony go…now im not so sure.
by Wrestler189s on Apr 24, 2009 1:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bottom line is
Everyone is trying to make this deal seem good, for the next 2 years it does nothing but hurt us after that maybe that pick might help us and that is a big might. We are going to miss having him go up for the great catches. I remember people saying that the J Allen trade was good for us with the picks we got, and you see how good our defence was without him. ( 10 sacks)
by bringbacktheglory on Apr 23, 2009 8:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This isn't Carl Petersen.
Also, you are discounting the FACT that Tony wanted out. It was he and Tom Condon that made it known to other teams in the league that he wanted out of KC. If he stayed in KC he would’ve complained about not having Tyler Thigpen under center to force feed him the ball.
Tony was great while he was here but now we got a GM with Super Bowl perspective.
by WesternChief on Apr 23, 2009 8:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And your forgetting that the draft isn't over.
Don’t get too upset until we know for sure what pioli does with that second round pick in this draft.
How can you listen to this man and not have faith that he knows what the hell he is doing?
After all, he does get paid for this.
"...Said he couldn't go on the American way"
by Jux on Apr 23, 2009 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry comment was for bring back the glory
"...Said he couldn't go on the American way"
by Jux on Apr 23, 2009 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dont get me wrong
i have liked the moves Pioli has made this offseason, i just dont agree with this one. We have nobody to take up the slack from Tony being gone and rookie WR don’t get 1000 yards in thier first year most of the time
by bringbacktheglory on Apr 23, 2009 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong..........
Did you watch the video? I’m pretty sure S.PIOLI said T.G did not ask to be traded, in fact i know he did!
by CPT.Caveman on Apr 24, 2009 12:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that comment was for
Western chief
by CPT.Caveman on Apr 24, 2009 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bring back the glory is the exactly right...
sugar coat it, wrap it a crossiant roll (tortita for the Spanish folk), dip it in maple syrup; stick it between big ol titties and pour budweiser all over it and it still turns out like shit….i guess a rookie this year or next year is gonna grab the game and go and be the next 12 time pro bowler???? at the end of the day you play football right? not get your rocks off from developing prospects…
by Sea of RED on Apr 23, 2009 9:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Whats the point of watching the draft now????
Might as well go hibernate until next year….how does Cassell feel about this trade? He plays the game right? His confidence level and enthusiasm should be up to win right? Is any Chiefs excited over this?….they play, Pioli dont, and Haley is just along for the ride……Bad Form, Bad Form.
by Sea of RED on Apr 23, 2009 9:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Easy Captian Hook.
We have enough negative Nancys lurking in these waters.
"...Said he couldn't go on the American way"
by Jux on Apr 23, 2009 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beautiful
We love Tony G…. So while in the heads of Chiefs fans Tony Gonzalez is the greatest Chief of all time who will never age, the reality is that his trade value is at its highest right now and it will almost assuredly be going down in the coming years. Gotta strike while you can.
I will always be a Tony Gonzalez fan, but I’m a Chiefs fan.

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"If there’s a god he’s laughing at us and our football team." - Ben Folds
by webby37 on Apr 23, 2009 9:34 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Dang boy, you went all scientific notation on me!
"If there’s a god he’s laughing at us and our football team." - Ben Folds
by webby37 on Apr 23, 2009 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i know i know...
whatever is in the best interest of the empire, and ive dreaded this day for awhile now…but he was a part of the core group and theres alot iof iffs when there was never any iffs with him…just lob it up and its 6
by Sea of RED on Apr 23, 2009 9:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it’s just me but I don’t really mind that the pick is for next year’s draft. A second round pick is a second round pick, right? Is this year’s second round of the draft supposed to be better than next year’s? I don’t know and I doubt you could accurately tell that right now.
I’ve heard several “draft analysts” say that overall, this is kind of a weaker draft class…as much as it sucks to lose Tony and not get compensation this weekend, if they’re right, , maybe it’s better that our pick is in 2010
Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.
by PVChiefsfan on Apr 23, 2009 9:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Right
The Falcons won 11 games last year. Now they’re playing the NFC East and won’t spend half the season surprising any teams. I think they’ll be worse next year. It’s an investment that should pay off.
by Joel Thorman on Apr 23, 2009 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Don Pioli speaks
“Sometimes your best investments are the ones you don’t make.”
I'm currently reading "One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest" and it feels like we got ourselves a McMurphy on our hands....wheelin' and dealin'
by Chiefs_swagger on Apr 23, 2009 10:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I disagree........
Just having T.G in the line-up make’s it that much easier for Ryan! I think they will be better than they where last yr simply because having T.G make’s the d-fense’s account for him when he’s in the game!
by CPT.Caveman on Apr 24, 2009 12:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention they play in a weaker division
playing the Saints 2x = the Raiders 2x, Bucs = all kinds of rebuilding, Carolina is the only competition for them.
by Your_Moms_Boyfriend on Apr 24, 2009 9:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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