Draft Day Expectations for the Chiefs
And with the third pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs...
Trade down?
Select....Eugene Monroe? Aaron Curry? Mark Sanchez?
Hold the pick?
In the last four months, we've been over pretty much every single Kansas City Chiefs draft scenario you can imagine. And you know what? I still have zero clue what is going to go down in the next two days and throughout the weekend.
It's typical April Liar's Month in the NFL...nobody knows anything.
So while we get excited over the possibiltiy of the Chiefs drafting Aaron Curry or we write about a really great trade scenario that gets our second round pick back, what exactly are your expectations come Saturday and Sunday?
Do you expect to be blown away and completely surprised by what happens on Saturday and Sunday? Or even Friday? Wheelin' and dealin' perhaps?
Or do you have a gut feeling deep inside that Scott Pioli and Todd Haley will end up having to make "safe", less sexy moves this weekend? I say having to make because everyone knows by now that Pioli and Haley would desperately like to get out of picking at #3.
Here's what I think is going to go down in the first round of the draft for the Chiefs. I think Matt Stafford goes to Detroit at the #1 spot. St. Louis will draft one of the top left tackles - Monroe or Smith.
And for the Chiefs....
I don't think we draft LB Aaron Curry. I really do think that Scott Pioli and Todd Haley are comfortable using older linebackers, at least for the time being. I know the Patriots drafted LB Jerod Mayo last year with the #10 pick, which does make me stop and think if Pioli will make a similar move this year, which I don't think he will.
My prediction? Curry falls out of the top five.
Okay, so what do I think will happen with the Chiefs? I think some team panics and trades up with the Chiefs to get QB Mark Sanchez. I think Seattle is likely to take Sanchez with the #4 pick, forcing teams to move ahead of them. What team? I'm not really sure. There are a few that definitely need QBs and are willing to gamble.
The Chiefs will drop back into the 10-20 pick range and have a number of players and positions to choose from that don't carry the albatross of being the #3 pick around their neck. We'll get our second round pick back but I'm not sure where in the second round exactly.
I think the Chiefs are only going to make one trade this weekend and that will be for that #3 pick.
Of course I say that and we still have Brian Waters and Tony Gonzalez out there, just waiting to put in a package deal for picks. You know what? That's probably the most likely scenario actually. Trade out of the #3 pick with a team that wants QB Mark Sanchez and pick up more picks by dealing Tony Gonzalez and Brian Waters.
That's my official, on the record expectations for this weekend. No more Gonzalez. No more Waters. And the Chiefs will end up drafting nine players.
I know we've gone "on the record" probably a hundred times here concerning the draft but with two days to go, how do you really see things panning out, all insane logic aside?
Take a deep breath and let us know what you think is going to happen in the real draft world, instead of in the crazy insane mock draft/Liar's Month fantasy dimension.
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52 comments
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Comments
My Prediction
Cheifs don’t find a trading partner at #3 and with the selection take Tyson Jackson. Pioli’s reputation as an out of the box thinker is discussed incessantly.
by rustdog on Apr 23, 2009 7:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It'll be pretty funny to me
If we take Tyson Jackson at #3, and people that don’t want Curry are happy about it, because you know they say he can’t rush the passer…of course, Tyson Jackson’s job was to rush the passer…every passing down, and he had 4.5 sacks his senior year and 4 sacks his junior year. Curry was almost never asked to blitz.
I’ll admit, he’s a perfect fit for our 4-3 Under, but I can’t see Pioli taking him at #3.
I do agree with you that we won’t find a trade partner, look, we all want it to happen, but its time everyone realizes the odds are against it. I don’t want APnation to be sad come Sat. morning if we can’t move down and end up with Curry or Monroe. Both would be fine choices and would help the team immeadiately.
by kcsno56 on Apr 23, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i won't be sad
because it’s going to happen. plenty of people wouldn’t mind having the #3, but because no one really wants to pay the money for a #3 i think we’ll get less then market value for it, but it will happen.
by Leaf on Apr 23, 2009 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't see how you guys can all be so confident
Chris in particular…and I’ve got lots of respect for you.
How can you guys think that something that hasn’t happened in 6 years will happen this year? Teams every year want to trade down. Yesterday, it came out, that essentially 7 of the top 8 teams are actively trying to move back. What does that tell you about the top draft choices if no one wants to pay them? Why would you think that this year, while rookie contracts will be even higher, that some team is going to break the trend and move up? Especially when most experts consider this to be a down draft, especially at the top.
Is it possible, sure its possible, Snyder in Washington is our best hope, but is it likely, hell no. I hope it happens like everyone else, but as good as Pioli is, he’s not a magician. He can offer up the #3 pick, even below chart value, but that doesn’t mean anyone else will want it.
Now, TG and Waters…thats about a 50-50 proposition. I don’t claim to know what Pioli’s thinking there, if he wants to move either of them, he’ll find takers. Probably end up with a 2nd round offer for TG and a 3rd for Waters. My guess is one of them goes, but I don’t really have a clue, because I don’t think there is any way to know how highly Pioli/Haley value the two of them.
by kcsno56 on Apr 23, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
IMO
The weakness at the top of this draft actually works in favor of trades happening. Every team will have a couple of top 10 prospects they think are can’t miss. The fewer players a team likes, the more incentive there is to move up to get one.
by KCSatchmo on Apr 23, 2009 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can see deals happening a little later
Especially at #8, because that contract, is literally half the size of the #3 contract.
You’re right, there will be a team in the teens or early 20’s that has a guy they had ranked #2 on thier board that falls to Jacksonville, and they’ll be able to move back.
But no one will see #3 as a ‘value’ because thier #1 guy fell to us. Still too much money.
by kcsno56 on Apr 23, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You may be right
It does help our cause that there are 2 QBs and 2 OTs that may have top 5 value to a few teams. I’ll be happy whether we make a pick or trade it. Just so nice to feel like the leadership we have will actually make a good decision for a change.
by KCSatchmo on Apr 23, 2009 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely
It’s nice going into a draft not stressing about the pick, but instead being excited about it.
by kcsno56 on Apr 23, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahhhh....
basically, if we do get a trade out of 3, then there is no need to trade Tony or Brian. Iam hoping we are out of the rebuilding stage. I think the 3rd overall will come cheap, maybe just move back with a 2nd…..if we get that, theres no need for crying.
by Sea of RED on Apr 23, 2009 7:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The only
prob. I have with trading Tony is not having a “great” number 2 people would drap all over Bowe with no Tony, then not having a burner down field,we wouldnt be able to spread the D at all. Also I think it would be great to have Sanchez, a top OT, and Curry on the board at #3 that would open our trade options even more…..and I could see Curry falling out of the top 5 also very interesting point.
by DT58forever on Apr 23, 2009 7:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I've said it before, I'll say it again.
You don’t bring in a new ‘franchise’ quarterback and then send his best weapon away.
by JacinB on Apr 23, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We won't make any trades
If there were a solid QB available, I could see a desperate team move up to #3 to get him, but I can’t see anyone gambling that much on Sanchez.
Now if the Lions take Curry and Stafford is on the board at #3, I think the chance increases slightly, but it’s still VERY likely that no one will trade up with us.
Marley will be walking soon...she could probably play Linebacker better than some of the guys we had.
by PVChiefsfan on Apr 23, 2009 7:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If Seattle really wants Sanchez
I think they’d try to trade their pick & maybe their #3 or #4 to swap places with us. Beyond that, tradeability of our pick is completely dependent on the perceived interest that Seattle has in Sanchez. I could see San Fran offering their top two picks if they think Seattle will take him.
by jmcgoblue on Apr 23, 2009 8:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And compensate us with...?
A round 2 pick to bump from a 4 to a 3 seems unlikely and we can’t think of anything they have that we would want (other than additional late rounders).
by Official Arrowhead Pride Parade on Apr 23, 2009 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mean if Seattle really wants Sanchez (or one of the tackles for that matter) they may be willing to swap places with us & offer their 3rd or 4th round pick as compensation. If their interest is in Sanchez they’d only be willing to do this if they believe another team was trying to trade with us also.
by jmcgoblue on Apr 23, 2009 8:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not So Deep Thoughts by Jack Handy
1) We find a trading partner for the #3 and move to the middle of the 1st round while acquiring multiple 2nd day picks.
2) Tony G is traded to either Philly or Atlanta for a 2nd round pick or a 3rd & 5th rounder.
3) Waters gets a diaper change and remains a Chief.
Good Day.
by NJ_Chief on Apr 23, 2009 8:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Put a check mark next to item #2 above
The search continues for an extremely large diaper for Mr. Waters.
by NJ_Chief on Apr 23, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade Partners
I’ve read that it’s nearly impossible to find a trade partner when your picking #1, 2, or 3.
The only team behind the Seahawks that desperately needs a QB is the Niners, and they are picking at #10. The cost of moving up to snag a guy that could pontentially fall to the #10 spot anyway may be too great.
by Prime-Time on Apr 23, 2009 8:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lots of wheelin' and dealin' by Pioli and co.
Just not in the 1st round. I don’t think we will be able to move the 3rd pick.
by tevans96 on Apr 23, 2009 8:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I really want to be able to move the 3rd pick.
More than anything. This is my first year watching the draft in detail and I wanna be excited. If we can’t get rid of the 3rd round pick, we don’t pick again until the second day =[
That being said, I think there are decent odds that we will be able to get out of the top 3, but I don’t think it will be a deal where Pioli has turned shit to gold. If anything it will be below chart value, and I’m fine with that.
We just really need some first day bodies.
"...Said he couldn't go on the American way"
by Jux on Apr 23, 2009 8:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree with you Jux
And I think Waters stays here. I really want Tony G. to remain a chief as well. Not sure that will happen.
by Mac'sSon on Apr 23, 2009 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah. I'm not too worried about those too.
I think Pioli will only start trying to deal them if he cant get rid of the #3. I doubt he will start throwing proven vets away just for tons of picks UNLESS we only have one pick the entire first day.
"...Said he couldn't go on the American way"
by Jux on Apr 23, 2009 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We'll try our hardest
But there will be no trade partners for the #3 pick. We take Curry and he’s a stud for years, making players around him better as well. We’ll try to get a 2nd rounder for Tony or Waters but it won’t happen because the best offer we’ll get is a 3rd and 5th and taking that deal could be perceived as caving. I don’t see Pioli doing it. This is not the scenario I want, just the one I see happening.
by The Other Patrick Allen on Apr 23, 2009 8:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I really can't see Pioli picking Curry.
I’m sorry. It just doesn’t seem in character for him. Did you see those pictures of him checking out the o-line? I think if he has to pick at 3 he will sadly get a tackle.
Either way (Curry/Tackle) I’m bummed.
"...Said he couldn't go on the American way"
by Jux on Apr 23, 2009 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can totally see that
An OT or Curry I’d be happy with. I’d just prefer Curry. The only reason I’m not bummed is I’ve already thoroughly prepared myself for the disappointment of not being able to move the pick. But that way if we do trade the pick, I’ll be that much more overjoyed!
by The Other Patrick Allen on Apr 23, 2009 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
YES!! Everyone take the other Patrick Allen’s point of view! It’s exactly what I’m trying to stress.
Get prepared for us not being able to move the pick. Its the most likely scenario, and you don’t want to be crabby if a miracle doesn’t happen. If we stay and take Curry or Monroe or a Smith, realize that we’ve just gotten much better.
Pioli’s already made one insanely good deal this offseason, and has us on the right track.
by kcsno56 on Apr 23, 2009 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
#3 will be the Jets
They don’t have a starting QB, have the cap space and plenty of pics available.
Bill Parcell’s: "You are what your record says you are."
"My job is not to collect talent, but to build a team. Individuals make the Pro Bowl. Teams win championships. That is our goal."—Chiefs GM Scott Pioli.
by THE_TRUTH on Apr 23, 2009 8:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like it
But which pick will they give us for #1? I think their 2nd round pick would be minimum.
by ChiefsDude on Apr 23, 2009 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah and they have the #8 pick as well
So I’d give them the #3 pick and give us #8 pick and D’Brickshaw or even better Cotchery (WR) as well as the maybe a later round pick.
They’re hurting for a QB this year…really bad.
Bill Parcell’s: "You are what your record says you are."
"My job is not to collect talent, but to build a team. Individuals make the Pro Bowl. Teams win championships. That is our goal."—Chiefs GM Scott Pioli.
by THE_TRUTH on Apr 23, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be ecstatic.
If we could trade back to #8 and get Cotchery. I don’t see it happening, though.
by JacinB on Apr 23, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the record
Official Predictions:
1) Mark Sanchez is picked #3 by the 49ers.
2) Tyson Jackson goes to the Chiefs at #10.
3) Brian Waters moves to Buffalo.
4) Tony G becomes a Giant.
by KCSatchmo on Apr 23, 2009 8:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What do we get
In return for the trades?
by The Other Patrick Allen on Apr 23, 2009 8:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I try not to speculate too much
on what we get in return when discussing trade scenarios. The possibilities are just so limitless. However, I’ll dip into that stream since you asked:
We trade #3 for the Niners 1st, 2nd and a 2nd or 3rd next year.
We trade Waters to Buffalo for a 3rd this year and a conditional next year.
TG goes to the Giants for a 3rd and a conditional next year.
Keep in mind that this isn’t what I want to happen, just what I think will happen. Trading Waters in particular would be a mistake imo.
by KCSatchmo on Apr 23, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
those seem plausable
I could definitely see the Niners moving up. Not sure about Tyson Jackson, but it’s realistic. I can definitely see Waters being shopped. The Giants need a big receiver & have two 2nd & two 3rd rounders to work with, so that would make sense as well.
by jmcgoblue on Apr 23, 2009 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
With all the reports
of TG to PhillyI think the Giants will jump back into the mix and outbid them. The Giants were interested last year and the need is far greater this year. I don’t think they’ll be able to trade for Braylon Edwards. So, I think they’ll solve their red zone problems with TG and look for a receiver (Hakeem Nix?) in the draft.
by KCSatchmo on Apr 23, 2009 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My Guesses
1) We say F the draft value chart and move down. Who cares what the pick is “worth”? Pioli will be willing to move down for less than the chart says because he understands getting good fits for the team and filling needs is more important than sticking to an old system.
2) Waters gets traded for a 2/3. As primetime has stated many times before, he is getting old. He wants out and is still a pro bowl player. This is the perfect time to dump him and a top guard with a few good years left could mean a lot to teams that are close.
3)Tony stays. Unless someone offers a low 1 or early 2 plus something next year he is way more valuable to us.
4)Thigpen gets traded and we draft Pat White to take his place. Okay, this one probably isn’t realistic, but I’d like to see it happen. We’ve discussed how important it is for a QB to play a lot of games in college and White has been the starter for almost 4 seasons.
by JComp11 on Apr 23, 2009 9:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I have a man crush on White
but I just can’t see how he fits into our draft unless we get some crazy package for the #3 that includes multiple 1st and 2nd round picks this year.
Just won’t happen…but I’d love it.
by KCSatchmo on Apr 23, 2009 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mafia way
We pick Sanchez, hold him hostage. Then trade him to the highest bidder. I know this is wack. Anything can happen. Cant wait for some football!
by Digital on Apr 23, 2009 9:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
see and i was thinking the mafia way
was take Sanchez, put his feet in concrete, and make him disappear. some times you got to play dirty, that way your competitors still suck next year.
by Leaf on Apr 23, 2009 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All i have to say is if we draft mark sanchez
and use him as trade bate I will really be checking my kansas city credentials at the door that would be the dumbest move in football history that would be = to the mike ditka move where he traded every pick and the next year picks for ricki williams . When i seen that i was like wow this guy better be the next jesus. hahahah
FOUR F'S FIND UM FEEL UM FUGUM FORGET UM.
by sexassassin on Apr 23, 2009 10:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I know pioli isnt that dumb but who knows what that guy has up his sleeves i have
just been seeing a couple guys saying thats what we should do which makes no sense at all.
FOUR F'S FIND UM FEEL UM FUGUM FORGET UM.
by sexassassin on Apr 23, 2009 11:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
not a KC fan but interesting discussion
Can the Chiefs move down if they want? Of course. Absolutely. Guaranteed. But only by lowering their price. They have zero chance of moving down if they hold themselves to the “standard” draft value chart that has been in operation; I just don’t see any team out there being willing to pay that price.
So it really comes down to, what is the minimum Pioli & co. are willing to take in order to move down? How important is moving down for financial reasons to the Chiefs? How important is it to get additional picks?
In fact, let’s play a “what if” scenario. Pretend you’re Pioli. San Fran contacts you about switching #10 for #3 (so they can take Sanchez, presumably). What’s the minimal additional compensation you’d be willing to take from them? Would their third-rounder (#74 overall) be enough? Or would you refuse for anything less than their second-round pick (#43)?
Or how about the same scenario with the Jets? If you switched first round picks with them (thus getting #17), again, what is the minimum you would want back? Would you do the switch and be satisfied getting (only) their second-round pick (#52) back? Or would you demand even more than that?
I’m really curious about your answers; but I am also asking the questions just to make the point: there is no such thing as “can’t” move down. Trust me, if the Chiefs offered to switch places with any other team in the draft (with a first-round pick) and only asked for a 7th rounder in addition, you’d have 29 trading partners lined up in a heartbeat. All it comes down to is, whether you can get enough value in return. And that’s a judgment call.
by JohnPaul on Apr 23, 2009 12:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
So it really comes down to, what is the minimum Pioli & co. are willing to take in order to move down?“Don Pioli” doesn’t deal in absolutes. He’ll get the maximum and give the minimum.
How important is moving down for financial reasons to the Chiefs?Zero. Plenty of cash and an owner (Hunt), that wants his Dad’s trophy.
How important is it to get additional picks?A lot. It’s was the NE way and now the KC way. Also important to note is we’ll take some vet’s off teams hands if Pioli likes the trade for #3.
I’ll address the Jets:
If you switched first round picks with them (thus getting #17), again, what is the minimum you would want back? Would you do the switch and be satisfied getting (only) their second-round pick (#52) back? Or would you demand even more than that?If Sanchez is available and the Jets need him since they don’t have a viable QB, I’d want the 17th pick, third round pick and D’Brickshaw. They can keep the second.
The problem doens’t lie with us moving down, because we can draft almost anyone we want for #3. It’s a win-win for us. We have all those rookies just waiting there.
The problem (for the lower ranked teams), is that a number of them deperately need a QB. So they’re the ones that’ll be bidding…and the highest bid wins.
If the bid isn’t high enough, Pioli won’t bite. We have enough money to pay a #3 and Pioli will not do any team on the board any favors.
Bill Parcell’s: "You are what your record says you are."
"My job is not to collect talent, but to build a team. Individuals make the Pro Bowl. Teams win championships. That is our goal."—Chiefs GM Scott Pioli.
by THE_TRUTH on Apr 23, 2009 1:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Friggin quotes didn't work...sorry
Bill Parcell’s: "You are what your record says you are."
"My job is not to collect talent, but to build a team. Individuals make the Pro Bowl. Teams win championships. That is our goal."—Chiefs GM Scott Pioli.
by THE_TRUTH on Apr 23, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
to clarify....They can keep the second IF we get D"Brickshaw
Bill Parcell’s: "You are what your record says you are."
"My job is not to collect talent, but to build a team. Individuals make the Pro Bowl. Teams win championships. That is our goal."—Chiefs GM Scott Pioli.
by THE_TRUTH on Apr 23, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
realistic?
Do you think the Jets would realistically part with D’Brickshaw?
by JohnPaul on Apr 23, 2009 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Going into the season with two potential starting LB's
who will be 33 & 36 years old would not be prudent without a serious backup plan. The LB corps was in flux when Edwards couldn’t take the field. Especially if the injury bug starts hanging around the two veteran LB’s, we’ll be in the same boat again like last year.
Scott Pioli and Todd Haley are comfortable using older linebackers, at least for the time being.
If we do keep the 3rd pick, and select OLT we won’t be in a position again to address the LB position til the #67 pick. That would not be wise at all considering that we would be playing a hybrid 3-4/4-3. The LB’s would need at least 2-3 years to be groomed to learn how to properly play LB in a 3-4.
Opinions are like A--holes, everyones got one.
by aPacificChief on Apr 23, 2009 1:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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