Accurately Gauging Larry Johnson's Trade Value

Slow day indeed. From the FanPosts. -Chris

Another slow day, so I thought it would be the right time to post this information.

Recently, Chris put up a post examining LJ's trade value. In his text he discusses LJ's value in terms of his recent production and expected production. He also hashes out the trade value of RBs throughout the league in an attempt to determine where LJ's stock might lie. To me, the interesting part was the poll at the end. With an amazing 1400+ respondents, Chiefs fans estimate LJ's trade value to be about a 3-4 rounder with apx 12% suggesting no trade value.

This got me thinking about how other teams' fans might value LJ. To borrow terms from behavioral psychology and application to business performance evaluation, has our fanaticism and proximity introduced (i) a leniency bias or (ii) a central tendency? Have we overvalued him because he is a Chief? Are we attempting to not be as severe (because we want him to be worth more) while simultaneously attempting to not be too lenient (because of his off-the-field issues and recent lack of production, i.e. poor DVOA and DYAR).

To put it another way, perhaps we are not the best group to ask. So, using Chris' conclusions from another recent post, I decided to poll Eagles and Cardinals fans on what they think LJ would be worth to them.

Surprising to me, the results weren't wildly divergent. I'll let you check for yourselves, but I want to point out a few interesting features.

First, the number of respondents who think LJ has no trade value:

  • Eagles: 30%
  • Cardinals: 21%
  • Chiefs: 14%
  • -Seems to be a bit of a leniency bias.

    Second, the peak of the distribution for the three teams:

  • Eagles: 3rd round- 20%
  • Cardinals: 3rd round- 25%
  • Chiefs: 3rd round- 28%
  • -We seem to have nailed his trade value among those who would have him.

    Third, who values him higher (more 1st and 2nd round percentage points)

  • Eagles: 11%
  • Cardinals: 22%
  • Chiefs: 10%
  • -Cardinals. Nearly as many people would be satisfied with a 2nd as with a 3rd. Or, 47% of Cards fans would be happy with a 3rd.

    Of course, these figures don't really mean anything. But, in my analysis it seems we have evaluated LJ's trade value fairly accurately with, perhaps, a slight central tendency. Also, it looks as if the Cardinals would offer a more valuable trade. One interesting thing to note: Eagles fans seem to be more inclined to offer multiple picks, suggesting a more realistic trade scenario and making them the more likely trade partner.

    Please share your thoughts everyone.

    This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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