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Accurately Gauging Larry Johnson's Trade Value

Slow day indeed. From the FanPosts. -Chris

Another slow day, so I thought it would be the right time to post this information.

Recently, Chris put up a post examining LJ's trade value. In his text he discusses LJ's value in terms of his recent production and expected production. He also hashes out the trade value of RBs throughout the league in an attempt to determine where LJ's stock might lie. To me, the interesting part was the poll at the end. With an amazing 1400+ respondents, Chiefs fans estimate LJ's trade value to be about a 3-4 rounder with apx 12% suggesting no trade value.

This got me thinking about how other teams' fans might value LJ. To borrow terms from behavioral psychology and application to business performance evaluation, has our fanaticism and proximity introduced (i) a leniency bias or (ii) a central tendency? Have we overvalued him because he is a Chief? Are we attempting to not be as severe (because we want him to be worth more) while simultaneously attempting to not be too lenient (because of his off-the-field issues and recent lack of production, i.e. poor DVOA and DYAR).

To put it another way, perhaps we are not the best group to ask. So, using Chris' conclusions from another recent post, I decided to poll Eagles and Cardinals fans on what they think LJ would be worth to them.

Surprising to me, the results weren't wildly divergent. I'll let you check for yourselves, but I want to point out a few interesting features.

First, the number of respondents who think LJ has no trade value:

  • Eagles: 30%
  • Cardinals: 21%
  • Chiefs: 14%
  • -Seems to be a bit of a leniency bias.

    Second, the peak of the distribution for the three teams:

  • Eagles: 3rd round- 20%
  • Cardinals: 3rd round- 25%
  • Chiefs: 3rd round- 28%
  • -We seem to have nailed his trade value among those who would have him.

    Third, who values him higher (more 1st and 2nd round percentage points)

  • Eagles: 11%
  • Cardinals: 22%
  • Chiefs: 10%
  • -Cardinals. Nearly as many people would be satisfied with a 2nd as with a 3rd. Or, 47% of Cards fans would be happy with a 3rd.

    Of course, these figures don't really mean anything. But, in my analysis it seems we have evaluated LJ's trade value fairly accurately with, perhaps, a slight central tendency. Also, it looks as if the Cardinals would offer a more valuable trade. One interesting thing to note: Eagles fans seem to be more inclined to offer multiple picks, suggesting a more realistic trade scenario and making them the more likely trade partner.

    Please share your thoughts everyone.

    This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

    3 recs  |  Comment 69 comments |

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    interesting

    nice analysis.

    I’m in the “zero trade value” camp… but I’d be pumped if we got even a 5th round pick for him.

    it’s interesting to see the polls from other teams’ fans…

    by stagdsp on Apr 15, 2009 2:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

    I wouldn't.

    I understand that Larry isn’t worth that much to other teams (trade value). But when a players trade value is significantly lower than his value on our field, we need to keep him.

    Anything less than an third and we will get more out of running him into the ground.

    "...Said he couldn't go on the American way"

    by Jux on Apr 15, 2009 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Agreed

    I do think that Arizona is probably the most likely destination for Larry Johnson if he is tradeable. The Cardinals are in a desperate state for their running game, and if they can’t find a good RB via the draft they’ll probably want to add one (since they likely see themselves as in a narrowing championship window after re-signing Kurt Warner). But I don’t see them giving up a 2009 draft pick for him…if anything I see them waiting until after the draft, and maybe looking at a conditional 2010 pick (based on Johnson’s production).

    If we don’t get much interest after the draft, however, I figure the Chiefs will just dump him and be done with it. And I suspect that most teams know this and so his trade value is pretty much zero.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Man thats just crazy

    The guy goes from one of the best RBs in the league to a low value liability in a matter of a couple of years. oh well….I guess i miss #31

    by Grand Master A on Apr 15, 2009 2:42 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

    That's the way RBs work

    Especially ones with off the field issues. They’re just not valuable anymore.

    by Joel Thorman on Apr 15, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    He Hasn't Been The Same Back Since His 400+ Carry Season Either

    Herm broke him by overuse. Not intentionally, of course, but it was utterly stupid to give Johnson a huge contract in 2007 when nobody thought the Chiefs were really a championship team a) until Johnson had demonstrated that he had no ill-effects from the 2006 season (which we now know wasn’t going to happen) and b) while they still had Johnson under such a market-friendly contract for several years (which meant he was still good trade bait even after 2006 because he was making a relative pittance).

    I’ll say it…Carl Peterson was an idiot for paying him that contract. But then anyone who followed Peterson’s history of contracts over the years shouldn’t really have been surprised.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Keep him and run him into the ground.

    We’ll never get the value, so don’t trade him.

    by Helmets on Apr 15, 2009 3:02 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

    The Chiefs Won't Get The Value If We Keep Him

    If he plays for the Chiefs again in the regular season, his contract goes back to being guaranteed and it costs us if we cut him. If we dump him before then we don’t get penalized at all. There’s absolutely no good reason to keep him since he’s in decline and there’s no penalty to us for throwing him away.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    run him up

    the flag pole and see who wants him. then if there are no taking, run him into the ground.

    by kcfansandiego on Apr 15, 2009 3:04 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

    the whole "run him into the ground" will not work

    unless you want to see run run pass punt over and over again

    by Grand Master A on Apr 15, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Croyle isnt

    our QB anymore remember…

    by DT58forever on Apr 15, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Running on first and second down actually worked pretty well when we had a good o-line

    I am not forgetting that we had the Priest either. As much as I loved Priest Holmes, our line made him look a lot better than he actually was.
    LJ would look just as good as he used to with a stellar O-line.

    by Chiefsfan1970 on Apr 15, 2009 3:28 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

    Thats any back

    but Priest was a back that could adjust his running style L.J. I like him but if there isnt a hole he doesnt make one on his own Priest had the ability to do that. What made him great at that was his Patience!

    Plus Priest can break things outside L.J. cant cut like him hes is north and south.
    Priest was always behind great running backs in there prime.
    Texas-Ricky Williams
    Baltimore-Jamal Lewis

    by DT58forever on Apr 15, 2009 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Why are we still talking abou this?

    LJ’s trade value is ZERO. Get it? Zero.

    He is old for a running back, has off field problems, openly speaks out against the team to the media non-stop and is possibly facing more suspension time.

    He has had 351 carries for 1,433 yards in the last TWO years and is averaging 4.08 yards per carry over those two years.

    He also has a fat contract.

    No one really wants to deal with that crap.

    Not to mention the fact that if the Chiefs KEEP Johnson, they look ok at RB and if they trade him, unless it is for Adrian Peterson (keep dreaming) they are suspect.

    You keep Johnson and you have a Vet with talent and a little bit left in the tank, a young 24 year old in Kolby Smith with fresh legs if he comes off the injury ok and Jamaal Charles as a speed and recieving threat. You platoon these guys and make use of their talents and you have, in my estimation a pretty good running game.

    This team has a newyoung QB and I am almost certain there is going to be offensive line help coming. Good line = good protection AND a solid running game.

    Keep Larry. He’s a fine stop gap. Fix the line. Draft a QB next year.

    Paddy

    by Patrick Allen on Apr 15, 2009 4:34 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

    If The Chiefs Keep Johnson

    His contract becomes guaranteed again and he can continue to be the same problem child he was before (because we’ll take a cap hit for trading or dumping him) and he’ll still get paid. Not to mention that we’d end up paying him while he was suspended.

    Why do you “Keep Larry” advocates keep ignoring this?

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    UCrawford

    Perhaps I don’t understand the contract situation. I was under the impression that we are still on the hook for his contract, so why no use him.

    If we cut him now do we have to pay him?

    Obviously if we trade him then his new team pays him.

    The only reason I am suggesting keeping him is because if we have to pay him we might as well use him.

    Paddy

    by Patrick Allen on Apr 15, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    We're Not On The Hook For His Guaranteed Money In The Contract

    As long as he’s gone by the time the games start (or possibly pre-season…I’m not entirely sure). If Johnson plays for the Chiefs in 2009, though, his contract gets reinstated.

    What the Chiefs didn’t get in the judgment was Larry Johnson paying back the guaranteed money he already received last year while he was suspended (which the Chiefs wanted). That may be where some of the confusion came in.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Basically

    If we cut him now, we don’t have to pay him a cent.

    If we keep him this season, we have to pay him the same as if the hearing never happened and we’re back to the same crap as last year (where he acted like a spoiled child because of the guaranteed money).

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    And If A Team Trades For Him

    All they’d have to pay him (assuming they keep him) is his non-guaranteed salary and (I don’t think) we have to take a cap hit for the guaranteed money if he’s traded. Trading him is really the best of all possible worlds for KC in that scenario.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Trading him is the best scenerio.

    But you honestly think if they can’t get a decent trade offer that they are just going to cut him?

    Not if we are still this under cap after the draft.

    "...Said he couldn't go on the American way"

    by Jux on Apr 15, 2009 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Yes

    Just dumping him made no sense before the hearing because they’d incur a big cap hit for doing so with the guaranteed money he’d get (and would have to still spend money to find a replacement). Now that the contract’s invalidated, they can dump him without any penalty at all and sign several players with the money they’d otherwise be paying Larry Johnson. They can just walk away from Larry and all his headaches.

    And besides, do you know of any company who’d willing pay a disgruntled, underachieving, employee several million dollars when they don’t have to? Most of the time that you see a problem child staying with his team in the NFL, it’s only because it costs the team money to get rid of him. That’s not a problem with LJ…and I don’t think Clark Hunt is so in love with him that he’s willing to pay a contract that size to a guy just so he can be an annoyance for another year or two.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    AIG Was Actually Obligated By Contract To Pay Out Those Bonuses

    And the feds knew that going in…they just conveniently “forgot” about it when they had to answer to the press.

    They didn’t just give away money because they felt like it…AIG’s problem was incompetence, not theft.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    And Incompetence

    Was the reason it was stupid for the federal government to give them more money (same with auto companies, mortgage defaulters and everyone else who got a bailout). Dumbest thing you can do with someone who pisses away their money is to give them more money to piss away.

    You can’t spend away “stupid”. :)

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    +1 on we shouldn't have given them the money for nincompoops

    you don't have to win and you don't need to fight. Supertramp

    by Steve_Chiefs on Apr 15, 2009 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Seems like some of the people I work with

    Accounting rules are the stupidest thing I ever heard of.
    If it doesn’t pass the SNIFF test…

    you don't have to win and you don't need to fight. Supertramp

    by Steve_Chiefs on Apr 15, 2009 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Also
    Draft a QB next year.

    Why would the Chiefs plan to draft a QB next year when they’ve just traded for a fairly young QB this year that they think will be their franchise guy?

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    yeah

    my mistake in the QB thing.

    Paddy

    by Patrick Allen on Apr 15, 2009 4:43 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

    Fair Enough

    That fits a lot better with the rest of your comment…you had me really confused for a second. :)

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    If we get rid of fairy johnson

    our running game might not be very good this year

    by Grand Master A on Apr 15, 2009 4:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

    because arnt the other guys

    injury prone or somthing like that

    by Grand Master A on Apr 15, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Or Running Game Hasn't Been That Good With Larry

    As the posts about Larry’s production showed. It’s not really that tough to find a running back to use as a complement with Jamaal Charles…those guys are everywhere. Primary running backs are harder to find, but frankly they’re not that necessary. And Larry Johnson’s not worth what he’s getting paid in his contract (or the off-field problems he causes) and considering that he may be facing a suspension soon anyway he’s not really going to help the Chiefs that much in 2009.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I still disagree.

    Sorry but if we have the cap space I’d rather risk him getting paid to ride the pine that throw out our best shot at a decent running game.

    I have no expectation for Larry to be great this year, but I think its a horrible idea to create more wholes in our team. Anywhere.

    "...Said he couldn't go on the American way"

    by Jux on Apr 15, 2009 4:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I am with you

    We have a productive RB right now. he should stay at KC. If he acts up or isn’t playing up to par, make his ass ride the pine for the whole season so the rest of the league sees what a piece of shit he is. His NFL career would be over if he laid down at this point and he knows that.
    People can say what they want about his production but, the dude can still ball like mad! He was the only one breaking big runs for us last year and he was running out of the shotgun formation behind a shitty line. Niether of those things equal great numbers for a RB. Especially when they are not getting sufficient carries to begin with. He was killing Miami last year when herm all but pulled him out of the game. If they had continued to give him the ball the Chiefs would have won that game. Same with the SD game at home.
    Rhodes, Cobb, Droughns, none of those cats are as good as LJ. To get rid of him for one of them is to buy high and sell low. It does not make sense.

    by Chiefsfan1970 on Apr 15, 2009 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    He's Not Productive

    That was the point of those posts that pointed out his decline in productivity.

    If he acts up or isn’t playing up to par, make his ass ride the pine for the whole season so the rest of the league sees what a piece of shit he is.

    The dude smacks women around in bars…do you really think he gives a damn about what the league thinks about him as long as he’s getting paid?

    People can say what they want about his production but, the dude can still ball like mad!

    By “ball like mad” I’m assuming that your definition “balling” has absolutely nothing to do with producing positive results on the field for his team, or helping his team win.

    NFL players are what they produce…and he didn’t produce anything to get excited about last year or that can’t be easily replaced. Even when he wasn’t suspended.

    He was the only one breaking big runs for us last year and he was running out of the shotgun formation behind a shitty line

    Actually, Jamaal Charles was a more productive running back than Larry Johnson last year…playing behind the same offensive line out of shotgun formations. And unlike Larry Johnson, he even tried to pass block (which is why he was on the field on passing downs and Johnson wasn’t).

    Especially when they are not getting sufficient carries to begin with.

    Refresh my memory…why was Larry Johnson’s carry count so low? Was it maybe because he missed multiple games due to suspension, because they couldn’t put him on the field on passing downs (because he won’t pass block) and because he wasn’t all that productive when he did get the ball?

    And whose fault would all of those things be?

    Rhodes, Cobb, Droughns, none of those cats are as good as LJ.

    Maybe not, but they’re good enough to be platoon backs, they’re a hell of a lot cheaper than Larry Johnson, and they cause a hell of a lot less trouble than he does.

    To get rid of him for one of them is to buy high and sell low.

    Actually, that’s not “buy high/sell low”…that’s called “cutting your losses” or “not throwing good money after bad”. “Buying high” is what the Chiefs did when they signed him to a huge contract after 2006…it’s the equivalent to buying a commodity for $100, seeing it go in the tank, and being able to dump it for $60 instead of being forced to hold onto it until it goes down to zero.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I think us "keep Larry advocates" understand the way the system works but...

    The reason we stay on this is plain and simple. Larry goes=Shitty running game
    Larry stays=Pretty good if not great running game. That is the bottom line.
    All of you guys who want to get rid of him don’t seem to understand the fact that we only have one first day pick and we cannot afford to spend that pick on a LJ quality RB. Kolby Smith Sucks and Jamal charles is okay but cannot take the pounding of 20-30 carries per game. We have needs at Center, DE, LB, OG, RT, WR, and probably place kicker as well as desperately needing depth at several other positions and now you want to spend a draft pick on a RB when we have a very good one here already.
    Who gives a shit about the money. The Chiefs are still below the league minimum and thirty million below the salary cap.

    by Chiefsfan1970 on Apr 15, 2009 4:47 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

    +1

    you sir understand what ive been trying to say
    wrecked

    by Grand Master A on Apr 15, 2009 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Just A Few Points On That
    All of you guys who want to get rid of him don’t seem to understand the fact that we only have one first day pick and we cannot afford to spend that pick on a LJ quality RB.

    The Chiefs don’t actually need an LJ-quality running back. What they need is a guy who can be a complement to Jamaal Charles and split carries effectively. That quality of RB is often available on the 2nd day…or as a UDFA. And I do agree about Kolby Smith (who’s been terrible for most of his Chiefs career). Neither he nor Dantrell Savage are likely to be that guy. But Jesse Chatman, or Reuben Droughns, or Dominic Rhodes, or Patrick Cobb might be…and they’re all free agents who will be a lot cheaper than Johnson.

    Basically, if we get rid of Johnson, the Chiefs don’t have to spend a first day draft pick to get themselves a running back, because decent running backs who can platoon (which is really all the Chiefs need) aren’t that tough to find. They can still spend draft picks on other needs. Whereas if the Chiefs keep Johnson, his contract gets re-guaranteed and we’re stuck with him again (and he has even less incentive to try hard).

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Also
    Who gives a shit about the money.

    The Chiefs do…that’s why they went through the trouble of getting his guaranteed money voided. And $X million the Chiefs aren’t spending on Larry Johnson is $X million they have to spend on someone else (or multiple someone elses) who can fill a lot more holes than Larry Johnson himself would.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I don't think so

    I mean I’m sure they like the fact that if they decide to cut him they dont have to pay anything, but i think that they did the contract talks to make him more enticing as a trade.

    But if they don’t get the trade they want, they won’t just cut him.

    "...Said he couldn't go on the American way"

    by Jux on Apr 15, 2009 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Why Not

    If the Chiefs keep him, a) they’re back on the hook for four more years of bonus money, b) he has absolutely no incentive to try hard (because he knows he’s not going anywhere), and c) he’s going to get suspended so we’re going to lose him for part of the season anyway.

    None of these things point to Larry Johnson being a good thing for the 2009 Chiefs.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Crap.

    I forgot his contract was for 4 more years. I thought he was done after this season and next.

    (internal struggle)
    grr……dont.
    want
    to change
    my
    minnnnd!

    "...Said he couldn't go on the American way"

    by Jux on Apr 15, 2009 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    This Is The Last Fully Guaranteed Year

    His entire salary for this season is guaranteed. The bonus money drops off a lot after next season, but it’s still quite a bit as I recall and he’ll have 3 more years.

    Yes, Carl Peterson really fucked us with that deal in oh-so-many ways.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Correction

    His 2009 salary is fully guaranteed if we keep him. Which is why we won’t.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Actually Carl saved us.

    It turns out to be a great idea to give him a guaranteed salary as opposed to guaranteed signing bonus. That is the only reason we won the grevience with the NFL. The Giants lost the Plaxico grievence becasue you can’t ask for a bonus to be returned. I think in light of these two decisions more players will get guaranteed salaries as opposed to signing bonuses. (Giving LJ a contract was a bad idea, but the guaranteed salary was smart. Now we can cut him and not pay him that money).

    by saskwatch on Apr 15, 2009 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I'll Give Him Credit There

    He wrote a good out.

    But the fact remains that the Chiefs still had Johnson under contract for the 2007 and 2008 seasons and didn’t have to give him a new deal…especially since that team wasn’t any good to begin with and there was no good football-related reason to pay Johnson after a 400+ carry season.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    He has trade value but not much.

    We should be able to trade him for conditional picks next year. For example if he plays in 12 games chiefs get a 5th. If he rushes for 1500 yards we get a 2. If he gets released prior to the start of the season we get nothing.

    by saskwatch on Apr 15, 2009 5:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

    I Think That Might Work

    I just don’t think we’ll get anything for him in the 2009 draft. And if we can’t trade him before the 2009 season, we’ll just dump him.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    As long as we get a 4th or higher I wouldn't be

    But if we cut him and he gets 1500 yards…..

    "...Said he couldn't go on the American way"

    by Jux on Apr 15, 2009 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    He Won't Get 1500 Yards

    He’s gotten 4 yards per carry since the 2006 season…that would require him to log over 370 carries to achieve that. And he hasn’t come close to that number in either of the last two years. He hasn’t even come close to 300 carries (which would get him 1200 yards). He’s been a less than 200 carry back both seasons (which would put him around 800 yards…nothing special or close to worth the salary he’d get). And that’s not going to be helped by another suspension.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    For sure.

    I don’t think it’s in any way likely he will get over 1000 yards.

    But stranger things have happened and knowing how the chiefs luck goes….

    "...Said he couldn't go on the American way"

    by Jux on Apr 15, 2009 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I Don't Believe In Luck

    At least not enough to want the Chiefs to keep Larry Johnson based off an anxiety that he might suddenly become the kind of running back he hasn’t been in two years since he was run into the ground.

    The odds favor Johnson continuing to be an underachiever and I think that the Chiefs should go with the odds.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Or More Accurately

    I don’t believe in luck as something that can be predicted accurately enough for us to make decisions primarily based on it.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I think you are misunderstanding me.

    I was joking about how I’d flip out if something crazy happened. Not that it should be the reason for anything.

    "...Said he couldn't go on the American way"

    by Jux on Apr 15, 2009 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Gotcha

    Sarcasm is tough to detect in writing without a smiley face on the end of it. :)

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Same With Humor

    Writing is such a limiting medium in discussions sometimes.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Props for not freaking out and calling me an idiot.

    I would’ve done it lol

    "...Said he couldn't go on the American way"

    by Jux on Apr 15, 2009 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Nah

    I’m not going to do that…you’d have had to be a whole lot more offensive than that to hit that button with me. :)

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I CAN SEE PIOLI MAKING A DEAL WITH THE EAGLES!!

    The Eagles need a running back as well as an elite Left Tackle. The best way for them to get both is to deal with the Chiefs. I can see the Eagles trading both first round pick and possibly a second or third rounder to the Chiefs for their #3 pick and LJ. The Chiefs and the Eagles would both win in this situation. The Cheis then could get their LB and possibly either a DL or and OL and possibly a WR if this was to occur. I know I am dreaming but you never know with Pioli!!!!!!!

    by LocoGonzo on Apr 15, 2009 7:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

    I Don't Think The Eagles Are Going To Be Interested

    Andy Reid already said the Eagles have no interest in Beanie Wells because they want a multipurpose back who’s useful in the passing game, not a bruiser who’s not a pass-catcher. That’s not LJ (especially when you add in that he’s not a pass-blocker either).

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I am maintaining my stance on this UC.

    I understand everything you are saying but I still see Larry as being a good RB. He was in the top 10 in YPC and he broke some big runs against some respectable defenses and our line sucked. I still think with a good line he is going to be a monster. After we cut him (which I know will happen, I am not delusional) he will go to another team and I am sure that he will be tearing it up for at least two more years. Speaking of YPC.. his average was 4.5 YPC not 4. This may sound crazy but that means statistically, you could give him the ball on every single play and he would net you 13.5 yards in three downs thus, continuous first downs on every offensive possession equalling TDs. I know that is completely unrealistic and will never happen but I am just saying that to make my point about his production which you say does not exist.
    If Pioli has decided to cut his losses with LJ for financial reasons, I can respect that if he is willing to go after someone who is as good or better than who we have already. If not, then we are just downgrading the talent we have on the roster. To me, that is just begging to lose.
    I believe you should always be trying to UPGRADE your talent and keep the players who are still good. I don’t know if we need a big bruiser RB or not because I haven’t seen what these guys have in mind for the offense but, I know this much: You need to have a good running game to win in the NFL and Smith, Charles or any of those other guys are a downgrade from LJ. I also know that we don’t have the offensive firepower to win games in the passing game, especially with our defense being as weak as it has been. Our WRs are mediocre at best even though I think Bowe will be good under Haley. Gonzo is awesome but, he wants to leave too as well as Waters but, I don’t see you calling for their heads.
    I dont want to keep LJ because I like him. In fact I think he is a prick but, I want to the Chiefs put a winning team on the field and I think he is a key ingredient to the Chiefs having a good season this year. That is all I care about.
    I also want to let it be known that I do realize that Larry will not be here next year. Pioli did not go through all the trouble of the hearing just to continue paying him the inflated contract he has. I am simply pointing out the fact that he will be a very difficult player to replace and that I think it is a mistake to let him go w/o trying to renegotiate his contract.
    I say this with respect because I usually like what you have to say but, this is something we disagree about.

    by Chiefsfan1970 on Apr 15, 2009 8:20 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

    I agree

    BUT I didn’t realize that we are going to have to keep his ASS happy for Four years If we play him one play in 2009

    you don't have to win and you don't need to fight. Supertramp

    by Steve_Chiefs on Apr 15, 2009 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Actually
    Speaking of YPC.. his average was 4.5 YPC not 4.

    He’s had four yards per carry over the last two years…which is what I said.

    This may sound crazy but that means statistically, you could give him the ball on every single play and he would net you 13.5 yards in three downs thus

    Except that you can’t use him on passing downs because he’s not a good pass-catcher and won’t block so he’s basically just a two-down back at this point of his career (which means he’s not getting 1500 yards again). When he’s not suspended, that is…during those times he’s a no-down back.

    I can respect that if he is willing to go after someone who is as good or better than who we have already. If not, then we are just downgrading the talent we have on the roster. To me, that is just begging to lose.

    Except that Jamaal Charles was a more productive back than Johnson last year when they played and the Chiefs won only two games with Johnson in the lineup (and he took himself out of four games with his off-field behavior…not just the incidents at the club, but also his attitude towards meetings, team flights, etc.).

    No offense, but fuck Larry Johnson. He doesn’t give a damn about being a great player and he doesn’t want to be a member of the Chiefs (he said so clearly right up until he got his contract voided). He just cares about his celebrity and his guaranteed contract and if he gets that back he’ll go back to being a piece of shit…regardless of what damage it does to the team. Because that’s how he is…he was raised to be a scumbag, he’s acted like a scumbag ever since he’s been here, and once he can get away with it again he’ll be a scumbag again. So I don’t care if we get a one year downgrade at running back (which we won’t because he’s not that good)…Larry Johnson is a loser and this team doesn’t need him weighing them down.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 15, 2009 10:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    So, I'm sick of arguing with the folks that have placed LJ on a mystical pedistal

    So….
    I’m posting a link that has nothing at all to do with football here especially for UCrawford.
    I chose this spot to post it because I know he won’t be able to resist someone replying to the last comment he made on this post.
    Please forgive the lack of Chiefs relevance, but I know UC will appreciate this.

    The Powers Of Astute Observation Are Often Mistaken As Cynacism By Those That Do Not Posses Them -- G.B. Shaw

    by Texas Chief on Apr 16, 2009 12:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    HA!!!

    I read this when it came out…it was hilarious. :) Mainly because I can’t stand Michael “Product Placement Whore” Bay…the guy is a hack.

    Predictions for 2009

    1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
    2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.
    3. Maurice Carthon will be the most hated man on the Chiefs' coaching staff within two years.

    by UCrawford on Apr 16, 2009 7:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Whole heartedly agree

    The Powers Of Astute Observation Are Often Mistaken As Cynacism By Those That Do Not Posses Them -- G.B. Shaw

    by Texas Chief on Apr 16, 2009 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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