Will the Chiefs Sign Matt Cassel to a Long-Term Contract?
by Joel Thorman on Mar 5, 2009 9:00 AM CST
in 2009 Offseason
29 comments
via thescore.ibj.com
The question should be when will the Kansas City Chiefs sign Matt Cassel but then again they may wait a year before they commit big bucks to a guy with only 15 starts under his belt. Let's take a look at the circumstances surrounding Cassel and a long-term contract with the Chiefs.
Signing Cassel Before The Season Starts
If the overwhelmingly positive reaction to the Cassel trade is any indication, this is the option most folks would prefer. Scott Pioli is as familiar with Cassel as anyone and if he was willing to send a second round pick to New England without a long-term deal in place then he's confident that Cassel will pan out - he wanted his guy and knew he couldn't wait for others to get involved.
Signing him to a deal prior to the commencement of the 2009 campaign would be beneficial to the Chiefs.
Current Market vs. Future Market
As of now, the going rate for a player like Cassel is around $10 million per year. If the situation in Denver involving Jay Cutler taught us anything, it's that teams are willing to do whatever it takes to get their quarterback. If Cassel plays out his 2009 franchise tag with the Chiefs and, faced with the looming possibility of being tagged again in 2010, may decide he would rather test the free agent waters with two more years of starting experience.
No player likes to be hit with the franchise tag, especially two years in a row. They're looking for guaranteed money over a number of years and plenty of dollars up front. We can give that to Cassel now without risking the possibility of pissing him off with another franchise tag.
The money is outrageous, particularly on a player with limited experience, but sometimes you have to risk something big to gain something big. For the Chiefs, giving Cassel a long-term deal now would be a risk, but a risk that could save millions of dollars and plenty of headaches.
Bottom line is that the Chiefs don't want to be putting over $30 million in guaranteed money the next two years only to see Cassel walk after 2010. I would rather commit $30 million guaranteed and not be stuck in a situation where you can lose him after two years.
Sign him to a long-term deal and let the Chiefs regain the leverage in this relationship.
Prove It Year
Matt Cassel is under contract by the Chiefs. He has to play in Kansas City this year or play nowhere. After the season, the Chiefs have the option of tagging him again at a 110% increase in his salary.
This means that Pioli can decide to give Cassel one year to prove he's worth it.
If he proves it...great. Let's talk long-term contract. If he doesn't...we can get out without the burden of a hefty contract with lots of guaranteed money.
Peter King lays out the case for giving Cassel a prove it year in this week's Monday Morning Quarterback:
It makes sense for Kansas City to sign Cassel long-term, obviously, but I'm not sure the Chiefs will. Pioli, I'm sure, will remind Cassel (if he hasn't told him already) that Brady took less money to allow the team to build a great team around him. In other words, if Cassel doesn't want to be one of the two or three highest-paid quarterbacks in football, they could get a deal done.
Coming from the New England mindset, let's hope Cassel heeds King's advice and gives the Chiefs a discount.
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I don't think they should...
I would keep him on the tag this year….The “prove it year” as you put it…if we see that he will be able to lead the team we will still be able to sign him or tag him again for 110% so, I am not worried at all…
Either way has upside so there is no worries….
by woodman212 on Mar 5, 2009 9:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
But if he performs well again
his leverage for an even larger contract will go up.
I don’t see any reason to have him “prove it.” He’s already proven it by being traded to us with a $14 million price tag.
Renegotiate him to a contract that makes both sides happy.
All I have to say is "Thank you, Clark."
by IISaiNtII on Mar 5, 2009 11:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
IF he signs
I think the price tag is going to really take people by surprise, and the critics of the deal (I’m not one) are going to come out swinging.
My post below shows my opinion here, I’d like to get him signed, simply b/c Pioli must have forseen this negotiation, and having him ‘prove it’ for $14.6 and then be in a stronger negotiating position next year isn’t palatable.
Its going to be pricey, but get it done. Pioli didn’t give up a 2nd round pick to roll the dice for one year, there really is no good that comes out of waiting.
by kcsno56 on Mar 5, 2009 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I tend to agree
"But what do I know, I'm AP's new assclown and I’m like an empty room with a large ECHO"
by Lanier63 on Mar 5, 2009 12:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
pioli is a smart biz man
in my opinion i dont give the guys the key to the city if he has been a back up all his career if he came out of college in flying colors looking like the next john elway or marino i would say pay the guy . But pioli is smart knows that the system in new england was stacked put tyler thigpen in that situation and tyler is thriiiving and would be getting paid as well . I dont expect pioli to break the bank on a back up its the reason why he got cassel because he knows he can level with him and that he can run his system and that he is the type of person that would sacrafice for the team . He will take a pay cut he wont be long term and hey if the guy blows up next year great for us now we have a qb if not we have the draft cuz we went 4 and what ever and we will try to get a starter our of college who has plenty of game experience but right now cassel is the best guy available and he knows somewhat of the system let him play then pay.
FOUR F'S FIND UM FEEL UM FUGUM FORGET UM.
by sexassassin on Mar 5, 2009 1:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
You have to pay him $14.6 mil regardless, so its not like its a cheap option to just let him play this year to figure it out. Its not a question of Play then Pay, its a question of Pay then Play then Pay or PAY then play…ya get?
There are 3 possibilities if you let him play at the Franchise # this year:
A. He has a good to great season. If this happens, he has WAY more negotiating power next offseason, so we’d be in the same position as now, only much worse, AND we’ll have just paid him $14.6 million. Also, as it stands now, 2010 will be an uncapped year (I think they will get a new CBA and this won’t happen), but if it does, and someone like Jason Campbell has a bad year, we could be going heads up against Dan Snyder for his services, if we don’t franchise him. If we do franchise him (which we probably would) now you’re looking at a minimum of $16 mil guaranteed to him for next year, and he has even less incentive to sign…meaning that you’d have to pay him upwards of $40 mil guaranteed…AFTER having already paid him $14.6!
B. He has a mediocre year. Like I mentined in my post below, a year where he’s about the 15-20 best QB in the league. Here’s the rub, even a season like that is going to command over $10 million in signing bonus on the open market given his age and previous season. This would put us in a bind, b/c we likely wouldn’t want to tag him but would have to consider it. He’d probably be looking at closer to $15 mil guaranteed…so including his ‘09 $14.6, now you’re right back to that $30 mil mark which is probably the high end of what it would take to sign him now.
C. He has a lousy year, or gets hurt. This is the only way it would be smart to franchise him…and I hardly think anyone wants to ‘root’ for that. Under these circumstances, he’s most likely not going to be done in the league, he’d probably get a fresh chance somewhere else (like Denver or backing up in NE again). We gave up a 2nd for the guy, clearly Pioli thinks option C is the least likely of the 3 possibilities.
Odds would say the most likely scenario is option B. If this happens, you still end up worse off than signing him to a long term deal now, especially given our Cap situation this year. Maybe similar total guaranteed money, but less favorable to the cap, b/c we’d have lost this years space.
Also, if he happens to have a great year, which we all want, now you really are going to have to shell out to pay him, OR franchise him again, guaranteeing another $16 mil, and potentially starting over in the same place we are today, two years later, with $31 mil spent! You don’t want this! There are times when tagging a guy, even back to back years makes sense. It would have made a lot of sense to tag, and leave the tag on LJ instead of giving him his money, b/c of his attitude and position. But a franchise QB, tagging is a BAD move.
What it boils down to is this…do you think option A or C is more likely. If you think option C, then you probably shouldn’t sign him, b/c you’re risking probably an extra $14 mil over this years franchise #. If you think Option A is more likely, you’re risking, oh about $25 mil extra to get him signed over this years F #. So you actually have to think option C is about 1.5 times more likely. And again, option B is not a wash, it’d be a ‘win’ for Cassel, only not as big.
Of course, Cassel’s agent knows all this, and probably feels very confident A is more likely than C, and thats why I’m sure he’s content playing at the Franchise Tag…hopefully they get something done, I think they will, b/c when its in the best interest of the team with the checkbook, with a smart GM, they usually do.
by kcsno56 on Mar 5, 2009 1:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
To take it one step further
I’d argue that if you think Option C is more likely than Option A, that is, you think he’s more likely to fail than to have a good year, then Pioli shouldn’t waste his time even letting Cassel play for him this year at $14.6, he should trade him now and get value over what he paid NE.
Of course, this would, I’m sure piss off his mentor, but the more I think about it, letting him play at $14.6 makes no sense, its essentially betting on failure.
by kcsno56 on Mar 5, 2009 2:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hold on
to what you have here. you already commited the second rounder. if you just play out the franchise contract then you get another year to see what he has. plus with no contract he will be playing in a “contract” year so it should be good. If he does prove what hes worth then you can franchise/resign him again. yeah i know the number for franchise is supposd to go up like 3mil but that 3mil is pennies comapred to any contract he would sign now. plus if he scott mitchels it then you are only out the 2nd and 14 mil. i know its not going to happen but think of this as well. right now cassel can hold out and not sign a contract because. well what else are we going to do.
by Hendrix on Mar 5, 2009 9:05 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
14 million and a 2nd rd pick....
If pioli was sure enough to do that why is everyone wondering! I thought pioli was the shit and anything he does is a sure bet?! Either sign the guy to a long term contract or trade him for more picks,the hell with paying 14 million on someone your not sure of (if thats the case)! We werent sure of Tyler but we arent paying him 14 million either now are we. I just wish we would have had a chance to see what tyler thigpen could have done with a good o-line,before we went after another qb. Dont get me wrong it is nice to have another qb on the roster but is he a back up or a starter? Question’s we cant answer until we have a good o-line! This my way of thinking give Tyler one yr to prove himself draft aaron curry #3 sign brown( which by the way is to late) draft o-line with the #34 pick,someone like mack, then all we needed was a RT. the work would have been done on the o-line and we would just have to fix the defensive side of the ball from there!
by CPT.Caveman on Mar 5, 2009 10:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Sign the man.
If you picked someone in round 2 you’d sign him for 3 or 4 years. Treat this the same way. Sign him to a 3-5 year deal.
by HIV 2 Elway on Mar 5, 2009 10:08 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I wait it out let us build around him
dont give him the big cheese until we can get some more pieces around him.
FOUR F'S FIND UM FEEL UM FUGUM FORGET UM.
by sexassassin on Mar 5, 2009 10:09 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Pad the contract
Every contract is incentive heavy. Just make it to where the gurantee matches two years of franchising and pad the contract with incentives and bonuses based on his performance. Money is only available if you perform.
by elk2009 on Mar 5, 2009 10:14 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
As the o-line
goes so goes Cassel. Give him the deal and let them develop together.
by REMWHEN on Mar 5, 2009 10:17 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
But
wouldn’t it be an important statement from Cassel if he said the same thing Brady said about the money.
Brady took less money to allow the team to build a great team around him
Too me it says, I am committed to building a winner here and be part of something special.
"But what do I know, I'm AP's new assclown and I’m like an empty room with a large ECHO"
by Lanier63 on Mar 5, 2009 10:27 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
lanier good point
exactly im pretty sure he will take a pay cut something not so long term just so pioli can build right now look at albert haynesworth he broke the bank of the redskins and their back at the same time they are strapped for cash now . I am confident that pioli will work out a solid deal that gives him the luxury to build a team around cassel
FOUR F'S FIND UM FEEL UM FUGUM FORGET UM.
by sexassassin on Mar 5, 2009 10:38 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
110% increase in his salary!!!!!
You mean we’d have to pay him $30.66mill next year!?
by stag on Mar 5, 2009 10:53 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Lets do some math. ;-)
14.65M x 110% (1.1) = 16.12M
14.65M x 210% (2.1) = 30.77M
by KCChiefs on Mar 5, 2009 11:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
?? should be how much guarantee money
I don’t think there is any question. You sign him to a long term contract. Most long term contracts have a guranteed component ( the Cardinals and Kurt Warner were mostly negotiating over how much of the contract was guaranteed. The Cardinals offered 2 year at 20 million the first year (10 million) guaranteed….Warner wanted 2 years guranteed at 14 million each year they settled on two years 23 million with 19 million guaranteed.) So a typical contract for Cassel might be 5 years at 9 or 10 million a year the first two years guaranteed. I dont think you could expect Cassel to drop down to 10 million a year unless the Chiefs give a two year guarantee ie 18 to 20 million otherwise he just says I’ll stick with the 14.6 million this year and take my chances next year..
by BigRedCadillac on Mar 5, 2009 10:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
This is the Chiefs point of view
Not sure Warner’s a comparable player.
But the problem is, if you’re Cassel, and you are guaranteed 14.6, if you have any confidence in your ability, you have to believe you’re looking at a huge payday, NEXT season. He holds all the cards, which is exactly why Haley acted like he was going to compete for a job. He’s not competing, the job is his, he even knows it, which is why he referred to himself as the starter multiple times in his conference call. Let’s say Cassel has a mediocre year, which puts him ranked between the 15-20th best QB’s in the league. Even if that were to happen, and he hits the open market, he’d be looking at a signing bonus well in excess of $10 million dollars….meaning if he doesn’t sign right now with us, he’s for sure looking at $25 mil over the next two seasons.
Now, the X factor here is injury, and thats the point I’d make if I was Pioli. He gets hurt this year, and $14.6 (nothing to scoff at) could be all he sees.
Anyway, from Cassel’s point of view, it may take close to $28-30 million guaranteed to get this done. Again, he could play out this year at the Franchise #, and be right back where we are now, with even more negotiating power.
The Chiefs would probably like to get a 4-5 year deal done, averaging around 10 mil per, with around $20 guaranteed, he’s probably asking for $35 mil guaranteed, averaging around $13 per. And he just may get it.
Last thing…PLEASE don’t let me hear any of you guys criticizing him for going after his money. There isn’t a rational person out there that wouldn’t do the same. Did Brady take less…yeah, he did, Brady was on a team at the cap max, we’re $57 mil under the cap before he signs, so there is no argument to be made there. If Pioli structures his contract wisely, he can put the bulk of the cap hit and all the guaranteed money on the next two seasons cap. This would be a very wise move, the exact opposite of Carl’s strategy, but one Pioli I expect will execute.
IF he signs this offseason, my prediction: 5 years, $62.5 million, $28 million guaranteed a lot of that via guaranteed roster bonuses this year and next, and high guaranteed salaries this year and next. Then in the last 3 years of the deal, salaries averaging out to 10 mil a season, non-guaranteed.
by kcsno56 on Mar 5, 2009 11:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We can always hope
First let me say that your analysis and comments are very reasonable KCSNO56. I didn’t mean to imply that Warner and Cassel’s situation were comparable at all in fact they are obviously very different ………the illustration was useful because it was a timely example of how negotiating contract size and guaranteed money work in the NFL. It’s clear that Cassel is already guaranteed 14.6 million for one year so it’s only a question of how much of that he is willing to give up to get a longer term contract. I’m sure that they get accountants involved with this so that they can show the player how he might benefit from extending his salary out to more years….. but ultimately in the NFL contracts are not traditionally guaranteed from year to year and thru injury UNLESS it’s in writing as guaranteed money
by BigRedCadillac on Mar 5, 2009 12:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
You can guarantee salaries in the NFL, its just not typically done. Its a good way to get money immeadiately on a cap, along with roster bonuses instead of signing bonuses.
With all this cap space now, there isn’t any motivation for the Chiefs to give him a large signing bonus in the traditional sense because those ‘cap dollars’ are spread over the lifetime of the contract.
Cassel’s not going to ‘give up’ any of that $14.6 mil for a longer contract. His guaranteed money, if he signs a new deal will be much higher than that, and I’m sure the portion of that going into his pocket in 2009 will be well over $14.6, so its really a question of how much MORE guaranteed $ over $14.6 will it take to get him to lock himself into a 5 year deal. I go into (probably too much) detail above…
by kcsno56 on Mar 5, 2009 1:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
IF...
he has a mediocre yr and is between the 15 to 20 qb i think we wasted money on him and a good pick!
by CPT.Caveman on Mar 5, 2009 10:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know a lot of you guys love Thigpen
But…he wasn’t in the top 20 QB’s this year, not close, by just about any statistical measure. I have my own favorite QB stats (Y/A and Comp % are my favs) but lets take QB rating, just b/c its the most commonly used. It has flaws…several, but here’s QB’s 15-20:
15. McNabb
16. Cutler
17. Trent Edwards
18. Delhomme
19. J. Campbell
20. Garrard
(14 was E. Manning, 21 was Favre.)
Just sayin, if he’s in that range, next year, and we don’t have him signed long term, he’s gonna get paid. MORE than he would if we signed him now, b/c he’ll already be sitting on $14.6 mil from us, and we’ll have less leverage.
by kcsno56 on Mar 5, 2009 11:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
Increase would be to pay him 16.06 million next year an increase of 1.46 million or 10%
by elk2009 on Mar 5, 2009 10:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Why
would he play for less money (to help build a team) when he knows how much cap space we have? We haven’t even spent the minimum we have to spend yet.
by REMWHEN on Mar 5, 2009 12:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
because its the patriot way.
FOUR F'S FIND UM FEEL UM FUGUM FORGET UM.
by sexassassin on Mar 5, 2009 12:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
the patriot way?
do we cheat now too?
lmao
by CPT.Caveman on Mar 5, 2009 10:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not yet until he proves he's not a Huard.
Meaning Huard followed Marino and Brady had part of a season with us and everyone thought he was God. So I would think that they have a little bit to restructure his contract, kind of make sure they got what they thought,they’re gonna have to pay the 14.65 no matter what whether it be in one year or 6. But I dont believe they will sign him until they make sure what they have. Of course I dont know alot on how contracts work though.
I’m comparing him to Huard cause he followed 2 QBs in college with big names and one in the NFL, Huard followed Marino and Brady and there was a reason. He is a career backup not a franchise QB. There are more busts and found gems then sure things.
by kcoutlaw2 on Mar 5, 2009 2:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
well if we have to pay the man
might as well sign him long term fuck it get ur moneys worth
FOUR F'S FIND UM FEEL UM FUGUM FORGET UM.
by sexassassin on Mar 5, 2009 5:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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