Draft Economics

I'm not going to discuss money, though.  Nevertheless, the laws of supply and demand still apply. 

The old mantra of the draft is "you don't draft to fill a need, you draft the best player available".  True enough, as far as it goes, but I'll not delve into the flaws of that homily.

One might think that Round One would be the safest round in the draft, despite the large amount of money at stake, since the cream rises to the top, right?  Well, anyone who follows the draft knows that it ain't necessarily so. 

It is pretty well known that there are factors at work that are difficult to measure.  Speed, Size, Strength and Smarts are all needed, but they aren't enough to judge a "next level" player (although said player has to have enough of each, to be sure). 

So, what is the missing element?  Call it "intangibles".  Instinct, dedication, desire, charachter, etc.  It's not hard to see it as a difficult question to answer for one guy, let alone for the 32 first-rounders.  Think about it: your task is to evaluate 32 people, and determine which ones have that "something special". Not an easy task, is it? 

So, as people generally do when faced with a fog of possibilities, teams simplify.  They interview a pool of interesting players, look at their stats, and measure the four S'es.  But even all that research isn't enough, and everyone knows it. 

So, what's left?  Perception.  Reputation, propaganda, hype, college coaches pumping up their players, college pedigree, and so on.  Oh, and "Conventional Wisdom" - which to me smacks of "common sense", which isn't particularly common, nor does it always make sense, if you get my drift.  If you blindly follow CW, you are folowing the herd, which means it can lead you right over a cliff. 

I think the trick is to take it all with a grain of salt.  My point is that QBs, RBs and WRs (or other 'sexy' positions) are all much in demand in Round One, and with reason.  You have to have at least two of the three as above-average players on your offense to be a contender.  What fans (and teams - this means YOU, Detroit!) have to remember is that just because someone is the 'best' available at their position, doesn't mean that they merit being picked in that round, or even necessarily at that pick.  This goes double for "saviors". 

NFL team would do well to expand their scouting operations and research potential draftees in much greater detail, especially /before/ they hype machines kick in.  We can hope that Pioli will bring some of that to the table, come draft day, and it's time to pony up, say, $80Mill on a guy.