The NFL now has the very real threat of a work stoppage in 2011. - Don Banks - SI.com

Comments

The owners are going to bash the unions brains in

The owners hold all the cards. If there is a work stoppage, its going to hurt the players many times more than the owners. Especially the little guys.

The union can talk tough all they want about how if they go into an uncapped year they won’t go back, but the owners have the clauses set up to suit them perfectly if it comes down to that. The players hold no cards except to not play and they won’t be able to do that for long.

by ChiefDJ on Mar 23, 2009 8:54 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

That's what it sounds like

But the owners know they can’t do any business without the players. This is going to be a very, very difficult negotiating period.

by Joel Thorman on Mar 23, 2009 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions

This just gives me a sick feeling

I used to be a baseball fan at heart before 1994. As rabid a Chiefs fan as I was back then, the Royals were my first love. The strike changed all that. I don’t want football to do the same thing.

by chiefstatnut on Mar 23, 2009 8:55 PM CDT reply actions

Agreed

It’s getting scary. I’m almost tempted to say the NFL is strong enough to overcome a strike but we could have said the same thing about baseball in 94.

by Joel Thorman on Mar 23, 2009 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions

I think that temptation is well-founded

Football is probably strong enough to overcome a work stoppage. We may have thought that about baseball in 1994, but in reality it was more feeble than we thought. Plus, at that time, there was an heir apparent: football was still ascending into the juggernaut we know today. It was primed to take over after baseball shot itself the foot.

A lot can change between now and 2011, but I don’t see any other sport rapidly ascending and ready to take over for football. Football may be weaker by that point due to the economy, but the product and level of play have not declined or been diluted by expansion. It is likely to remain America’s Game by the time the labor agreement hits zero hour.

There is no real heir apparent should football go away. Baseball has done well the last few years, but is still working out some issues. Plus, I would argue that the explosion in sabremetrics has actually been bad for the game. If you don’t believe me, go over to Royals Review and try to read half the posts. I’m a nerd who loves numbers and my hometown team and I can’t get interested enough to bother to learn any of the new statistics. It’s a real turn-off to the casual fan. The NBA is a mess… just had to borrow $200 million to prop up 12 teams. The NHL can’t get out of its own way. The level of play in the MLS still looks like Brookside Soccer to me. OK, that was an exaggeration… it’s getting better, but if you watch the Premiership on Fox Soccer Channel, you realize how much we are missing.

I would argue that the most likely replacement for football is… more football. I think the biggest winners out of the demise of the NFL would be the college game (which is growing like a weed and pretty damn fun despite all its imperfections). Also, the startup UFL has attracted some decent coaches. If they play their cards right and iron out the wrinkles over the next two years, they could poach a lot of the out-of-work NFL free agents and present a pretty attractive alternative at a time when there will be no competition at the professional level. That could be promising. We’ll see if they have he discipline to stay the course and grow at a reasonable rate.

Sorry… this got a little long-winded. Material for a FanPost, perhaps?

by chiefstatnut on Mar 24, 2009 6:57 AM CDT up reply actions

That is precisely when I stopped being a baseball fan.

"You said you was gonna take me to see Wu-Tang baby ...So I braided my hair, yes I did, cornroll and everything baby"

I don't have religion. I have Baduizm...and Billie Holiday.

by DThomasReigns on Mar 23, 2009 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed

I’m in the same boat. When both sides were so consumed by greed that they had to cancel the world series, I stopped being a baseball fan altogether. This is a real bummer.

Braccae illae virides cum subucula rosea et tunica Caledonia-quam elenganter concinnatur!

by Buck'O on Mar 26, 2009 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions

Wow. That was a great read.

I was previously only aware of the 6-year FA and 30% rules.

My stomach is in knots already. How can they be so shortsighted?

"You said you was gonna take me to see Wu-Tang baby ...So I braided my hair, yes I did, cornroll and everything baby"

I don't have religion. I have Baduizm...and Billie Holiday.

by DThomasReigns on Mar 23, 2009 9:08 PM CDT reply actions

The players can't afford an uncapped year

Think of the large percentage of players that will NEED a paycheck the following season.

by Joel Thorman on Mar 23, 2009 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions

You and I understand that, but I not only question the intellectual maturity of the players, I feel they can be manipulated in the wrong direction by those who may benefit.

"You said you was gonna take me to see Wu-Tang baby ...So I braided my hair, yes I did, cornroll and everything baby"

I don't have religion. I have Baduizm...and Billie Holiday.

by DThomasReigns on Mar 23, 2009 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions

Who would steer them away?

The folks on their side only stand to gain from the players playing and being paid by the owners.

A work stoppage hurts both sides.

by Joel Thorman on Mar 23, 2009 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions

I am obviously only speculating with this:

Anyone hoping to gain a position within the new NFLPA executive staff. Promising to fight , or intimating you will fight, for the players will garner one support.

If the agents weren’t as aware of the implications of these restrictions, they may be pushing for it. They may even be willing to tolerate the short term pain, if they believe they can permanently remove the salary cap thus creating greater wealth in the future.

The players. They may have the same untempered avarice of the agents. If they think they can institute a league of salaries and fully guaranteed contracts similar to baseball, then they dig in and fight. Even new NFLPA ED Smith referred to it as a war only days after being elected.

The NFLPA (employees, players, and agents) are not looking at the pain of the next couple of years, they are looking at the riches that make that pain worthwhile.

"You said you was gonna take me to see Wu-Tang baby ...So I braided my hair, yes I did, cornroll and everything baby"

I don't have religion. I have Baduizm...and Billie Holiday.

by DThomasReigns on Mar 23, 2009 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions

Definitely rec'd.

"You said you was gonna take me to see Wu-Tang baby ...So I braided my hair, yes I did, cornroll and everything baby"

I don't have religion. I have Baduizm...and Billie Holiday.

by DThomasReigns on Mar 23, 2009 9:14 PM CDT reply actions

I posted it

So it won’t let me rec it :(

by Joel Thorman on Mar 23, 2009 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions

ill rec for you pt

by chiefs8288 on Mar 23, 2009 9:23 PM CDT reply actions

thanks, chiefs8288

"You said you was gonna take me to see Wu-Tang baby ...So I braided my hair, yes I did, cornroll and everything baby"

I don't have religion. I have Baduizm...and Billie Holiday.

by DThomasReigns on Mar 23, 2009 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions

no problem i was going to rec it anyway

so why not help out another AP family member

by chiefs8288 on Mar 23, 2009 9:38 PM CDT reply actions

A work stoppage would be poison, especially if the economy bottoms out and hasn't recovered.

The league minimum is way more money than the average family earns. The NFL is mighty but I don’t think it can withstand that kind of bad press.

Toby is in HR, which technically means he works for corporate, so he's really not a part of our family. Also, he's divorced, so he's really not a part of his family.

by Rev. Slappy on Mar 24, 2009 3:07 PM CDT reply actions

I'm curious

Because the TV contract revenue has played such a huge part in all of this, and the networks are hurting to the extent that they’re speculating that future TV contracts aren’t likely to be as lucrative or as long-term, how would that impact the labor negotiations?

Braccae illae virides cum subucula rosea et tunica Caledonia-quam elenganter concinnatur!

by Buck'O on Mar 26, 2009 11:00 PM CDT reply actions

It Pains Me to Do This

I must cite a Peter King article for the second time in my life on AP. I accept full responsibility for this drivel, but it’s the only place I’ve seen a report on a TV contract so far. If OAPP needs to strike this comment because it is a King reference, I completely understand.

To save you having to read the article, he basically says that $1 billion of the DirecTV contract is guaranteed post-work-stoppage. That works out to $31.25 million per team if my calculator and thumbs are working this early in the morning. That’s not a bad shot in the arm at a time when the lights could be out in the stadia.

I don’t know anything about the other TV contracts and King, of course, half-assed the research and only mentioned DirecTV.

by chiefstatnut on Mar 27, 2009 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions

Clarification

The $1 billion guaranteed is per year. The contract runs through 2014, so each team would get $31.25 million per year for up to three years even if there is a work stoppage.

by chiefstatnut on Mar 27, 2009 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions

* 4 years

… work stoppage could start as early as 2011. Contract runs through 2014. That’s 4 years of payouts without the guarantee of games being played.

… and I’m done!

by chiefstatnut on Mar 27, 2009 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, But

This is standard. If there is some reason they don’t play in 2011, DirecTV will pay that amount but then in the future that amount will be deducted. This isn’t lockout insurance by any means. Peter King didn’t have the whole story. DirecTV would not lose a billion/year on this.

by Joel Thorman on Mar 27, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions

PFT says it better

"All sports league media deals are structured so payments continue in a lockout or strike," the source said. "The money is then deducted off future years. . . . The news would have been had this not been the case."

by Joel Thorman on Mar 27, 2009 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions

Thanks guys

it’s bound to be an interesting element to the whole saga. Good stuff.

Braccae illae virides cum subucula rosea et tunica Caledonia-quam elenganter concinnatur!

by Buck'O on Mar 27, 2009 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions

If I were an owner

I would take this opportunity to stomp a mud hole in the players union; actually looks like they already have, why can’t they get the baseball owners to sack up and do the same thing.

Speaking of Royals Review, yeah totally agree, I love the Royals and can’t get into any of the topics over there, totally unapproachable unless I have a graphing calculator with me.

by Your_Moms_Boyfriend on Mar 27, 2009 12:29 PM CDT reply actions

I mostly blame myself for losing interest in baseball

Like Brett Favre with football, the game of baseball has probably just passed me by. The people at Royals Review are generally nice, knowledgeable, and have even written some sabremetrics-for-dummies posts to smooth the transition for someone like me. I salute their efforts. Unfortunately, it hasn’t helped me evolve past the “casual fan” stage that came with the work stoppage in 1994.

I remember being very angry about baseball in 1994; the looming football labor issue has me more worried than angry. Perhaps that will change by 2011. Currently, though, I think it would take an acrimonious, two-year-plus work stoppage in football to push me to the level of casual fan.

by chiefstatnut on Mar 27, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions

I understand~

BUT, I think of it in a entirely diff way~ simply, I think and act accordingly to the reason of ** Im not letting ANY strike by any SPORT that I love take my enjoyment away from the pursuit of knowledge of both~

in other words, Im not gonna give up my right to PARTYYYYYYY, meaning loving my BASEBALL ( royals ) and Loving my Football ( Chiefs )~ I am totally into supporting both teams/players and engulfing myself with such News, Stats, etc~ THAT there is NO WAY any STRIKE, or Player, OR GM, or Owner could ever take that away from me~

GOOO ROYALS and CHIEFS~
and if theres a work stoppage, maybe ill take up the game Cricket lmao

Ol' Kansan' Chief

by Kansan_Chief on Mar 31, 2009 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions