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There are two main myths I’m most concerned with related to drafting Crabtree. The first is that WRs are a risk early in the draft, which I sent you info purporting to debunk earlier. The second is that having two elite WRs is a luxury NFL teams can’t afford.

A case for Crabtree | Red Zone

Good read from the Red Zone. Cue UCrawford in 3...2...1...

about 3 years ago Ct_fb_tiny Chris Thorman 17 comments 0 recs  | 

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I dont know about this guy

i want to believe but the corners in the nfl are no jokes. And he comes from a gimmick offense

FOUR F'S FIND UM FEEL UM FUGUM FORGET UM.

by sexassassin on Mar 18, 2009 2:13 PM CDT reply actions  

The whole premise of his argument is a farce

His argument is that its better to draft a WR than a LB in the top of the draft when the truth is you shouldn’t draft either one at the top of the draft. QB, LT or pass rusher are the highest impact positions and in my opinion, if you have a choice should be the only positions you really look at.

Also, his statment that there have been many “superstar” WRs drafted at the top of the draft is highly subjective. He counts Roy Williams as a superstar, but I would not. Williams had one 1000 yd receiving season in 5 years. Likewise with Braylon Edwards with Cleveland. Good? Sure, superstar worth a top 7 pick? No. Calvin Johnson? He could be, but he’s only been around two years.

With a top of the draft pick you want a guy that will make a huge impact on your team. QB, LT, pass rusher. Those positions are on the field every play and contributing while WRs are the “sexy” pick because they are they make big catches that put them on the highlight reel, WRs might touch the ball only 4 or 5 times a game. A good WR is valuable yes. But if you are looking at improving your team, you want to go with the positions that will make the biggest impact and WR isn’t it.

by ChiefDJ on Mar 18, 2009 2:31 PM CDT reply actions  

Fantastic argument

Basically, it’s not that Crabtree wouldn’t be good—he just wouldn’t be as big of a difference-maker as your 3 positions (quarterback, left (or right if you don’t have any IMO) tackle, and pass rusher). I dig, brotha.

-cw

"If there’s a god he’s laughing at us and our football team." - Ben Folds

by webby37 on Mar 18, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Great job...

I think the guys at Red Zone should stick to reporting the news and rumors and less opining because they often make fools of themselves…

by woodman212 on Mar 18, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Completely Agree

He makes a lot of assumptions in that column that undermine his objective arguments.

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.

by UCrawford on Mar 18, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Good points but

I think that even though an elite receiver may touch the ball only 4-5 times a game that can impact almost every play. A defense that has to worry about one or two top flight receivers will play a very different scheme. For instance, Indie usually has a solid running game but the moment their RBs go to another team they usually disappear. Why? Because defense had to account for Harrison and Wayne on every play so they had to play looser against the run. It is not a bad idea to draft a WR receiver in the top 5 if that is the area of greatest need and a player at that position also happens to be rated around that spot. We could use a second receiver, but we NEED many other positions. We need help on the o-line and our defensive front 7. We need better LBs and someone to generate a pass rush. That is why we shouldn’t take Crabtree, he’ll be good but we don’t NEED him.

by Chiefs4Life on Mar 18, 2009 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

People who use Stats

or past drafts as reasons why we should or shouldn’t draft someone are ignorant, every year and every player is different, along with the teams that draft them and their needs

by GracieKal on Mar 18, 2009 2:31 PM CDT reply actions  

Hahaha

Nice shout out. :)

Seriously, though, there are quite a few problems with Babb’s column. First, he’s making his case for Crabtree off the presumption that Crabtree will be an elite wide receiver (1,000 yards, 10 TDs) Which is fine, except that he overlooks the very high probability that he won’t. As we discussed earlier (using a much bigger sample size than Babb), the odds of getting a wide receiver who is elite with that pick is pretty slim. Many elite wide receivers, in fact, weren’t selected in the top 10 picks of the draft. Terrell Owens (who Babb uses as an example) was actually a third-round pick…the Niners selected him behind noted first-round bust J.J. Stokes. Most of the wide receivers selected that high, in fact, were either busts or had maybe a couple of good years but could hardly be called superstars. And there was certainly question over whether or not they contributed that much to the success of the teams that drafted them (as I noted in my column).

Second, he makes this assumption:

Considering the monster Crabtree was in college even on a badly injured ankle, I think he’s the best player in the draft (which I believe was the consensus before all the irrelevant stuff with the minor foot injury came up).

Really? The best player in the draft? Was that before or after they found out he was average height for a WR? Or before they found out they were unable to get a 40 time for him? Shorter wide receivers can certainly do well in the NFL, but they usually struggle to be great if they weren’t also burners and there were definitely questions about Crabtree’s game speed even before foot surgery. So that puts Crabtree too far on the risky side for my tastes. Maybe the guy’s the next Jerry Rice. But I suspect that it’s more likely that he’s the next Peter Warrick…a guy who posted great numbers in college playing in a system that usually posts great passing numbers who’ll have a tough time achieving at an elite level in the NFL (where the defenders are a lot faster than in college).

I’d rather the Chiefs went line or lineman with their pick.

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.

by UCrawford on Mar 18, 2009 2:59 PM CDT reply actions  

Correction

Lineman or linebacker.

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.

by UCrawford on Mar 18, 2009 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Also

the only stats he considers are number of “elite” receivers and wins but leaves out important things like the production of the defenses for those teams. Our defense was the worst in the league last year.He also looks at a four year spread to make his points, but quickly notes that a good team with two top receivers could skew the numbers in favor of his argument. I think Crabtree will be a good receiver but I think we have more pressing needs right now.

by Chiefs4Life on Mar 18, 2009 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Absolutely

Not to mention he doesn’t define his methodology on what defines a bust as a WR. According to the series of articles I linked to in my post on it, WRs have the third highest bust rate of all positions…significantly higher than o-linemen. And although I’d be fine with taking a flier on Crabtree if we had a complete team already, he’s not going to push the Chiefs over the top and we’ve got a lot more holes to fill and a lot of players who aren’t reaches at that position to fill them.

Basically, I’ve gotten to the point where I skim or ignore everything from the Red Zone/UFR that isn’t written by Manley or Doolittle. Babb’s article to my mind redeems that practice.

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.

by UCrawford on Mar 18, 2009 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Clarification

we’ve got a lot more holes to fill and a lot of players who aren’t reaches at that position to fill them who have less of a chance of being terrible picks.

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.

by UCrawford on Mar 18, 2009 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

If we had a complete team

we wouldn’t even have the chance to draft Crabtree. He will go to a team that is far from complete, as will all of the top players. He simply doesn’t play a position of greatest need for us right now.

by Chiefs4Life on Mar 18, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why is Curry so highly rated?

He does make a good point – he isn’t a pass rusher. Aren’t pass rushing LBs important in a 3-4? He did have a great combine and ran a great 40 speed, I know.

I think Curry will be a good player, but Crabtree could be a great player. It’s pretty hard to pass on what looks like the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson.

My bets are on the Chiefs drafting Crabtree. I think Haley wants another Larry Fitzgerald. If he thinks Crabtree could be close to Fitzgerald, the Chiefs will draft him.

by jjbjhawk on Mar 18, 2009 7:29 PM CDT reply actions  

Best since Calvin Johnson?

Wasn’t he drafted a whopping two years ago?

by Chiefs4Life on Mar 18, 2009 11:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

And how good has he been?

I’m glad we have Bowe.

My crystal ball says Jay Cutler cries himself to sleep every night.

by IISaiNtII on Mar 19, 2009 7:22 AM CDT up reply actions  

Johnson's Was Decent His First Year, Spectacular His Second

And we’ll have a better idea which year was closer to the type of player he is after this season. My prediction is he’ll be closer to spectacular than decent.

Predictions for 2009

1. Todd Haley's going to struggle with managing his staff in his rookie year as head coach.
2. The Lions will draft Matt Stafford, the Rams will draft Jason Smith, and the Chiefs will draft either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe.

by UCrawford on Mar 19, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

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