aPacificChief comes through yet again for us talking about college quarterbacks and the Kansas City Chiefs. If you're not familiar with aPacificChief's earlier QB FanPost, make sure you check it out.
So for this morning, we've got offense and defense to talk about, with Primetime's defensive coordinator post right below this one.
aPacificChief's full post is after the jump.
Matthew Stafford JR (6-3 228lbs 21 yrs old) Georgia
Comp % Passing Yds TD INT
2006 53% 1749 7 13
2007 56% 2523 19 10
2008 61% 3209 22 9
Projected to go in the early 1st round. The only QB to start as a TRUE freshman for the Bulldogs since Quincy Carter. What you like about his numbers is that completion percentage, passing yards, and TD's show a steady improvement, and the INT's numbers also go down every year. It is noted by NFL scouts that Matt has an absolute canon for an arm, but has also shown the ability to take something off and throw a touch pass. The big question on Stafford is his inability to evade the rush, he doesn't show the footwork necessary at times to slide out of the rushing lanes. Has also areas of concern with his mind numbing choices when he throws into coverage
Mark Sanchez JR (6-3 225 23 yrs) USC
2007 65% 695 7 5
2008 66% 3207 34 10
Projected to be in the 1st round. Sanchez has also shown an ability to throw the ball with a lot of zip. Has the tools necessary to play QB in the NFL, but the lack of repetitions on the playing field will hurt his chances for success. History has not favored collegiate quarterbacks who have had only one year of starting experience. Could be the next Akili Smith. Mark needed another year at USC to prove that he has the ability to consistently read defenses, and improve his poise under center. Even Pete Carroll admitted that Sanchez's success in the NFL will be difficult.
Graham Harrell SR (6-3 203 23 yrs old) Texas Tech
2005 67% 422 3 0
2006 66% 4555 38 11
2007 71% 5705 48 14
2008 71% 4747 41 7
Projected in rounds 3 to 4. The biggest question I have about this guy, is his arm strength? I believe the reason that he’s rated so low is because of his lack of velocity on his throws. The lack of arm strength will really hurt his ability to play QB in the NFL effectively. Could be another Danny Wuerffel if his arm is not NFL calibur. Has shown the ablitiy to lead, with the come from behind victory against the then #1 ranked Longhorns. Harrell took the Red Raiders down the field with little time on the clock to steal the win from Texas.
Nathan Brown SR (6-1 214 22yrs old) Central Arkansas
2005 69% 2410 25 10
2006 65% 1858 18 8
2007 69% 3084 26 10
2008 67% 3206 31 4
I love this kid. He comes from a small college program, but has started for the Bears for 4 years and is a graduating senior. If he can prove to the NFL scouts that he has above average arm strength, and has shown an ability to elevate his command in the huddle, Nathan might very well be the steal of the draft. Scouts are kind of hush about this guy maybe in a hope to try and sneak him past other teams. Just wait until after the combine, and the weeks prior to the draft, your going to be hearing a lot more of Nathan Brown. Nathan has already gained some attention of several teams including our own scouts. He was also one of the few Quarterbacks to play well at the Senior bowl. What impressed scouts the most was that this small college prospect did not feel overwhelmed by the other kids from the larger programs.
Nate Davis JR (6-2 217 21 yrs) Ball St.
2006 61% 1975 18 8
2007 57% 3667 30 6
2008 64% 3591 26 8
Rumor is that Jacksonville is in love with this guy, that they sent out several scouts to watch him, and they came back liking what they saw. He has a canon for an arm and can make all the NFL throws. Scouts project him in round 3, but I wouldn't be surprised if we hear his name called late in the 1st round or in the second. Another Junior with potential, but the kid has 3 years of starting experience with improvement in his final year at Ball St. which might help his cause when playing in the pro’s. His numbers all showed improvement which could suggest that his development is continuing to progress.
Pat White SR (6-1 192 23 yrs) West Virginia
2005 57% 828 8 5
2006 66% 1655 13 7
2007 67% 1724 14 4
2008 66% 1844 21 7
Pat is 3 year starter for the Mountaineers. Has shown steady improment throughout his collegiate career. A little bit on the skinny side which might not translate well for him staying healthy in the pro's. Has a built similiar to Brodie Croyle, but without the injury history. Arm strength is adequate according to scouts at the Senior Bowl, and has quick enough feet to evade the rush. Could be considered to move to WR like Randle El or Hines Ward.
Josh Freeman JR (6-6 250 20 yrs) Kansas St.
2006 52% 1780 6 15
2007 63% 3353 18 11
2008 58% 2945 20 8
This guy is raw and needs a lot more coaching and repetition playing the QB position. Projected to go in rounds 2 to 3 simply because of his stature and arm strength. Freeman has a chance to succeed in the NFL if given ample time to develop and with proper coaching. History on the other hand does not favor Freeman. Juniors who do not improve their numbers by the time they make the jump to the NFL have a difficult time adjusting to the level of competition in the NFL. I wish this kid went back to school. The extra year would have allowed him to mature at the QB position on his own terms, while at the same time improving his game.
Rhett Bomar SR (6-2 215 24 yrs) Sam Houston St.
2005 54% 2018 10 10
2006 T R A N S F E R E D
2007 59% 2209 10 6
2008 56% 3355 27 13
A former Okalhoma Sooner before transfering to Sam Houston. Rhett looks good except for his completion percentages. He could never crack 60% barrier which does not bode well for the NFL. Has talent but lacks consistency.
Cullen Harper SR (6-4 230 24 yrs) Clemson
2006 70% 155 2 0
2007 65% 2991 27 6
2008 63% 2395 11 12
What I don’t like about Cullen after studying his numbers was how his decision making skills seem to erode in his senior year. Passing yards and TD's went down, while his Int’s doubled from his Junior year. Arm strength again is the primary concern of the NFL scouts.
Curtis Painter SR (6-4 223 24 yrs) Purdue
2005 52% 932 3 5
2006 59% 3985 22 9
2007 62% 3846 29 11
2008 59% 2400 13 11
I don’t know what happened to this guy? He had the making of being a true #1 QB in the NFL, but he just took a nose dive his senior year. A terrible collapse on a player who should have been ready to make the next step. Hardly what scouts want to see from a senior who’s had 2 years of starting experience. He should not have failed so badly in his final year in college. lf you look at his numbers, he almost had 4k yards in ’06 and again in ’07. The game at this point of his college career should be slowing down for him, but to only have 2400 yards in his senior year is just horrible. Maybe he was hurt? I don’t know, but Painter might still be on the board until maybe the 6th round. He could be the next Kyle Orton.
Tom Brandstater SR (6-5 225 25 yrs) Fresno St.
2005 46% 49 1 1
2006 55% 1490 13 14
2007 63% 2654 15 5
2008 60% 2664 18 12
The Fresno State product looks like maybe he will be selected in the 6th to 7th round area. Could be 2nd string backup in the NFL with a chance to be a number one if he plays in the right system with a strong supporting cast around him.
John Parker Wilson SR (6-2 214 24 yrs) Alabama
2005 63% 98 2 0
2006 57% 2707 17 10
2007 52% 2846 18 12
2008 58% 2243 9 7
In the beginning of the season Wilson looked like he had the making of QB being ready to break out and have a sensational Senior year, but then reality set in and the hype came to a screeching halt. After reviewing his career numbers I think he could have a chance at becoming a starting QB in the right system, or be nothing more than a career backup in the NFL. He seems to lack the superstar qualities needed to be true #1 QB in the NFL. JP's career numbers while at Alabama were impressive, and he did break many of Croyle's passing records, but at this stage of his development JP looks more suited of being a capable "Game Manager" than a QB that you would ask to win the game for you.
Willie Tuitama SR. (6-3 220 22 yrs) Arizona
2005 58% 1105 9 5
2006 56% 1335 7 6
2007 62% 3683 28 12
2008 65% 3039 23 8
Strangely enough he was brought up by a member of AP. I didn’t know much about him up until that point, but Willie has shown improvement in his performance every year as being the starter for the Wildcats. Completion % went up every year and his int’s went down. Questions that need to be answered is his arm strength and leadership qualities. If Willie has above average arm strength, and can command respect in the huddle he very well could become something special at some point in the NFL.
David Johnson SR (6-3 220 23 yrs) Tulsa
2005 68% 236 1 1
2006 64% 180 1 0
2007 50% 56 0 0
2008 65% 4059 46 18
This guy is not found on many draft boards, but I guarantee you the NFL scouts know about him. He’s basically a one year wonder, but he did have a tremendous senior year. He’ll probably could be off the board as early as the 3rd because of his sensational senior year, or slip into rounds 4 thru 6 if his arm strength is lacking. I'm sure some NFL teams would be willing to gamble on a project like Johnson later in the draft.
Hunter Cantwell SR (6-4 236 24 yrs) Louisville
2005 69% 640 3 4
2006 64% 700 5 2
2007 57% 79 0 1
2008 59% 2493 16 16
I don’t think this guy will get drafted. Probably a priority undrafted free agent at best. Hunter’s numbers is not very impressive. He might have a shot at playing in the CFL. I guess he would have been better served transferring out to another college instead of sitting behind Brohm.
There you go AP fans your 2009 NFL draft eligible Quarterbacks. For those who need clarification the prospects name is below his picture with his status of being a Junior or Senior, along with that information is his height, weight, and current age.
Now its up to you to decide how the Chiefs fair when they select their Quarterback of the future (QBOTF). Alot of NFL people believe that the Chiefs will be selecting a QB this year we just don’t know in which round? In the eight years that Scott Pioli was VP of player personnel in New England they selected 5 QB's.
The QB's that I would like the Chiefs to select are:
1) Nathan Brown
2) Matt Stafford
3) Nate Davis
4) Graham Harrell.
Of course that's not in draft order as Stafford would go high in the 1st round, but rather the list is based according to who I would prefer over the other. So Nathan could be a bargain pick for us in round 3.
Here are more news clippings on Nathan Brown:
Nathan Brown Lights Up Scoreboard (via jpeepz)
If your wondering about some of the remarks I made about who in my opinion has a better chance of succeeding, opposed to those college QB’s who might have a greater probability of failing in the NFL, I refer you to a piece that I wrote a few months back, "What the Chiefs should be looking for in their QB of the Future." I recommend that you read this previous post otherwise half of the points I mentioned in this piece will be misunderstood.
In both posts you’ll see that the odds are better with the Seniors Quarterbacks overall, epecially if the players have 2 to 3 years of starting experience for their respective programs depending on what year they declared for the NFL. The Junior Quarterback can perform well enough in the NFL if they have a minimum of at least 3 years starting experience at college, but the probablility of the Senior QB doing well is a lot higher for them to achieve Super Star status in the NFL. The college QB on the other hand who had basically one tremendous year whether he was a Junior or Senior will suffer from not having enough game experience. These raw QB prospects also will no longer have the benefit of the World League to perfect their skills. Brad Johnson, Kurt Warner, and Jake Delhomme were all beneficiaries of the World League. (UPDATED)
Look at the numbers, and decide for yourself if there is at least a relation to those QB's who are successful in the NFL, oppose to those who were highly rated out of college, but are no longer in the league. The model shows that the graduating QB’s who are Seniors with at least 2 years of starting experience along with the Junior QB's who have 3 full years of experience have a far greater probability of achieving longevity in the NFL.
I researched further into my assumption to see if I had any misleading points in the theory. What I did find was information that was quite astonishing. I present the names of past QB's who not only supported my model of graduating Seniors, but exceeded the minimum of 2 years starting experience and had gone on to have successful careers in the NFL. If you look at the names you will notice that not only did they do well in the league, but they had reached a level of excellence that would one day have them on the ballot for Canton if they are not already enshrined.
Graduating Senior Quarterbacks
Who have had at least 2 years of starting experience in their college programs:
Steve McNair (Sr.) 3 yr starter Alcorn St.
Doug Williams (Sr.) 3 yr starter Grambling
Jim Kelly (Sr.) 3 yrs starter
John Elway (Sr.) 4yr starter
Dan Marino (Sr.) 3yr starter
Brett Favre (Sr.) 4 yr starter So.Miss,
Troy Aikman (Sr.) 2 yr starter
If you look at the names, not only did these QB's have success in the NFL, but its an impressive list of Super Bowl quarterbacks.
I'll go on further with another list of Quarterbacks who are also enjoying a reasonable amount of success. All are Seniors who graduated from college. Another interesting observation is that all the names listed with the exception of Cutler & Gerrard, were all playing in the playoffs.
Active class of graduating Seniors playing in the NFL
Jay Cutler (Sr.) 4 yr starter
Joe Flacco (Sr.) 2yr starter Delaware
Matt Ryan (Sr.) 2yr starter
Jake Delhomme (Sr.) 4yr starter Louisiana-Lafayette
Peyton Manning (Sr.) 4yr starter
Phillip Rivers (Sr.) 4yr starter
Eli Manning (Sr.) 3yr starter
Donovan McNabb (Sr.) 4 yr starter
David Gerrard (SR.) 4 yr starter East Carolina
So you can see for yourself that the level of competition of being in a major conference or a Division II program does not actually hamper the chances for success in the NFL. Provided the college QB has the intangibles of being a true NFL signal caller, and falls into the categories of being a graduating senior with a minimum of 2 years starting experience from their school. The SR QB statistics should also show improvement throughout his collegiate career in order for it to be factored in as part of the equation for grading him.
Could it be a mere coincidence that all were graduating seniors, or is there another common bond that would link these QB’s success? Could it be that they all ended up on good teams in the NFL that’s why they are doing well, or could it be that their QB play has reached a point that they can elevate their team into performing better. I give Dan Marino as my example of how a QB alone can elevate the performance of a team. In Dan's 17 years in the NFL, Marino only had one running back rush for 1000yds in his 17 years, and a defense who ranked in the top 10 in only 4 out of the 17 years. Yet was still able to achieve a 147 wins to 95 loses throughout his career. Marino also was able to make the playoffs 10 times with the Dolphins. Since 2000 after Dan Marino's retirement the Dolphins win/ loss record was meager 72-72.
When the NFL first allowed Juniors into the league.
Since 1989 the NFL has allowed the Juniors to be draft eligible, and in that time we saw many high profile names labeled by the draft experts as can’t miss prospects. Unfortunately those same prospects have subsequently been relabeled by the NFL as Journeymen or flat out busts. That’s 20 years of material to examine and dissect to see if we have enough evidence to support, or dispute the assumption of success being higher for the Senior over the Junior QB with less than 3 years of experience.
Junior Quarterbacks taken in the draft with high expectations.
Here are the names of the Junior QB’s who declared early for the NFL forgoing their final year of eligibility. The list of Junior QB's were all taken in the first two rounds of the draft. Majority of which were all declared by the NFL scouts as can’t miss prospects coming out of college. The players listed in Bold are no longer in the NFL, and the names in Italics are the QB’s currently in the league but struggling:
Michael Vick (Jr.) 2 yr starter
Jamarcus Russell (Jr.) 2 yr starter
Vince Young (Jr.) 2 1/2 yr starter
Tim Couch (Jr.) 2 yr starter
Alex Smith (Jr.) 2 yr starter
Quincy Carter (Jr.) 2 1/2 yr starter (due to injury his JR yr)
Jeff George (Jr.) 2 yr starter
Andre Ware (Jr.) 1 yr starter
Timm Rosenbach (Jr.) 2 yr starter
Ryan Leaf (Jr.) 2yr starter
David Klingler (Jr.) 2 yr starter
Heath Shuler (Jr.) 1 yr starter
Trent Dilfer (Jr.) 2 1/2 yr starter
Drew Bledsoe (Jr.) 3yr starter Wash. St.
Ben Roethlisberger (Jr.) 3yr starter Miami (Ohio)
This list is shocking isn't it?
The only Juniors who were successful were the JR QB's that had 3 full years of starting experience like Drew Bledsoe, Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. Roethlisberger started for Miami (Ohio) for 3 years, but had also been with the program for 4 years because of his redshirt year in 2000. (UPDATED)
It is not impossible for the Junior QB to achieve a certain level of success in the NFL, but I would say what awaits him is not an easy task ahead. Any QB whether Junior or Senior would benefit from being able to mature behind an incumbent QB, but the question then is how long can a team wait if they have already invested millions of dollars on the prospect before they can expect results? It always falls on the bottom line that dictates the willingness and patience of a franchise to develop their QBOTF. You prefer the rookie QB to sit out his first year before taking the field full time.
So many QB’s are rushed into service because of the demand for quality QB's, and most importantly to see if they have what it takes to play in the NFL. The question that Owners and GM's need to ask themselves is, "How can you realistically expect a young QB prospect to succeed if not given the time to properly mature in dealing with adversity while still in college?" The pressure in the NFL is tremendous as is the shortness of people's ability to remain patient if the young QB struggles, just ask Vince Young.
The Senior Quarterbacks that failed to live up to expectations.
I admit the model is not full proof, and has some anomalies, but not enough to discredit the entire theory. There are QB’s I have found who meet the requirements of 2 yrs starting experience, and had also graduated from college. Yet we are still not able to perform on the NFL gridiron. These senior QB’s are Joey Harrington, Cade McNown, and David Carr.
I was confused on why they were not able to succeed when they meet all the requirements. So I asked questions like, was it the teams who drafted them that ruined their careers, or were they lacking in the other intangibles such as arm strength & leadership qualities? Or could it be as simple as being in the wrong place at the wrong time?
I will never know the answers to those questions. What is left is the fact that only 3 out of 18 seniors failed to live up to their draft status. Unlike the Junior QB who had only three of 15 doing well in the league. The probability that a Senior could thrive in the league is an 84% chance of success. Versus the Junior QB (all having 3 yrs of experience) who had the opposite effect of having an only 20% chance of success, and an 80% chance for failure. If I were a gambling man I would take an 84% chance of success on a Senior QB, than on a 20% chance of success with a Junior QB prospect. Especially if I'm dealing with millions of dollars invested by ownership, and the termination of my contract if I made the wrong choice.
The model is only a tool that could add clarity to an already confusing debate on which QB prospect is actually better, and who is more deserving to be labeled a genuine franchise QB. The model is a better form of making an educated choice in a difficult decision. I would rather make a calculated choice on a college QB to be my future leader of the team, than approaching the college prospect as a High RISK High Reward type candidate. As for me that's just another way of saying that I’m not sure, but I think its right?
Well there you go AP Fans, I only present the numbers and the argument to back up my theory. The decision is now up to you on who is actually a SAFER pick for us to make when the time comes for us to select our QBOTF. But then again the decision is not really ours to make. At least we will know ahead of time if our chances will be a favorable choice, or just a high risk candidate when his name is called in April. So all I can do now is hope that God will bless the decision makers to make the right choice.