Statistical Comparison 4-3 over 3-4 pt. 1
Bear with me hear guys, this is going to take alot of effort and time.
Alot of you are interested in switching to the base 3-4 defense for the 2009 season. You also add your opinions on how we should attain such a defense, i.e. trading Dorsey away to get B.J. Raji. This just don't make sense. For those who are interested I came up with some statistical evidence of why the Chiefs should continue to run the 4-3.
Within the fanpost I will provide the Total Yardage rankings for 2006, 2007, and 2008 seasons, along with providing the system used by each team.
2006
| Ranking | Team | Scheme | Ranking | Team | Scheme |
| 1 | BAL | 3-4 | 17 | TB | 4-3 |
| 2 | JAX | 4-3 | 18 | BUF | 4-3 |
| 3 | OAK | 4-3 | 19 | SEA | 4-3 |
| 4 | MIA | 4-3 | 20 | NYJ | 3-4 |
| 5 | CHI | 4-3 | 21 | IND | 4-3 |
| 6 | NE | 3-4 | 22 | ATL | 4-3 |
| 7 | CAR | 4-3 | 23 | STL | 4-3 |
| 8 | MIN | 4-3 | 24 | HOU | 4-3 |
| 9 | PIT | 3-4 | 25 | NYG | 4-3 |
| 10 | SD | 3-4 | 26 | SF | 3-4 |
| 11 | NO | 4-3 | 27 | CLE | 3-4 |
| 12 | GB | 4-3 | 28 | DET | 4-3 |
| 13 | DAL | 3-4 | 29 | ARI | 4-3 |
| 14 | DEN | 4-3 | 30 | CIN | 4-3 |
| 15 | PHI | 4-3 | 31 | WAS | 4-3 |
| 16 | KC | 4-3 | 32 | TEN |
4-3
|
2007
| Ranking | Team | Scheme | Ranking | Team | Scheme |
| 1 | PIT | 3-4 | 17 | ARI | 4-3 |
| 2 | TB | 4-3 | 18 | NYJ | 3-4 |
| 3 | IND | 4-3 | 19 | DEN | 4-3 |
| 4 | NE | 3-4 | 20 | MIN | 4-3 |
| 5 | TEN | 4-3 | 21 | STL | 4-3 |
| 6 | BAL | 3-4 | 22 | OAK | 4-3 |
| 7 | NYG | 4-3 | 23 | MIA | 3-4 |
| 8 | WAS | 4-3 | 24 | HOU | 4-3 |
| 9 | DAL | 3-4 | 25 | SF | 3-4 |
| 10 | PHI | 4-3 | 26 | NO | 4-3 |
| 11 | GB | 4-3 | 27 | CIN | 4-3 |
| 12 | JAX | 4-3 | 28 | CHI | 4-3 |
| 13 | KC | 4-3 | 29 | ATL | 4-3 |
| 14 | SD | 3-4 | 30 | CLE | 3-4 |
| 15 | SEA | 4-3 | 31 | BUF | 4-3 |
| 16 | CAR | 4-3 | 32 | DET | 4-3 |
2008
| Ranking | Team | Scheme | Ranking | Team | Scheme |
| 1 | PIT | 3-4 | 17 | JAX | 4-3 |
| 2 | BAL | 3-4 | 18 | CAR | 4-3 |
| 3 | PHI | 4-3 | 19 | ARI | 4-3 |
| 4 | WAS | 4-3 | 20 | GB | 4-3 |
| 5 | NYG | 4-3 | 21 | CHI | 4-3 |
| 6 | MIN | 4-3 | 22 | HOU | 4-3 |
| 7 | TEN | 4-3 | 23 | NO | 4-3 |
| 8 | DAL | 3-4 | 24 | ATL | 4-3 |
| 9 | TB | 4-3 | 25 | SD | 3-4 |
| 10 | NE | 3-4 | 26 | CLE | 3-4 |
| 11 | IND | 4-3 | 27 | OAK | 4-3 |
| 12 | CIN | 4-3 | 28 | STL | 4-3 |
| 13 | SF | 3-4 | 29 | DEN | 4-3 |
| 14 | BUF | 4-3 | 30 | SEA | 4-3 |
| 15 | MIA | 3-4 | 31 | KC | 4-3 |
| 16 | NYJ | 3-4 | 32 | DET |
4-3
|
| Top 5 using 4-3 | Top 10 using 4-3 | Top 15 using 4-3 | |
| 2006 | 80% | 60% | 60% |
| 2007 | 60% | 60% | 66% |
| 2008 | 60% | 60% | 60% |
Additionally, of the past 10 Superbowls there have been 13 teams who run the 4-3 and 7 who run the 3-4.
More to come...
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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14 comments
Comments
Not
There are certain teams that run a 3-4 that are good. The same for 4-3. From 2006-2008 only Miami changed their D from 4-3 to 3-4 they went #4 with a 4-3 in 2006 to # 23 with a 3-4 in 2007 to # 15 in 2008 with 3-4.
This would suggest that Denver, Green Bay, and KC will have a worse D in 2009 during transition to 3-4.
Chiefs were # 31. This could get worse are we adding any teams this year? Please Rochester, Mobile.
by Steve_Chiefs on Feb 23, 2009 9:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ha
Very funny Dono. I was like, man that’s a bit harsh. Then I realized it was you who wrote the post!
by Chris Thorman on Feb 24, 2009 6:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Isee where you are going with this
The best D in the league the past 3 years was a 3-4, and the worst D in the league the past 3 years was a 4-3. Very interesting. It is certainly purely coincidental that the in 2 of those 3 years the 3-4 was being executed by the Pitt and the 4-3 by the Lions. The lions should really consider changing to a 3-4.
All losses in the 2009 season will be Herm and Carls fault.
by Idahochief on Feb 23, 2009 9:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
What I'm going to do...
is make a ratio between the two systems and then see the differences. How one system ranks versus the other because there is more teams running the 4-3. I’ll get on it tomorrow.
by Dono on Feb 23, 2009 9:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
heres a stat you may not have factored in
SCOTT PIOLI!!!
He has always drafted for the 3-4, if you want the most out of your team you get the most out of your drafts… solution.. switch to the 3-4.
The last five years the super bowl was won by a 3-4 team three times. The worse team in the league each year ran a 4-3, with the exception of the Miami Dolphins a year ago
We don’t have to trade Dorsey he can play DE he works well in space and you get plenty of that as a 3-4 DE.
Tank Tylers big enough to play 3-4 NT with some coaching up by our soon to be “defensive consultant” Romeo Crennel he could be good, he specializes in D-Line coaching. Think if we draft Curry, apparently they pushed eachother hard in high school, we could get the best out of two players!
All we need in the 3-4 is three solid linebackers, and this draft runs deep at linebackers, we can make the switch.
Time is a great teacher... unfortunately it kills all it's pupils.
by 808NaNz808 on Feb 23, 2009 9:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Jus the 3 LB's huh? that's it?
We don’t need at least 1 man to man cover corner to go in the game when use safety blitz?
We don’t need faster cornerbacks that can recover off the bump coverage at the line and keep up with their intended receiver shooting a fly or a deep post?
Tank Tyler doesn’t even dominate or command double terams in the 43 as a tackle, what the heck makes you think hes all of a sudden going to figure out how to do it in the 34?
Dorsey MIGHT be able to fill in at DE, however hes too short and too slow to contain the edge, and he wont be able to contain the run at the corner or cover a rb screen/short out route. All that means that the LB will be responcible for blitzing AND coverage on Dorsey’s side of the line while Dorsey commands the double team that Tank CANNOT from the wrong position on the field.
So much for disguising your blits packages. It’ll always come from the OLB on the weak side of the line, or the DE (Tamba Hali?) on the weak side. Tamba Hali can’t seem to put any pressure on the QB as a DE in a 43. But I guess he too will just magically start doing it when we switch him to a 34 DE/OLB ?
Did I mention the fact that we don’t have a Safety with enough foot speed to act as a blitzer?
Did I forget to ask you who out back up NT will be? How about the back up DE or either side? Don’t answer yet…. there’s more. Who’s going to play bacp up at the 4 LB positions? No back ups? So no one is ever allowed to get hurt or sick and everyone we put on the field will have to be successful in that position immediately because we don’t have anyone to trade out with?
All we need in the 3-4 is three solid linebackers, and this draft runs deep at linebackers, we can make the switch
Are you serious? I guess technically you are right. If we got 3 LB we could put some guys out on the field lined up in a 34. It would be a lousy 34 with no depth, and the wrong personnel on the field in at least 5 places, but we could do it. Hell, why even get the 3 LB’s? If all we want is a lousy defense that lines up in a 34 we don’t even need the LB’s. Just put Donnie Edwards, DJ, Rocky Boimen, and Pat Thomas out there on the field and go with it.
The Powers Of Astute Observation Are Often Mistaken As Cynacism By Those That Do Not Posses Them -- G.B. Shaw
by Texas Chief on Feb 23, 2009 11:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
holy crap need a tampon?
to make a decent 3-4 we just need some linebackers, all our other guys could be “serviceable” starters until we find some gems in the draft. we could barely put out the personnel for a 4-3 as far as linebackers go. with Dorsey at DE we got some pressure coming off the end, if Tank tyler does better as a NT then Hali will be better, he can handle one on ones.
Disguising BLITZ (“blits” WTF!?) packages? some of the best 3-4 linebackers BLITZ almost every play,take Ware and Porter. They have the ability to drop back and cover but they dominantly BLITZ on almost every play and have the highest sack numbers in the league.
As far as backups, the guys we have on our roster right now would do well as backups that’s were they belong. If we had two sets of elite backers, linemen, and corners we’d have the best D in the NFL BUT WE DONT. You look for starters first not depth, you can find depth in cheapo free agents. If we looked for depth first we’d be drafting guys like Corey Smith in the first instead of Aaron Curry.
As you get your gentle glide nice and snug think about this… You draft for starters when your BUILDING a team. You draft for depth when your PEFRECTING a team… where do we stand?
you want an elite 3-4 your crazy that’s not going to happen in one year.
Time is a great teacher... unfortunately it kills all it's pupils.
by 808NaNz808 on Feb 24, 2009 12:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly my point
you want an elite 3-4 your crazy that’s not going to happen in one year.
but it was YOU who said:
All we need in the 3-4 is three solid linebackers, and this draft runs deep at linebackers, we can make the switch
The whole point of a 34 defense is to be able to confuse an offense. You build a unit that can blitz from OLB/DE/Safety or CB. During the course of the game you change it up to cause confusion. You start by running the blitz from the LB spot the first 3 or 4 times the O lines up in say the spread package. That’s called a “set up”. Then, later in the game when the O lines up in spread you show/sell LB blitz. The QB reads the LB blitz and audibles to a dump off middle slant route, but when the ball is snapped you don’t blitz from the LB spot. You blitz Safety blitz, curl the DE’s to cover the screen on the edges and then drop the LB back into the middle and WHAMO .. Pick – 6!!
The 34 is built on the fact that the offense never knows whats comming. You can’t disguise the safety blitz on the skinny post route, you can flare the OLB’s and crunch the DE’s on the screens. You can bull rush the DE’s and slide the ILB’s to the flat curl-in blitz an OLB etc, etc, etc. The scheme is built on the idea of disguising blitzs and causing confusion. You force the QB into the wrong read, supprize him with a blitz from somewhere unexpected, throw off his timing, and thus sack or force picks by a roaming safety with speed to cover sideline to sideline.
Building a 34 that has the wrong type of player in the backfield and on the line, but 3 or 4 good LB’s will work just as well as running the 43 with no pressure from the front 4. The only difference will be that the 34 is not built to stuff the inside run.
No, I don’t need a tampon. What I need is a debate with someone that knows what a 34 is and doesn’t make statements like :
All we need in the 3-4 is three solid linebackers, and this draft runs deep at linebackers, we can make the switch
We need a hell of a lot more than 3 linebackers. If you can’t see that on your own then I don’t know how to explain it to you.
As far as backups, the guys we have on our roster right now would do well as backups
Yep, sounds good. Let’s put 43 cover 2 zone players on the field as 34 man to man blitz CB’s and Safeties. Then lets stick a 43 weak side tackle that cant command a double team in as a 34 NT that has to commad one. Then lets put a 43 dominate DT known for eating up double teams and pushing the pocket outside at the 34 DE position and expect him to contain the edge so that the new 34 OLB’s can blitz on every single play (because we don’t have the personnel to disguise out blotz packages and change it up). Then let’s seal it all up by having 43 LB’s that are not very good at coverage in space be the back ups for a 34 LB position that demands someone that can cover.
It’s a whole new scheme, and a whole new defensive set. GO ask the Denver Broncos if you don’t believe me. One of the hardest things to do as a D is to switch from a 43 to a 34. It’s not as simple as tossing 3 LB’s that played in a 34 in colege on the field and expecting everything to change.
The switch to a 34 is a project. It will take several seasons to complete, and it’ll take a hell of a lot more than 3 LB’s to make the switch. If KC wants a 34 base defense THIS YEAR then they need 2 LB’s, 1 Speed Safety, 1 man to man “shut down” CB, 1 NT, and 1 DE; and that is just to get it started.
The Powers Of Astute Observation Are Often Mistaken As Cynacism By Those That Do Not Posses Them -- G.B. Shaw
by Texas Chief on Feb 24, 2009 1:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Colts dont run a 3-4
When deep space exploration ramps up, it'll be the corporations that name everything, the IBM Stellar Sphere, the Microsoft Galaxy, Planet Starbucks.
I'd be fine with 9-7 or 10-6 and competiting for the divsion title
by madtheory on Feb 24, 2009 10:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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