Some Drops In The Bucket

And you did prove your point. But watch a Chiefs game. The problem is obvious.

Would explain why two teams put in waiver claims on Bradley.
Odd that according to your charts some have 0 drops.
Nice stuff and I will let Haley weed the WR garden.

Steve – I think the “zero drops” is simply players with no available data … that is, not in the Top 25 for drops so their stats aren’t easily available (without paying)

how many of those “drops” were really simply uncatchable passes? RDO has asked that before, and I think it’s a valid point to consider … a lot of factors weigh into this complicated equation, and we aren’t privy to everything these guys consider … or don’t … or should

rec’d

Sorta makes me sad in the pants, but wow! A statistician’s joy!

but I disagree that there is really a problem with the stat. Just because a guy gets a lot of throws or has a low percentage of completions doesn’t mean that drops would necessarily be the major issue. For example, it shouldn’t be surprising that there are three Raiders receivers on the low percentage list since Jamarcus has such poor accuracy. I’m just surprised that every Oakland receiver isn’t on the list. A low percentage can also show that a receiver doesn’t do a good job of either running routes or getting separation as well.

Also the type of receiver makes a difference. Someone like Welker who makes a LOT of his receptions on short crossing routes should have a higher reception percentage than a wideout who is running deep outs or slants.

So I don’t think your info shows that there is any problem with this, and I expect there is a standard for a drop – in fact I think I’ve heard commentators describe what is defined as a drop. I think KC is indeed doing a record poor job in drops and I think the issus is legit. I think part of the problem is because we don’t have an established number 1 receiver and a lot of players that are new to each other trying to play in a new system. But that doesn’t excuse the drops we’ve had.

Thanks again for taking the time to post it – rec’d.

QB throws with poor touch. Ball is coming out earlier or later than anticipated. Balls are poorly placed.

All of the above could be caused by breakdowns in protection.

I think that being a standout on any of these sorts of leader boards is a red flag. But it looks like it’d be easy to go wrong if you based your decision-making on this information.

Appreciate the wrk that went into it.

Chiefs are the kid in the corner with the DUNCE cap.
Don’y buy it based on the stats given. So agree with RDO in that it is all subjective and so much ballyhoo in a season of negative stats subject to interpretation. We changed Coordinator, QB, playbook, and blocking scheme and give up outlandish number of sacks. To many variables to access blame with all the moving parts. Yet, we say Cassel isn’t starter quality, Albert isn’t a LT, Waters is old, O’Callaghan has performed well with Smith next to him. Granted the Better NT/DT eat up C/RG and we want to upgrade LT or/also RT. The Nickel D gives up big plays on 3rd down yet we think the toto D sucks.
We need a NT, ILB’s and Safeties. Right up the gut is what is killing us game after game.

I think that stat might be the most telling.

Great WRs who get targeted a lot end up with a fair amount of drops, but they get plenty of catches, too. Therefore, you see lots of big names on the “most drops” list.

You don’t see any of the league’s top receivers on the lowest completion percentage list, though…

The fact that Mark Bradley is on both lists, but Bowe isn’t…. well, that tells me that the passing game generally works much better when Cassel throws to Bowe than it does when he threw to Bradley.

I can live with some drops from Bowe, as long as he stays productive and the offense keeps moving forward. Yes, you’d like to see him catch EVERY one.. .but Andre Johnson, Antonio Gates, Randy Moss are all only a couple of drops behind him, and no one would complain if they had Arrowheads on their helmets.

Would be interesting to see how many are former Chiefs players :)

and he belongs to us here at AP! Thanks dude, now guys we got to get him a paying gig doing this!

Dwayne Bowe is not a #1 WR in this league. He drops way too many passes, and what scares me, and yes, I know Todd Haley doesn’t coach the WRs, but that’s how this guy made his way into the NFL, coaching WRs, and yet this unit is one of the worst in the NFL. I’m still not sold Haley is the guy, but this roster is one of the worst in the NFL. Unless Pioli can talk his father-in-law into coaching the Chiefs, then KC’s stuck with Haley for next season.

But not because he’s not good.

Dwayne Bowe is in the top ten for drops. And he is not good.

Read: dropped passes (NBA: turnovers) may be a flawed statistic, but that doesn’t mean the inverse (NFL drops:targets :: NBA turnovers:points) is true. He’s not just dropping more because he’s being targeted more. He’s dropping more because he is not good. End of story.

Brandon Albert is not a #1 LT. Dwayne Bowe is not a #1 WR. Glen Dorsey is not a #1 DT/NT. Derrick Johnson is not a #1 LB. Matt Cassel is not a #1 QB. All that being said, I’m not sure they need to be..but it might be time to start being honest.

Excellent work. I’ve questioned a few of Bowe’s “drops”.

Good stuff RDOguy. I am still in FL getting some rays…but glad I checked in to read your post. Well, back to the beach.

Maybe no concrete conclusions were reached, but this is the kind of well laid out, data driven piece I used to come to AP for (rather than the wild, opinionated rants that seem to pique the most interest).

i was trying to do something similar the other day but got busy digging my neighbors out 4 ft of snow and never really got back to it. i was trying more to determine how often one drops, percentage one drops to how many times they are targeted, as i thought this would be a more accurate depiction of our problem then just number of drops. but like you i had a hard time finding any info. great job. thanks for finding the info i couldn’t

"I have stated my belief that one of the problems with drop statistics is that there are no standards"

A company like STATS must have some standard for determining what constitutes a drop. You and I may not agree with that standard and any standard may involve some element of subjectiveness. But as long as it’s consistently applied to all, the data is relevant.

"It seemed logical to me that a receiver who is among the league leaders in drops would have a pretty low percentage of completed passes"

Not true at all. Having catchable balls thrown your way increases the opportunities for both catches and drops. A high number for both drops and completion % only speaks to the accuracy of the QB.

“Yet even so, already I was suspicious. How is it that Johnson – who has only one reception more than Welker – has seven drops, and Welker has something fewer than seven? Wes Welker is good, of course… but I find it hard to believe that over the course of 16 games in which he’s had 160 passes thrown to him, he’s dropped fewer than seven – especially when Randy Moss (who also has Tom Brady throwing to him) has dropped eight of only 132.”

First of all, your data doesn’t prove that Welker has something less than 7. He may have exactly 7 and wasn’t listed in the top 25 because the web site you pulled top 25 data from simply made the cutoff at 25 regardless of how many players were tied with 7.

Second, finding it “hard to believe” is as conclusionary as the standard you are attempting to debunk. You should simply go where the data leads you. The data leads you to the conclusion that during this year, Welker has shown slightly better hands than Welker.

Third, in your text, you choose to focus on Welker, Moss, Johnson etc and ignore the most telling part of the data. The players with the most drops, including Bowe, Wade and Bradley are not amongst the leaders in targets.

You do absolutely the right thing in comparing drops to targets. If there was more drop data available, it would be very interesting to derive a drop % from the drops/targets ratio.

Unfortunately, inclusion of the completion % is a classic example of including irrelevant data to prove a preconceived hypothesis.

been made by the KC Chiefs head of football operations to the NFL commissioner,who has approved it, that starting next year the Chiefs will be allowed to use velcro footballs and all Chiefs receivers will be issued velcro gloves.

So hopefully this will not be an issue next year. Matt Cassel was the only one using Velcro this year and that accounts for him holding on to the football too long.

thanks to the stats provided by RDO. i calculated how often the receiver droped the ball bassed on how often they saw the ball come their way. since i can’t seem to import a spred sheet into a reply post, the format is as follows:

Player – Team – Targets – Drops – Drop %

Vernon Davis – SFO – 119 – 11 – 9%
Dwayne Bowe – KAN – 86 – 10 – 12%
Mark Bradley – KAN – 57 – 9 – 16%
Bobby Wade – KAN – 69 – 9 – 13%
Louis Murphy – OAK – 87 – 9 – 10%
Terrell Owens – BUF – 101 – 9 – 9%
Brent Celek – PHI – 103 – 9 – 9%
Santonio Holmes – PIT – 135 – 9 – 7%
Ted Ginn Jr. – MIA – 72 – 8 – 11%
Tim Hightower – ARI – 77 – 8 – 10%
Marques Colston – NOR – 104 – 8 – 8%
Dallas Clark – IND – 124 – 8 – 6%
Calvin Johnson – DET – 126 – 8 – 6%
Jerome Harrison – CLE – 48 – 7 – 15%
Randy McMichael – STL – 60 – 7 – 12%
Chansi Stuckey – CLE/NYJ – 65 – 7 – 11%
Michael Crabtree – SFO – 78 – 7 – 9%
Michael Jenkins – ATL – 83 – 7 – 8%
Roy E. Williams – DAL – 87 – 7 – 8%
Mohamed Massaquoi – CLE – 91 – 7 – 8%
Donnie Avery – STL – 93 – 7 – 8%
Mario Manningham – NYG – 99 – 7 – 7%
Antonio Gates – SDG – 110 – 7 – 6%
Randy Moss – NWE – 132 – 7 – 5%
Andre Johnson – HOU – 161 – 7 – 4%

So in RDO’s list of worst droppers only one, Jerome Harrison, has a worse drop percentage then the 3 chiefs on the list. Randy McMichael did tie D-bowe’s drop percentage for some reason that just doesn’t give me a warm and fuzzy.