Chiefs Fantasy Outlook: Week Sixteen vs Cincinnati Bengals

by mushin on Dec 24, 2009 10:04 AM CST

Predictions from Week Fifteen can be found here. The predicted numbers and the actual numbers for last week can be found at the end of this article.

Photo Source

It's fantasy playoff time. Hopefully last week you rode Chris Chambers and Jamaal Charles into your fantasy semi-finals or finals. The KC players put up the best fantasy numbers of the year last week against a horrible Cleveland defense. Lord knows it was the only silver lining a Chiefs fan was able to take away from last Sunday's debacle.

This week the Chiefs face the AFC North leading Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals of 06' these ain't. The high flying offense of a few years ago is gone. The Bengals have turned into a classic AFC North team. Ball control and defense is the calling card of this team now. The Chiefs will have their inconsistent hands full this week.

The Bengals defense has gone from one of the worst in the league year in and year out to a NFL powerhouse. They have only allowed one 100 yard rusher all year. It happened in week 3. Perhaps you've heard of him. Jerome Harrison from the Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati's #3 ranked rushing defense is bad news for KC fantasy value.

The Bengals pass defense has been stingy as well. Ranked 15th in the league, the Bengals secondary can hold it's own. They give up too many big plays to elite WR, but that is probably not going to be a problem for them this week.

Overall this game does not look like a good fantasy matchup for the Chiefs. If you have any KC players, you'll probably want to look elsewhere for your playoffs. Maybe a Bengal?

3 Chiefs and a sleeper after the break

Photo Source

Jamaal Charles

Charles is playing for fantasy relevance next year. Last week's performance against the Browns catapulted Jamaal into a mid-1st round fantasy draft pick in 2010. He's not a good play this week. The Bengals are going to key on Charles and force the KC WRs to beat them downfield. Jamaal's speed always makes him a threat as a fantasy player. One long run and he's money for the week. But, Cincinnati is not allowing RB's to break off long runs. The Bengals have only allowed 3 runs of over 20 yards all year. (Ray Rice- 21 yards, week 5; Jerome Harrison- 21 yards, week 4; Willie Parker- 24 yards, week 3). It's hard to bench Charles, and no one would blame you for playing him any week. Just be aware that the Bengals appear to be built to shut him down.

Jamaal Charles Prediction: 75 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 20 yards receiving, 1 TD

Photo Source

Dwayne Bowe

Sigh. Dwayne Bowe. Means the same thing doesn't it? Bowe's potential makes him a tempting play week in and week out. But keep your pepto handy. Bowe would have had over 100 yards and a TD last week if he would have caught all the balls that hit him in the hands. Instead, he ended up with a pedestrian 56 yards and no TD's. The good news, he kept getting open and the ball was sent his way. The bad news, he kept getting open and the ball was sent his way. Cincinatti does give up big plays. If Bowe pulls his hands out of his ass he could be in for a big day. Inconsistency makes it unlikely. Bowe is a flex player at best.

Dwayne Bowe prediction: 6 catches, 80 yards, 0 TD, 3 drops

Photo Source

Chris Chambers

If you're looking for a Chief to play this week, Chambers might be your guy. Bowe may not be catching the ball, but he is certainly finding seams. The Bengals will not be able to ignore Dwayne, giving Chambers favorable matchups. The Bengals safties are not ball hawks in the passing game, and their starting Free Saftey Chris Crocker is listed as questionable. Chambers should get his fair share of one on one matchups on the outside. Last week he exploded. He most likely won't repeat last week's performance, but he should be a solid #3 WR or flex player this week.

Chris Chambers Prediction: 5 catches, 79 yards, 1 TD

***

KC Fantasy Sleeper

Photo Source

Matt Cassel

If you are thinking about starting Matt Cassel in your playoffs, I feel for you. Things must have gone horribly wrong. You can take a little heart. Matt looked better last week, all things considered. His passes were crisper and on time. He was finding open receivers. But Matt can't catch the ball himself. Cincinnati is going to force him to try. Cassel will have to be on his game if the Chiefs are going to have any chance this week. KC is going to have to throw often to loosen up the Bengals defense for Charles. Interceptions may become a factor. Cincinnati has 17 interceptions this season which is tied for 8th in the league. They are not exactly ball hawks, but their run defense is giving their secondary a disproportionate number of opportunities. The formula for Cassel is simple. If the KC WR figure out how to catch the ball, Matt will have a decent day. If not, Cassel loses your fantasy game for you. Good luck.

Matt Cassel prediction: 234 yards passing, 2 TD, 1 Int

***

Mushin's Week 15 Predictions:

-Jamaal Charles

Jamaal Charles prediction: 103 yards, 3 receptions, 35 yards, 1 TD
actual numbers: 154 yards, 2 receptions, 16 yards, 1 TD

-Dwayne Bowe

Dwayne Bowe prediction: 7 catches, 94 yards, 1 TD

actual numbers: 4 receptions, 56 yards, 0 TD

-Chris Chambes

Chris Chambers prediction: 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

actual numbers: 5 catches, 114 yards, 1 TD

-Ryan Succop

Ryan Succop prediction: 2 FG's, 3 EP's

actual numbers: 2 FG's, 4 EP's

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

Tweet Comment 12 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I look forward to these every week

predicting 3 drops – at least you’re predicting improvement!

"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."

by cpa913 on Dec 24, 2009 10:35 AM CST reply actions

Thank you sir

Only 3 drops. Call me the optimist

10/19/09: The Chiefs are on their way to an 11-5 season...I think....
10/26/09: Okay, so it'll be 10-6, I can live with that...
11/9/09: So KC spots the league 7 games. 9-7 is respectable.
11/30/09: I'll consider 8-8 a success and move on
12/7/09: 7-9? Anybody?
12/14/09: 6-10 is a definite improvement over last year
12/21/09: All I want for Christmas is 5-11

by mushin on Dec 24, 2009 10:58 AM CST up reply actions

I have

Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Steven Jackson and Jamaal Charles. Its a shame I can only start two of them. JC has been in there the past 2 weeks!

by SayHeyWerd on Dec 24, 2009 11:14 AM CST reply actions

That's a tough list there

AP hasn’t looked good the last few weeks. With Favre having a spat with Childress, you might be stuck sitting him on the bench. Chicago is horrible on defense, but Favre might have something to prove this week which hurts AP. I tend to overthink things at times though, and AP is the #2 RB in the game. Go with your gut on this one.

Ray Rice is probably a better start than AP. He absolutely killed the Steelers a few weeks ago. He rushed for 88 yards and had 67 yards receiving. He didn’t find the endzone in that game, but the Steelers didn’t have an answer for him. The Steelers run D is great, but their second level is suckin wind without Polamalu. If you don’t have a good feeling about AP, Rice is your man.

Steven Jackson is the MUST start. The Cardinals run defense only looks good compared to the Chiefs. They gave up 161 yards rushing to the Lions last week, and 167 yards to Frank Gore the week before. Jackson ran for 116 yards and a TD the first time the Rams and Cards got together, and that was when the Cards defense was playing better. The Cards still have an outside chance at the bye week. Minnesota would have to lose both of their last two games for it to happen, but Zona has the tie breaker. Long and short, the Cards are still going to be playing all out, but the only way I sit Jackson is if he comes down with swine flu.

Charles is the last choice of these 4 in my opinion. It’s not a knock on Jamaal, it’s about how well the Bengals are playing. 3 runs of over 20 yards all year!! That’s redonkulous.

All in all, I’m jealous as hell of your ‘problem’ here.

by mushin on Dec 24, 2009 11:50 AM CST up reply actions

yeah man

I’ve been trying all year to trade 1 for a receiver. My receivers arent bad cuz i picked up some good ones mid season before they put up big numbers (Sidney Rice, Sim Walker). I currently have both Steve Smiths, Rice, Sims Walker and Kenny Britt. Im in the finals cuz i won by a single point thanks to Carolina Smith’s 20 point game. Sims Walkers too risky to start anymore.
I agree with you, I’m starting Rice and Jackson. Jacksons a top 5 and maybe even top 3 running back in the NFL, but that doesnt really translate to top 5 fantasy player because he doesnt score. If Rams had any passing game he would be a must start every week. I’ve only started him 4 or 5 times this year. Rice has started my last 10 games or so, he’s my best player I’d say.

by SayHeyWerd on Dec 24, 2009 12:31 PM CST up reply actions

I drafted Eddie Royal and Santana Moss pretty high, which screwed me over

by SayHeyWerd on Dec 24, 2009 12:32 PM CST up reply actions

Eddie Royal was may keeper this year...bleh...

I actually managed to trade Larry Fitzgerald to someone who need a WR so bad they gave up Chris Johnson. I went from dead last in the league to finishing number 3.

by mushin on Dec 24, 2009 12:43 PM CST up reply actions

Have to Admit...

I’m a believer, Mushin. You come pretty damn close on your predictions week in and week out. I dig that about ya, you’re the goods. I actually have Succop, Charles, and Bowe, and started them all last week. If Bowe had held on to all of his catches, including that TD drop, I’d be in the championship game instead of vying for 3rd place this week. Uuuuggghhhh!!!! Sooo, long story short, I’m only rolling with Charles this week. Until the kid proves me wrong, I’m a believer. In my league, you get to keep one from year to year. I’m considering keeping Jamaal over Drew Brees, but am still leaning toward Brees…

Things to get the Chiefs back on the winning side of football:

1. Haley resign as offensive coordinator or do the following;
a. Feed JC more
b. Take the cuffs off of Cassel and let him air it out
2. Fire Clancy "Calls" Playslikeass

by kcchiefsfan72 on Dec 24, 2009 11:19 AM CST reply actions

I love Charles, but you have to stick with Brees

You have to believe that the KC offense will be better next season. Still, Charles will be, at best, the number 6 RB behind Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, MJD and Ray Rice.

Drew Brees is arguably the number 1 QB. He is not quite as consistent as Manning, but he has the potential to put up more points than any player not named Chris Johnson on any given week. Plus he has the added bonus of the entire offense running through him.

Charles is dependent on too many outside factors. I would keep Charles over any WR, but I don’t think I could keep him over Brees.

by mushin on Dec 24, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions