Are we better off losing the final two games?
by jmcgoblue on Dec 24, 2009 7:45 AM CST
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I know it's not a very popular opinion to say we are better off losing to get a better draft position, and I would have agreed until last week, but I think the Chiefs have finally reached the point where the team has a lot to lose by pulling out a win or two over the final two weeks. Yeah, it would feel good to play spoiler to LJ's Bengals or (particularly) the Broncos, but the temporary satisfaction that would come from either of those wins could be offset by substantial long-term negative consequences for Kansas City.
Currently we are in position to draft 5th overall in the first round, behind St. Louis (1-13), Tampa Bay (2-12), Detroit (2-12) and Cleveland (3-11). Sitting behind us is Washington at 4-10 and followed by Seattle, Chicago, Oakland and Buffalo...each at 5-9. So, if all of these teams lose out, and KC wins out, the lowest draft position we could end up with in the first round is #10 (depending on final strength of schedule) if we win out and all of the 5-9 teams lose their final two games.
The interesting thing here is that we could end up actually drafting at #2 overall, if we don't win another game (assuming here that the probability of St Louis winning their final two games is zero, which I'd say is a pretty safe assumption).
Following are the remaining schedules for each of the teams .
St. Louis (1-13): @Arizona, San Francisco
Tampa Bay (2-12): @ New Orleans, Atlanta
Detroit (2-12): @San Francisco, Chicago
Cleveland (3-11): Oakland, Jacksonville
Kansas City (3-11): @ Cincy, @ Denver
Washington (4-10): Dallas, @ San Diego
Seattle (5-9): @ GB, Tennesee
Chicago (5-9): Minnesota, @ Detroit
Oakland (5-9): @ Cleveland, Baltimore
Buffalo (5-9): @Atlanta, Indy
Based on these schedules, I would say that Tampa Bay has a legit shot at beating Atlanta and Detroit should beat Chicago...which would take both of those teams to 3-13. Cleveland could win either of their two final games, being at home against warm weather teams, but I'll assume they win one and finish 4-12. Washington looks to have given up on the season already so I expect them to finish 4-12 as well. Seattle looks bad & has two tough opponents with everything to play for, so they should finish 5-11 (along with Chicago, who has also given up). Oakland and Buffalo could each easily win one of their remaining games, so I'll peg both of them going 6-10.
Based on these projections, KC would pick in the following positions based on how they do:
Finish 3-13: Pick 2-4
Finish 4-12: Pick 4-6
Finish 5-11: Pick 6-8
The point of this post is to discuss the draft ramifications of the Chiefs final record. Since they seem to be the most popular Mock Draft picks among AP folks, I'm going to assume that we want to draft Berry, Okung or Suh with our first pick. Finishing 3-13 almost ensures that one of these players will be available when we are drafting. Finishing 4-12 or 5-11 makes it much less clear-cut that the player will be available, as we will likely go from drafting 3rd overall to either 5th or 7th (based on strength of schedule at each of those win totals). Some would say that the salary demands of higher picks makes them less desireable, but the difference in guaranteed contract size going from #3 to #7 is only about $10 million over 5 seasons. It's a significant difference, but it may very well be worthwhile if it means getting the player KC wants the most. There are obvious ramifications in the later rounds as well. Picking 2-4 slots later in the 2nd, 3rd & 4th rounds could mean the difference between drafting a coveted player (perhaps Cody in the second round, for example) and a player Pioli just likes. You get the idea.
I'm not advocating intentionally tanking the final two games, but I do think it's time to let go of the win at all costs mentality. Give the banged up starters a rest & let some of the younger guys have a chance for significant game action. Even if he can play, let Dorsey rest & give Magee significant time on 1st & 2nd down. Let Donald Washington, Pier Walters, Andy Studebaker, Quinten Lawerence and Javarris Williams get some more game action, the team will be better off for it going into next season. These guys will have more experience to learn from, there will be less risk for major injuries to our core players, and the team may just have a better rookie class to work with next year & beyond.
| . | Matthew Stafford | QB | Detroit | Signed | 6 years, $72 million ($41.7M guaranteed) |
| 2. | Jason Smith | OT | St. Louis | Signed | 5 years, $61.775 million ($33M guaranteed) |
| 3. | Tyson Jackson | DE | Kansas City | Signed | 5 years, $57 million ($31M guaranteed) |
| 4. | Aaron Curry | LB | Seattle | Signed | 6 years, $60 million ($34M guaranteed) |
| 5. | Mark Sanchez | QB | N.Y. Jets | Signed | 5 years, $60 million ($28M guaranteed) |
| 6. | Andre Smith | OT | Cincinnati | Signed | 4 years, $26 million ($21M guaranteed) |
| 7. | Darrius Heyward-Bey | WR | Oakland | Signed | 5 years, $38.25 million ($23.5M guaranteed) |
| 8. | Eugene Monroe | OT | Jacksonville | Signed | 5 years, $35.4 million ($19.2M guaranteed) |
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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I love the idea of giving some of these younger guys a chance
to show what they can do, but I can’t stand even the suggestion that it would be better for the Chiefs to lose the last couple of games so they can get a better draft position.
John
"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"
yeah... the TEAM can't even think about it.
but, the fans can :)
AND, it’s pretty likely they WILL lose out… even if they aren’t trying to.
I’m as much of a Koolaid drinker as the next guy, but these are 2 tough games for KC
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
* Stats are for losers
Yeah
The odds are that we won’t win either of these games, since both opponents have a lot to play for. I do think Cincy may be off their game though. I know there’s no way that Haley goes into the games trying to lose, considering that it’s HIM who will be evaluated on the record.
If the younger guys step in & somehow win, that’s great…but it may feel bittersweet in April.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
yeah
either way, KC will have good position in the draft… a top 10 pick SHOULD net you a VERY good player…. and Pioli generally is believed to know what he’s doing.
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
* Stats are for losers
If we are all sold on Berry we want to lose these two games.
If we are not sold on Berry and would like a OLB or ILB instead then winning is better.
For everyone who want OL 1st rd this year will have much better value on OL in the 2nd. even if we spend both seconds on the O-Line. With the right moves in FA that is the way I go to with Iupati and Walton in the 2nd.
However if we lose out on Berry who do we take? McClain seems to me as the next best player. or maybe Hardy at OLB. What do you think I have boiled it down to Berry, McClain, or Hardy. OG and C in the 2nd S or OLB in the 3rd with or without getting Berry. And I would love for us to figure a way to trade into the 2nd or 3rd rd again using Williams and draft picks to do it throw in as many solid backups as we have to to geta deal done. 3 players and 2, 5th rd picks if that is what it takes.
a couple of things
Berry COULD easily be there at #5, given team needs
Iupati could easily be gone by the 2nd, given his rising stock
I think McClain might be the next best player after Berry, Suh, Okung… but you never know what Pioli will do
I think he’ll try to make some trades, though I’m not sure who on the team would bring the picks you’re looking for…maybe DJ or Waters IF they choose not to keep them around
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
* Stats are for losers
I'm am actually not against Iupati in the 1st
OH I said it and here comes the YOU CANT TAKE A GUARD IN THE TOP 10. He is BPA at his position and will be around for 10+ years.
I probably go Hardy if Berry is gone but I want Iupati bad enough to take him.
If we can’t get Antonio Bryant in FA I could even see going Dez Bryant in the Draft.
i agree you can't take a guard in the top 10
:)
I’d go McClain if Berry, Suh, Okung are gone…
or maybe haden
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
* Stats are for losers
stagdsp
Is that a new rule that I’ve never heard about?If we take a BPA for a position of need,what’s the difference when we get him?If he’s as good as everyone says wouldn’t that be the smart thing to do?I’m not trying to argue(especially @ Christmas),but Why not?Merry Christmas.
John Soellner
$10 million over 5 years difference was the number that was thrown out.
Listening to you guys, it doesn’t sound like a whole lotta money, especially if, over the course of 10 years, you took 2nd-best, he was not quite up to the job, and you frittered away $1 million here and $1 million there, looking fruitlessly for bargain solutions. This is out-of-the-box thinking, for sure. Nice.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
That's my mantra, too.
This up-near-the-top stuff really has a lot of us (myself included) in the position of saying “I want DIAMONDS at these DIAMOND PRICES!” when really what we need is lots and lots of tool steel.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
merry christmas to you
kraytastic
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
* Stats are for losers
I hate KOOL-AID
But agree we lose both game’s, no more sugar coated cookies from me.
by CPT.Caveman on Dec 24, 2009 12:19 PM CST up reply actions
You know I keep saying that
except for me it’s those damn Trader Joe’s Peppermint Joe Joe’s. Things are like crack, and therefore I keep eating them, week in, week out… Hoping….
by Eastcoastransplant on Dec 24, 2009 12:24 PM CST up reply actions
I remember craving that stuff as a kid
and always feeling empty and dissatisfied, craving more. Didn’t help that Mom used about 1/3 or 1/4 of the sugar. Just enough to tease, but never satisfying. Heh.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
It's hard to say
If winning means that we can’t get a guy like Berry, who (lets assume) can come in and be an immediate playmaker, and remain one for the next 10 seasons, are we really better off winning?
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
I want Berry, Iupati, Rolle, and Walton however we have to go about getting them.
If we cannot get Iupati if he does not fall to the second put, Spikes, Hughes, Tate, Gerhardt
In that spot who ever is available in that order from fav to least fav.. But I WANT IUPATI.
But what abou the psychological effects?
We win some of those games, even one, and that goes a long way to helping out players understand they can win. In the end, the draft is a crapshoot and having that psychological win going into the offseason may well be way more important.
by Eastcoastransplant on Dec 24, 2009 12:25 PM CST up reply actions
agreed
winning mentality is more important than a couple of draft slots
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
* Stats are for losers
I want the Chiefs to win and the Falcons to lose.
That said, it’s unlikely the Chiefs will win 2 road games against good teams with the playoffs on the line for them.
Toby is in HR, which technically means he works for corporate, so he's really not a part of our family. Also, he's divorced, so he's really not a part of his family.
by Rev. Slappy on Dec 24, 2009 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah
But I think it is way important (at the least) to play competitively. And not get blown out again.
For the sake of this post, winning is more important than losing for draft picks. In reality? I’m not holding my breadth…
by Eastcoastransplant on Dec 24, 2009 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
Yes I want really competitive games that we COULD win.
If the team knows that the D is going to cal plays for them to mess up on LATE in the game to give the lead back the PLAYERS will still get the EGO boost.
IN other words a LEAD going into the 4th quarter is what im looking for
In the last two games. Not neccesarily Wins
Agreed. Along the lines of what stagdsp said at 10:44 PST, I think the Chiefs prepare their best to win,
but still come up short.
But they’re angry at Denver. And if LJ gets significant minutes, they know they can get their hands on him, and just need to wrap up. I’ll be hoping for victory, in my heart, and mentally ticking off the million things that have to go RIGHT for it to happen.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Your right it is a touchy subject for fans. I have to say that if it wasn't for the enormous
money you have to pay an unproven rookie I might be tempted to say yes. But that being true, I don’t know. I mean it’s not good for our team to lose like this. But then again I don’t how many of the members of “our team” will even be on “our team” next year.
I know the right thing is win, win, win. But sometimes you have to lose to win. I just don’t know. It depends on who’s available in the draft and I don’t know college players. If there was a guy in the top 3 who could change this defense for us then I say let all the backups play and let the chips fall where they may.
Sucks to even have to have a discussion like this about the Chiefs. urrrggh!
also I don't what that term "core" means with the Chiefs. Who's the "core"?
I don’t know who’s safe and who’s not. I don’t know Pioli’s mindset like Carl Petersons. I’m sure Carl would trade Jamaal Charles away for spitting on the floor or something stupid like that. Then he would go back up Adrian Pederson and make us look even stupider than losing Jared Allen did.
Well, by core I meant the regular starters
but I see what you mean, there aren’t many players who aren’t at risk of being traded or cut…probably less than a dozen.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
Sure
But shouldn’t he ‘come home’ for christmas?
Merry Christmas buddy! May the new year bring you new wisdom on the brilliance that is Matt Cassel ;)
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
Disagree. Carl would treat Charles as the annointed one, and gush about him at every opportunity in the media.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
glad jared is gone...
he is one dimensional player…
notice that the vikes are losing cuz people are running at him?
roflmao
by kcstevesportsfan on Dec 25, 2009 2:37 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I've seen running room off his inside shoulder.
Hard to argue that he’s not blowin’ up the weak side almost every down, and it limits what offenses can do.
I just know that, for some reason, The As the Favre Turns show has me secretly rooting against the Vikes.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
core…Dorsey, Jackson, Flowers, Carr, Albert, Cassel, Charles, Bowe, Succop, Colquitt, Magee
IMHO, that is.
Also very likely to return Chambers, O’Callaghan, Waters, Belcher, Wade Smith, Ndukwe, Alleman, Cottam, Pope, Studebaker, Copper, Morgan
Haley/Pioli "projects" that will likely be given AMPLE time to develop: Lance Long, Lawrence, Washington, O’Connell, Colin Brown, Javarris Williams
By my count, that’s at least 29 players that will be back in the fold next season… and there are probably quite a few that I’m forgetting
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
* Stats are for losers
Not much. About 8 tackles and 2 sacks is all.
Been instrumental in making good things happen a time or two. Been on the field when some bad things happened, also. And I don’t think he finished the one game we had without Dorsey last Sunday. He looks like the 3rd-round-pick-with-upside that he sized up to be, and he’s seen some quality minutes in his first year. I definitely think he’ll stick for the longer-term, and be a swing player. Should bring good depth at DE for years to come, if he keeps developing. Hard to judge either of our rookie DEs without a more dominant NT in place.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
It's never good to lose
errrrver……..top5 picks are such a gamble anymore……this team needs to learn how to win, period.
by reedeasy on Dec 24, 2009 8:24 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Would have to strongly disagree
Reason 1 top five picks are very rarely traded and the amount of money these unproven players receive is huge if you make a mistake with one of those picks it can put you behind the eight ball for years see detroit and the raiders for examples.
Reason 2 this team needs to learn how to win games, not try to lose to get a better draft position.There is some talent on this team, they are obviously not there yet but I beleive they are improving in that area. Give Pioli and Haley a year or two and lets see what they can do with this group. Yes they made some big mistakes overestimating some of the talent they had to start with and brought in some questionable people.But who do you think wants to come to KC right now. We all see plqyers in free agency and just say well sign them but forget that free agency means the player can sign with whoever they want qnd that generaly means a winner for better talent. They will have to get better right now with the draft then grab a few key free agents when the playing field is more level. I believe they more picks and tading down is their best option trying to grab as many 2nd and 3rd rounders as possible and that will be hard with a top 5 pick.
A little late
MY comment was a little late Reedeasy said exactly what I was thinking only shorter RECD
by rockymtnchief on Dec 24, 2009 8:34 AM CST up reply actions
A little redundancy is unavoidable in this medium.
You put it your own way, and that’s… okay.
With all the apparent mistakes, Pioli didn’t mortgage the future for any of ‘em, except Cassel, and even there, he risked less with more certainty than anybody who took QB in the 1st round. I thought he messed-up in not protecting his big investment, but he picked a big, strong guy who’s already shown his toughness, and there was a clear need for a change of culture.
Your Reason 1: Never discount the lust for star-power by GMs. A trade is unlikely with anyone sane, but luckily for us, there’s a fair amount of insanity out there, which explains the Raiders and Lions.
Your Reason 2: I guess I sorta addressed the “big mistakes.” I guess I’d argue with how big they were.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
I know it's difficult to trade top-5 picks
But I do think it would be possible if Suh is still on the board, he seems to be coveted by everyone who needs a DT. It might be possible to move down a few slots & net a 2nd rounder…Seattle and SF both have two first round picks, so it may be possible to swap with one of them. Of course if he’s not still on the board then yeah, it’s a bad position to be in from a salary standpoint.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
IMO, it's a mistake to get wrapped up about trying to get a particular player
History shows that if the people making the selections have any intelligence at all, quality players can be found throughout the draft; in other words, skill at making selections > draft position. So if you believe Pioli is the man, the most important thing is to win these last two games. The Chiefs desperately need to close this season on a positive note.
BTW… after the Pittsburgh victory, I believed that the Chiefs would win only one – maybe two – of the final games; I thought they’d lose against both the Browns and the Bills, and win one of the last two. I’m hoping it will be Denver – if not also Cincinatti. That would be a positive end to the season.
John
"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"
True
but if Pioli is indeed ‘The Man’, doesn’t it make sense to give him the largest pool of available players possible to make his selections from? It’s clear from the TJ pick that he doesn’t really care about what outsiders consider draft value, so he’s going to take ‘his’ guy no matter what the draft position…a higher pick in each round helps ensure his guy is still available.
Really, I could go either way on this argument. The question of what the best draft position would be can’t really be answered until late April.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
Well, there you go.
If Pioli’s going to take his guy no matter what anybody else thinks – which, given last year’s first round, certainly seems possible – then what difference does it make if we lose out and gain a couple of positions in the draft? In fact, that’s even MORE reason to win out – because if we’re going to get player X regardless of when we pick, shouldn’t we pick later, so we can save cap space?
But that’s all pretty metaphysical. P&H have talked a lot about instilling a “winning culture” in this team. I think that’s a fine idea, and hope that what they’re doing will bring that result. But there’s only one thing I know that is guaranteed to bring that culture to a team: to win some freaking games! IMO, that’s far more important that where you pick in the draft.
John
"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"
I like that.
And I know how pissed you’ll be if they DON’T win! You’re hard core, man!
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Well, thanks, HMills
I have to say that I much prefer being labeled “hard-core” than being accused of not being a real Chiefs fan… simply because I am a slave to facts.
John
"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"
Just call 'em like you see 'em, and don't take disagreements personally, and we cool.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
agree
Suh or a quarterback only way we can trade A top 5 pick. but I don’t believe Suh will be there when we pick unless we get to the 2nd pick and that is unlikely to happen. We need quantity on that most of us agree, the more 1st, 2nd and even 3rd rounders we can get the better. I would even be willing to trade Bowe if we could get something in return. The guy has some skills but seems to be a classic underachiever IMO. Love the fact we have 3 5th rounders and believe Pioli can do something with those in the late 3rd or 4th if someone falls.
by rockymtnchief on Dec 24, 2009 8:55 AM CST up reply actions
I'd say it's pretty likely that we'll finish tied for the 2nd worst record though
Detroit really should beat Chicago at home. Tampa Bay beating Atlanta is more iffy, but with it being a home game & Atlanta being banged up it could easily happen. After that it all depends on strength of schedule.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
Losing is not an option.
If you’re more worried about the draft, you gave up on the season. Thats not what championship teams do.
by worc on Dec 24, 2009 9:20 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I'm not saying the players or coaching staff should try to lose
I’m saying that the team may be better off in the long run by losing.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
also
I DO advocate playing some of the younger backups to give them more game experience, even if it gives us less chance of winning these final games.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
# wins = We are not a good team.
Losses to Denver and Cinci makes since as they are both winning teams as their record indicates and we are a losing team. Witch means we wont have to try not to win we will probably just get beat but if we can keep those games close and have a lead going ino the 4th We have something to hang our hats on and boost players ego by being competitive in the games.
Drafting in the top 5 hurts more than it helps
The only way we end up better off is if we find a team willing to give up a lot to get a player it really wants. If we get stuck like in the last draft we end up either over paying for an unproven rookie, or reaching for a player we can only hope to develop. Until there is a rookie salary cap in place the top 5 – 10 draft picks cost way too much for a player you can only hope pans out.
All one has to do is to look at the Raiders and the draft, They have Russel now as a 3rd string QB making more than many starters in the league. At one time drafting high was meant to help a team improve, that’s no longer the case, with draft positions meaning X amount of dollars to an agent, and always the possibility of a hold out (see Crabtree) or a bust (see Russel) Winning should be the only thing the team needs to worry about the Draft is the GM’s and the scouts worry.
is it me? or isn't about time the Lamar Hunt trophy belonged to His team?
This Chiefs team is closer to a new expansion team than it is a playoff contender, your expectations should match that.
We are going to be in the top 10 no matter what
most likely anywhere from #3 to #8 overall.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
And yet, with that pattern of behavior, Alice's team is ahead of us.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
HELLO!!! YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!
You really should get professional help. Your obsession with ND football is not healthy. ---Dr. lookingdeadred
A thought
But what are the stats of top 5 picks helping turn their teams around? Teams in our situation, that were salivating for this pick or that pick, and upon completion of the draft, those top 5 players panning out such that the salivation was warranted? We can fantasize all we want, but as AP’ers have said, it is a team effort. We need talent, upgrades etc. But will that top 5 pick really impact us so much that our team will improve because of that? Vs. top 8? Vs. top 10?
by Eastcoastransplant on Dec 24, 2009 12:33 PM CST reply actions
devil's advocate
part of having a good pick in the draft is setting yourself up to having the top picks in the other rounds, not just the first…
those other “top of the round” picks are pretty valuable, too
I do agree though, that one player doesn’t make a whole team, and a top pick probably won’t make a ton of difference as compared to a pick a few down the list.
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
* Stats are for losers
Stag makes a good point
also, there is usually one or two players at the top of the draft who have truely outstanding careers…the others turn out to be solid NFL players or busts. The only player I’m completely sold on (based on the scouting reports) and who would fit in with KC would be Eric Berry. It may be a moot point as he might be available even if we draft at 6 or 7, but if we end up missing out on him because we won a game or two at the end of the season. It’s impossible to tell at this point obviously, but it would sure be depressing if KC misses out on a consistant All-Pro player because we won a garbage game or two at the end of the year.
And as Stag mentioned, the effect cascades down to the lower rounds as well.
That said, we dont’ watch football hoping to see our team lose games.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
well
u will try and win anyway what the chiefs need is what i call a game chaner this will not happen but if bill cower said he wanted the chiefs head coach job u wouild need to give it to him
okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule
Not so fast my Friend :)
Merry Christmas J !
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 24, 2009 3:23 PM CST up reply actions
j-man is right as usual, Steve
I’d take Cowher in a heartbeat … I’d even trade kray for Cowher
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisiton!
u too
steve i hope u get everything u want except a KC win at DEN
okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule
What is this stuff about Denver not wanting a NT in the draft
Or does Coach have a secret plan with Wilfork?
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 24, 2009 3:32 PM CST up reply actions
wow
did not know that well we have a guy named chris baker that not bad no way den gets wilfork i wouild love it and we have R fidles that is good also
okay i have cereal palsy arhrtis and chronic fatiue as well i have a grea life loveing folks some days are better that other days i got a make a wish in 2001 saw my favorive team the broncos was the trip of the lifetime i wish everyone couild gotten to enjoy that with me i know some of u hate the broncos and that ok but i bleed organ and bule
Answer to the article: No.
Losing is never better than winning. We have too many needs in the draft to care about a couple of spots in the order. Whoever is available when we pick is who we need. Best player available and plug him in. Every position needs an upgrade. The best thing we can do is win our last two to leave a better taste in the players mouths during the off-season. It will help resign a guy like Chambers.
Sensible.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
doubt we're going to win either game, really doesn't matter much ...
whoever we get, barring a trade for a lower pick, we end up with a 5 yr/$60mil rookie who may or MAY NOT pan out
given that we SEEM to have DL taken care of, I’d PREFER someone for OL, regardless of how high the pick is – I think you draft for position at higher rounds and later on draft BPA
regardless, it makes zero difference what WE want, only thing that will ultimately matter is what Pioli wants, for better or for worse
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisiton!
I don't think winning will be a problem...
If it happens, good! If not, saw it coming.
Don't forget to be an AP-vangelist...Tell A Friend...
The answer to your question is no.
This team can not afford to keep paying top 5 picks. In fact no team can . I sincerely hope we somehow pull out our last two games for the sake of this teams future. If you whiff on a top 5 pick it haunts you for years.
OU SUCKS!!!!!!
I like the idea of picking in the 3-5 range because if another team wants a player that happens to fall into those spots, we can move to later in the first and pick up another draft pick. Pioli is more comfortable picking later in the rounds and we won’y have to pay high pick money and thats more to be spent on free agents.
Unfortunately....
that’s a pretty big “if”
John
"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"
Win-win or lose-lose.
Get into the top 3 and there are 3 guys most likely believed to be dominant. It would simply my calculus!
I can imagine numerous teams willing to trade up to snatch Suh or Berry, in particular. So if we lose out and wind up in the top 3, it might actually be easier to trade down! The 4th and 5th might actually turn out to be the Dead Zone, where, if that’s where Pioli winds up (likely), he’ll piss 3/4 of us off, by making a non-sexy pick, based on the highest likelihood of a quality starter at whatever position, with a bias towards the trenches.
So getting into that top 3 might actually increase the likelihood of most of us getting our wish, and picking up a lower 1st and one or more later picks. And I’ll be the first (and likely last) to say it, but I get this twinge about Belichick holding all those 2nd-rounders and needing a dominant 3-4 DE. Wouldn’t that be a piss-cutter of a trade? Suh (or the privilege of selecting him) for a late 1st-plus?
I’m just sayin’.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
I agree with you
I could see a team trading up with us to get Suh or that Notre Dame QB, if they think whoever is behind us would be wanting the guy. If those guys are off the board, not so much.
I have a crazy dream that KC can trade down to 6 or 7 & get an additional 2nd rounder…then trade down again to the middle of the 1st round & get yet another 2nd. It’s unlikely, but similar things have happened in the past.
On another note, does the fact that I’m on AP on Christmas day indicate an addiction?! I’m getting concerned for myself.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
Yes. We're thinking exactly the same things (on all points). Scary-weird. A cry for help.
As long as I get out and take a whack at the ice on the front walk before sundown, I’ll feel pretty good about the day’s accomplishments. Living far from family, this is a good day to reflect on how all my wonderful new friends in the new town are not family. They’re good people, but I’m, at best, a holiday charity case of a guest, and that’s gotten old. Just me ‘n’ Black Cat, surviving after yesterday’s deep freeze.
I mentioned the possibility of maybe hittin’ twice with the trade-down. I think we’d be lucky to hit the 1st trade-down, and then likely pull the rug out from under PIT or some such team that lusts for Cody or Williams at a more sensible mid- to late-1st-round pick.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Wouldn't that be fun
If we can just steal a picked NT from Denver, Pitt, Miami, or SD. That would be cool
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 25, 2009 4:19 PM CST up reply actions
It'd be cool if it came after a trade-down. Less cool if no trade-down.
However it’s done, I want a dominant 3-man front. But to be honest, I have buyer’s remorse about Terrence Cody, and the Chiefs haven’t even picked him, yet. And though Dan Williams is touted as one of two real-deal NTs, I’m not sure he’d be much over 300 lbs after Haley had at him.
But I do think that Jackson was a logical pick for Denver, where they were sitting last year, and Williams or Cody very well mightn’t last past the middle of the 1st, even though your simulation thingie predicts Williams will fall to KC in the 2nd.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Maybe a new prospect
Jerrell Powe
6-2 330lbs. Ole Miss
Nose Tackle
2009: 30 Tackles, 11 Tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 interception
don’t know if many of you guys know of him, but he was a highly recruited high school prospect that basically ate his way out of shape after going to Ole Miss. he shed a bunch of weight and has been an absolute force this season. he’s got prototypical NT size and strength, plays with great leverage and has short area quickness and burst. i’ve heard him compared to BJ Raji by some draftniks, but IMO is not on Raji’s level when it comes to athleticism. Powe does have a very good motor and is strong at the point of attack.
could be a 2nd round pick if he declares for the draft.
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 25, 2009 6:30 PM CST up reply actions
Or two
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 25, 2009 6:34 PM CST up reply actions
Back on the Berry wagon :)
hope it isn’t Boysenberry!
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 25, 2009 6:36 PM CST up reply actions
Nice research, there, Steve.
“Powe” is one letter away from “Power.” That Taylor kid looks like he might be an honest-to-goodness 330-pounder when he slims down. Any links on Powe?
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Raider post
Jerrell Powe
6-2 330lbs. Ole Miss
Nose Tackle
2009: 30 Tackles, 11 Tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 interception
don’t know if many of you guys know of him, but he was a highly recruited high school prospect that basically ate his way out of shape after going to Ole Miss. he shed a bunch of weight and has been an absolute force this season. he’s got prototypical NT size and strength, plays with great leverage and has short area quickness and burst. i’ve heard him compared to BJ Raji by some draftniks, but IMO is not on Raji’s level when it comes to athleticism. Powe does have a very good motor and is strong at the point of attack.
could be a 2nd round pick if he declares for the draft.
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 25, 2009 8:27 PM CST up reply actions
Ah redundent
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 25, 2009 8:31 PM CST up reply actions
Ah the SEC
it ain’t about scholastics
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 25, 2009 8:32 PM CST up reply actions
Heh.
Might deserve a 3rd round look. Could be very good value. Definitely adds to the options. They’re saying he’s the #3 prospect at the position in 2010. Projects at #96. Somebody to take a crack at in the 4th as a project player, for sure.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Did not realize he was that young
Would love him in the 4th 3rd maybe not as much. If we can some how make some trades for say an extra 3rd and 4th and still get ILB and Rolle along with Powe just think what this could be like.
1st Berry S
2nd Iupati/ Gilyard or Tate OG/WR
2nd Walton OC
3rd Powe NT
3rd Johnson ILB
4th Rolle S
4th BPA at position of need.
Would absolutly love to trade down right infront of SD then take the player they wanted
Like I was bubbling at the mouth a few years ago and then they pop up on the screen and tell me SD trades with I can’t remember who but the following line I remember clearly SD selects Antonio Cromartie CB from Fl St. He was the one player I was banking on and I would also like to get Clevland back although I might be glad we did not get Brady Quinn, At the time it really upset me that he was gone.
But the trade-down is exactly what you want when you need so many pieces in so many position groups.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
I'll never (rarely) say this anywhere else, but...
I can see KC going after a Ferrari LB if they have to wait until #5 and can’t trade down. Not sure about McClain, because he’s playing behind Terrence Cody, and it’s SO easy to get the cart before the horse on LB/RB.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Are you there Brandon?
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 25, 2009 4:20 PM CST up reply actions
Spikes?
I’m having trouble finding much up-to-date about him, and I haven’t watched him to see if he’s all that this season.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Not the same player this year gives me ? about him.
Would rather not go that route. I don’t want a OT so I have to say WR or TRADE DOWN if Berry is not there. Take Bryant or TRADE DOWN TRADE DOWN TRADE DOWN.
Cleveland and Tampa both won today
So we are now in position to draft #3 overall. The highest pick we can have now is #6 overall, if we win next week,
Here’s hoping we can trade down.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
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