Chiefs Draft Position 2010
by Sam D on Dec 21, 2009 3:04 PM CST
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PrintFrom what I have read, a tie between two teams with the same record comes down to strength of schedule. Currently, there are only two teams with a 3-11 record (which you probably already knew), the Chiefs and the Browns. It doesn't matter that they beat us head-to-head for draft picking order, so we look at strength of schedule. Through week 15, here are both teams opponents, records, and total wins for each teams opponents.
CHIEFS
Ravens 8-6
Raiders 5-9
Eagles 10-4
Giants 7-6
Cowboys 9-5
Redskins 4-9
Chargers 11-3
Jags 7-7
Raiders 5-9
Steelers 7-7
Chargers 11-3
Broncos 8-6
Bills 5-9
Browns 3-11
TOTAL 100
BROWNS
Vikings 11-3
Broncos 8-6
Ravens 8-6
Bengals 9-5
Bills 5-9
Steelers 7-7
Packers 9-5
Bears 5-9
Ravens 8-6
Lions 2-12
Bengals 9-5
Chargers 11-3
Steelers 7-7
Chiefs 3-11
TOTAL 102
The Redskins and Giants are teams on the schedule that play tonight, so are not updated through week 15. But since we, and not the Browns, played both teams, that adds one win to the Chiefs opponent's column. So, through Monday night of week 15, we are looking at a total for the Chiefs of 101 wins, and a total for the Browns of 102, giving the Chiefs a current weaker SOS. This is all purely food for thought, and can of course change if either us or the Browns win another game. This obviously changes when teams on your schedule win or lose games as well, which is bound to happen (duh). So maybe it's a little too early to even look at these numbers. Also, keep in mind that a win for a divisional foe from our division counts against us twice, while it only counts against the Browns once, and vice versa for their division (since you play the teams in your division twice).
Basically, for us to draft higher than Cleveland, we have to hope that the Raiders lose to them (giving us a better opponent's record against them in case we win a game (throwing out the Redskins because I don't feel like doing that much work for a 3-way tie at 4-12)) or we go winless in our last two, securing the fourth pick.
In the likely event that we are tied at 3-13, heading into the end of the season, we are unfortunately playing teams with better records than the Browns (we have the Bengals and Broncos, they have the Raiders and Jaguars) which adds more to our total win column. It's pretty unlikely that the 4 non-common opponents win out for the Browns as these teams are the Lions, Bears, Packers, and Vikings (adding a total of 4 wins to their column if this does happen) and our 4 non-common opponents lose out, these four being the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Redskins (not affecting our column at all if they do lose out).
All of this calculating accounts for the fact that when two teams are tied, first pick would go to the team with a WEAKER strength of schedule; that is, a team whose opponents had less wins collectively than the other team. The logic here is that a team with a weaker SOS that STILL couldn't win more games than the team they are tied with are a weaker team. Of course, this only counts in round one, as picks cycle between teams with a tied record after that.
All that being said, I'm projecting both the Chiefs and Browns to stay tied at 3-13, and with us facing stronger opponents at the end of the season than the Browns and having similar stability in both divisions, along with a nearly tied opponents win column through week 15, the Browns will sadly be picking above us come April 2010.
So fans, with the fifth pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select...?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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So fans, with the fifth pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select...
…one of the following:
Ndamukong Suh
Russell Okung
Gerald McCoy
Eric Berry
Rolando McClain
by burntorangehorn on Dec 21, 2009 3:09 PM CST reply actions
Best available of these five?
I wouldn’t argue with any of those. But throw out your least favorite, and Suh, because Suh will be taken before us, as well as a quarterback.
Suh's my least favorite?
Hmm. I guess, but not really. I think he’s great. Pending further information, I’d be thrilled with anyy one of those guys. But I do agree that a QB could very likely be taken ahead of KC’s pick, meaning that at least two of these guys could be available at #5.
by burntorangehorn on Dec 21, 2009 3:30 PM CST up reply actions
No, I meant that
Suh won’t be around when we pick.
Probably right
However, the post-season workouts can have strange, strange results.
by burntorangehorn on Dec 21, 2009 3:35 PM CST up reply actions
true,
aaron curry dropped to the fourth pick last year. but with the bucs already having a qb, i think them or the rams pick up ndamokung
the rams are stupid
if they don’t pick the top QB available….Bulger is terrible and always hurt, and they have nothing else
The Rams are stupid if they throw QB at their problems.
Bulger was playing better than Kurt Warner not long ago, the reason being he was slightly better in a shitty situation (and he cost less). They need to make it possible for a good QB to survive, first.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
thats where 2nd and 3rd round and FA
comes into play. Pick a good QB with #1, then use some other picks on the OL…and FA
they have actually invested a LOT in their OL
Jason Smith and Jason Brown are among the highest paid and most highly touted guys at Center and Offensive Tackle
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
* Stats are for losers
I think we take whoever is left out of that bunch when we pick
Minus McCoy (not big enough to play NT).
I would also consider adding Dez Bryant to that list.
Not all of them will be available at our pick, but at least one of them will be.
Man this Draft is deep.
McCoy has the frame
And he should have no issue putting on a dozen.
by burntorangehorn on Dec 21, 2009 6:54 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 21, 2009 7:37 PM CST up reply actions
Looking at the Jackson pick
I am expecting Cody to be our pick even though I would put Berry or Mays first if I had the choice. I just see Pioli going for the sure NT and not risking a ? ant the position. That is what he did with Jackson last year he took the sure build 3/4 DE, and we all agree we need NT as #1 need even if we bring in one through FA we still need 2 NT to be honest.
So I expect Cody, would pick Mays mysel but really think if McClain is available he would be the best pick to replace Williams and let us shop Williams to fill another hole on the roster.
I would really like the look of McClain and DJ in the middle.
DJ probably won't be around next year
I’d have no problem drafting McClain based on what I’ve heard of him. It would be interesting actually if we could get McClain and Spikes, along with a safety like Nate Allen, Kam Chancellor, Stuckey etc… It would definitely take care of the speed problems on D.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
read a blog yesterday that really shed some light on the DJ situation
Also looking at the fact the DJ is our 3rd downbacker I think this coaching staff has long term plans for him. He also has never made it through a year without injuries and has been healthy this year. Givin this offseason and the fact that he will be RFA and someone will have to give us picks for him I do not see DJ going anywhere this off season.
Actually DJ missed significant time offseason and in-season due to various nicks.
I’m sure his problems staying healthy and on the field will factor into any offers the Chiefs are willing to make him.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Honestly
I’m right there with you. Reach or not, this smells like a Pioli pick
Braccae illae virides cum subucula rosea et tunica Caledonia-quam elenganter concinnatur!
Yep
I would go Williams from Tennessee though.
And at least 10 AP members Burn their Tv’s :(
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 23, 2009 5:03 PM CST up reply actions
Good point, stagdsp.
Glad we didn’t take either of the Smith’s last draft. But I don’t think STL is finished fixing their OL.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
We still have Cincy and Denver 17 combined wins
Cleveland has Oak and Jax. 12 combined wins.
So we should actually pass Cleveland in SOS and pick higher than them. Too soon to project for sure tho.
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KCSatchmo on Dec 21, 2009 3:20 PM CST reply actions
i'm pretty sure this is wrong
the team with the lowest strength of schedule wins the tie breaker….essentially saying the team with the easier schedule still lost the same amount of games so they are worse. So right now we have the 4th pick, and it is alos shown on NFL.com that we are 4th worst with the browns ahead of us.
Currently we have a weaker SOS by one game
But I’m projecting us to end with a stronger SOS, which warrants a lower pick
also
like you said we play denver and if we lose it counts as 2 opponents wins. So if we lose out it adds 3 wins to our opponents total
why would a weaker SOS get the higher pick
looking this up…
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KCSatchmo on Dec 21, 2009 3:29 PM CST up reply actions
because weaker SOS with the same amount of losses
means that the team is essentially worse and warrants a higher pick
You're right...just looked it up
Ass backwards imo. We punish you with a tougher schedule then punish you again by making you draft lower. Total BS
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KCSatchmo on Dec 21, 2009 3:34 PM CST up reply actions
well essentially
its saying you had a tougher schedule so you are better than the team who had a weaker schedule and still lost the same amt of games.
I understand the logic
I just don’t agree with it. It makes no sense to say that because team A has a SOS with 1 fewer combined win on it and therefore they are actually worse than team B. Especially in this situation where team A defeated team B. It’s a silly tiebreaker. The team with teh tougher schedule had a disadvantage and should be rewarded with a higher pick.
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KCSatchmo on Dec 21, 2009 3:41 PM CST up reply actions
My opinion
I think that head-to-head SHOULD still matter. The Browns proved in an actual game that they are better…who cares about strength of schedule? They played each other lol. The NFL is really trying to overthink things.
If everyone worked as hard as me, I would be out of a job.
-Steve Nash
I agree
Why would a teams SOS matter if one already beat the other?
I was surprised to learn that SOS trumped head-to-head in the tie-break.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
It adds more than 3 wins
We get hit with every win that team has at the end of the season. Sorry, I guess I stated the facts incorrectly on that part. We’ll actually have a bigger hit for a Denver win, but divisional teams that we don’t play for the rest of the season will have a 2 game impact for one win
true statement...i meant 3 on top of their currnet totals
but yeah…we will probably pick 5th…unless tampa wins another game
Tampa plays atlanta in week 16
if they win we will also be tied with them….i’m too lazy to look up their opponents
And Detroit plays Chicago at home
I’d say that’s a winnable game for them.
Amazingly, Kansas City may end up with the 2nd overall pick.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
Thx for the knowledge.
I’m still hoping to see another win out of this ballclub, myself. Beating either of Cincy or Denver would be good for morale.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
And I think it very likely that Eric Berry is available at #4 or #5 or #6
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Berry and posting
First of all, I enjoy your posts…I am more of a lurker than poster, but I will post once in a while. I have been reading your stuff for a long time now, and I am pretty much on the same page overall as you are.
As for Berry, if we can win another game and still get Berry – that is the ideal scenario. We got to add him to our secondary (even if we have to trade up a spot or 2 IMHO).
If everyone worked as hard as me, I would be out of a job.
-Steve Nash
Berry
He’d be a difference maker.
But, I wouldn’t trade UP in this draft at all
I’m hoping they’ll trade down, personally.
Nate Allen might be a game changer at the pro level as well, and KC could get him in the 2nd, IF they can’t get Berry
* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season
* Stats are for losers
Nope, this draft is way to deep to trade up
Unless a team is absolutely in love with a QB, which I don’t see happening.
This years draft may be THE deepest of all time. Scary.
Not scary for the Chiefs
I would say Nirvana but people get all strange
Karma, man.
Sweet justice that we get a playmaker GM with 5% of the top 160 picks.
We might be able to make our 8 picks into 10 in toto (love that band) with a pickup in 2011 draft to boot
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 21, 2009 7:43 PM CST up reply actions
Toto?
You and I are of an age. Crusty bastard bachelor and touchie-feelie dad. What an odd pair.
I think Britt’s nailed the conventional thinking on this. Problem with conventional thinking is the irrationality of more than one GM.
I don’t see any sacrifices being made to move into the top 10 or much jockeying anywhere else in the 1st, because the draft is deep but not high. But as I’ve said in other threads, there is a very thin layer of cream at the very top of this draft that may trigger some erstwhile improbable trades.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
If we're on the same page, you can pick up the slack when I get my shit together and grow a LIFE!!!
At some point, I’ll be looking to go with one good weekly FanPost and a few football-geek conversations with the real football-geeks, when they surface. Many of us (myself included) make more comments than we have anything new to really add. And a few of us make far more FanPosts than they have anything new to really add. Chiming in for hours in the comments gets everything I want or need to say out there, so I don’t FanPost very often.
After a while on here, you get a sense of whose by-lines are most likely to draw a response, and whose by-lines are most likely to be of actual interest to a hard-core football geek. I also tend to cruise the by-lines of the latest comments, looking for a name I know who has real football knowledge, at least by my lights, whether I agree with them much, or not.
I see Berry as “Man-Love, Mills Style,” because I SO respect the Champ Bailey’s, Troy Polamalu’s and James Hasty’s of the league. If I’d had my way, Chris McAlister would be retired(ing) a Chief. Dominance of those 1-on-1s in space change the entire football landscape. While everyone else is scratching their heads and going back to the well after their latest LB bust, your LBs are plenty good in coverage, because they have so much less territory to worry about, and they’re not needed in coverage nearly as often.
This ALL being said, I think the Chiefs are in a situation where they would make significant gains just by adding significantly more SPEED to the secondary. This wouldn’t necessitate the selection of Eric Berry, but he just strikes me as something close to a young Charles Woodson. That was a pick that Alice made that I totally respected.
Blah blah blah.
Anyhoo, thx for the kind words. I’ve noticed your name, here and there, and feel much the same way, when you do chime in.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
I have a question for you mills
how many words a minute do you type? :)
Braccae illae virides cum subucula rosea et tunica Caledonia-quam elenganter concinnatur!
Heh. Upwards of 100, last I checked.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
I hate your posts
I hope your posts die in a fire.
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KCSatchmo on Dec 21, 2009 4:54 PM CST up reply actions
Me, too. So I usually just make comments, instead.
And you KNOW you LIKE it. Or is that just a screwdriver in your pocket?
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Even if the Browns draft before us I don't see them as being smart
enough to draft Berry. Not to mention, they are a team that is just as bad as us and investing your #3 pick and #3 money in a safety is just something that is not done. Especially with a genius like Mangini at the helm.
Seriously, how did that guy get like 20 picks last draft and draft absolutely no one of any significance (except for Alex Mack, that guy is good.)
by Your_Moms_Boyfriend on Dec 21, 2009 5:47 PM CST reply actions
that was a reach too:(
I bet you did kill Jesse tooo
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 21, 2009 7:44 PM CST up reply actions
I still have a dream that jacksonville wants to trade up for tebow
they need him not from a financial standpoint to put some butts in the seats out there
yeah
but nobody else is gonna take him with a 1st…so they are not gonna trade. Not sure why everyone wants to trade down now. we need the best player we can get with our first pick at this point.
Because trading down a few slots
would still give us a great talent, and may net an additional 2nd round pick. I’m all for it.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
It's that extra pick farther down that's so key.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
But while the possibility isn't all that far-fetched.
Neither is it something on which one bets one pension.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
BERRY
If they choose anyone else it would be a shame cause that would mean its either an offensive player, a reach, or another damn d-lineman. Our offense, although not good, is by far better than the defense and we cant afford to draft another d-lineman and have him flop his first year. Berry could come in right away and challenge for rookie of the year.
Berry could easily be considered a reach in the top 5
since Safety are almost never drafted that high, even in the top 10.
I’m sure he’ll grade out to be a fine player, but some of these draft sites calling him the next Ed Reed may be exaggerating a bit, even if they don’t know it.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
I think the terms "safety" and "cornerback" are rather malleable in the current context.
In a game where the rules and the body-type trends are the way they are, I think college safeties with great football IQ and elite measurables are worth more than the position group usually rates. In a league where descrying the defense’s true intentions by formation is a specialty of offensive minds, a defense that can deploy itself pre- and post-snap more like an amoeba, poses problems many defense can not.
Give me a Berry to work with, and I can put him at corner and Carr or Flowers at FS. And I can afford to keep Brown as a run-support and general help-mate to the front 7, with McGraw behind him, and not really sweat the team speed issue, any longer.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Berry could easily get RUN over in the pro game I'm not sure he is a lock.
I would not be surprised if we did trade down since I think the staff will target Cody, and I think the best safety comming out is Rolle anyway and he should be around for the 2nd to 3rd rd. I would love to see Berry and Rolle though that would be awesome. Then get Boo Robinson to play NT.
You think Rolle is better than Berry?
On what do you base such an opinion?
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
Yes
Lets draft Berry and maybe in a couple of years we can just let him go for nothing. So that he can go to another and play up to par.
Damn Caveman
hahaha. You bitter over there? Chiefs burn your man-love? I can feel your pain. There are so many former Chiefs out there looking like studs… sigh
Braccae illae virides cum subucula rosea et tunica Caledonia-quam elenganter concinnatur!
berry
Berry be rry berrybe rry. Berr ybe rryb erry berryb erry be rry berryberrybe rryb. Errybe rry b erry berry. Berry ber ry ber ry berryb err ybe rry. Berryberryberr yberry.
Also, Berry.
And I don't know about you but wern't we going
Curry cu rry c urry curr ry curry last year and got Jackson so I am just asuming we won’t get Berry that way if we do I can be surprised and happy and if we don’t I won’t be breaking my TV and throwing things around like I did last year.
I'm glad they didn't go with Curry.
Prediction for '09: Chiefs are looking like a .500 team, especially considering Denver's inattention to D-Line, Chokeland's disarray, and a San Diego team that looks like it's on the decline. With a weak schedule, Chiefs steal a few and win between 7 and 9 games, and if .500 or better, will contend for supremacy in a weak division.
With the fifth round in the pick....wait, this just in
Kansas City has traded it’s 1st round selection for all of the Dallas Cowboys draft picks plus an oil well, cages for stadium dancers, and a low hanging scoreboard.
"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."
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