Checking In on the Chiefs' Play Calling
by Chris Thorman on Dec 17, 2009 7:26 AM CST
in 2009 Kansas City Chiefs Campaign
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PrintGood morning AP readers. It's a cold, wet morning here in Austin, TX. I really wish I could stay in bed all day today. How nice does that sound?
To get your morning started off right, I've compiled some statistics on the Kansas City Chiefs play calling. While I was putting these together, I decided to figure out how the Chiefs' third downs break down to see if we can glean any more info about why the Chiefs are so darn bad at converting them.
This is what I found:
- 15% of the time the Chiefs face third down and 1-2 yards to go
- 23% of the time the Chiefs face third down and 3-5 yards to go
- 62% of the time the Chiefs face a third down of more than six yards to go
Yes, it's what we've been saying all along - The Chiefs third down woes stat on first and second down.
For some perspective, here are those same stats for the Indianapolis Colts, who lead the NFL in third down efficiency:
- 23% of the time the Colts face third down and 1-2 yards to go
- 30% of the time they face 3-5 yards to go
- 47% of the time they face more than 6 yards to go
Not huge percentage differences but that just goes to show you how razor thin the margin of error is in the NFL.
After the jump, I've compiled down by down play calling stats. Let us know what you think.
First Down (51% rush, 49% pass)
- 3.78 average yards per rush
- 4.92 average yards per passing play
- 5% of the time the Chiefs rush for a first down
- 11% of the time the Chiefs pass for a first down
Second Down (39% rush, 61% pass)
- 3.34 average yards per rush
- 4.2 average yards per passing play
- 11% of the time the Chiefs rush for a first down
- 12% of the time the Chiefs pass for a first down
Third Down (19% rush, 81% pass)
- 2.34 average yards per rush
- 5.34 average yards per passing play
- 5% of the time the Chiefs rush for a first down
- 20% of the time the Chiefs pass for a first down
Fourth Down (36% rush, 64% pass)
- 3.89 average yards per rush
- 4.88 average yards per passing play
- 20% of the time the Chiefs rush for a first down
- 28% of the time the Chiefs pass for a first down
Thoughts on the Chiefs play calling? What do you want to see them do more of?
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I'd like to see more WR screens
I feel like those have been our most successful plays, in addition to draws on third and long. (forgot how to do sarcasm font)
Pretty interesting
It’s nice to see that the 1st down mix is almost 50/50 between running and passing plays. Too bad the execution hasn’t been what it should. I’d be interested to see how the numbers break down excluding those early games where LJ was the starter.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
It actually looks pretty balanced to me.
I would say the reason for the heavier pass % on 2nd down is due to all of the negative plays on 1st down. If we execute better I’m sure that would lean much heavier toward the run.
“Coach, what do think about the execution of your team today?”
Coach: " I Think it’s a great idea"
Not only that, but my guess is that plays on second down that get called back on penalties don’t count in the play calling tally. So even negative plays on second down, at least due to penalties, have to do with passing so much on 2nd. Some weeks are better than others, but Haley is right in wanting to focus on eliminating the negative plays. It only takes one to kill a drive for this team.
If someone asks you if you want extra mayonnaise you have to say yes, cus that's part of it.
-Jared Allen
Haley loves the passing game....
They used the run very little in AZ…..Lowest rushing per game in the NFL last yr….I think he needs to play more to his teams strengths than HIS offensive scheme…No receivers and a shakey QB situation and he is still pass happy.
How do you figure?
on first down it’s 51% run 49% pass. He passes on 2nd & 3rd downs so often because the 1st down plays aren’t gaining enough yardage. I don’t think Haley is a pass-happy coach, I think he just called more passes in AZ because his RB was washed up & his receivers were All-Pro.
Predictions:
Kansas City will not win more than four games in 2009
Kansas City will have a new OC and DC in 2010
Kansas City will win at least seven games in 2010
They are still using pretty much the same offense in AZ this yr....
and its still pass happy….even with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower….pretty good tandem. When the strength of your team is rushing and the best player on offense and your biggest threat to take it to the house is your RB, your passing game should not be 2/3 of the calls made…just my opinion.
I agree with your logical but
You have to remember that many people didn’t even think Charles could be a primary back in the NFL. I will admit that I’ve been impressed with his ability to take a hit and keep running but you have to worried about injury every time he takes a big blow. He has been have shoulder problems and I’m sure Haley is worried about over using him. He is almost tied for most receptions on the team and he has more Kick return yards than anyone on the team. On top of that he is our primary back who has the most rushing yards and TDs on the team and he hasn’t been the starter for that long. I personally don’t want to see Charles get more than 20 touches a game. We need him for next year still.
by groundedchevy on Dec 17, 2009 9:56 AM CST up reply actions
I like the number of carries he is getting too...
But I would like to see them use Castille, or savage, more. They are doing the same thing with them as they were doing with Charles when LJ was still here. They just are not getting enough opportunities to get in a groove. Castille is a big bruiser. He can take a pounding and has shown some decent runs so far….but he needs more than 4-6 carries IMO….especially up the middle. Let Charles use his speed on the outside and Castille between the tackles..
I wouldn't mind
I was not a fan of seeing Castille ran to the outside on a play last week, but I do I agree he should be utilized a little more up the middle. Problem is if he never runs to the outside the defenses will always zone in on him. I think the reason you don’t seem him used more as a bruiser back is because we just aren’t in the short yardage situations enough on 2nd down or 3rd down for that matter.
by groundedchevy on Dec 17, 2009 11:47 AM CST up reply actions
A couple of questions:
Why are we so much better at rushing on 4th down than we are rushing on 3rd?
Does the yds/passing play take into account incomplete passes?
I would love to know the conversion rates for
our third down and 1 – 2 yards to go
and
our third down and 3 – 5 yards to go.
Why? Because those two third down distances are 40% of the third down situations and should be more managable than the more than six yards to go.
by BCRavenJHawkfan on Dec 17, 2009 9:14 AM CST reply actions
What do I want to see more of?
I’ve no issues with the balance of run/pass. I do have an issue with the kind of passes that are called supposedly to get Cassel into a rythmn.
Enough with the WR screens already. We have enough trouble blocking for our RBs, and now you’re asking our line to pull out wide to block for our very mediocre WRs that get zero YAC? Slants and curls are just as good to get a QB in rhythm and actually gets the offense going downfield and, I believe, would make us better on 1st and 2nd down.
I would also like to see more playaction on first down. Unless you’ve got an elite QB on your team, I’d be willing to bet that a lot of defenses come out expecting run on 1st down. JC has clearly shown that he is a threat on any down, on any point of the field, and at this point has to be contained. And defenses know this.
"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius, in contrary to Glenn Dorsey lining up in the 2-tech
It would also help if we had a surefire go to play when 3 yards are needed, crap even for just one yard.
I go back to this feature I watched on ESPN2 a few nights ago; Raiders vs Patriots, snow bowl, tuck rule, etc. The program was a mix of game footage with commentary and cut aways to interviews with players from that game. One of the things that came up for the Raiders was how they had developed several go to plays for certain situations that were virtually unstopable.
Do we have that? Hell no! We are gambling every time in those situations.
by BCRavenJHawkfan on Dec 17, 2009 1:13 PM CST up reply actions
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