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Chiefs Fantasy Outlook: Week Fifteen vs Cleveland Browns

Predictions from Week Fourteen can be found here The predicted numbers and the actual numbers for last week can be found at the end of this article.

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Its a sad state of affairs when you are looking forward to the Cleveland Browns coming to town, but there it is. This importance of this game for the Chiefs and their fans can't be stressed enough. There is a lot on the line.

This franchise needs to find some pride. Beating the Browns won't restore it. Losing to them will crush what little remains.

In my mind this game is also important for draft position. KC has been hanging out in the top 5 picks for two years now. There are great players there, but they are overpriced and kill you if you miss. Picking in the top five has the added onus of severely curtailing a team's ability to move around in the 1st round. The current draft system rewards teams 6 through 10 and punishes teams 1 through 5. If KC wants to see Pioli wheel and deal like he did in New England, they need to win this game.

The truth is that these two teams could switch uniforms and there's a good chance no one would notice. The defensive stats for the Chiefs and the Browns are almost identical.

There is only 13 total yards allowed separating the 30th ranked Kansas City defense from the 31st ranked Cleveland defense. The numbers across the defensive board are so close as to be sickening. But I'll let you decide:

  • Total yards allowed: KC 5008 yds, Cle 5021 yds (KC -13 yards)
  • Passing yards allowed: KC 3083 yds, Cle 3094 yds (KC -11 yards)
  • Passing yards per game: KC 237.2, Cle 238.0
  • Rush yards allowed: KC 1925 yds, Cle 1927 yds (KC -2yards)
  • Rush yards per game: KC 148.1, Cle 148.2

Scary.

The only difference between the Browns and the Chiefs is that KC seems to score more points (KC: 15.8 per game, CLE 12.2 per game) and the Browns sack the QB more often (CLE: 31 sacks, KC 19 sacks)

Yes this weekend is the clash of the titans at Arrowhead. Don't let that throw you off your fantasy game. Bad teams facing each other can make for monster fantasy days.The last time two bottom feeder teams met this season was when Cleveland went to Detroit. There was an offensive explosion from both teams.

Just look at it this way. How many times have you wished that your fantasy Chiefs got to face the Chiefs defense? This week, they do.

Three Chiefs and Sleeper after the break

Star-divide

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Jamaal Charles

Thank you Charles. Jamaal has single-handily revived interest in the Chiefs around the world of the NFL with his growing fantasy value. Charles has scored a TD in each of the last five games and tallied over 100 yards combined in three of those contests. Cleveland is allowing 148.2 yards per game. Charles owners should be licking their chops this week. Jamaal is a must start.

Jamaal Charles prediction: 103 yards, 3 receptions, 35 yards, 1 TD

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Dwayne Bowe

Welcome back Mr. Bowe, how we have missed you. The KC WR corp seemed to be a silver lining this year just four weeks ago. Three losses and 7,000 dropped passes later, it is a source of depression. D-Bowe's return adds a much need big-play dimension to the offense. Dwayne has his own dropped ball problems on routine catches, but he also has a knack for making the big play. And Cleveland's specialty is giving up the big play. Over the last five games they have given up 16 pass plays of 20 yards or longer. Six of these were for over 40 yards. That's a season of big plays for good teams. Look for Bowe to re-establish himself as the KC #1 WR this weekend.

Dwayne Bowe prediction: 7 catches, 94 yards, 1 TD

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Chris Chambers

How fast the worm can turn in the National Football League. A month ago Chiefs fans were hailing Chambers as the free agent coup of the year. Last week his name became a curse that explained all that is wrong with the Chiefs after dropping that 4th quarter pass. It only takes one good week to redeem yourself in the NFL and Chambers will have his opportunity this weekend. Chambers has shown that he can torch sub-par coverage but he struggles when he is the primary receiver. No one on the Chiefs squad will benefit more from Bowe returning to the lineup. The Browns are going to be forced to pay attention to Jamaal and Dwayne. If Cassel can deliver the ball on time (which is a new concern in KC) then Chambers will have the opportunity to scamper back into the fan base's good graces.

Chris Chamber prediction: 5 catches, 65 yards, 1 TD

***

KC Fantasy Sleeper

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Ryan Succop

Haley's 4th down play calling has been...interesting. I don't know whether to cheer it on or form a mob. I am sure that Ryan Succop's fantasy value has taken a huge hit because of it. To be fair, Haley week in and week out is taking a plastic spork to a machine gun fight. Points have been at a premium all year and field goals were probably not going to be enough in 95% of KC's matchups this year. Cleveland is different. This is the fourth  team with comprable talent  KC will face this season. Oakland, Buffalo and Washington being the other three. Hopefully Haley was paying attention in those games because it seems pretty simple to me. When Succop connects on two or more field goals the Chiefs win. When Ryan only kicks one FG, KC loses. Let the Ryan Succop for team MVP campaign begin now.

Ryan Succop prediction: 2 FG's, 3 EP's

 

Mushin's Week 14 Predictions:

-Jamaal Charles

Jamaal Charles Prediction: 98 yards, 1 TD, 5 receptions, 45 yards receiving

actual numbers: 143 yards, 1 TD, 7 receptions, 38 yards receiving

-Chris Chambers

Chris Chambers Prediction: 3 receptions, 52 yards

actual numbers: 4 receptions, 50 yards

-KC Defense/ST 

KC Defense/ST:  3 turnovers

actual numbers: 3 turnovers and a whole lot of garbage

-Lance Long

Lance Long Prediction: 4 receptions, 35 yards, 2 rushes, 25 yards, 1 TD

actual numbers: 2 receptions, -6 yards, 1 rush, -3 yards, 0 TD

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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This says it all...
How many times have you wished that your fantasy Chiefs got to face the Chiefs defense? This week, they do.

"The way this works is you string together some good games, some good practices and you get momentum and you gain confidence," linebacker Mike Vrabel said. "It can be a real positive for your team. It builds on itself."

by cpa913 on Dec 17, 2009 10:34 AM CST up reply actions  

I disagree Elway. Chiefs are chomping at the bit to score some points.

I honestly see us scoring early & maintaining a lead throughout the game.
I know it sounds crazy, after all it is the Chiefs. I just think the mind set of our players will be different this week. Less mistakes, better execution. The team really needs a big win & they are going to get it done on Sunday. Besides, with Bowe & Chambers together again, someone is going to be open. Lots of big plays for our offense, the defense has held it’s own, especially in the close games.

by ChiefsChance on Dec 17, 2009 10:19 AM CST reply actions  

I don't know if the Chiefs will get better execution on offense, but the Browns D sure as hell isn't executing on defense

10/19/09: The Chiefs are on their way to an 11-5 season...I think....
10/26/09: Okay, so it'll be 10-6, I can live with that...
11/9/09: So KC spots the league 7 games. 9-7 is respectable.
11/30/09: I'll consider 8-8 a success and move on

by mushin on Dec 17, 2009 11:41 AM CST up reply actions  

Has any two teams ever played this late in the year with that close of stats?

amazing.

Winning begins with Attitude - Haley and Pioli will be winners in KC!

I'll forever be a Chiefs fan! Only God himself could take that away from me, but when I get to my great reward, I'll rejoin two bigger fans, my Mom and Dad.

by Lanier63 on Dec 17, 2009 10:21 AM CST reply actions  

I've owned Charles

Since Ronnie Brown Got Hurt. but have yet to start him over lesean mccoy. This is round one of my playoff so Charles sure as hell better have a big day.

by callmesir on Dec 17, 2009 11:24 AM CST reply actions  

Leaving Charles on the bench last week had to hurt

10/19/09: The Chiefs are on their way to an 11-5 season...I think....
10/26/09: Okay, so it'll be 10-6, I can live with that...
11/9/09: So KC spots the league 7 games. 9-7 is respectable.
11/30/09: I'll consider 8-8 a success and move on

by mushin on Dec 17, 2009 11:41 AM CST up reply actions  

Also, Charles has outperformed McCoy since week 10 in every week but one

That one week was week 11, and they had virtually identical stats that week.

Nothing is ever certain in fantasy, but give me a RB that is the center of a bad offense against a horrible defense over a RB that is a secondary thought in a vertical offense any day.

10/19/09: The Chiefs are on their way to an 11-5 season...I think....
10/26/09: Okay, so it'll be 10-6, I can live with that...
11/9/09: So KC spots the league 7 games. 9-7 is respectable.
11/30/09: I'll consider 8-8 a success and move on

by mushin on Dec 17, 2009 11:49 AM CST up reply actions  

I keep starting him

thinking he’s basically the same type of player brian westbrook is…. and yes it has hurt to have him on the bench…

by callmesir on Dec 17, 2009 11:51 AM CST up reply actions  

McCoy is not a great fit for Philly

He was brought in to be a change of pace/3rd down back. Philly doesn’t run the ball enough to have him be effective, and he’s not a good enough receiver out of the backfield to take Westbrook’s place.

McCoy is comparable to Buckhalter. When he was in Philly he showed flashes, but never got enough touches in Andy Reid’s offense to be dependable in a fantasy format.

Until Reid starts running the ball, which should happen about the time that hell freezes over, McCoy is going to be boom or bust week in and week out.

10/19/09: The Chiefs are on their way to an 11-5 season...I think....
10/26/09: Okay, so it'll be 10-6, I can live with that...
11/9/09: So KC spots the league 7 games. 9-7 is respectable.
11/30/09: I'll consider 8-8 a success and move on

by mushin on Dec 17, 2009 12:30 PM CST up reply actions  

Cassel

Apparently the boffins on nfl.com have cassel as a fantasy sleeper this week

Blame my wife!
Waiting until August 2010

by sir eccles on Dec 17, 2009 12:03 PM CST reply actions  

That's more of a statement about Cleveland than Cassel

They’re saying something similar about Quinn over at CBS:

He (Quinn) has a chance to have another solid performance in Week 15 at Kansas City as the Chiefs have one of the five-worst pass defenses in the league. However, Quinn is not yet a dependable enough Fantasy option to be trusted outside of the deepest of formats.

The big difference is the quality of WR each team has. KC has Bowe, Chambers and Charles to make something happen. Quinn has Massaquoi…uhhh, Mossaquoi, oh and that Mossaquoi guy.

10/19/09: The Chiefs are on their way to an 11-5 season...I think....
10/26/09: Okay, so it'll be 10-6, I can live with that...
11/9/09: So KC spots the league 7 games. 9-7 is respectable.
11/30/09: I'll consider 8-8 a success and move on

by mushin on Dec 17, 2009 12:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Bowe...

15pts. in his first game in over a month?Hope so.I don’t think Fitz is going to do much this week,so Bowe is gonna get the start on my team.

by idahochieffan on Dec 19, 2009 7:25 PM CST reply actions  

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