Projecting Matt Cassel's 2009 Season Totals
by Chris Thorman on Dec 12, 2009 1:04 PM CST
in 2009 Kansas City Chiefs Campaign
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PrintWe've had plenty of healthy debate around here recently about whether or not Matt Cassel is the answer at quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs. The critics point to his bad games this season (Philadelphia, San Diego, Denver) and his supporters point to his good ones (Pittsburgh, Dallas, Jacksonville) for evidence.
What if we project out Cassel's stats for the rest of the season? What would his season totals look like?
That's exactly what I've done, after the jump.
We're 3/4ths of the way through the season. Here's what Cassel's stats are right now:
- 349 pass attempts
- 188 completions
- 1,982 passing yards
- 13 passing TDs
- 9 INTs
- 42 rushing attempts
- 164 rushing yards
And here's what they look like when we project them out for a 16-game season:
- 436 pass attempts
- 235 completions
- 2,478 passing yards
- 16 passing TDs
- 11 INTs
- 52 rushing attempts
- 205 rushing yards
For some perspective, Cassel's passing yards would be the lowest total for a 15-game starter since Bill Kenney's 1,922 passing yards in 1986. His 16 TDs would be the lowest total since 1998. 436 pass attempts would be the lowest total since 1992.
Cassel passed for 3,693 yards last in New England, throwing in 21 TDs and 11 INTs. If Cassel neared his projected total in passing yards this season, he will have been a 1/3rd less productive in KC than in New England.
Overall, this would be a rough season total for Cassel. Just goes to show how bad this offense really is.
Do these projected stats make you think any different of Cassel than you do now?
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Doesn't make me think less of him
Less of our offense more like it. We should’ve had Charles in the mix from the get go. He should’ve gotten a fair amount of carries and been active all season long. I wish D-Bo and Chambers were our two primary recievers all game long.
I don’t think it’s exactly fair to judge Cassel based off of this season alone. With some talent in New England he did great. Without any real talent in KC…he didn’t.
Some perspective from preseason
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
Wrong Steve Your Moms Boyfriend work
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 12, 2009 1:45 PM CST up reply actions
Ha... this made me click on the link to see what it was...
I thought it might be your mom’s boyfriend’s work!
LOL
Trent's first year stats
Ranked 26 out of 30 QBs
Comp – 296
Att – 523
Yrds – 3783
TD – 17
Int – 24
Sacked – 39 times
Cassel isn't Trent Green
Looks more like Derek Anderson, Scott Mitchell, or Erik Kramer
by mcclanahanman on Dec 12, 2009 2:55 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I wasn't saying that he was like Trent Green.
But since this article made reference to Cassel’s stats as they rank with former Chiefs QBs, I found it interesting to compair 2 QBs that came to the Chiefs and how they stacked up during their first year.
And you could say that Trent had an advantage since he wasn’t learning a new offense.
Cassel has been an average QB this year.
Those are average stats imo. They are not terrible nor are they great. I am on the pro-Cassel side for now…but if his stats look similar next year, he certainly might not be the answer.
"Gonna gallop all over the Chiefs. Cleat prints on the chests. Mud in the face masks." - 2.7* *Yes I know it was changed to 2.9 but f*ck the statisticians.
I will agree with you only if a real effort is made to improve the offense.
My conditions are that The OL is improved from Very-Poor/Poor to Good, a letigimate #1 WR is brought in, and a Thunder Back is brought in.
I've been rapping for about seveteen years okay? I don't write my stuff anymore I just kick it from my head you know what I'm sayin? I can do that. No disrespect but that's how I am.
i think that the team may have mostly asked him to be "average" this year
he has very little talent around him, is learning a new system, we are in total reconstruction mode and many of the players on the team wouldn’t be here if the new regime had had a complete offseason to evaluate and sign players; we’re building for the long-term, not just this year. Look how many times he’s asked to pass and how often they try to go deep; they are looking for him to be a game manager this year, not lose games, learn the system and not lose all of his confidence in the process. not to mention receiver/offense/quarterback continuity, or lack of.
Voted No...
I would obviously rather he have great numbers in these last 4 games and do better than the projection.
With that said though, doesn’t change my view that he is the best option for the Chiefs at this current time and for the next couple years at least.
Things of importance to me:
1)God
2)Family
3)Chiefs
4)Marine Corps
Yeah...
he didn’t have a running game in the first half of the season. It made our offense more inept than it already was and predictable as hell. I bet if you look at yards after the catch w/ our wideouts it would be bottom 5 in the league. The guy has proven he can be an effective QB in this league w/ talent around him and he will prove it again once we get the right pieces. The guy has talent. His problems right now are rhythm related.
I wish there was a way to figure in all the drops and get a ballpark idea of what his stats might be with more competent receivers.
I’ve said this before, but I really admire the way Cassel has handled himself. He’s gotten the shit beaten out him. He had virtually no running game with LJ. His line could neither run or pass block. He was usually running for his life in the pocket, even when coming out of the shotgun. His receivers drop passes right and left. The level of frustration must be huge for him.
Toby is in HR, which technically means he works for corporate, so he's really not a part of our family. Also, he's divorced, so he's really not a part of his family.
Of those on the leader board...
KC has four receivers. All are the primary targets of Cassel from throughout the season. From these players alone, the count is 28 drops. He needs reliable weapons…
I've been rapping for about seveteen years okay? I don't write my stuff anymore I just kick it from my head you know what I'm sayin? I can do that. No disrespect but that's how I am.
I've been saying it all season
and i’m not going to stop saying it now, Cassel was good last year because he was a product of the system. He is overrated and we overpayed for him. He hasn’t done anything this year he was expected to do. We need to draft a good qb this year and let him learn most of next season and let him be the qb of the future. Not Cassel! IMHO cassel needs to be benched for the remainder of the season, or until croyle gets hurt, whichever comes first. we’ve allready sealed our fate as doing nothing this season, let Brody out there to see if he can bring a lil more to this offense tan cassel has. Brody don’t stand there all day waiting to throw the ball like cassel does, brody has a much stronger arm and can throw the ball a whole lot deeper than cassel, he also might not be very durable but he isn’t affraid to take a hit either. who know maybe he is really durable he just had some bad luck with injuries in the beginning? lol idk, i still say we should let brody finish this season out.
This "just a system quarterback" jabbering is nonsense.
And you hear it all over the place among the “experts” in the sports media. Successful coaches design systems and schemes which best play to the strengths and abilities of their players. Bill Walsh designed the West Coast Offense around the things Joe Montana did well. Does that mean Montana was just a “system QB”? No matter what sort of system a QB plays in, they still have to be able to run it and (most importantly) they still have to be able to make the reads and make the throws.
Toby is in HR, which technically means he works for corporate, so he's really not a part of our family. Also, he's divorced, so he's really not a part of his family.
Well said Slappy
One of my pet peeves in sports writing is the whole system QB argument. What QB isn’t in a system?
+1
Drew Brees has a pretty good system going on! ;-)
by LTownChiefsFan on Dec 12, 2009 3:02 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
i havent been able to see all the games...
but to me, it seems like we rnt using a system cassel does well in. seems like it would be smart to use the system he did well in instead of using a system he plays poorly in.
im not a guy who breaks down tape but it would be interesting if some of the guys at AP who like doing that could do a post on the difference between Arizona’s O last year and the Pat’s O last year and how they compare to us this year. for me not being able to get most of the games out here in colorado, it would be nice to have a breakdown of the whole thing.
by MountainManMike on Dec 12, 2009 6:15 PM CST up reply actions
comments like these make me scratch my head
He hasn’t done anything this year he was expected to do
what was expected to do that apparently he has done none of? i don’t recall anyone predicting a pro bowl year from him nor do i recall anyone expecting big numbers and lots of wins this year. as for the system quarterback accusation, every single quarterback is a system quarterback. favre, montana, manning, brady, aikman, etc…all played the same system their entire career thus making them system quarterbacks too. (you still have to execute the system, though) as for paying him 63 million for six years puts him right in the middle of what starting qb’s are making in the nfl today so to say we overpaid for him isn’t an educated statement. why are you so willing to go with croyle when the guy has lost ALL of his 12 starts? i guess i don’t get it
The only players I hurt with my words are the ones who have an inflated opinion of their ability. I can't worry about that.
Bill Parcells
Knowledge is confidence. And confidence lets you play fast.
Bill Parcells
That yard total would be about
1 Cassel game away from the yards Thigpen threw in 11 starts last season. Damn shame!
Predictions for 2009:
The Chiefs will regret cutting LJ
Bowe's numbers regress due to lack of decent QB play.
The D gets better in the second half but still is plagued by big plays
Cassel looks more like the guy Pioli almost cut in the '08 preseason instead of the franchise QB he hoped he would be when he traded him for
Chiefs 3-13
Thigpen
also had Bowe for 16 games AND Gonzo, playing in a gimmicky offense.
I’m tired of this BS about Cassel not producing. Okay, so his % is down (but would be about average without all these drops) but his TD to INT ratio is pretty good. The OL IS playing a little better now than what they were, but WR’s are still having trouble getting open and when they do get open they drop the damn ball.
I’m not trying to say Cassel has been flawless. He tends to hold the ball longer than he should. What I like about him is that he looks around. He’s not locking in on 1 guy. SOMETIMES he does, but usually not.
We’ve seen what Cassel can do with a supporting cast around him. So lets build one around him. Fix the OL, get another receiver whos not going to be dropping the ball (Boldin/Breastin?). I’m tired of hearing all this shit on Cassel. I mean..his numbers are identical to Joe Flacco’s rookie numbers. Cassel has 0 help. He doesnt have an OL to consistantly protect him, he doesnt have a strong rushing attack to help him, he doesnt have WR’s who consistantly catch the ball.
by Petey14 on Dec 12, 2009 5:08 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
those kinda look like thigpen's stats last year
the difference though is thiggy had d-bowe and gonzalez to throw to and larry johnson was averaging 4.5 ypc.
cassel had d-bowe half the time, no gonzalez, and larry johnson was averaging 2.7 ypc. hate to say it, but thigpen actually had a better team around him last year than cassel has now.
WE NEED AN OL to help cassel next year
1st round ol
2nd round rb or wr
3rd round dt or ss
4th round cb or ol
5th round ol or lb
The o-line...
..is better now than it was for Thigpen.Thats just fact. Any excuse you make for Cassel you could’ve made for him as well and saved alot of money.The o-line is starting to play well actually and Cassel is getting worse.
I give Cassel the same pass Haley gets this year
For the same reason.
I think Haley has mismanaged a lot of things because of his inexperience and trying to take too much on. You can’t convince me a rookie head coach that has taken on both the Offensive Coordinator role and QB Coach role (even though he’s never been a QB coach before???) is not part of the reason this team, this offense and this QB is having problems.
If Haley gets a seperate OC next year that can manage those duties, I think we will see the offense and Cassels play do better.
One concern I do have with Cassel is the possibility that he has become shell shocked. He’s been hit so many times and hit so hard, I worry it might have ruined him. You can see even in these more recent games where his protection has been better that he gets happy feet and presses sooner than he needs to.
If the bad protection earlier in the year have put a bug in Cassels head, he might never be the same guy again.
My opinion may surprise some
because I’ve berated Cassel several times this season, but I am not disappointed with him or these stats. I think half of the interceptions he’s thrown weren’t even his fault. Considering how weak the offensive line and receiving corps were combined with how awful of a running back we used to have, I think Cassel has done as well as he could. I still have hope for Matt. I think his accuracy is better than most people realize, and he’s got a good arm. My problem with Matt is still that he’s just not going to be worth the money that we’ve now paid him. Why? Those kinds of dollars are for upper echelon quarterbacks who combine ability with football intelligence. Guys like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady are all where they are because they have this combination. These players are worth what they make, because they can single handedly take their teams to new heights and take their teams farther than if they had even above average quarterbacks. I believe that if you put Matt Cassel with any of these other quarterbacks teams, he would be very successful, but I don’t think those teams would be as successful as they have been or will be. These guys read defenses so well, change plays at the line of scrimmage, and direct traffic so well. Cassel can’t even touch those guys in that area. I don’t think I’ve seen Matt call more than 5 audibles all year long. I don’t think he’s pointed out coverage more than 5 times all year long. And I don’t think I’ve seen him adjust protection once all season. Now, you could argue that Haley doesn’t allow Cassel to audible or adjust his plays, but I’d argue that it’s only because Haley knows that this just isn’t Matt’s strong suit. I’m a glad to have Matt Cassel as a Kansas City Chief? Yes. Will Matt Cassel be successful as the quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs? Yes. Will Matt Cassel be a part of a Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl team someday? I think so. Will he be the driving force behind that push like Drew, Peyton, or Tom? No, he will not. And that’s ok, but not for 63 million.
You might be amazed with the money that Peyton and the others will get
with their next contract. One of them is up for a contract soon Brady I think.
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 12, 2009 3:45 PM CST up reply actions
Some more data
Brady Will be up for renogiatation in 2010. currently 6 yr 60 million.
Got a lot more than Cassel
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09. Almost there :)
And Succop will be the Key in two of them. Skins & Raiders! Pittsburgh Sweet!
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
by Steve_Chiefs on Dec 12, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions
And I'm still not sure
he deserved it. He’s not on the same page with Brady and them on the football IQ either, but he’s got more than Cassel.
Not true.
“Those kinds of dollars are for upper echelon quarterbacks who combine ability with football intelligence.”
Cassels contract is in the middle. His contract is average for QB’s. Jamarcus Russell has a bigger contract than Cassel does (61m total which is less than Cassels 63, but 32 guaranteed compared to Cassels 28)
Is Jamarcus a top paid QB? Didnt think so.
To put contracts in perspective, Peyton is getting 99.2 total, 34.5 guaranteed. And its likely that he’ll get most of that 99 million.
If we’re going to talk about ridiculous contracts, why dont we talk about Eli Mannings ridiculous 97.5, 35 guaranteed when hes never even been a top rated QB. Matt Cassel had better numbers that Manning did last year, but manning got paid MUCH more. I think the contract is fine.
by Petey14 on Dec 12, 2009 5:18 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Manning is a Super Bowl winner and he plays in a large market who puts more pressure on their QBs than Cassel will ever know
I would expect nothing less regarding the Eli Manning contract.
by Chiefsfan1970 on Dec 12, 2009 8:57 PM CST up reply actions
Lol
you take 1 detail out of my post and discredit the rest.
What do you mean you’d expect nothing less out of Eli’s contract? What, because you win a superbowl you should get a MASSIVE contract like that, no matter the production you’ve put up? I call BS.
Eli is no top 5 QB and hes making more money than any other QB in the league. Whoopty doo he won a superbowl! Along with the help of Burress, Jacobs and a stacked defense.
My whole point was that there are WORSE QB’s than Cassel making more money (Russell). Cassel has an AVERAGE contract for QB’s in the NFL. Everybody talks about 63 million..63 million for a QB is NOT that big of a contract and he’s not even going to see the full 63 million.
If you really want to compare
our GM with Al Davis, go ahead. But with that perspective, trying to convince me you have more hope for our team than I do makes what you just said even more absurd.
I have no idea what in the world you are talking about.
I didnt “compare” Davis and Pioli. I never even mentioned either of their names. Just because I’m talking about the contracts their QB’s got doesnt mean I’m “comparing” the owners. Dont put those words in my mouth. Davis is the worst Owner in the league and NEEDS to hire a GM to make the football decisions before he loses his team completely.
My point was that Jamarcus Russel has a larger contract than Cassel, and Jamarcus’s contract IS NOT a large contract for QB’s in the NFL. So if Jamarcus has a middle of the pack contract, and his is bigger than Cassels, then why is everybody complaining about Cassel’s contract?
It's not a fair question
Am I satisfied with Cassels projected numbers, no, not even close. More improtant, do I blame Cassel? No. Removing the OC, constant change on the OL, poor play early by LT (thankfully he is gone), rotating the receiver corp and the trade of TG have all signalled what would be a rough year for a team with 6 wins in 2 years. Haley and Cassel will both be back next year, and be more experienced and have a better cast of supporting characters.
If it looks this bad next December we should be looking for change.
Cassel is just average
He will never be the guy to lead the Chiefs to a super bowl win or a dynasty. The best we can hope for out of him is Kerry collins,Neil O’donnel,or Derek Anderson.He’s just not a (and never will be)a top shelf starter in this league.
Cassel will be very good next year
If he has the chemistry with the OLs, WRs and RBs, He will surprise many of us. Remember guys, this is his first year leading this team. The chemistry is not bulit overnight. Once he is given 4 more games plus practice times he and teams have, he will be our QB of the present and future. No worry…
by 72chiefs on Dec 13, 2009 5:01 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
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