Predictions from Week Twelve can be found here. The predicted numbers and the actual numbers for last week can be found at the end of this article.
What a debacle. The fantasy Chiefs have been playing with fire for the last few weeks, and last week they got burned. Chris Chambers was non-existent in the game. WR's dropped balls all over the place. Charles got banged up and dropped the ball. What the frito my friends. What the frito.
Buffalo's record of 4-8 would seem to indicate that the Chiefs have a favorable fantasy matchup this week. But, a review of Buffalo's stats show that they have a surprisingly good pass defense. The Bills come in with the number 4 ranked pass defense in the NFL. In week 5 they held the hapless Browns to 23 yards total passing. I don't care if it was the Browns, that's ridiculous.
But as the Bills taketh, so they giveth away.
The Buffalo rush defense is ranked dead last in the league giving up an average of 172.1 yards per game. They have shown themselves to be susceptible to the big runs. The Jets last week had 4 rushers with at least one rush over 15 yards. Charles should be licking his chops.
From a fantasy perspective, KC needs someone to step it up in the run game and help Charles to carry the load. I don't see anyone on the bench that can provide that jab to Jamaal's uppercut. I hope you see something I don't. Here's to hoping.
3 Chiefs and a Sleeper after the break.
As stated earlier, Charles break away ability and the Bills vulnerability to it make Jamaal a must play this week. Buffalo has has twice allowed rushers to average 9 yards per carry this year (Thomas Jones; 9.5 ypc, Pierre Thomas; 9.0 ypc) and have only held 3 leading rushers to under 4 yards per carry (Derrick Ward; 2.6 ypc, Maruice Jones-Drew; 2.6 ypc, Jamal Lewis, 3.8 ypc ) Charles will not get a better matchup all year.
Jamaal Charles Prediction: 98 yards, 1 TD, 5 receptions, 45 yards receiving
Denver showed the league that if you shut down Chris Chambers, you shut down the Chiefs passing game. Every other WR must have coated their hands with Slip-em last week. The Bills secondary is going to key on Chambers. Woe to the fantasy team that must rely on him. Dreyton Florence and Terrence McGee are going to force another KC WR step up. I would stay away from Chris this week if you can.
Chris Chambers Prediction: 3 receptions, 52 yards
The Buffalo offense is built around the run and play action passing. Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson pound it inside and the duo of Terrel Owens and Lee Evans burn teams deep. Those WR have to scare Chiefs fans. I still have nightmares about what TO did to KC a few years ago when Philly came to town. Fantasy fantatics shouldn't expect KC to be able to shut the Bills down. What fantasy players should look for is turnovers. Over the last 5 games Buffalo has averaged 3 fumbles and/or interceptions per game. Turnovers is the only stat that the KC D has managed to excel in this year. If you play the KC D, I fear for you sanity, but you should have some hope.
Long has disappeared from the Fantasy landscape. This week is intriguing though. Not because I expect Long to blow up in the recieving department, but because Buffalo has been letting WR's break off big runs. Teams have been running reverses and WR screeens agains the Bills with great results. Last week Brad Smith and David Clowney both broke off runs of more than ten yards. With the KC passing game most likely being shut down, Haley and company is going to have to find ways to rush the ball. Long's shiftiness and speed could be the answer.
Lance Long Prediction: 4 receptions, 35 yards, 2 rushes, 25 yards, 1 TD
Mushin's Week 12 Predictions:
Chris Chambers prediction: 6 catches, 87 yards, 1 TD
actual numbers: 2 catches, 11 yards, 0 TD
Jamaal Charles Prediction: 94 yards rushing, 5 receptions, 48 yards receiving, 1 TD
actual numbers: : 18 yards rushing, 1 receptions, 3 yards receiving, 1 TD
Matt Cassel Prediction: 243 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int
actual numbers: 84 yards, 0 TD, 2 Int
Kolby Smith Prediction: 10 carries, 52 yards, 1 TD
actual numbers:Trip to IR