Three Things to Expect from the Chiefs v. Steelers This Weekend
by Chris Thorman on Nov 20, 2009 7:35 AM CST
in 2009 Kansas City Chiefs Campaign
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PrintFootball returns to Arrowhead Stadium this weekend as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
In case you didn't know, the Steelers are the defending Super Bowl Champions and have a pretty good defense. And a good quarterback.
It's going to be a tough one for the Chiefs this weekend. I've put together three random things I expect to happen this weekend.
Unfortunately, one of those random things is not a Chiefs win. Don't worry - I'm still going to pick the Chiefs to win in my game day prediction. But it's Friday and objectivity rules today. This Steelers team is a huge challenge for the Chiefs
Talking expectations, after the jump.
Increased load for RB Kolby Smith
I know people are saying Jamaal Charles should be getting the majority of the carries for the Chiefs but I don't see that happening. I think Charles' increased load last weekend was a placeholder tactic until Kolby Smith is up to speed.
RB Jamaal Charles had 18 carries last weekend - tied for his career high in rushing attempts. Charles had 18 carries against Tampa Bay last season but no more than 7 carries in any other game.
My point? Jamaal Charles is not ready to be an every down back and probably never will be. Fumbles anyone?
That's why I think we'll see RB Kolby Smith carry the ball more than the 9 times he did last week.
The Pittsburgh offense won't be scary (but they'll be pretty good)
The Steelers' offense is pretty middle of the road - 15th in points; 9th in yards; 8th in passing yards; 17th in rushing yards.
They're bolstered by a top notch defense that ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed per game and first against the run. This strong running defense is also a reason I think we'll see Kolby Smith more.
We're all pretty familiar with the Steelers style of play - less than flashy offense; grinding defense. And I think that's the exact combination we'll see this weekend.
QB Ben Roethlisberger won't screw up this week
Last weekend, here's what Ben Roethlisberger had to say about his team's loss to the Bengals:
"You know what? I had a bad day," Roethlisberger said Thursday, the first time he has talked to reporters since the game. "Everyone in here's had a bad day. ... I flat out had a bad day, and it's going to happen sometimes. It's just unfortunate that when the quarterback has a bad game, it affects the whole offense. That's why you can't afford to have too many bad games."
I'm secretly a huge Big Ben fan because I think he's arguably the first quarterback I'd pick up if I was building a team. It's not in his nature to have two bad games in a row, especially against an inferior team like the Chiefs.
Defensive match ups and all other analysis aside, I have a gut feeling that Roethlisberger will have a big day against the Chiefs. Like I said above, I don't think the Steeler offense is going to put up 40 points. But I do think we'll see a solid quarterbacking day from the Steelers' QB - perhaps a 65+ completion percentage, 250+ yards and a passing TD.
***
Those are three of my expectations for this weekend. What are some of yours?
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I don't understand this Jamaal Charles BS
about him not being an every down back? Why the hell not? The guy is a little bit smaller he isn’t made of glass.
The fumble thing is a myth even i used to believe. Charles has fumbled THREE times in 2 years. From what I can see of his stats at Texas he fumbled ZERO times.
So we are worried about a guy who had fumbled the ball 3 times in 24 games? I understand he may have some protection issues but he also gives us the best chance to win football games.
I don’t think any RB should get 30 carries a game because I think you run them down but Charles should be getting at least 20-24 carries every game. The dude averages over 5 yards a carry and he is the only back on our team with the talent to shed a couple of tackles in the backfield and get positive yards.
I like Haley and I defend him a lot but if Charles starts only getting 6-8 carries a game and we start running Smith up the middle for 2 yards 20 times a game I will lead an angry mob to Arrowhead myself.
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Barry Sanders was 5-8 and 203.
Charles is 5’11 and 199. Sanders averaged 20 carries a game over his career.
Charles needs to get the rock 20 times a game for the rest of the season. The guy is averaging 5.4 yards per carry for kripes sake.
Please help send my girlfriend to Broadway! Visit http://magonbroadway.blogspot.com/
by Patrick Allen on Nov 20, 2009 7:59 AM CST up reply actions
Those stats would seem to indicate
that 20+ carries = 100+ yards =)
Ryan Succop will be the kicker for the AFC in the 2011 Pro Bowl
Chris Johnson of the Titans
the best fantasy back in the league – 5’11’’ 200. He’s an every down back for them.
This isn't a "kum-bye-yah" campfire! THIS IS FOOTBALL!
He is averaging 18.8 yards a game
though he would probably have a little more than that if the Titans hadn’t been doing so poorly to open the season. 20 carries or so is about right for these guys. I swear if Haley starts running Smith 20 times a game and Jamaal 8 or 9 I will hunt him down.
Please help send my girlfriend to Broadway! Visit http://magonbroadway.blogspot.com/
by Patrick Allen on Nov 20, 2009 8:06 AM CST up reply actions
I was really confused last week
when the announcers kept talking about Charles’ fumble problems, and how that may keep him from replacing LJ, but they were using replays of the botched handoff…which was all on Cassel.
Ryan Succop will be the kicker for the AFC in the 2011 Pro Bowl
Charles is also only 22!
The Chiefs can probably get 7 more good years out of this guy.
Please help send my girlfriend to Broadway! Visit http://magonbroadway.blogspot.com/
by Patrick Allen on Nov 20, 2009 8:01 AM CST up reply actions
Its pretty simple...
Charles runs better outside of the tackles not inside the tackles.
The Steelers Defense is the best at covering RB’s running outside the tackles.
Jamaal Charles is a good back, but is best when used in tandem. Kolby Smith will be the one running up the gut, and I too expect him to get more touches this Sunday.
If we get enough offensive snaps
I say 20 carries to Charles and 7-10 to Smith.
If Charles can do well running against the Steelers that will help the Chiefs back teams off a little. Cassel might finally get a little more time.
Please help send my girlfriend to Broadway! Visit http://magonbroadway.blogspot.com/
Roethlisberger is going to rape our secondary
"What?!?! I aint no Obama for the weed!"
-Turk McBride
Agreed
he is hard enough for a good defense to bring down. We should just rush 11.
Please help send my girlfriend to Broadway! Visit http://magonbroadway.blogspot.com/
by Patrick Allen on Nov 20, 2009 8:30 AM CST up reply actions
Hard to sack QB's
Those guys that are tough to bring down give us fits. How many times did we have Garrard wrapped up, only to see him break away and scramble or throw the ball away? I think Ben is the toughest one to drop in the entire NFL – I expect we’ll get blanked in the sack department. (And I know that’s not all that bold of a prediction given our woeful pass rush.)
by Yaggleberry Finn on Nov 20, 2009 9:31 AM CST up reply actions
This is the first game this year that I have had a really bad feeling about things
Here’s my hope: I thought we had a chance to win the Philly game and the San Diego game and we got stomped in both. I think we are going to get stomped by the Steelers, so maybe we’ll actually step up and give it a go. How’s that for some logic?
The way I see it is our offense with it’s pitiful 3rd down % going against the number one run D, without Bowe to help the passing game equates to very little Chiefs points.
On the other side, a weak pass rush, bad coverage by our safeties and nickel backs, and Big Ben being the best in the league at extending plays until someone comes open equals a 300+ yard day and multiple TDs for the Steelers. I just don’t like how we match up with these guys.
I REALLY hope I’m wrong.
Feeling "The Love" and "Drinking the Kool AId"
Let's Do the Math:
17 possessions X 3 plays per possession = 51 plays
20 carries divided by 51 plays = 39%
Charles won’t get the ball 39% of the time
Prediction: 10 carries for Charles.
I doubt we will go three and out every possession
Though appox. 50 – 60 offensive plays does sound about right.
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by Scaryclouds on Nov 20, 2009 10:00 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
If we get behind early...
We’ll be chucking it all over the place-10 carries for Charles sounds about right…I would think we’ll see more screens.
No one ever says, "It's only a game" when their team is winning.
George Carlin-R.I.P.
by idahochieffan on Nov 20, 2009 10:43 AM CST up reply actions
Ben can be had
Steelers o-line still gives up to many sacks and thats why the Chiefs can have a chance. secondary really needs to step up and make some plays. No more drops for Flowers . Chiefs by field goal late.
It’s not the O-line that gives up sacks. Besides the last Bengals game they have played extremely well this year. Anyway, it’s hard for any OL to hold a block for over 4 seconds. Ben likes to extend plays and is reluctant to throw the ball away, which gives DLs time to find him. Not the OL’s fault this year.
Wall of Shame
"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
by John Stephens on Nov 20, 2009 9:47 AM CST up reply actions
For my money, Jamaal Charles is the man.
Kolby Smith looked slow and lackadaisical last week when running. I don’t think Kolby at his best was as good as Jamaal Charles is now. And by the way, I was expecting big things out of Kolby Smith. I think with his injury time off
Counterintuitive?
“They’re bolstered by a top notch defense that ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed per game and first against the run. This strong running defense is also a reason I think we’ll see Kolby Smith more.”
This doesn’t make any sense. So we’re going against a RUN STUFFING TEAM. Let’s try to power through them with a crappy o-line? No freaking way. Kolby Smith was never good, will never be good, and shouldn’t be an option for us at all. JC is the man, and I wish Savage wasn’t hurt. We can’t block well so we need speedy, elusive backs to overcome that, not Kolby.
No way Kolby would have gotten that TD when Charles did.
Evaluation season
I think it’s really tough to figure out what Haley is thinking and is going to do on any given Sunday. The Star today talked about Lance Long getting a lot more playing time than Bobby Wade because the coaching staff already knows what they have in Wade. Do they feel the same about Kolby Smith? Probably not. Does that mean he’s going to get touches soon so they can evaluate him? If they do, does that mean they’ve seen enough of Jamaal Charles?
And on the flip side, how much does Bowe’s suspension factor in? The offense loses one of its only playmakers, which is certainly going to affect the game plan. I’m curious what they’ll try to do without him… it’ll probably be pretty boring and conservative either way.
by Yaggleberry Finn on Nov 20, 2009 9:41 AM CST reply actions
I have a bad feeling about this game
I think the Steelers D is going to eat us alive. We won’t be able to run productively…and Cassel will have a Steeler or two on him immediately when he tries to pass.
I don’t think they’ll score big on us (maybe 20)…but they won’t have to. We’ll be lucky to get a FG or two.
I hope I’m wrong. The Chiefs fan in me says we’ll shock the defending Champs, and win the game. Realistically, though? See above.
I'll be there
Second game of the year, flying in for Thanksgiving week tomorrow. I’m sure we’ll be cheering heartily for at least the first quarter.
Blame my wife!
Waiting until August 2010
With the timing of the Bowe suspension...
It doesn’t look like the coaches think we could win this one.
No one ever says, "It's only a game" when their team is winning.
George Carlin-R.I.P.
It was the NFL,
But I think the team can pick when it happens.
No one ever says, "It's only a game" when their team is winning.
George Carlin-R.I.P.
by idahochieffan on Nov 20, 2009 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
were gonna lose
we lost to the raiders at the beginning of the year…. barely beat them this time… we only win when the other team wants to lose more. i don’t see Pittsburgh handing us the game easily i expect it to be a blowout like the giants
Not really related to this post but
I saw on ESPN that Randy Moss had been benched by the New England Patriots. I can only assume he already has a ticket to Kansas City and a jersey number worked out?
"You can't polish a turd", old guy, Christine
"Let your anger be, like a monkey in a pinata, hiding amongst the candy, hoping the kids don't break through with their sticks!" Master Payne, King Pow
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