Log Jam at the Bottom
by KCporkchop on Nov 20, 2009 12:23 AM CST
48 comments
As each week goes by we come closer to the end of what is clearly another hard year as a Chiefs fan. You know its bad when the mock drafts start up only a few weeks into the season. It's never too early to hear information on top prospects that might look good in a Chief uniform next year. The reason I can't get into the true mocks yet is because there are so many really bad teams this year that its really hard to guess where KC might pick. So if for nothing more then my own selfish attempt to find a seat on the mock draft band wagon I'm going to try and look at the numerous teams that are all competing for the top draft spots and try and predict how things might pan out.
I see eight teams that have a chance to finish in the top five draft slots: Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Washington. I'll now take a look at each of these team's remaining schedules and make my own prediction of where each team will finish up.
Buffalo (3-6): @Jax, Mia, NYJ, @KC, NE, @Atl, Indy
My prediction: I think Buffalo is done. I don't see another win this year. I'm guessing they finish 3-13.
Cleveland (1-8): @Det, @Cin, SD, Pit, @KC, Oak, Jax
My prediction: I think they're done too. I'm guessing they finish 1-15.
Detroit (1-8): Clv, GB, @Cin, @Bal, Arz, @SF, Chi
My prediction: I think they'll beat Cleveland this week and that's it. They finish 2-14.
Kansas City (2-7): Pit, @SD, Den, Buf, Clv, @Cin, @Den
My prediction: I'm trying not to be a total homer here. Since they are at home, I'm predicting them to beat Buffalo and Cleveland and finish 4-12.
Oakland (2-7): Cin, @Dal, @Pit, Was, @Den, @Clv, Bal
My prediction: I think they'll be better now that they benched Ryan Leaf Jr. but they have a hard schedule. I think they'll beat Washington and Cleveland. They finish 4-12.
St. Louis (1-8): Arz, Sea, @Chi, @Ten, Hou, @Arz, SF
My prediction: I think they'll beat the Seahawks and that's it. They finish 2-14.
Tampa Bay (1-8): NO, @Atl, @Car, NYJ, @Sea, @NO, Atl
My prediction: Freeman has played better then I thought so I wouldn't be shocked if they picked one more team off but I don't see any games where I would flat out pick them. I'm predicting 1-15.
Washington (3-6): @Dal, @Phi, NO, @Oak, NYG, Dal, @SD
My prediction: I think they have a pretty hard schedule the rest of the way. I'm calling for them to pick off Dallas in Washington. They'll finish 4-12.
So I have Cleveland and Tampa both at 1-15, Detroit and St. Louis at 2-14, Buffalo at 3-13, and KC, Oakland, and Washington at 4-12. That would put our Chiefs drafting somewhere between 6-8 depending on how the tie breakers work out.
Now its the NFL so a few of these teams are bound to upset a team that they have no business beating (maybe it will be KC!!!!), but what do you think AP? Looking at those teams and their schedules, where do you think the Chiefs will finish?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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Oh Yeah!
Can’t really argue with your assessment. KC might beat Buffalo, Cleveland and the Donkey’s at least once. thanks for the post. Yes I had a sip of the kool aid.
David Logue
by dklogue1 on Nov 20, 2009 12:46 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think
We can beat alot of teams, all we need is a little offensive rythme! oh and this other thing, yeah a running game.
by thewaffle1 on Nov 20, 2009 1:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think
- - Tampa Bay finishes 1-15 and gets the #1 pick…Ndamukong Suh
- - St. Louis finishes 2-14 beating Seattle at home in week 12…pick Top QB
- - Oakland finishes 2-14 losing their remaining games…pick ???? maybe a QB
- - Cleveland finishes 2-14 beating Oakland at home in week 16… pick ? QB
- - Detroit finishes 2-14 beating Cleveland at home this weekend….pick Russell Okung
- Buffalo finishes 3-13 losing their remaining games…pick 2nd LT…
- - Washington finishes 5-11 beating Oakland and Dallas at home….pick ? QB
- - Seattle finishes 5-11 beating San Fran and Tampa at home… pick Taylor Mays (hometown kid and need plus I want Berry on the board…..)
- - Kansas City finishes 5-11 beating Denver, Cleveland and Buffalo (3 in a row)…. pick Eric Berry
- - Tennessee finishes 5-11 beating St. Louis and Miami at home…. pick Gerald McCoy
I have picked every game for every team and the order of teams finishing with identical records is based on the opponent’s winning percentage i.e. the weaker opponent winning percentage picks earlier. BTW… we are halfway through the season and my picks have been so so at best thus far, but as of today…this is how I have it turning out.
by chrisclark_dfw on Nov 20, 2009 1:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
not sure what happened to the numbers...they were 1 - 10... they are in order though....
by chrisclark_dfw on Nov 20, 2009 1:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i dont know if i see eric berry dropping that low
but i hope we get him
by Lucasjr5 on Nov 20, 2009 1:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah....
I doubt Berry will fall there either, but I have no idea what several of those teams will be thinking by next spring. Cleveland, Oakland, Washington, Buffalo are teams that could have a new coach, and/or GM, by next spring. QB would be a possibility at each of those teams also.
by chrisclark_dfw on Nov 20, 2009 2:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It does seem like a stronger draft class this year, on potential at least
That means someone who may have gone 2nd or 3rd in last years draft may fall down to 9 or 10 this year.
by chiefsandcigars on Nov 20, 2009 7:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely should be able to land an impact player wherever KC sits.
I would expect Buffalo, at the least, to REALLY want an OT.
No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.
by hmills110 on Nov 21, 2009 2:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just use a pound sign by itself and don't double-space between item numbers.
Start each new item with its own “#” all by itself. But you must single-space, or it will start auto-numbering all over again. You’re close to getting it right.
No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.
by hmills110 on Nov 21, 2009 2:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
- Thanks
- - I appreciate the help
by chrisclark_dfw on Nov 22, 2009 9:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
By Jove...
No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.
by hmills110 on Nov 23, 2009 7:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
4-12, we beat Cleveland and Buffalo
I do not see them winning any of the Denver games. I really hope Berry does not get snatched up before we pick, this kid is going to be a difference maker on D and we need a playmaker in this secondary. Oakland still has the skins and Browns so I predict we will once again be flipping a coin with Oakland to determine draft position.
by sandpro on Nov 20, 2009 8:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Denver started
6-0, I think they’ll lose seven in a row and the Chiefs will send them to 6-6 in week 13 at Arrowhead. Things might start getting a little tough in Denver if they continue this skid, and San Diego blows right by them this week. I think we’ll beat them at Arrowhead….
by chrisclark_dfw on Nov 20, 2009 9:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope you are right
I just don’t see it, home games for the Chiefs this year give us no real advantage (both Ws are away) Not to mention that while the Donks are on a skid, they are simply a better team than we are right now. But hey, 4-12 is better than 2-14 right? I will take any improvement.
by sandpro on Nov 20, 2009 9:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree....
Denver is the better team…it just drives me nuts though. I thought they would be the worst team in the league going into the season, given their offseason. Plus, I didn’t think they had addressed their Defensive woes with the exception of changing schemes without the necessary personnel…. Kinda missed on that one…
But right now Denver has got to be thinking about what happened last season, and as the losses keeping adding up, the chances for an all out melt down keep increasing. At least that’s my hope…..
by chrisclark_dfw on Nov 20, 2009 9:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
KC-DEN is interesting matchup.
Not sure about Dawkins’ status, week to week, but it appears to me that their aging secondary is wearing down, and teams have enough film on their talented rookie. They’ve been compensating for being a little light up front by singling-up. And if they don’t single-up, they can be run over. That great D of theirs definitely looks vulnerable against good O-Lines (which we don’t have).
No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.
by hmills110 on Nov 21, 2009 2:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
For sure
you can bet the house Dominik takes Suh. He barely scouts outside of the Big 12 and they already moved Gaines Adams before the tradeline, so they’re looking for a 4-3 DT. Good call.
Welcome to Chiefs REBUILD - Version 2.0 /The Clark Hunt Edition
Chiefs will be lucky to go 4-12 in 2010
by KansasCityShuffle on Nov 20, 2009 11:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
For those that want Berry
History is on our side, NO safety has been taken higher than 5th since Eric Turner was picked 2nd overall by Cleveland in 1991. Looks like KC could wind up in the right spot for Berry.
by sandpro on Nov 20, 2009 8:12 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Word
1-5 for a Safety is out of range, but 6-9 is perfectly acceptable. See Donte Whitner.
Welcome to Chiefs REBUILD - Version 2.0 /The Clark Hunt Edition
Chiefs will be lucky to go 4-12 in 2010
by KansasCityShuffle on Nov 20, 2009 11:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not a Safety like him
He will go high like Aaron Curry did last year, I dont see the Chiefs getting him if we pick after 5.
That Falcons Pick Is Looking Like It Might Be Higher Then We Thought.
I have Ronnie Brown, Micheal Turner, and Dwayne Bowe all on my fantasy team.
by darwithabar on Nov 20, 2009 10:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd
for a title that opens up the door for poo jokes.
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KCSatchmo on Nov 20, 2009 8:14 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
If I'm not mistaken
If your scenario playes out, Wash would draft 6th based on head to head. With Oak/KC flipping for 7-8/
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KCSatchmo on Nov 20, 2009 8:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
draft order criteria
1) Lowest winning percentage to highest winning percentage
2) Superbowl winner picks last – even if they don’t have highest winning percentage
3) Superbowl loser picks next to last
4) Strength of schedule (opponent’s win percentage) is the 1st tiebreak for teams with the same winning percentage.
5) Divisional and Conference records are the next steps in the tiebreaking procedure.
6) Coin toss is the last resort for tiebreaking
7) If a playoff and nonplayoff team end the season with the same winning percentage, the non-playoff team selects before the playoff team regardless of strength of schedule.
Head-to-Head is not a deciding factor in draft order.
http://football.about.com/od/miscinformation/a/detdraftorder.htm
by chrisclark_dfw on Nov 20, 2009 8:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought they changed it
after last year’s debacle
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KCSatchmo on Nov 20, 2009 10:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
There is a rule change.....
NFL owners vote on draft order changes, incomplete pass/fumble rule
By Lindyssports.com staff March 25, 2009
The second major rule change team owners voted to change was the criteria of determining the draft order of pick No. 21 through 30 as it pertains to playoff teams.
Under the new draft order, there will be a reseeding based on how far a particular team makes it in the playoffs.
For example, the losers of the wild-card playoff games will be seeded 21st though 24th based on their records. The losers in the divisional rounds will be seeded 25th though 28th according to their records, while the teams eliminated in the conference championship games will be seeded 29th and 30th according to record.
Finally, the Super Bowl loser will own the 31st selection in next year’s draft, while the winner will own the 32nd pick, which is the last pick in the first round.
The previous rule had the first 30 picks based on regular-season record.
Under the new rule, a team such as the San Diego Chargers, who pick 16th in next month’s NFL Draft as a result of finishing with an 8-8 record, would pick 25th since they advanced to the AFC divisional round of the playoffs where they were defeated by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
by chrisclark_dfw on Nov 20, 2009 10:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A couple more thoughts
I left the Seahawks and Titans off the list because when I looked at their schedules I see Seattle getting at least 2 more wins and the Titans getting at least 3 (if not more) which will take them out of the running for the top 6-7 picks this year.
Second, I’m on the Berry wagon as well and I think the fact that we are one of only 3 or these 8 teams (along with the Lions and Bucs) that will not be considering a QB helps our cause for getting one of the guys we want even if we’re outside the top 5 picks.
Feeling "The Love" and "Drinking the Kool AId"
by KCporkchop on Nov 20, 2009 8:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
4 QB's?
I think the Berry kool-aid has got you a little drunk. There’s no way 4 qb’s go in the top 8 picks. There might not be 4 qb’s picked in the 1st round. Correct me if I’m wrong, but the most pro-ready qb’s in college still have some eligibility left and may opt to stay in school to see how the CBA plays out. This is a very deep draft and Berry may very well fall to 6-8, but be careful what you wish for ’cause you might just get it.
by chiefs fan in stl on Nov 20, 2009 9:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Every thing I have seen is projecting prospects that might normally stay in school will declare because of the uncertainty with the CBA and potential rookie cap.
I know 4 QBs in the top 8 would be abnormal at best, but I have no idea what Al Davis will do … Russell is benched…for the rest of the season? Cleveland, Buffalo, and Washington all could be looking QB…not saying they will, but they could.
Clausen, Locker, Bradford, Mallet and if someone is crazy (Al Davis or Daniel Snyder) maybe Tebow could all possibly go….
by chrisclark_dfw on Nov 20, 2009 9:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus...
Teams like St. Louis, Minnesota, Denver, Seattle, Jacksonville, and Tennessee could all be looking for a QB in this draft as well. Econ 101 – supply and demand…. QBs tend to go higher than their grade.
by chrisclark_dfw on Nov 20, 2009 9:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Add Carolina to that list
Jake Delhomme is about to get run out of town……..
by Hail2DaChiefs on Nov 20, 2009 12:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Giving him a contract extension in the off-season
has to contend for stupidest moves made all year by any organization
Welcome to Chiefs REBUILD - Version 2.0 /The Clark Hunt Edition
Chiefs will be lucky to go 4-12 in 2010
by KansasCityShuffle on Nov 20, 2009 12:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep....made no sense...
He is done.
Don't forget to be an AP-vangelist...Tell A Friend...
by woodman212 on Nov 20, 2009 5:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's possible
Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
Tim Tebow, Florida
Colt McCoy, Texas
Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
There may be others that rate higher come draft time.
(Raiders game 1 should be listed here, 409 yds off, we let them off the hook)
(Cowboy's should be listed here - They are who we thought they were)
Skins
Raiders game 2
Next victim?
by cpa913 on Nov 20, 2009 9:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
re
I would take Zach Collaros at Cincinatti and Jake Locker at Washington before i would take Tebow or Jimmy Clauson.
by tenacious rdc on Nov 20, 2009 9:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Locker could wind up going 1st overall
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KCSatchmo on Nov 20, 2009 10:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This is going to be a deep draft
(Raiders game 1 should be listed here, 409 yds off, we let them off the hook)
(Cowboy's should be listed here - They are who we thought they were)
Skins
Raiders game 2
Next victim?
by cpa913 on Nov 20, 2009 10:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Bucs got #1 spot pretty much on lock down
Welcome to Chiefs REBUILD - Version 2.0 /The Clark Hunt Edition
Chiefs will be lucky to go 4-12 in 2010
by KansasCityShuffle on Nov 20, 2009 11:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
3 other teams with only 1 win.
It may be a tad early to write the Bucs in at #1. Personally, I think the Browns will lose out and get it.
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KCSatchmo on Nov 20, 2009 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Word
Welcome to Chiefs REBUILD - Version 2.0 /The Clark Hunt Edition
Chiefs will be lucky to go 4-12 in 2010
by KansasCityShuffle on Nov 20, 2009 11:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Which of these teams besides the Raiders
will make a monumental reach in the top 10? I realy hope it is not the Chiefs again!!!
by sandpro on Nov 20, 2009 9:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
RE
Cleveland and Denvers defense’s are pretty salty when they show up. And the WILL show up against the Chiefs. THey may be able to beat Buffalo, that’s the only win I see from here on out.
by tenacious rdc on Nov 20, 2009 9:54 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone
see Taylor Mays adding 10-20 lbs and moving to ILB a la Urlacher?
by sandpro on Nov 20, 2009 11:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I actually think Buffalo gets it going starting this week against the Jags....
….I think T.O. is ready for a breakout game and the new (interm) coach will be looking to make a case to keep the job by opening up the offense. So I think Buffalo beats Jacksonville and I give them a punchers chance against Miami and the Jets.
Leave the gun. Take the cannoli.
by BigRedChief on Nov 20, 2009 5:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I would love 5-11.
I dont know why but 5-11 seems tons better than 4-12. Maybe it’s because we were 4-12 a few years ago. Maybe it’s just 5-11 has a good ring to it. I say if we dont pull out a robbery this weekend against Pitts we take one from Denver (preferrably the one on the road in week 17) or show up San Diego on the road.
But first, let’s get by Buffalo and Cleveland.
See ya Later Larry Johnson, or now forever known as "2.7"
by KC Nate on Nov 20, 2009 9:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for summing some things up, KCPorkchop.
I hadn’t been paying that much attention. It DOES appear likely that the Chiefs won’t be in the top 5 in draft order in 2010. With a deep class, and teams lusting after sure-fire QB/LT prospects, in particular, there’s potential for picking up an extra 2nd or 3rd rounder with a trade-down, and getting some quality team-building picks in the 2nd and 3rd.
No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.
by hmills110 on Nov 21, 2009 12:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
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