Taking Another Look at Todd Haley's Play Calling

by Chris Thorman on Nov 19, 2009 7:27 AM CST in 2009 Campaign Comment 15 comments

As I always say in these posts, the goal of looking at Todd Haley's play calling is an attempt to silence those commenters (and people you watch the game with) who yell out in frustration, "Todd Haley always runs it on first down!"

We've put together some stats on Haley's play calling, going down by down and showing you which of those plays made first downs.

Here are some teaser numbers to get you to click over:

On 29% of the Chiefs third downs, they needed 11+ yards to get a first down
The Chiefs convert most of their first downs on second down
56% of all of the Chiefs rushing attempts happen on first down
The play call that has the highest average yards gained is fourth down runs (Thanks Jamaal)

It's all there, after the jump.

First Down (Run 56%; Pass 44%)

131 rushing plays (3.34 average yards per rush), 105 passing plays (4.99 average yards per passing play)

Yards to Go	Rushing Plays	Avg Yards per Rush	Rushing First Downs	% Rushing Plays Converted	Passing Plays	Avg Yards per Pass	Passing First Downs	% Passing Plays Converted
1 to 2	0	0	0	0	3	1	2	67%
3 to 5	4	3	0	0	2	13.5	2	100%
6 to 10	118	3.37	12	10%	94	5.06	21	22%
11 to 15	5	4.4	0	0	4	4.5	1	25%
16+	4	1.5	0	0	2	0	0	0

As you'll see when you move to the other stats, the Chiefs try to establish the run on first down but pretty quickly abandon that idea on other downs.

Second Down (Run 38%; Pass 62%)

69 rushing plays (3.16 average yards per rush), 114 passing plays (4.14 average yards per passing play)

Yards to Go	Rushing Plays	Avg Yards per Rush	Rushing First Downs	% Rushing Plays Converted	Passing Plays	Avg Yards per Pass	Passing First Downs	% Passing Plays Converted
1 to 2	14	4.14	9	64%	3	3.33	1	33%
3 to 5	6	3	2	33%	15	4	7	47%
6 to 10	38	2.89	7	18%	63	3.46	15	24%
11 to 15	5	4	0	0	16	7.12	3	19%
16+	6	2	0	0	17	4.12	1	6%

Since you know all about the Chiefs third down woes, it will come as no surprise that the Chiefs get most of their first down conversions on second down.

24% of these seconds downs have needed 11+ yards to get a first down.

Third Down (Run 20%; Pass 80%)

26 rushing plays (3.31 average yards per rush), 102 passing plays (5.4 average yards per passing play)

Yards to Go	Rushing Plays	Avg Yards per Rush	Rushing First Downs	% Rushing Plays Converted	Passing Plays	Avg Yards per Pass	Passing First Downs	% Passing Plays Converted
1 to 2	7	3.14	4	57%	11	3.45	4	36%
3 to 5	6	1.83	0	0	17	6.65	6	35%
6 to 10	8	2.75	0	0	42	4.05	8	19%
11 to 15	2	7	0	0	19	4.84	3	16%
16+	3	5.67	0	0	13	10.62	1	8%

These numbers are just atrocious. I won't beat a dead horse.

Fourth Down (Run 33%; Pass 67%)

6 rushing plays (8.5 average yards per rush), 12 passing plays (6.42 average yards per passing play)

Yards to Go	Rushing Plays	Avg Yards per Rush	Rushing First Downs	% Rushing Plays Converted	Passing Plays	Avg Yards per Pass	Passing First Downs	% Passing Plays Converted
1 to 2	6	8.5	4	67%	4	1	2	50%
3 to 5	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
6 to 10	0	0	0	0	3	14.67	3	100%
11 to 15	0	0	0	0	2	11.5	2	100%
16+	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0

If we could only play like we do on fourth down, every down. I'm only kidding. Sort of.

The number I really love seeing up there is a hefty nearly 15-yard passing average on 4th and 6-10 yards.

***

For a look back at these numbers in early October, check out this post.

Anything stand out to you?

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Comments

I lot of this is not a suprise

For the most part this is how I perceive it to go…

1st down Haley thinks: We are horrible on first down. We need to get some positive yards. Lets run a little more.

2nd down Haley thinks: Oh sh#&, here we go again. I gotta pass because we are 2nd and (enter any number of 8 or more).

3rd down Haley thinks: Damn…we’re third and long again and the defense is in a 2-9 defense. How the hell are we going to throw the ball to our 10 yard routes without getting a pick.

4th down Haley thinks: Punt the f^#@ing ball.

Bewsaf

by Bewsaf on Nov 19, 2009 8:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

lol, I like the 4th down reaction.

It's years like this that I wish I was a bear. Hibernation would make it so much easier.

by Red N Gold Beast on Nov 19, 2009 9:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Um...

Average of 3.34 ypc on 1st down rushing… that means we have ~6.5 to go for the first. Not good, not terrible. Also, we should look at LJ #’s vs JC numbers.

by EyePod on Nov 19, 2009 11:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My big thing is the fact that we have 37 3rd down attemps of +11

Going the wrong way on 1st and 2nd down (Sacks, penalties…) is the real killer for this team. People want to focus on 3rd down failure and play calling, but 1st and 2nd down is the reason why.
You point out how good we do on 4th down…Well I say we would do just as good on 3rd down if we could get to those short managable yardages.

by vincent2668 on Nov 19, 2009 8:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

But, I guess that's the name of the game and applies to every team in football.

by vincent2668 on Nov 19, 2009 8:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly right!

When almost a third of 3rd down attempts have to go 11+ yards, you will have a terrible average no matter the play called. As a defense, you park your guys at the sticks and force the pass in front of you so you can make a stop and get off the field. We are losing the battle on first down, bring up 2nd and long and then it’s either feast or famine.

by jboot1 on Nov 19, 2009 8:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Going the wrong way on 1st and 2nd down (Sacks, penalties…) is the real killer for this team. People want to focus on 3rd down failure and play calling, but 1st and 2nd down is the reason why.

Which is all well and good except that

The Chiefs convert most of their first downs on second down.

by JacinB on Nov 19, 2009 8:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What does your point have to do with being in 3rd and long all the time?

So, the times we don’t convert on 2nd down or gain positive yardage – we are left with 3rd and long.

by vincent2668 on Nov 19, 2009 9:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Like coach said...

“stats are for losers”

by Goodbye Horses on Nov 19, 2009 8:58 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

And nerds who never

played the game.

by NotAHippie on Nov 19, 2009 9:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I would say alot of Fantasy Football people disagree with that.

by vincent2668 on Nov 19, 2009 9:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What about

guys on golf scholarships?

by Goodbye Horses on Nov 19, 2009 9:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's why the 3rd down conversion rate isn't the issue, in and of itself.

It’s just the generally poor production on EVERY down. The pass attempts on 1st downs jump out at me, because of all the nonsense you hear about playcalling. And on those “flagged” (in my mind) plays, my impression is Cassel hits the receiver in the hands and it’s dropped.

I feel the same way about using 100 yards rushing as a yardstick. People see that you’re above/below that number and talk about great/poor running by the team, when all it is is a yardstick for overall execution. Is the passing attack pushing the safeties out of the box? OTOH, is the running game slowing the pass rush?

Looking at these numbers individually often seems to miss the point of the overall ebb and flow and the main mismatches that are causing the problem.

Frankly, even against the vaunted PITT defense, I see a KC offense that, this week, can cause a lot more problems, because there’s better overall team speed, and the O-Line is slowly getting its act together. The backfield without LJ tests the edges and threatens more off the pass. You can split Jamaal out wide and catch the D with the wrong personnel more easily. And, again, without D-Bowe lining up wide, the WR corps poses more problems in coverage, and, quite frankly, probably give Cassel more predictability in a tight situation that the WR will be where Cassel expects him to be.

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Nov 19, 2009 9:30 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Great job with the stats.

"Gonna gallop all over the Chiefs. Cleat prints on the chests. Mud in the face masks." - 2.7* *Yes I know it was changed to 2.9 but f*ck the statisticians.

by Kristospherein on Nov 19, 2009 11:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

One thing that we tend to forget -

since it’s been so long since we saw it happen – is that when the Chiefs had a solid running game week in and week out, they kept plugging and plugging and plugging with the running game. We only got two yards on first down? Fine. Run it again and get three more. On third and five, you still have a choice of a run or a pass. And by the third or fourth quarter, suddenly you’re starting to break running plays for 10 or 12 yards at a shot.

Myself, I don’t get as worked up about play calling as some folks do – to me, it’s about execution more than play calling – but I do think that one of Haley’s weaknesses about play calling is to abandon the running game too soon. If the first down play gets stuffed at the line, Haley is a lot more likely to go for the pass on second down. I think he ought to keep plugging it. Give it a chance to work.

Yeah… you’ll get some three and outs early, but you’ll keep the defense honest for your passing game.

John

"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!"

by RDOGuy on Nov 19, 2009 11:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs