Statistical Analysis: The Chiefs Offense 1/4 Through
by KaloPhoenix on Oct 5, 2009 3:41 PM CDT
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From the FanPosts -Joel
It'll come as no surprise to anyone reading this that the offense has been bad. I would agree. However, several posters have made reference to Haley being the complete fault of this, and that Chan's offense last year was better. I went searching to find out the truth, and why that may be the case, and here's what I found when I pulled the numbers together.
Week 1
2008 - New England
10 points scored
284 Total Yards
4.6 Yards/play
1 INT
0 Fumbles Lost
2009 - Baltimore
17 points scored (not counting blocked punt)
188 Total
4.3 Yards/play
0 INTs
0 Fumbles lost
Week 2
2008 - Oakland
8 points scored
190 Total Yards
3.1 Yards/play
2 INTs
0 Fumbles lost
2009 - Oakland
10 points scored
409 Total Yards
5.2 Yards/play
2 INTs
0 Fumbles lost
Week 3
2008 - Atlanta
14 points scored
301 Total Yards
4.2 Yards/play
3 INTs
0 Fumbles lost
2009 - Philly
14 points scored
196 Total Yards
3.8 Yards/play
0 INTs
1 Fumble lost
Week 4
2008 - Denver
33 points scored
370 Total yards
6.0 Yards/play
0 INTs
1 Fumble lost
2009 - New York Giants
16 points scored
193 Total yards
3.1 Yards/play
0 INTs
0 Fumbles lost (Charles fumble on Special Teams)
Totals
2008
16.25 points per game
286.25 Total yards per game
4.48 Yards/play
6 INTs
1 Fumble lost
2009
13.5 points per game (16 ppg with the blocked punt)
246.5 Total yards per game
4.1 Yards/play
2 INTs
1 Fumbles lost
Just looking at the statistics alone, yes, 2008 is better from a yardage and scoring standpoint. However, if you want to make the argument that Chan's offense was better, you've got to dig a little deeper.
1. Statistical Anomalies (aka, Spikes in Performance)
The first three games of the 2008 and 2009 season were about even in total yards, while 2009's yards/play and scoring (as well as turnovers) were better. Week 4 of 2008 was a game where LJ played out of his mind and racked up 197 yards on the ground. The scoreboard showed this, and that skewed the totals in 2008's favor. Larry only got into the endzone twice more and only broke 100 yards once more that season. 2009's Chiefs have not seen an "above and beyond" performance like this, so the numbers are lower. Still, numbers are numbers, and we can't discount LJ's performance, even though it was a rarity.
2. Time of Possession
Many have faulted the offense for keeping the defense on the field (I, one of them), so I looked into the amount of time spent by this year and last year's teams on the field. I was a little surprised at the results. In 2008, the Chiefs offense spent about 33 minutes/game on the field through the first quarter. In 2009, they've spent about 29 minutes/game on the field. Most of the 2009 numbers stem from the 4th quarters of the Eagles/Giants games, and from the Oakland game. So, for 6 quarters, we held the ball well. The other 10 we couldn't keep it. Is 4 minutes/game enough to skew the numbers? Possibly, but not enough to put the blame there.
3. Defensive Ratings
We know the schedule makers didn't give us an easy go to get this thing started. New coach, new scheme, new QB, and a new attitude are things to get adjusted to as the year goes along. Last year had a QB carousel through the first 4 games, but the vibe from the previous year was still there. That being said, what's the hardest thing to get figured out with so many new components? A rhythm amongst the players. That has not happened amongst our guys (partially due to the constantly shifting depth chart), and it shows when we take the field. Going against a strong defense is one of the toughest barriers to overcome when you don't have that rhythm. With 2008 and 2009 starting off with some new components, how tough were the defenses to overcome?
2008 - Average defensive ranking: 23rd in the NFL
2009 - Average defensive ranking: 8th in the NFL
That's a leap that very few established teams would be able to handle. A team trying to get some cohesion is understandably struggling. The strength of the defenses that we're playing are causing our coaching staff to change the way they call plays. We may see it as poor play calling, when in truth it could be a superior defense forcing our hand. Watching a pass-happy Cardinals team, and a preseason Chiefs team more comfortable with throwing the ball, I think it's pretty safe to say Haley's disappointed with the amount of plays he can successfully run. Is that the reason for the poor offensive outings so far? Most likely. Our 409 yards of offense against the worst defense we've seen (Raiders - 18th) supports this somewhat...unless that is our statistical anamoly. Dallas (26th overall) should help prove or disprove this theory.
So is this offense bad? Yes, they've shown little to prove otherwise. Is it completely on one aspect of our offense (Cassel, Haley, offensive line, LJ)? Hardly. Too little credit has been given to toughness of the defenses we've played, and the extent they've changed our gameplans. Give it time, let us play a couple more teams without such strong defenses (Dallas, Washington, Jacksonville, Oakland in our next 4 - average of 21st overall at the moment), and then evaluate. A brand new offense takes time to develop without tough D. Let's take a step back and give it such.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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Excellent points
Thank you. This helps to ease the pain.
I think we all needed a reality check.
The hopes of a new season have now faded. Lets make something positive happen in the second quarter of this season, so we all don’t kill each other:)
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
Well said
I knew the D’s we were laying were good but jesus. A combined 8th? Wow.
Also I am amazed that the Raiders D is ranked 18th as terrible as Jamarcus is…but it makes me feel good that we moved the ball so much against them. 18th isn’t great but if, as you said, that game wasn’t the anamoly, then we should have some offensive success against the Cowboys. Here’s hoping.
Be sure to check out the Arrowhead Pride weekly Power Rankings
Wait... what?
Jamarcus is a QB…. how does that factor into the ranking of Oakland’s D?
Bask in the glory that is Kwame Harris. Poor Alex...
Great post!
I wish it made me feel better. Let’s just hope for a W vs dallas.
Agreed and Rec'd
I agree with this post more than any other post of yours I’ve read in a long time!
Bask in the glory that is Kwame Harris. Poor Alex...
I CAN HAZ PROPAGANDA?!!?!1!!
We didn’t install the spread set until the jets game last year. That was when thiggs took off and chan got install his new offense. If you want to talk about stats skewing games, you have to incorporate atlanta, where thigpen looked and played like a scared little girl, so that pretty much cancel’s out larry right? Not to mention that those games where played not by our starting qb, but by DAMON FREAKING HUARD and a poor showing by thigpen. And yet, we still can’t compete even with the BEGINING of last year’s offense, atrocious as it was. There is NO reason our offense should have regressed AT ALL.
by Cassel is a west coast pretty boy on Oct 5, 2009 5:04 PM CDT reply actions
The spread was not "chans new offense"
It was a hail mary…and it failed
Don't forget to be an AP-vangelist...Tell A Friend...
meh
semantics
they forced his hand, but he ran with it, and most of all, worked with what he had. Wasn’t it Haley that was preaching you do what you’re good at or something to that effect?
by Cassel is a west coast pretty boy on Oct 5, 2009 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions
It is also Haley that has only been running his own offense for a month...
Learning curve….AHH Who needs to learn?!
Don't forget to be an AP-vangelist...Tell A Friend...
Shouldn't the players be able to afford
a personal usb port to make it easy to just download the whole playbook on day one?
/sarcasm.
Bask in the glory that is Kwame Harris. Poor Alex...
well i guess we will see if your right
hopefully playin 3 defenses that are in the top 10 in the nfl will help our guys when they play a team like the cowboys and they realize that hey this isnt that bad and move the ball. one thing that dallas does do very well is pressure the QB cassel better be ready
Statistical Anomaly
Game 2 of this year (vs Oakland) and the total yards – if you’re going to count LJ’s running game from last year as an anomaly, the same applies for this year (IMNSHO)
overall, good research and well done – for whatever it’s worth and whatever it gets us
one (other) point to remember here: if I recall, we didn’t see the Wildcat until middle of last year … I’m curious to see the “raw numbers” from that, or at least from last half of last year compated to this year, etc etc ad nauseum
point well made and taken in terms of defenses played (this year) … we shall see how it goes from here
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisiton!
RIght
And I did say
Our 409 yards of offense against the worst defense we’ve seen (Raiders – 18th) supports this somewhat…unless that is our statistical anamoly.
For that very reason. I hope it’s not the case, and given the defensive wall we’ve been put up against thus far, one could make the assumption that with the worst defensive team we’ve seen, maybe we’ll get better. The next four games should shift our offensive views one way or the other.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
The 2008 Chiefs Offense in the first quarter of the season was a turd
Who really gives a crap if our offense in 2009 is marginally better or worse in some areas than in 2008. It’s stil in the toilet bowl and I think it would be tough for anyone to say there has been any improvment.
But
If I were to compare through the entire season, I’d get people complaining that too large of sample was taken, a different offense was ran, etc.
I went with the first four because we’ve played the first four. Our offense right now is a “turd” too, but we’ve played statistically better defenses thus far.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
My 5 yr old grandson said it best..
all you doubters and haters take this season off and come back next year at this time….
Good Stuff...
But there really isn’t any analysis.
Not to be a one upper, but I have some ideas to break down yards per play, and what we give up relative to time of possession. There is more to points and yards in moving the ball, things like three and outs. I would say this year’s offense is way worse than last years (at least to this point), but my opinion may be skewed based on what the Chiefs did late last year out of the Pistol.
Again good stuff, but really no analysis.
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
Waiting on your thoughts Thursday:)
Did Haley ever give any notice that he would attempt the Wildcat? Maybe the Pistol will be revived, for some plays!
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
I included yards per play
3rd down percentage is obviously higher. We’re reaching some serious ineptitude. I didn’t include that, and probably I should’ve.
2009 – 17.6%
2008 – 38% (Through Week 4)
Again, though…defensive strength can sway this number. Eagles and Giants blitzed the crap out of us on 3rd downs and it worked. That happened to be the big hit in that percentage.
As far as analysis goes…I attempted to do just that in the last half of the post. NFL.com doesn’t exactly make it easy to siphon out the first four weeks like this season, so I based it off of the (somewhat limited) amount of work I was willing to delve into. Next time I’ll strive to please a little better than I did.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
*first four weeks of the 2008 season, like this season
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
You did fine and nice stuff
your dealing with Gatsby who is a Baseball stats guy, maybe football is less individual stats and more team effort to accomplish the task at hand
We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram
Well I im no sabrmatrician per say...
but I definitely have some ideas. I may pay the fee to look at the football outsider stuff. They have some pretty good point of attack information that would be pretty hard for the average person to do.
I also think there is more stuff you can do defensively, I think with Defense time of possession is more telling than with the offense. Ive also got some access to some pretty awesome statistical evaluation software at school, im not real good with it so it may have to wait till later in the semester.
I also think (without checking the stats) that we are way more penalized than last year which really does affect how your offense plays. The only real question I have is Im not sure how Im going to rectify the second half of the Philly game where Haley kept running the ball for no apparent reason.
I really hope Im not setting people up with high expectations because this is really going to be my first effort into doing something of this sort. I also want to look at QB ratings compared to the average QB allowed by the opposition.
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Oct 5, 2009 11:03 PM CDT up reply actions
WoooWHOOO!!!!
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2009/week-3-dvoa-ratings
This was going into this week, they haven’t been changed yet… And Im not sure how this works, but basically my lay person understanding of it is this… Basically the Chiefs offense is a little better than it looks being roughly 6% worse than the average offense. And the defense is (5% better than the average offense.
Im not really sure how this is figured yet, but the way I understand at least for the defense, is that with every single play (so every single 1st and 10 and every 3 and 3). The chiefs are more successful defensively than the average defense 25% of the time. This tells me that the defense has been a little unlucky and that they have just been put in really bad situations because of the offense. I think the reason the offense isn’t quite as bad as we expect is because of the penalties. So if they Chiefs can cut back on the major penalties we have potential to be at least an average offense.
The Chiefs going forward (after the Philly game) had pretty much a dead even schedule ahead, Im not sure how this is affected now that the Giants are behind us, but we still have to play Denver twice and they really might be legit. Football Outsiders had the Chiefs ranked 27, but that was based on projections and not actual results, but after week 4 they start to use actual results instead, so I am really curious how things will change.
In a nutshell this I find this to be a little encouraging, meaning we probably aren’t quite as bad as we have looked (not saying much). Probably will still be a little lucky to win 5 games this year, but if this team “gels at all” and improves like a team should then I think we will definitely have some momentum and positive things to build on.
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Oct 5, 2009 11:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Football Outsiders does a lot of good work
But there’s this:
There are no opponent adjustments in VOA until the fourth week of the season, which is why it is VOA right now rather than DVOA. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
They’ll have some of those this week, but the stats they have up now don’t figure in strength of the opponent’s defense…which is one of the MAJOR detractors in our offense’s performance.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
I think I mentioned that...
Im sure now that the baseball season is over, I will devote more time to this because Im a nerd.
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Oct 5, 2009 11:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Did you?
I may have missed that. Either way, we’re glad to have another stat hound in the mix. I, for one, enjoy the numbers.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
well kind of
but that was based on projections and not actual results, but after week 4 they start to use actual results instead, so I am really curious how things will change.
But yeah, I can’t help but wonder about this stuff. I think ideally if I could do school all over I would get a math major in hopes of using it to be a statistician for a baseball team, and if not fall back on teaching. Im hoping to use the Sabrmetric movement as a topic for a paper in my Quantitative Decision making class, its basically the same thing, instead of making choices on production numbers and break even points, I would apply it to not making outs and why “Player A” is better than “Player B”
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Oct 5, 2009 11:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I've also found
That no matter how much effort you throw into an argument, you’re going to have your detractors. I like to think I do well enough on occasion to warrant continued postings. Point is, no matter what others may think, if you’re happy with it (and not pissing anybody off), then do it.
I did some of that defensive stuff for a post awhile back. I found that QB rating is somewhat flawed in defensive analysis, so I excluded it. Was Cassel worth a 124.5 QB rating against the Eagles? Was he as bad as a 66.3 against the Raiders? Rough stat to incorporate, because several short passes for 90 yards and a couple garbage time TD’s make for a better rating than Brees’ 311 yards and 3 TD’s. As for TOP, I try to include that in all my offensive/defensive posts. It’s a very telling stat.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
Fair enough...
Like I said Im just now getting into this stuff. If only I could devote myself to school the way I do to stupid shit like this. I have long thought there were flaws in QB rating, but I really had never really looked into it. I first became suspect when running a season of Madden when my QB led the league in QB rating (and it wasn’t even close) despite being like 15th in passing yards, like 12th in TD’s but I also threw like the 6 or 7th most INT’s.
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Oct 5, 2009 11:41 PM CDT up reply actions
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