How to Win Games in Today's NFL

by KCporkchop on Oct 23, 2009 2:16 PM CDT Comment 32 comments

Football has always been a physical game. We've all heard it before "You win football games by pounding the football and playing great defense." It's a "tuff guy's" way to play football. It also appears that it may not be true in today's NFL. More and more the NFL is becoming an "air it out" league, and so far this year this approach is working. As our beloved Chiefs try and build a winner, I'm curious as to what approach works best. I don't think anyone would argue that the very best teams in the NFL do everything well. They run the ball, pass the ball, and play good defense. But which of these areas are responsible for the most wins? Let's take a look at how it's breaking down this year.

Let's start by looking at the teams in the top half of the NFL in three key areas. Passing Yards Per Game, Rushing Yards Per Game, and Yards Allowed Per Game. Here are the top teams (1-16) for each.

Passing Yards/Game:Colts, Steelers, Texans, Patriots, Chargers, Cardinals, Saints, Ravens, Cowboys, Packers, Giants, Eagles, Broncos, Jaguars, Falcons, and Bears.

Through six weeks these teams are a combined 59-28, for a winning percentage of about 67.8%

Rushing Yards/Game: Dolphins, Jets, Cowboys, Saints, Giants, Titans, Broncos, Panthers, Vikings, Ravens, Jaguars, Bills, Patriots, Bengals, Steelers, and 49ers.

Through six weeks these teams are a combined 55-36, for a winning percentage of about 60.4%

Defense Yards Allowed/Game: Giants, Broncos, Steelers, Eagles, Redskins, Patriots, Colts, Packers, Saints, Dolphins, Jets, Panthers, Bears, Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals.

Through six weeks these teams are a combined 55-32, for a winning percentage of about 63.2%

Now, these winning percentages alone support the claim that the passing game is the most essential element to winning, but let's pick these numbers apart a little more.

Let's start by just looking at the offense and leave the defense out of it.

There are 8 teams in the top half of the league in passing that are NOT in the top half in rushing (Colts, Texans, Chargers, Cardinals, Packers, Eagles, Falcons, and Bears). Those teams are a combined 26-15, for a winning percentage of about 63.4%

There are 8 teams in the top half of the league in rushing that are NOT in the top half in passing (Dolphins, Jets, Titans, Panthers, Vikings, Bills, Bengals, and 49ers). Those teams are a combined 22-23, for a winning percentage of about 48.9%

There are 8 teams that are in the top half of the league in rushing and passing (Steelers, Patriots, Saints, Ravens, Cowboys, Giants, Broncos, and Jaguars). Those teams are a combined 33-13, for a winning percentage of about 71.7%

Now we are starting to get to some real clear answers. Those percentages make it clear that being able to both run and pass is clearly the best way to win, but if you have to choose between one or the other, passing the ball leads to more wins this year then rushing.

Next, let's factor defense into the equation to see if the old school belief that running the football and playing good defense will get you wins.

Teams in the top half of the league in Passing Yards and Defense Yards Allowed but not in the top half in rushing (Eagles, Colts, Packers, Bears, and Cardinals) are a combined 17-8, for a winning percentage of about 68%

Teams in the top half of the league in Rushing Yards and Defense Yards Allowed but not in the top half in passing (Dolphins, Jets, Panthers, and 49ers) are a combined 10-11, for a winning percentage of about 47.6%

Here's the winner: Teams in the top half of the league in Rushing, Passing, and Defense Yards Allowed (Giants, Broncos, Steelers, Patriots, and Saints) are a combined 24-5, for a winning percentage of about 82.8%

For what its worth: The Redskins and Seahawks are in the top half in defense but not in passing or rushing. They are a combined 4-8, for a winning percentage of 33.3%

So adding the defense to the equation only magnified the results. "All of the above" is clearly the winner (no surprise). However, we are now seeing a clear advantage to passing and D (68%) over running and D (47.6%).

So what about the teams that throw the ball well but aren't in the top half of the league in defense?

The Texans, Chargers, Falcons, and Bears are currently in the top half in passing, but not rushing or defense. They are a combined 12-9, for a winning percentage of 57.1%

So this year in the NFL you can win over half of your games if you pass the ball well even if you don't run the ball or play great defense.

Still not convinced? I've got one more for you. There are 13 teams in the NFL that are averaging less then 200 yards per game in passing (Raiders, Browns, Jets, Panthers, 49ers, Chiefs, Dolphins, Bills, Titans, Rams, Bucs, Lions, and Redskins). These teams are a combined 19-56, for a winning percentage of just 25.3%

This is no longer your father's NFL. If you want to win games today you simply have to throw the football. Period. Keep in mind that good teams should have the lead and rush more to run out the clock and bad teams should be passing more to try and get back into the game. However, even that hasn't tipped the numbers. The teams that pass well usually win and those that don't pass well are losing. Is this a one year fluke? Time will tell, but I for one will feel a lot better about our team if we can get the passing game going.

GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!

-Porkchop Out!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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nice research

* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season

by stagdsp on Oct 23, 2009 2:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

well heres to hoping Rivers doesnt go all pass crazy on us

he has some damn good targets arent 3 of his receivers 6"5’ or taller? I hope our secondary lives up to their potential this weekend and most of Rivers completions go into the arms of Flowers, Page, Carr, Legget, or McGraw

by jrcnc on Oct 23, 2009 2:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice job Porkchop

Rivers will have no choice but to air it out because their run game will go NOWHERE. Our secondary BETTER hold up but honestly, I think the D-line and the pass rush will be the difference (did I really just say that?)

Yes folks, you heard it here first. The Chiefs will get at least 3 sacks and 2 interceptions against the Chargers this weekend.

by Chiefsfan1970 on Oct 23, 2009 2:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If that is the case....

We have the perfect HC for the job. Former OC former WR coach former Passing game Coordinator…….he has all the knowledge to succeed in the NFL.

He just has to get Pioli to get him some more talent to work with and we should be good to go.

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Oct 23, 2009 3:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree 100%

This is part of why I’m “Mr. Optimistic” about our future. I think Haley will eventually get this offense going. I think we have a QB in Cassel that can run his offense. I think we have a GM that will keep working to get the talent we need to make it happen. It has to be really frustrating for Haley right now after working with the Cards passing game the last couple years. We’ll get there.

It's a good thing Pioli and Haley aren't running AP or a lot of you guys would of been traded or cut for cast offs from the Pats Pulpit.

by KCporkchop on Oct 23, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great post

Not sure if you’re aware, but coldhardfootballfacts.com claims yards per pass attempt (YPA) is a stat that most strongly correlates with team success. Thought you might be interested since it dovetails nicely with your research.

by CoastalBronco on Oct 23, 2009 4:08 PM CDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

I hadn't heard of that site.

I’ll have to check it out, thanks.

It's a good thing Pioli and Haley aren't running AP or a lot of you guys would of been traded or cut for cast offs from the Pats Pulpit.

by KCporkchop on Oct 23, 2009 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exc post and Rec

nice analysis of what it takes to win and how.
Pioli will be calling soon I think :)
I think his Guru stayed in New England with Bellicheck

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Oct 23, 2009 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

RPI.com or whatever it is now is excellent in college basketball at showing

why teams win or lose stat wise.

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Oct 23, 2009 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great Post.

Couldn’t agree more. We’re on the way up, we just have to get the talent behind us. Some of the pieces are there, but we still have a ways to go. Like I said in a previous post, as far as I’m concerned, ’09 is nothing more than extended preseason.

by BetterRedThanDead on Oct 23, 2009 4:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

There might

be some truth to this theory but your just mixing apples with oranges. I believe games are won in the trenches. If your defense can consistently disrupt their offense you will win. If their defense can consistently disrupt your offense they will win. A poor O line and D line is the kiss of death.

All things being equal the team with the best players at the skill positions wins. There’s a high school coach with a winning record in Arkansas that never punts and statistics support his theory. But I bet he has a pretty good O & D line.

by choirboy on Oct 23, 2009 4:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What you're saying doesn't really discredit my point

To pass the ball well you need a good o-line. To stop the other team from passing you need a good d-line. Look at Minnesota for example. They had a great D line and running game (O line included) and weren’t really a factor because they didn’t have a QB that could really throw the football. They bring in Favre and at least have a respectable pass game and now they are undefeated. The battle at the line of scrimmage is important, but if you still can’t throw the football you won’t win (as much).

It's a good thing Pioli and Haley aren't running AP or a lot of you guys would of been traded or cut for cast offs from the Pats Pulpit.

by KCporkchop on Oct 23, 2009 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

MIN also added a 1st round WR.

But Harvin hasn’t been HUGE. Thing is, Favre’s job is easy, because he always has somebody singled-up that’s a mismatch, when he needs it.

I think choirboy has a point in that it’s easy to mistake what’s causal for these teams’ success. I think your research would be more valid if you looked at the top 5 or so teams, instead of just the top half of the league, which includes a lotta teams that are marginally better.

Also, if you’re looking at the top half, you’re BOUND to see more successful passing games and better records.

I’m not saying your point isn’t valid. Hell, I’d just point to the Steelers and say HERE’s a team that could NOT run the rock worth a DAMN and they won the SB that way. That’s pretty unprecedented and is highly indicative that the tipping point has been reached.

Myself, I don’t really like the trend. I think the league has neglected the DB positions, basically just taking what’s comin’ up from the college game, and being forced to field DBs that simply can’t match up with today’s WRs and some ridiculous rules that are taking a lotta steam outta what defenses can do in terms of aggression in the offensive backfield, not to mention the pitty-pat BS that’s goin’ on in D-backfields.

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Oct 23, 2009 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Minnesota also

has the best running back in the league which opens up their passing game.

by choirboy on Oct 23, 2009 4:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't get

me wrong I love the passing game and you are probably right. I’m a big fan of Don Coryel and Bill Walsh. They changed the game forever.

by choirboy on Oct 23, 2009 5:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The AFL changed the way the NFL plays

Does this game of football have any news wrinkles to explore?

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Oct 23, 2009 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

New wrinkles

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Oct 23, 2009 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

The Wildcat.

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius, in contrary to Glenn Dorsey lining up in the 2-tech

by ArrowSpread on Oct 23, 2009 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Spread?

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Oct 23, 2009 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What!

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Oct 23, 2009 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

One thing that HAS evolved on D is red zone.

It’s tougher and tougher to just punch the ball in on the ground. Just ask Miami. They’re moving the ball VERY well on the ground, but the Colts showed that that approach has its limitations against a team that can’t run worth a damn, but can THROW the ball. In years past, the team with the dominant run game would’ve won that Miami-Indy game.

Speaking of the ‘9ers, one of their secrets to rackin’ up the points was their ability to score from outside the 20. That’s a HUGE part of the trend you’re seeing, imo. There are more and more teams that CAN score on big plays.

But this is all anecdotal. Much respect for the work you put in KCporkchop. I’ve been enjoying a lotta your comments in other threads, as well. We seem to see things somewhat the same. :o)

I mean :o( I pity you.

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Oct 23, 2009 7:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Passing...

may get you wins, but defense wins championships. The Colts didn’t get over the top until their defense stepped it up. Those playoff games are often played in conditions that are not condusive to passing. The Cards would be Superbowl champions had their defense stopped the Steelers as the same for the Patriots the year before. That is why I would still prioritize defense over passing, but I agree you that passing is far more important today than running the ball.

by I_Bleed_Red. on Oct 23, 2009 7:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

All are still important

just a rearrangement of how to get it down offensively, probably due to rule changes.
BUT you have to have a QB to get to the top.
The caretaker QB is not going to win SB’s anymore IMO

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Oct 23, 2009 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and I tried to make it clear that a balance still is the best way to go

But if you look at a team like the Cardinals (top passing team that is not in the top half in rushing or defense) they are doing better then Washington (defense, but no passing or rushing) or the Titans (rushing, but no passing or defense).

It's a good thing Pioli and Haley aren't running AP or a lot of you guys would of been traded or cut for cast offs from the Pats Pulpit.

by KCporkchop on Oct 23, 2009 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

but that is the regular season. My point was that defensive importance greatly rises when it comes to January football. The Cards defense stepped it up in their playoff run kind of like the Colts two years before.

by I_Bleed_Red. on Oct 24, 2009 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

awesome stuff, Po'kchop ... though now I wonder if this like just for THIS year or if it's like some kind of long-term trend

therefore you are mandated to do said equivalent research for every year going back to and inclusive of 2001and report back to us … (checking watch) … whenever

seriously, yeah you gotta do ALL things well – passhappy teams now, would ALMOST have thought a lot of the higher passing teams MIGHT be those with not-so-good defense trying to play “catch-up”

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisiton!

by upamtn on Oct 23, 2009 9:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

you just need to outscore the opponent to win

by krayfish on Oct 24, 2009 8:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

oh that wasn't one of the options..sorry!

by krayfish on Oct 24, 2009 8:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

AND, you have to play to win the game.

Air Cassel - approved for takeoff

by kabrink on Oct 24, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How do the Chiefs Win games in the NFL?

The Chiefs D needs to keep the score in the teens to give the O a chance.
The O is good for about 10-12 points a game so far. If the D chips in with some big plays maybe you could push up to 16 for the enemy and still think to win.
Alas a Shootout is not winning football for the Chiefs in 2009 :(

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Oct 24, 2009 5:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd give 'em a bump for strength of schedule.

The early stretch was against some of the better d-lines in the league. I don’t see the offense doing anything but get better (How could it not?) as the season progresses, and SD is very unsound up front, right now.

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Oct 25, 2009 12:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs