Why the Chiefs Oline are as bad as you think....

by Matt_Grbac on Oct 23, 2009 10:29 AM CDT Comment 29 comments

Info via FootballOutsiders.Com

This is just a little stats table to show how our offensive line is terrible. No matter how good Brandon Albert is, we have to fix the line as a whole. As you can see in the table....we are dead last 32nd in run blocking and 29th in pass protection. We have to address this problem....its not gonna go away by itself.

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

Losses: 120% value
0-4 Yards: 100% value
5-10 Yards: 50% value
11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations. Finally, we normalize the numbers so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry. These stats are explained further here.

The following stats are not adjusted for opponent:

RB Yards: Yards per carry by that team's running backs, according to standard NFL numbers.
10+ Yards: Percentage of a team's rushing yards more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Represents yardage not reflected in Adjusted Line Yards stat.
Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.
Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).

NFL averages for each stat given in red.

Why are these rankings different from the team offense DVOA ratings for rushing? Among other reasons, they don't include quarterbacks or fumbles, long runs are truncated, and a different set of adjustments is used, attempting to isolate line play rather than total team offense.

A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in 10+ Yards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in 10+ Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work.

However, it is important to understand that these ratings only somewhat separate the offensive line from the running backs. A team with a very good running back will appear higher no matter how bad their line, and a team with a great line with appear lower if the running back is terrible.

Stats in blue represent pass blocking. Teams are ranked according to adjusted sack rate, which gives sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent. Pass blocking stats are explained further here. Our sack totals may differ slightly from official NFL totals depending on the league's retroactive statistical adjustments.

Because it is still early in the season, opponent adjustments are currently set at 60 percent strength.

RUN BLOCKING										PASS PROTECTION
	TEAM	Adj. Line Yards	RB Yards	Power Success	Power Rank	10+ Yards	10+ Rank	Stuffed	Stuffed Rank	TEAM	Sack Rank	Sacks	Adj. Sack Rate
1	MIA	4.89	4.83	89%	1	16%	16	16%	6	ATL	1	2	0.7%
2	DAL	4.85	5.97	55%	22	31%	3	21%	19	IND	2	2	1.9%
3	BAL	4.73	5.02	50%	26	22%	9	17%	8	NYG	3	5	2.7%
4	NO	4.51	4.72	71%	8	21%	11	22%	23	NO	4	5	3.1%
5	DEN	4.50	4.46	53%	24	14%	20	25%	29	NE	5	7	3.5%
6	PHI	4.43	4.34	75%	6	13%	22	16%	4	TEN	6	5	3.7%
7	NE	4.37	4.50	70%	10	14%	19	21%	22	TB	7	12	4.7%
8	NYG	4.36	4.57	50%	29	19%	13	22%	24	BAL	8	10	4.9%
9	CAR	4.23	4.38	50%	27	15%	17	15%	1	DEN	9	9	5.0%
10	ATL	4.14	3.73	79%	4	11%	25	21%	21	DAL	10	9	5.1%
11	MIN	4.07	4.48	55%	23	29%	4	21%	18	CIN	11	11	5.2%
12	JAC	4.05	4.31	70%	11	25%	6	20%	13	HOU	12	10	5.4%
13	CIN	4.05	4.16	79%	5	14%	18	16%	3	ARI	13	10	5.6%
14	NYJ	4.02	4.79	89%	2	27%	5	19%	12	CHI	14	9	5.7%
15	GB	4.01	3.70	60%	17	9%	29	16%	5	STL	15	13	6.0%
16	PIT	3.98	4.10	67%	12	19%	12	20%	16	PHI	16	13	6.4%
RUN BLOCKING										PASS PROTECTION
	TEAM	Adj. Line Yards	RB Yards	Power Success	Power Rank	10+ Yards	10+ Rank	Stuffed	Stuffed Rank	TEAM	Sack Rank	Sacks	Adj. Sack Rate
17	IND	3.92	3.45	70%	9	10%	27	25%	30	SD	17	15	6.7%
18	BUF	3.91	3.91	56%	19	11%	24	15%	2	CLE	18	16	6.9%
19	STL	3.81	4.24	44%	30	17%	15	21%	20	JAC	19	15	7.0%
20	WAS	3.81	3.96	67%	15	21%	10	17%	7	SEA	20	15	7.1%
21	TEN	3.67	5.67	67%	14	38%	1	19%	10	MIN	21	14	7.2%
22	SEA	3.65	3.77	57%	18	19%	14	20%	17	PIT	22	16	7.7%
23	CLE	3.58	3.54	56%	20	10%	26	22%	26	NYJ	23	12	7.8%
24	SD	3.50	3.01	43%	31	6%	32	22%	27	CAR	24	13	8.2%
25	OAK	3.50	3.31	80%	3	7%	31	17%	9	WAS	25	17	8.2%
26	TB	3.47	4.07	67%	13	23%	8	20%	15	DET	26	22	9.1%
27	CHI	3.43	3.65	55%	21	24%	7	28%	31	MIA	27	13	9.4%
28	HOU	3.35	3.24	50%	28	12%	23	25%	28	OAK	28	16	9.6%
29	DET	3.35	3.26	63%	16	10%	28	20%	14	KC	29	22	9.8%
30	ARI	3.31	3.20	50%	25	13%	21	31%	32	BUF	30	19	10.2%
31	SF	2.89	3.90	43%	32	36%	2	22%	25	SF	31	16	10.6%
32	KC	2.87	3.03	73%	7	9%	30	19%	11	GB	32	25	12.7%
x	NFL	x	4.15	63%	x	19%	x	20%	x	NFL	x	12	6.5%

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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can't run block or pass bock

Horrible in adjusted sack rate too.

These numbers will probably only get worse with Albert out and possibly O’Callaghan too.

We’ve played some really good defensive lines so far, which has probably made these numbers worse than they might be. But most teams have at least one or two very good players in the front seven, and so we’re still going to be facing tough matchups for our OL going forward.

But not AS tough as we’ve seen so far, though. The weakest part of our team (OL) has been matched up with some of the best defensive fronts in the league in most of our games so far. It’s actually fairly surprising we’ve scored the points we have. Not that we’ve scored many.

by Offense of the 70s on Oct 23, 2009 11:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't need all these stat lines to tell me how bad they suck.

Watching Cassel get his face ground into the turf week after week gives me all the evidence I need.

by Chiefsfan1970 on Oct 23, 2009 11:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

by HeatherChiefsLvr on Oct 23, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

numbers, schmumbers

* "I doubt anyone will miss Connor Barth except UCrawford"
* the LB corps may become the biggest strength of the Chiefs in 2009
* The OL is NOT as bad as you think it is... give it time, and you'll see improvement this season

by stagdsp on Oct 23, 2009 11:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

This sucks....

But look at the bright side…We are ranked 7th in Power Rank Runs….that is pretty good.

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Oct 23, 2009 11:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah

the Stuffed rank isn’t bad either. So, we’re pretty decent at creating holes when we need to but we’re only gaining very short yardage when we do. A RB problem as much as an O-line problem.

We’re also 27th in pass offense: Our receivers aren’t getting open soon and often enough.

We’re worst in sacks: Our QB doesn’t put himself in a position to be able to get rid of the ball very often.

I’m not trying to defend our O-line, but I think it’s safe to say they’re not the only problem here.

by ChiefsDude on Oct 23, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree ChiefsDude

everyone plays a part. In order to be a well oiled machine they all have to pull their weight and execute each and every play.

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Oct 23, 2009 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Personally

I think Haley could fit his system to our players strengths but chooses not to. It puts a lot of pressure on bringing in better players. But maybe we’re better off if we can build a team around a few players that know Haley’s system and can play pretty well, like Cassel and Albert.. is there anyone else that might be here in 3 years?

by ChiefsDude on Oct 23, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

On offense....

I see Bowe, Charles, Lawrence, Cassel, Albert, and thats pretty much it in 3yrs. Thats kinda scary actually. Our team is gonna be flipped big time in the next couple offseasons.

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Oct 23, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not so sure

they will keep making changes… but I think the rate of those changes will slow after next season.

we’ll see

by stagdsp on Oct 23, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But in the next 3 yrs

Waters will be gone, Niswanger, Goff, Ryan, LJ, Bradley, Engram…probably Croyle, Cox, Savage, Wade……I expect a big turnover in the next 3yrs…..maybe not next year but definately in the next 3…..Im talking offense here also…..defense looks pretty stout for a few more years.

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Oct 23, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice post Matt

Maybe a post next week to show improvement (or not)
We need to know what we are getting better at.
This season is most likely just what improvements we are seeing
and Where! Rec to the post

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Oct 23, 2009 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

so much for Lawrence....

by ChiefsDude on Oct 24, 2009 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They don't play with that toughness you see other o lines come in with..

they don’t have a “bring it” attitude. I don’t think they have the talent either to justify playing with that kind of confidence and swagger.

We will probably have a nearly completely new o line next season.

by krayfish on Oct 24, 2009 8:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So this is what it's like for a Chiefs o-lineman...

I’m a little dazed, confused, and cross eyed looking at all those stats.

by 12t on Oct 23, 2009 11:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

totally

I just watch the tv and see sucktitude

Air Cassel - approved for takeoff

by kabrink on Oct 23, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I feel like I just did Math

You have wounded my brain on a Friday.

I hope you’re happy with yourself.

The Chiefs are on their way to an 11-5 season...I think....

by mushin on Oct 23, 2009 11:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry mushin

I did it before you could do it yourself….

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Oct 23, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And for that, my family thanks you

I usually use sharp objects as opposed to math, but this works to

The Chiefs are on their way to an 11-5 season...I think....

by mushin on Oct 23, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Oct 23, 2009 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just go back to the Mississippi rule

You know, one Mississippi, two Mississippi….
If the QB is in trouble before a count of two Mississippi, your O-line sucks. Kansas City fits here.
If he is in trouble after six Mississippi, the QB is taking way too much time. See Ben Roethlisburger.
Somewhere in between you have to look at the situation.

One disturbing thing I saw was your left tackle and left guard standing there while 3 guys ran around them to sack Cassel. At least they should try to slow someone down. Hope it gets better for you.

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Oct 23, 2009 2:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe your boy Pioli

Needs to get us some more oline talent in here….or maybe we can give you a 2nd rounder and yall can give us two starting olinemen…..you gotta take the deal cause the “Don Pioli” says so….

"Its going to be a challenge, its going to feel like forever, and there will be difficulties. But we will emerge on the other side of it stronger than we were when we entered." ~ Sudden

by Matt_Grbac on Oct 23, 2009 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Want the Don wants the Don gets.

Kinda like Simon says.

Don Pioli says give me two starting linemen for a 2nd rounder.
Ok.
Give me a Tight End.
You didn’t say “Don Pioli says”.

My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Oct 23, 2009 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ryan appears servicable even if we don't want to target the TE with the passing game

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Oct 23, 2009 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

People keep accusing our receivers of not getting open...

I think receivers are always open when you have a good QB who has an incredible working relationship with his receivers. With time Cassel will be getting the ball out quicker.

Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures

by averagegatsby on Oct 23, 2009 4:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

or he needs to learn

You know, one Mississippi, two Mississippi….
and at some point throw it away.
Oh, behind the LOS and way past LOS and out of bounds:)

We Will kick at least 4 Teams Asses in 09
And Succop will be the Key in two of them.
" Think and talk positive football off the field." Hank Stram

by Steve_Chiefs on Oct 23, 2009 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh. "One Mississippi, Two Mississippi" is pretty generous. More like "One"

Lack of protection puts the QB-WR combo under LOTS of pressure. Fact is the WRs aren’t winning enough battles quickly enough. In a situation like this, you need to be able to just BOOM 5 yards, no matter what. Like Pittsburgh does. Hines Ward is NOT an elite athlete playing at WR. He’s just playin’ tough and smart.

But I don’t think Haley wants his QB mixin’ it up with pass rushers, even though that’s exactly the spot he’s put him in. Tomlin just GOES with it, when the run sucks, and lets Big Ben just go with his gut. That’s another reason Ward is effective, even though a lot of his routes don’t create separation until quite late. I think that’s what would have to happen for Cassel-to-Bowe to become dominant. They keep trying to get the ball out quick, because of the line, when maybe they should just roll Cassel out and block the LITTLE guys. Let Cassel at least wear out the big guys, if they’re gonna be beatin’ ’im up, ANYway!

No question. Otis Taylor should be in the Hall of Fame.

by hmills110 on Oct 23, 2009 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It comes with practice...

to expect Cassel to be able to have the ball out that fast with receivers that he hasn’t been playing catch with is a little ridiculous. It takes time, eventually Cassel and the receivers will be more comfortable the ball will come out faster.

Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures

by averagegatsby on Oct 23, 2009 11:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs