The Chiefs Have a Chance at the Playoffs
by Chris Thorman on Oct 22, 2009 7:02 AM CDT
in 2009 Campaign
57 comments
A mathematical chance that is.
Football Outsiders threw a bunch of their stats into a bunch of simulations and poof! out came their playoff odds for Week 7.
| Team | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT |
| DEN | 12.1 | 31.4% | 39.9% | 17.1% | 8.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 97.1% | 71.3% | 2.1% | 99.2% |
| SD | 7.9 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 22.7% | 25.5% |
| KC | 4.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| OAK | 5.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
Mean wins is what FB predicts will be the win total for each team, again based on their football stats.
The numbers on the top row of the table are the chances that each team will get that particular seed in the AFC playoffs. Odds on winning the AFC West, getting a first round bye, nabbing the AFC wild card spot and overall playoff chances follow those.
As you can see, the Kansas City Chiefs have a .8% overall chance of making the playoffs according to FB. Cue Jim Carey line.
Here are a few more interesting stats from FB's playoff odds page:
- FB gives both the Lions and the Bucs zero chance of making the playoffs
- St. Louis comes in with a .2% chance and the Redskins come in at .4%
- The Colts have by far the best chance to get the #1 seed in the AFC - 58.6%
- New Orleans is at 55% chance to get the #1 seed in the NFC
Overall, some pretty interesting stuff.
This got me thinking. There are ten games left. How many do you think the Chiefs are going to win? We haven't done a post like this in a while.
Here is the Chiefs schedule.
My predictions and one-liners on the rest of the schedule are after the jump. Give us yours in the comments.
- San Diego (L) I can't shake Philip Rivers tearing up our secondary from my head.
- @Jacksonville (L) This one could be close but I think the Jaguars have more ability right now.
- @Oakland (W) We have to win this game. Have to.
- Pittsburgh (L) Pittsburgh isn't the team they were last year but they're still far ahead of the Chiefs.
- @San Diego (L) Rivers. Again.
- Denver (W) Here is my homer pick. I do think Denver will have fallen back to earth at this point in the season although I have to hand it to them - they appear legit. The Arrowhead advantage comes into play here.
- Buffalo - (W) I'd like to think that Todd Haley has our team far enough along by Week 15 to compete with a team like the Bills.
- Cleveland (W) Same thing here. Chiefs win three in a row for the first time since 2006.
- @Cincinnati (L) Carson Palmer has looked fairly good this season. The Bengals have surprised people, including myself, which makes me think they could take down the Chiefs.
- @Denver - We're not going to beat the Broncos in Mile High.
If you'd like, cut and paste this into the comments and put a W/L by each game.
San Diego
@Jacksonville
@Oakland
Pittsburgh
@San Diego
Denver
Buffalo
Cleveland
@Cincinnati
@Denver
Make sure you vote in the poll too.
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One thing I've been conisidering the past few days...
…If Denver keeps playing at their current level, by the time we play them for the last game of the regular season, they COULD possibly be resting their starters. Not sure why that last @Denver game isn’t included in the list here?
Not that the fact that we beat Denver’s second string guys means anything (and that’s assuming we COULD beat them, which is arguable right now, really), but it’d be nice to have a win IN Denver for the first time since 2000? 2001?
by jbj8609 on Oct 22, 2009 7:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
For some reason that last line didn’t make the cut and paste from Excel.
Founded Arrowhead Pride 7/26/2006
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by Chris Thorman on Oct 22, 2009 7:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No prob, Chris...
…now for my picks:
(and it’s fair to say, from my experience, whenever I made predictions regarding football, it’s a complete crapshoot. So if any of these cause you to go, “OMFG ur rite!” or “WTF R u CRAZZZY?” – then you’re putting way more stock in these than I am):
San Diego – (W) Reasonably I’d say a loss, but SD is good to blow an easy game or two a year. And Norv Turner has a great record of making every team he coaches get progressively worse, every year he is there. For that reason, I think there’s a decent chance we could steal ONE of the SD games, and I’ll go with this one since it’s at home.
@Jacksonville – (W) Jacksonville looks about as bad as we do, but I will err on the side of the Chiefs. I could see Jones-Drew running all over us, but I could also see Jacksonville assuming that, and it coming back to bite them.
@Oakland – (W) Last time was a fluke. We’ll be a better team by then. We’ll see if they will be too. That’s right, I’m calling a 4-game winning streak for the effing Chiefs. ;)
Pittsburgh – (L) Probably not going to happen. Defense is too much for us to handle. You never know, though.
@San Diego – (L) I’ll give this one SD. They’ll probably win both, but like I said, they’re good for blowing some “gimmes” here & there, and I don’t want to be left out in the dust saying they coulnd’t win it, if they do.
Denver – (L) Unfortunately I think Denver is the real deal. They’ll have likely lost one or two by then, but I do not think we have what it takes to go against that defense right now.
Buffalo – (W) Same as Jacksonville. Buffalo looks as bad as us, but I will err on the side of the Chiefs. Especially since it’s a home game.
Cleveland – (W) Again, same as above. With these, you never know though, because Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville fans are also seeing the Chiefs on their list and thinking “there’s a gimme” too, so who knows?
@Cincinnati – (L) Cincy looks too good this year, and we’ve never fared well against them away from Arrowhead. However, they will be probably in desperate need of a win to reach the playoffs, and that’s when they’re the best at blowing it. For now, though, I say this is another loss for KC.
@Denver – (W) Like I said above, by this time, if Denver is as good as they look now, they might be resting their starters. The possible win won’t mean anything about our team, but we need as many Ws as we can get, so I’ll take it.
So that’s six games we win for a season ending record of 7-9. Probably way too good to be true, but given that many of my predictions won’t come to fruition and we could lost a few of the gimme games, I still see a reason this team could still finish 5-11 which is a vast improvement over last season, and even the season before. I choose to stay positive. :)
by jbj8609 on Oct 22, 2009 7:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think...
your right. 5-11. We lose a gimme, but we win a surprise.
by I_Bleed_Red. on Oct 22, 2009 8:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's got us 7-9.
He’s got six wins there in his list, plus the one we’ve already picked up. That’s 7-9, not 5-11.
by JacinB on Oct 22, 2009 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Saint's have a better chance
of being the #1 seed in the NFC…just over half of one percent doesn’t seem accurate
New Orleans is at .55% chance to get the #1 seed in the NFC
yes, I know it’s a typo ;)
Ryan Succop will be the kicker for the AFC in the 2011 Pro Bowl
by PVChiefsfan on Oct 22, 2009 7:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
Founded Arrowhead Pride 7/26/2006
Please read our community rules, netiquette rules and our technical overview before commenting.
by Chris Thorman on Oct 22, 2009 7:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We are only 3 games out of the wild card with 10 to play.
Supposedly we have faced the most difficult stretch of the season. Let’s win some games.
No, I really don’t think it will happen, but the players and coaches should think it might.
by NJ Chiefs Fan on Oct 22, 2009 7:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's my picks...
San Diego : W
@Jacksonville : W
@Oakland : W
Pittsburgh : L*
@San Diego : L
Denver : W
Buffalo : W
Cleveland : W
@Cincinnati : L
@Denver : L
We should have plenty of time to prepare for Jacksonville,and give Oakland some pay back.If Pittsburgh is beat up we can win that one too…Time to start winning at home. That puts us at 7-9, good for second place in the division.That will go a long way in helping get us in the playoffs next year.
by idahochieffan on Oct 22, 2009 8:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
And if...
Denver loses out and SD only wins against Denver again and if the Raiders don’t win anymore games…AFC West Champions!!!
by I_Bleed_Red. on Oct 22, 2009 8:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
SO YOU'RE SAYIN THERE'S A CHANCE
sorry, couldn’t resist it
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
by sm7600 on Oct 22, 2009 8:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
So You're Tellin' Me There's a Chance....
What a great movie..one of my faves
by Ryan in Nixa on Oct 22, 2009 8:16 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
call me crazy...
but the way I read the graph, it gives KC a .8% chance not .3%. Am I reading it wrong?
Proud resident of Kansas City MO
by TigerChief on Oct 22, 2009 8:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Kinda looking like Oakland/KC are either swapped or Chris got a little confused when he was writing the post.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
by KaloPhoenix on Oct 22, 2009 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks guys
One of those mornings….
Founded Arrowhead Pride 7/26/2006
Please read our community rules, netiquette rules and our technical overview before commenting.
by Chris Thorman on Oct 22, 2009 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
my picks.
San Diego—W
@Jacksonville—W
@Oakland—W
Pittsburgh—L
@San Diego—L
Denver—L
Buffalo—W
Cleveland—W
@Cincinnati—W
@Denver—W
That’s 8-8 boys! lol looking like a true Chargers team…Wait.
The Chiefs were actually good the last time Kenny Smith has played in a game. Gives you an idea of how long ago that was. lol
by Chiefsfan85 on Oct 22, 2009 8:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
heres mine...
San Diego W
@Jacksonville W
@Oakland W
Pittsburgh L
@San Diego L
Denver W
Buffalo W
Cleveland W
@Cincinnati L
@Denver L
7-9 Id be really happy with this finish. I think we could pull off the game against the Bengals and pull off an extra win against the Donkeys or Bolts
by tomahawk44 on Oct 22, 2009 8:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
5-11 Here are the wins
San Diego at home
@Oakland
Buffalo at Home
Cleveland at Home
by Ryan in Nixa on Oct 22, 2009 8:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts exactly
It's a good thing Pioli and Haley aren't running AP or a lot of you guys would of been traded or cut for cast offs from the Pats Pulpit.
by KCporkchop on Oct 22, 2009 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
poll should go to 11
Blame my wife!
Waiting until August 2010
by sir eccles on Oct 22, 2009 8:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Okay, I've been called an optimist and a kool aid drinker at times,
but even I think its crazy to predict this team to be above 500 the rest of the way. We are getting better, I just still think we will lose more then we win. I think we’ll go 4-6 the rest of the way. That’s still improvement we can build on going into next year. I LOVE the Chiefs as much as anybody, but thinking this team can go 7-3 down the stretch is madness.
It's a good thing Pioli and Haley aren't running AP or a lot of you guys would of been traded or cut for cast offs from the Pats Pulpit.
by KCporkchop on Oct 22, 2009 8:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely
I’m even a bit weary about picking us over the Chargers right now. QB’s that take care of the ball, quick RB’s, and solid pass catching TE’s are our bane right now…and they happen to have all three of those most Sundays.
I think our “maybe” is @Jacksonville. I believe that if we win there, we’ll win @Oakland and beat Cleveland and Buffalo at home for a 5-11 record. Trust me, I’ll cheer us on as if I expect an 11-5 record out of this team, but the realist in me is just looking for improvement.
"I don't know if I want to go to New York. They'll have to pay me a lot more money because I like it here in Kansas City." -- Roger Maris
by KaloPhoenix on Oct 22, 2009 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
PLAYOFF'S!
playoff’s… don’t talk about playoff’s….. playoff’s.
by choirboy on Oct 22, 2009 9:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
go chiefs
San Diego L
@Jacksonville L
@Oakland W
Pittsburgh L
@San Diego L
Denver W
Buffalo W
Cleveland W
@Cincinnati W
@Denver
by jd2009 on Oct 22, 2009 9:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think some of you are on the souce
This team is getting better, period. This team is not a contender, period. 4 more wins at the most for these Chiefs and it will probably be more like 3 more wins.
Lets see…we need 2 o-line, a blocking TE, a WR, a NT, a ILB, a Safety…and we are thinking we are going to go on a winning binge, come on.
Ok…my pessimistic swing is over.
Bewsaf
by Bewsaf on Oct 22, 2009 9:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You do NOT play for draft position.
You play. To win. The game.
by JacinB on Oct 22, 2009 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Improvement...
That’s the name of the game right now. The thing I have noticed from this team is SIGNIFICANT improvement every week. It’s pretty encouraging but, I am still hoping to see the offense start showing some signs of life. The defense and special teams have been SOLID but, the offense has a LOT of work to do. Maybe they will turn a corner this weekend at home.
I don’t want to predict what will happen the rest of the season but, I DO think the Chiefs are going to win this week. San Diego is reeling right now and I think we are the kind of team that will take advantage of that. Our secondary has played VERY well against Philip Rivers and I think our pass rush can do more to frustrate him than we were able to do last year. BIG win for the Chiefs this Sunday.
by Chiefsfan1970 on Oct 22, 2009 9:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like your post, but...
we have trouble with TEs and San Diego has a great one. Look for their TE to have a monster day. In regard to our pressure…I think Denver’s pressure from their front 3 is a lot better than ours and their LBs look like they blitz a little better than ours…so…I don’t see San Diego having any more problem with us than they did with Denver.
I see a loss.
I guess my pessimistic swing is not over.
Bewsaf
by Bewsaf on Oct 22, 2009 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we have done a DECENT job containing TEs the last few weeks...
Todd Heap KILLED us in week one but, we shut down Zach Miller and didn’t allow Whitten to do too much either. I don’t see Gates giving us too many problems as long as we can get pressure on Rivers.
by Chiefsfan1970 on Oct 22, 2009 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zach Miller?
Do you mean Chris Cooley? I think Miller plays for the Jags. Anyway, you are right…the last 2 weeks the DEs did not have a monster stat day on us. Although I think the Cowboys QB overthrew Whitten a couple of times.
I put Heap and Gates on a different level though…but I hope you are right.
Go Chiefs!
Bewsaf
by Bewsaf on Oct 22, 2009 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
He means Zach Miller. The TE in Oakland who had 139 receiving yards against Philly’s ‘staunch’ defence.
by JacinB on Oct 22, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But, for that matter ...
We shut Cooley down pretty well, too.
That’s 3 good TEs that didn’t have outstanding days against us, despite our supposed ‘weakness’ in covering them.
by JacinB on Oct 22, 2009 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted 3
And I hope we only win 4 for sake of the draft. I know everyone wants to win RIGHT NOW, and a surprise playoff berth would be awesome, I just don’t see that boding well for our future. I’d rather have one more grueling season and make a splash in the off-season. We are improving, but if we manage to go 8-8, I don’t think there’s anyone that would disagree that that 8-8 team does not have 8-8 talent on it, if that makes sense. I’d rather see what Pioli can do from scratch.
by jk86 on Oct 22, 2009 9:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
you only want us to win one more game? BOOOOOO
You root for your team to win as many as possible not to lose for the draft
by tomahawk44 on Oct 22, 2009 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No way
If they win one more game they will be lucky. what we going to do thats any different. hell we are already playing street ball. this season is not over but 1 win will not make this team any better. I would love to see them win the rest of their games. what will the NFL do start a streetbowl
by Charles # 1 chiefs fan on Oct 22, 2009 9:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
We'll win 4 more at best...and I'll be happy with that
Let’s face it…we completely failed to get the ball into the end zone against Washington!
I ask for very little out of the Chiefs this season:
1. Play hard and smart every game
2. Be competitive even in the losses
3. Get better with each week (regardless of W or L)
4. Win a few along the way
So far, 4 of the 6 games have met at least 3 of those expectations.
Buffalo, Cleveland, and Oakland are wins and I think we’ll sneak one more out after the bye. Sunday’s performance against SD will serve as a pretty decent indicator for how we will do during the soft end of the season.
by RrustyDawg on Oct 22, 2009 10:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You realize that Washington has the number 5 D right?
by tomahawk44 on Oct 22, 2009 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Also, I think the best indicator of the team progress will come after the bye. The offense will have extra time to practice and we will see a healthy team who should pretty well have it’s shit together by then. I don’t foresee as much weekly improvement then as we are seeing now and I think by then it will be a “what you see is what you get kind of a thing”
I REALLY hope the offense can get it together in the next couple weeks. Can a brutha get a touchdown???
by Chiefsfan1970 on Oct 22, 2009 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Minus the Giants,
the highest ranked Offense they have face is the Detroit Lions at #24. I think their defensive rank is more a reflection of the teams they have played rather than of their prowess.
by NJ Chiefs Fan on Oct 22, 2009 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn Raiders
That Oakland game is going to haunt us all season. If we had won that, we’d probably still have like a 15% shot at the wild card. Which isn’t great and is unlikely to happen, but it’d be a lot more fun than basically no shot.
Also, with a win under our belts, maybe we would have had enough confidence to pull out the Dallas game.
No matter what happens the rest of the way, that win we should have had is going to sting.
by Offense of the 70s on Oct 22, 2009 10:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Also going with 5-11
we have some games that we could win but I think we’ll drop some that we shouldn’t as well.
"The spirit, the will to win, and the will to excel are the things that endure. These qualities are so much more important than the events that occur." - Vince Lombardi
by Shawn on Oct 22, 2009 11:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
call me a homer but ...
i think we should be 3-3 and had the potential to be 4-2. The loss against the faiders and the cowgirls is due to this team still learning how to win. I believe last week we turned the corner in that department and I’m hoping we now have a team that will wn games it should have won.
The ravens games is another level of competitiveness we haven’t reached. I don’t see our team with the current talent level being at that level yet. Bu I have the feeling we will be there by next year.
This in mind and taking into consideration that we turned the corner againts the skins, I believe we will win 4 to 6 more games. Realistacally, i only see Pitsburgh as a team playing at the same level than the ravens/giants while Denver/SD/Cincy are more like the Cowgirls.
So lets call it an 9-7 seasons … yes i’m a homer!!!!! Go Chiefs!!!!
By the way, I’m not sold on the broncos … imagine if they weren’t lucky against Cincy … it might have been a total different season. I don’t think they have the guts to properly handle a loss and lets not forget what happened last year … they started 6-2 and finished 8-8 …
by OneChiefs on Oct 22, 2009 12:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
So your saying there's a chance?
Time is a great teacher... unfortunately it kills all it's pupils.
by 808NaNz808 on Oct 22, 2009 1:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My Thoughts?
San Diego: W – Kick ‘em while they’re down and don’t let ‘em up.
@Jacksonville W – Garrard is too inconsistent and our main focus need stay on MJD. Shut him down, win the game.
@Oakland W – Revenge is a beautiful thing.
Pittsburgh L – Too stout of a “D” and their offense cannot be stopped if Big Ben gets time.
@San Diego W – That’s right, we beat them on their home turf too. They’ll have pretty much derailed by this point and not even care anymore. Merriman is nothing without roids, Norv sucks as a HC, LT is washed up, and Sproles is not an every down back.
Denver L -They are too strong to contend with, maybe next year.
Buffalo W – TO is sad, but not as sad as their whole team.
Cleveland W -I don’t need to even explain this one…
@Cincinnati W – My surprise pick. I am betting by this point in the season, old man Palmer will be injured again and we’ll take advantage.
@Denver L – They’ll own us in Denver. I know, we lose twice to these bums, but we’ll definitely avenge ourselves next season.
All in all, our record improves to 8-8. Yup, I’m a homer. However, it all hangs in the balance of this Sunday’s game. If we don’t win, then none of the above happens. We must win Sunday in order to maintain the balance and appease the football Gods…
Put this in your pipe and smoke it:
1. Chiefs will be at least 8-8 and vie for division champs
2. DJ will break out and finally have his year
3. LJ returns to form
4. DBowe drops will reduce
by kcchiefsfan72 on Oct 22, 2009 2:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My picks are as follows...
San Diego L
@Jacksonville W
@Oakland W
Pittsburgh L
@San Diego L
Denver W
Buffalo W
Cleveland W
@Cincinnati W
@Denver L
So I’d say 7-9 is possible, but honestly not probable. I do think that first win got the monkey off the back of this team and the schedule gets much easier as well. So they should certainly get a couple of W’s and should have a pretty big improvement over the last two seasons.
by 5280ChiefsFan on Oct 22, 2009 4:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
10w-6L
…and I’m sticking to it untill we loose…
by 12t on Oct 22, 2009 4:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
7-9. The train has left the station and is rolling along boys
San Diego – W
@Jacksonville – W
@Oakland – W
Pittsburgh – L
@San Diego – L
Denver – W
Buffalo – W
Cleveland – W
@Cincinnati – W
@Denver – L
by Throw Up The X on Oct 22, 2009 6:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
make that 8-8
can someone say AFC West Champs by tiebreaker???
by Throw Up The X on Oct 22, 2009 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see...
Denver only winning 2 more games this year.
by 5280ChiefsFan on Oct 23, 2009 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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