Chiefs Fantasy Outlook: Week Six vs Washington Redskins

by mushin on Oct 14, 2009 7:44 AM CDT Comment 16 comments

Predictions from Week Five can be found here The predicted numbers and the actual numbers for last week can be found at the end of this article.

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Last weeks game was gut wrenching from me to watch. The offense looked horrible for three and a half quarters. The defense had great moments followed by DOH!!!!! I felt the urge to turn off the TV during ever 1st down. A few KC players still managed to have a good fantasy day based on one drive late in the 4th quarter. In lieu of an actual KC win, I'll take that as a victory.

But as the Chiefs giveth, so they taketh away. LJ is officially a fantasy football team killer. He has value for what he has done in the past and RB's are hard to find. But for the first 5 weeks of the LJ has been less than useless. He's holding a spot on the bench hostage based on 2005. If LJ doesn't show something this weekend it may be time to think about picking up that kicker you've been eyeing on the waiver wire and dropping LJ to do it.

3 Chiefs and a Sleeper for week 6 after the break:

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KC Defense / Special Teams

The Chiefs offense is ranked 24th in rushing. The Redskins are ranked 25th. The game on Sunday has the potential to be this year's "Offensive Futility Bowl". Where there is mediocrity, there is opportunity. If the Chiefs can shut down Marion Barber, they should be able to shut down a petulant Clinton Portis. Jason Campbell is struggling as well, averaging one interception and 2.6 sacks per game. If the Chiefs can stop an unhearlded WR from turning in a pro bowl performance, the D should be solid this week.

KC Defense / ST prediction: 300 yards, 0 TD, 1 int, 1 fumble, 2 sacks

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Matt Cassel

The Redskins are having issues with moving the ball and stopping the run, but on paper it looks like they are a good passing defense. Teams are averaging just 171 yards per game through the air against Washington. But this stat is misleading. The Skins secondary has shown a tendency to get torched, especially DeAngelo Hall. Cassel is becoming the 4th quarter kid for KC. 130 yards of Cassel's 253 yards came in the 4th quarter. Could this bode well for Cassel? Maybe. Cassel has solidified himself as a Fantasy Backup in the box scores, but it's scary as hell to put him in a fantasy game after watching him struggle for the first 3 quarters of every game.

Matt Cassel Predicition: 225 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int

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Dwayne Bowe

5 receptions, 74 yards, 1 TD ?!?!?! Is Bowe back??!?!?! I certainly hope so. It looked, for one quarter anyway, like Cassel and Bowe are getting on the same page. Dwayne was running down the field with authority and using his size and strength to yank the ball out of the air. I got all misty. The box score stats show that Cassel targeted Dwayne 10 times. I don't remember that many passes Bowe's way, but even if it was only 6 times, It's about damn time. D-Bowe still remains the only Chiefs player that can be considered a front line fantasy starter. It's time to get him back in your lineup. And if you can find somebody who has been disappointed with D-Bowe so far, trade for him now. His value is only going to increase.

Dwayne Bowe Prediction: 6 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD

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KC Fantasy Sleeper

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Jamaal Charles

He didn't fumble last week and he was by far the most effective KC running back on the field last Sunday. Haley has to be rooting for Charles to hold onto the ball. The job is there to be taken from LJ. Savage and Battle aren't going to do it. If Charles can increase his workload by holding onto the ball and not piss off Haley he will become a flex RB in fantasy. Keep an eye on his number of carries. Last week he had 3. If this number starts to increase you might want to nab him if you are desperate for a running back.

Jamaal Charles prediction: 6 carries, 40 yards, 6 receptions 40 yards, 0 TD's

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kudos to redmicone for calling the 2 TD's by Cassel last week.

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Mushin's Week 5 Predictions:

-Matt Cassel

Matt Cassel prediction: 275 yards, 1 TD, 0 int

Actual Numbers: 253 yards, 2 TD, 0 int

-Larry Johnson (AKA the stomach turning prediciton)

Larry Johnson prediction: 105 yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 20 yards receiving

Actual Numbers: 37 yads, 0 TD, 1 reception, 9 yards

-Ryan Succop

Ryan Succop prediction: 2 FG's, 2 EP

Actual Numbers: 2 FG, 2 EP, one blocked FG

-Sean Ryan

Sean Ryan prediction: 6 receptions, 65 yards, 0 TD's

Actual Numbers: 2 recpetions, 27 yards, 0 TD's

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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Comments

How about Bobby Wade?

Cry Havoc! And let slip the Chiefs Defense of War!!!

by nateforchiefs on Oct 14, 2009 8:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

be nice if cassel would look for him more to get a few yards to keep the chains movin

Check out the gun show over here FIYA POWA

by redmedicone on Oct 14, 2009 8:35 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

He had 8 targets for the game, 26 for the year

He’s only started 5 games and is rotating with Mark Bradley, and still gets the targets that a dedicated WR2 would get on any other team.

Actually, on our team he has more looks than even Bowe. He has 24. Colston for the Saints has 27.

Cassel just needs a lil more time during his dropbacks, and some semblance of a pocket to step into, and all those missed targets become first downs.

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius, in contrary to Glenn Dorsey lining up in the 2-tech

by ArrowSpread on Oct 14, 2009 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't really trust the "target stats" but you make a good argument

Those numbers are getting pumped when Cassel is throwing it away, and god knows he’s doing that often enough.

I don’t know if time is all it is either. Wade has always been a sold WR, but never a spectacular one. The knock on Minn ever since Moss and Carter left is that their WR corp is just not good enough. They certainly spent enough draft picks trying to fix it. (Rice, Williamson, Harvin, not to mention Berrian).

Wade has lots of opportunity to establish himself as a solid number 2 and he wasn’t able to do it on a team with a good running game to let off some pressure.

Wade seems like a great role player WR, not a true number two. Especially on a team that can’t run the ball, spread the field or protect the QB.

He will have a big game every now and then, and I love the TD’s, but he just isn’t getting enough consistent production to make a starter on a fantasy team

by mushin on Oct 14, 2009 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

Wade has always been a sol(i)d WR, but never a spectacular one.

Wade has lots of opportunity to establish himself as a solid number 2 and he wasn’t able to do it on a team with a good running game to let off some pressure.

Well, which is it? Is he solid or isn’t he?

I agree, he is a solid #2, and that’s really all you can ask for. Someone that will consistently come in and do his job, which I thought he did in Minnesota. Their issue was they haven’t had the QB to make ANY WR look more than solid.

He still managed 54 / 647 / 3 and 53 / 645 / 2 in 2007/8 on a very run-heavy team with a terrible QB in Tarvaris Jackson.

That said, on a team that can’t run the ball to save their lives — such as ours — those numbers need to increase a bit before we can call him productive in OUR system, whatever that is.

And just now seeing the drops you posted below, Mark Bradley with his 23 targets has 13 receptions and zero drops. Are we to start seeing him on the field more than Wade? I think he should. He has more potential to become the true WR2 that you say than Wade, if he can figure out how to get past that damn first down marker…

(sorry bout that lil fip-flopper jab earlier. doh! there was another)

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius, in contrary to Glenn Dorsey lining up in the 2-tech

by ArrowSpread on Oct 14, 2009 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clarification: Solid rotational WR, average to below average #2 WR

Wade is a solid possession receiver, but he doesn’t have a good enough YAC average (3.6 yds this year, 4.0 over his career) to be a number 2.

I like him, but he doesn’t help stretch the field, which is the story of every KC WR since Kennison left.

I think Bradley fits the bill as a #2, but he can’t stay healthy or out of the dog house, or whatever it is that keeps happening. And the fact that Cassel is on the “Half-step Drop” offensive plan doesn’t help either.

by mushin on Oct 14, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He keeps burning me

He seems to sniff out the endzone, but his receptions per game stink

by mushin on Oct 14, 2009 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To contrast...

D-Bowe 2008 Thru 5 wks – 56 targets, 27 rec – 48%

D-Bowe 2009 – Thru 5 wks – 24 targets, 15 rec – 63%

Who’s below him? How about Driver, Boldin, Moss.. possession receiver Housh, to name a few.

“Don’t count your reps, make your reps count.”

Has Haley’s treatment of Bowe paid off, perhaps?

Anyone know where you can find the stats for number of drops? I’d be curious to where he’s at there as well.

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius, in contrary to Glenn Dorsey lining up in the 2-tech

by ArrowSpread on Oct 14, 2009 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Found these stats at the Washington Post

NFL Leaders: Pass Dropped (Thru Oct. 12, 2009)

Rank Player Team Drops
1t Michael Clayton TB 5
1t Santonio Holmes Pit 5
1t Robert Royal Cle 5
4t Daniel Coats Cin 4
4t Randy McMichael StL 4
4t Louis Murphy Oak 4
4t Terrell Owens Buf 4
4t Bobby Wade KC 4
9t Cedric Benson Cin 3
9t Laveranues Coles Cin 3
9t Vernon Davis SF 3
9t Julian Edelman NE 3
9t Justin Gage Ten 3
9t Jerome Harrison Cle 3
9t Percy Harvin Min 3
9t Steven Jackson StL 3
9t Andre Johnson Hou 3
9t James Jones GB 3
9t Marcedes Lewis Jac 3
9t Mario Manningham NYG 3
9t Jordy Nelson GB 3
9t Chad Ochocinco Cin 3
9t Sean Ryan KC 3
9t Steve Smith Car 3
9t Chansi Stuckey Cle 3
9t Nate Washington Ten 3
9t Reggie Wayne Ind 3
9t Roddy White Atl 3
9t Kellen Winslow TB 3

Bowe doesn’t even make the list

by mushin on Oct 14, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure

that I remember 3 from just the last 2 games.

by ttownmikey on Oct 14, 2009 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, Bobby Wade as at 54% for the season

26 targets, 14 receptions

"The first step to penetration... must not be lateral"
-Confucius, in contrary to Glenn Dorsey lining up in the 2-tech

by ArrowSpread on Oct 14, 2009 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks for the kudos

And I still say if cassel will manage the yards your sayin he will get more then one TD …… And I’m gonna say we finally get a huge run outta charles for a TD

Check out the gun show over here FIYA POWA

by redmedicone on Oct 14, 2009 8:33 AM CDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs