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Assessing the Free Agent Market

From the FanPosts. A nice, lazy Saturday morning read. -Chris

After reading a series of blog posts about some of the high priced free agents, particularly on defense, I thought it might be helpful to do a run down by position. Here are the assumptions:

1) Not all of these are position of need. However, in some cases, the value is really high for the position.

2) I try to focus on good system fits. As such, 3-4 DEs and OLBs are largely ignored.

3) Most of our free agent additions will not be stars. At best, we will likely get one big signings. So, I focus a lot of my energy on b-level free agents (though the big names still appear).

4) Most of these people will not hit the market. I cover much more than necessary.

5) I really do not cover older prospects, in line with the Chiefs FA philosophy from last year.

6) With our GM situation, nobody knows what we will do. I assume no major coaching or scheme changes at this time.

Here's the list:

Star-divide

QB -- In the FA market, we are probably looking for a #2 guy.

Matt Cassel (NE): The free agent gem of the year. I'm not sold on him. He will cost starter money. I think we should take a pass.

Kyle Boller (BAL): Needs a new start. Does not fit the spread, if we stay with that. Looks like a second or third string guy right now.

J.P. Losman (BUF): Has not looked that good this year. Has starting experience, so he can be a decent backup. Does not fit the spread. Can be had for decent money.

Byron Leftwich (PIT): This one is interesting. Has looked good in limited relief. Pittsburgh might try to resign. Might get a look for another starting job. His tools could fit well in our offense. I like this possibility.

Derek Anderson (CLE): Not a FA, but is paid too much to be a backup. Could be dumped with the new GM. Has potential, and might get a look at a starting job, but a good backup. Not necessarily a fit for the spread.

We probably need some experience at this position, and I do not see Huard coming back. At the same time, I really am concerned about overpaying at this position. I might rather just go young and draft another spread system QB in the middle rounds.

RB -- Depending on Larry, we might be in the market for a big back.

Brandon Jacobs (NYG): Fits the bill, but I doubt he hits the market.

Darren Sproles (SD): An excellent player, but we already have a change of pace back that is quick and elusive. Getting him would be giving up on Charles.

Correll Buckhalter (PHI): Has not got much of an opportunity and has had injury issues, but is getting some good opportunities lately. Becomes a big change of pace to Westborok, and fits a West Coast passing system. Might work well in the spread. This is an interesting possibility and he might be a good budget replacement for LJ short term.

There are more RBs, but most are retreads. If we trade LJ, then the best prospects are in the draft.

WR -- Need another complementary receiver, but could use a dominant speedster.

Antonio Bryant (TB): Finally playing up to his abilities. Likely will be resigned. Will cost some green, given his year.

Michael Clayton (TB): He has underachieved, so I think they might let him walk. Can get him on a "prove it" contract, and has a lot of talent. Tough to guage the price of his services, but might have the "Bradley effect" in another city.

T.J. Housh... (CIN): A little old, but a dominant slot guy. We probably won't even get to sniff him, but hey, we can dream. Works well in a spread out offense.

Again, this position might be best addressed in the draft.

OT -- We need a right tackle, but we can take a left too and move Albert.

Jordan Gross (CAR): Can play right or left. Great tackle. Will cost a lot of coin. Likely will be resigned.

Stacy Andrews (CIN): Good guard or tackle on right side, but not dominant. Just got injured with ACL, so likely not ready at the start of next season.

Vernon Carey (MIA): The tackle that we should have got instead of D-Mac. Can play left, but better on the right. Young and has a lot of starting experience. Miami has had good protection and run blocking, so this guy could be a nice addition. They will try to resign him.

Khalif Barnes (JAC): Has played left tackle, but really does not have the skills for the position. Huge guy, so could make a nice right tackle. We have a shot at this guy, and has an intriguing skill set to be a run blocker.

Elton Brown (ARI): A reserve lineman on a decent line. Has the size to be a good right tackle. Will likely be a mid-level prospect allowed to walk. We might get him on the cheap.

All in all, this position seems like an interesting position. With the draft being deep at tackle, I think some teams might let decent players walk for draft prospects, making it one of the more likely places to get a good FA signing.

OG -- Need one bad.

Chris Kemoeatu (PIT): Decent, with some starting experience. Pitt might keep him. Not a dominant prospect.

Most of the other guards are over 30. This is a position to get in the draft.

OC --We have Niswanger, but an upgrade would be good.

Jason Brown (BAL): Excellent player. Baltimore will try really hard to resign him.

Other prospects are older, and many of them are now backups. Again, the draft is where we can get a starter.

DE -- If we do not get one, 2009 will be a waste.

Julius Peppers (CAR): I want him. He likely will be resigned. If not, we will be in a 10 team bidding war for him. Will cost as much as Allen, but not as much production.

Terrell Suggs (BAL): One of the Raven defenders will shake loose, and it will either be him or Scott. Great player. May not be a great scheme fit. Will cost some serious coin.

There are other players, but they are not worth talking about. We have lots of rotational DEs; a dominant one will make a big difference. We are going to have to pay for this position, either in the draft or in FA. The draft is a crapshoot, but I do not know if we will even get an opportunity to look at the FA market.

DT -- We actually have a decent rotaion, but could use a dominant player.

Albert Haynesworth (TEN): Great player. Will cost a ton, but worth it. I think we will try, but will not even get a sniff at him. He's a life-long Titan, in my opinion.

The other DTs are no better than what we got. We could draft one, but I bet we stay put. A hard position to develop.

LB -- We need 2 of these. I lump them together, since we don't know right now whether we need outside or inside.

Leroy Hill (SEA): Has good stats, and plays a 4-3. Is an outside backer, but has the size to play inside for us. Likely to be resigned, methinks.

Jonathan Vilma (NO): If the Saints let him go after paying for him in draft picks, then they deserve to lose. If he hits the open market, I think we are the likely destination. Had great years under Herm, but has had some injuries lately. Solves the MLB problem, and won't totally break the bank. Perfect scheme fit.

Bart Scott (BAL): The most likely Raven to be looking for another job. Big, likes to hit, and can play pass coverage. Will bring an attitude to the defense that we really need. May not be the best scheme fit, but given the state of our LBs, he might be the best prospect for us. Worth the risk and the paycheck!

Michael Boley (ATL): They will probably resign him. Good, but not dominant. Better prospect than Demorrio last year.

Angelo Crowell (BUF): Has not played this year due to injury. Numbers have been good. A little large for our system, so might be a SLB.

Lots of others out there, but I don't know them as well. You can always find decent LBs on the market. We need a starter in FA and another in the draft.

CB -- Really, we have a lot of good, young guys. We need some experience if we dump Surtain, but otherwise, we can overlook this position.

N. Asomugha (OAK): If this guy is allowed to walk it will be a total tragedy. Great man player. Will cost a lot. However, when you have the opportunity to get a player like this in their prime, you got to make a run at them.

Dunta Robinson (HOU): Was injured, so has not played a whole year. Really solid corner. Houston will likely resign him. Will get as much as Asomugha, but not as good of a corner. However, still worth a shot.

Jabari Greer (BUF): Good stats, and could be odd man out in Buffalo. Would be a great nickel addition.

Deangelo Hall (WAS): Washington will likely keep him. Totally overrated and will cost more than he is worth. But he would be a good nickle upgrade.

Some good players, but they will likley command more money than the position is worth to us. This a position that you draft in the mid-to-late rounds for a nickel or dime guy.

S -- Some good players exist. However, we have a full compliment and a lot tied up at that position. No FA or draft at the position.

Conclusions: Let's be honest. The Chiefs have too many holes to fill in one year. We will only get one or two starting caliber players in the draft, and perhaps one or two in free agency. To fill the rest, we have to hope that some of the other players already on the roster develop.

As far as upgrading the roster, it seems to me that OT, LB and backup QB will be the best targets in free agency. To get defensive line help, we will likley need to go to the draft. Interior offensive line will also have to come from the draft. In addition, we need another LB and CB from the draft. The WR positon could be addressed in free agency, but probably the best prospects will be in the draft.

If we can get a right tackle and one starting linebacker, which I think are positions of value in free agency this year, then we would really put ourselves in a good position to draft BPA and to improve our record next year.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

2 recs  |  Comment 34 comments |

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QB to consider

troy smith out of baltimore. the only reason he never got to start this years is because of his ailment. that forced the ravens to play flacco and the team started rolling. may be cheap to get but has never really proven anything at the pro lever…….yet.

by chiefs8288 on Jan 3, 2009 1:54 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Not on the Radar

He has only two years of service, which means he will not be a free agent. Baltimore has certain packages in which they use him, do he will not be cut. In fact, they thought he was good enough to be the starter, but he got injured in the preseason and Flacco had to play.

by bas on Jan 3, 2009 7:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

sweet post man good job my num 1 guy is vilma the saints have to give up a r1 so hopefully he walks everyone knows de le qb rt rg c need somthin done get lb nd rt in freeagency mayb de end too then win the draft again ndwere lookn good get orakpo alex mack nd graham harrell best offseason ever

by NakedDave on Jan 3, 2009 2:00 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I too like Vilma

Vilma would be really nice, and a great fit. Probably would not break the bank either. However, I think it is less than 50-50 that he hits the free agent market. Unless the Saints don’t think he’s a scheme fit, it would be really boneheaded to let him walk after paying mid round draft picks in a year they did not perform well.

I also think Bart Scott might be the best addition for us because of the needed attitude change on defense. He is a little older (29), but would provide the type of instant leadership that the defense needs. You would not get that with another free agent on the LB list or a draft pick, due to their young age. I think it is a better than 50 percent chance that he is allowed to hit the open market. Might be a tough catch, since 3-4 teams will also look at him.

by bas on Jan 3, 2009 7:55 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Really like Bart Scott

Especially after watching that game just finish against the Dolphins. That D is ridiculous and both Scott and Suggs are some heavy hitters. The age thing is a factor, but I think his performance and attitude make him an acceptable target to go after.

by Chiefs n Chopper on Jan 4, 2009 3:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow this is really good bas

However, there’s a report out there that Cassel will be franchised this year :)

In a hurry now, be back to comment on the rest.

by Joel Thorman on Jan 3, 2009 8:42 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

very good post

We need a future defensive leader, his name is James Laurinaitis and he can be selected in round 1 of the upcoming Draft.

"But what do I know, I’m like an empty room with a large ECHO"

by Lanier63 on Jan 3, 2009 8:51 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Cassel

Will not only be paid starter money but will likely be franchised and will require a trade. Not worth it…we’re better off drafting someone.

Assuming our team’s owner ever gets us a GM.

Herm Edwards will not be the Chiefs' head coach next season.

by UCrawford on Jan 3, 2009 9:12 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Quick question UC

Did you get my test email? We’ve had issues getting in touch with you.

by Chris Thorman on Jan 3, 2009 9:33 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I Get Them From You Periodically

But I don’t know if you’ve got my test e-mail. If I haven’t received it I’ll give you an alternate contact.

Herm Edwards will not be the Chiefs' head coach next season.

by UCrawford on Jan 3, 2009 9:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yup

Got it.

Herm Edwards will not be the Chiefs' head coach next season.

by UCrawford on Jan 3, 2009 9:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

uh oh DJ

They are planning an end around on us. Watch the backside and contain! :)

We need a future defensive leader, his name is James Laurinaitis and he can be selected in round 1 of the upcoming Draft.

"But what do I know, I’m like an empty room with a large ECHO"

by Lanier63 on Jan 3, 2009 1:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Haynesworth

The thing about Haynesworth….I’m just afraid he won’t be the same player. His play elevated significantly this year and last. Both contract years.

by Joel Thorman on Jan 3, 2009 10:02 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

What Worries Me More About Haynesworth

Is that he rarely makes it through a full season without getting hurt. He’s missed a lot of games over his career…that’s likely going to get worse as he gets older.

Herm Edwards will not be the Chiefs' head coach next season.

by UCrawford on Jan 3, 2009 10:49 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rarely... try never

He has never played a full 16 game season as a starter. One season he missed time due to suspension (maybe two)… the rest were injury.

Primetime is right, he has really put it on the last two years – which have been his best two by far. There used to be talk around here that the Titans made the wrong pick in taking Haynesworth and should have taken his teammate – John Henderson (Jax).

by Ochophosphate on Jan 3, 2009 11:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

A couple of things that you said stood out to me

Regarding Peppers:

Will cost as much as Allen, but not as much production.

I agree with that, so as good as he can be, he doesn’t seem worth the cash.

And Asomugha:

when you have the opportunity to get a player like this in their prime, you got to make a run at them.

What a statement. I hadn’t thought about that with the stellar play of Flowers and Carr this year, but I think this is something that should be considered. He is a big, physical CB who has a ton of football left and I am sure he wants out of Oakland. Depending on what he costs, he would be a great addition to our young team. As always, we should always be looking to upgrade our team even if we have talent there.

Of the two mentioned, DE is obviously a more important position to be upgraded. I wonder how aggresive our new GM will be in going after big name free agents?

by TheQ on Jan 3, 2009 5:23 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

WR and LB not on list

Anquan Boldin and Karlos Dansby. Both players are worth a look.

As for another corner…Does it really matter who is back there if we can’t even pressure the QB?

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Jan 3, 2009 6:25 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Reasons

Boldin is not a free agent. He won’t be cut, so you will have to trade for him. Way too much value here.

Dansby is a tough one. Great player, but he plays in a 3-4, which makes him not a scheme match. He is really large for a 4-3 LB, though he does have really good athleticism. He plays outside, or at least rotates outside on the play, so I chose to leave him off. I’m afraid of the K. Bell effect in scheme change. Bart Scoot plays inside and has proven he can play coverage. Dansby I don’t know enough about.

Worth the conversation, but I do not know what to do with some of the LBs.

by bas on Jan 4, 2009 12:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought

Arizona ran a 4-3?

by dragon6172 on Jan 4, 2009 10:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ah, my bad!

I should pay more attention. They do run a 4-3. I thought they were in a 3-4 last year, which is why they drafted Branch and had Calvin Pace.

Well, then just ignore what I said about him. Could be a good fit.

by bas on Jan 4, 2009 11:03 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My mistake

Boldin wanted out of AZ. I was thinking he is a free agent. I would sign Devry Henderson though. He won’t cost to much and he is a legit deep threat.

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Jan 4, 2009 1:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Good wrap up

Isn’t RB Derrick Ward a free agent? I thought I read he was. He should be in high demand, so perhaps his price tag will be too expensive, but he has a great YPC. And he went to school at nearby Ottawa I believe, whatever that’s worth.

Also, don’t offensive guards age pretty well? I wouldn’t dismiss the over 30 crowd. I’ve always liked Mike Goff of the Chargers, who I believe is a FA.

I will also echo Dansby, always been a fan of his since his collegiate days.

Is there an accurate list of potential FAs anyone can link to?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 3, 2009 7:14 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Draft Daddy

They have a list of free agents, RFAs, and contract status. They also have a really nice draft news blog that really covers some low-rent pubs on individual players. That’s where I got the info.

I forgot about Ward. He would be a good pickup. Actually, he is more likely to shake loose after this year, since I think B. Jacobs has a more rare skill set.

We could do over 30 guards, but I don’t think that will happen with this coaching and scouting staff. That just is a way to set one’s self up for disappointment.

by bas on Jan 4, 2009 12:39 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sproles

I think we should take a hard look at Darren Sproles. I don’t care if Sproles is only 5’ 6, the guy can take a hit, and actually has some suprising power. This reminds me of a guy not much taller…….Priest Holmes. What do yall think? I don’t think you can ever have enough rb’s when it is most likely that we will have a running back by committee type rush offense next year.

by Prospero15 on Jan 3, 2009 8:33 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think

he is the only reason the Chargers survived this season, as well as tonight vs. Indy.

Great quickness, great hands, elusiveness… the guy is sick.

If he had 4 more inches on him coming out of college he would have been starting somewhere from day 1. He will get his chance next year. If I were San Diego I would drop Tomlinson and keep Sproles. Let the spell carries go to Hester or a drafted RB.

by Ochophosphate on Jan 3, 2009 11:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It took him a few years to come on...

…I wonder if your version of the lightening back will take that long too. They didn’t let him touch the ball on offense for the first couple of years much.

by bas on Jan 4, 2009 12:41 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

I keep seeing people on here saying what about Charles. What about Charles? Sproles is on a whole other level. Charles may be good, but they aren’t comparable. Sproles can do it all. The problem with trying to get him is that he may be expensive due to how well he is playing.

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Jan 3, 2009 9:33 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think

You need two backs in this day and age in the NFL. Charles + Sproles or Ward would be a good two back combo.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 4, 2009 7:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Watching the Chargers game.

Mike Goff is looking like a beast. We want to run the ball Waters and Goff lead the way.

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Jan 3, 2009 10:10 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Midwestern kid too

Hawkeye

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 4, 2009 7:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Shawne Merriman

Just remembered something about this being a contract year for him. Thought that was a big reason why he had surgery and not risk getting injured and not being re-signed. If he is a free agent this year and healthy I hopewe make a play for him. Would be HUGE for our Defense. And sporles looks good as well. SD has some people up for contracts at the end of this season and don’t think they can afford them all.

by KCCheeze on Jan 3, 2009 10:57 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

nevermind

google is my friend..
he has 1 year left on his contract. Although he said if he did not get re-signed by the start of next year he would play next season and test free agency. Would be a good pick up next off season but thats not doing us any good now

by KCCheeze on Jan 3, 2009 11:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Plus

unless we moved to 3-4 D, he would be moved to DE and I don’t know how he would play with his hand on the ground. I’m sure he’d be ok… he’s basically a glorified DE anyway.

He can keep his stupid dance in San Diego for at least another year.

by Ochophosphate on Jan 3, 2009 11:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Kind of how we used DT

He was listed as a lb, but he lined up at DE a lot

Indecision is the key to flexibility

by cmpotter on Jan 4, 2009 1:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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