A Few Myths about the Chiefs' Situation

But this is not always true. Many first round picks go on to be VERY worth it. Finacially speaking. Not all mind you, but many. And if we trust that Pioli is the man to get the job done because of his uncanny ability to pick folks (one of many reasons cited here and other places) then I guess we just have to trust that, whatever round he drops his picks.

true, many first overall picks are very worth it, but on average, it’s the worst spot. Here are fictitious numbers that may illustrate the point:

Draft pick #1 costs 10 million
Draft pick #2 costs 9 million
Draft pick #3 costs 8 million

We must make 3 assumptions for this example: (more on this later)
the cost of picks goes down in a straight line throughout the round
all evaluators agree on the talent level of the first 3 picks
the cost of a player equals his production level if he plays up to evaluator’s expectations

All 3 players are incredibly talented. All 3 players are expected to turn into stars. Additionally, among the top 3 players, there is not a significant difference in the chance the player becomes a bust. Each player has, say, a 20% chance of being a bust.

So:

Pick 1 costs $10 mil to get, on average, $8 mil worth of production (you lose your $10 mil 2 times out of 10)
Pick 2 costs $9 mil to get, on average, $7.2 mil of production
Pick 3 costs $8 mil to get, on average, $6.4 mil of production

In this example, all draft picks would be of equivalent value — 80% of their cost. However, as stated before, the example does not match reality — we make assumptions that we can see are not true, as listed previously. Let’s examine which direction the reality lies from our example.

a)the cost of picks goes down in a straight line throughout the round
actually, it is not a straight line, it is a curve in which the top pick in the draft costs MORE in comparison to the expected potential of the player than any pick below it. Teams who draft second end up paying slightly closer to the expected value. In this way, the lower a team picks, the better deal they get financially. ADVANTAGE: TRADE DOWN

b)the cost of a player equals his production level if he plays up to evaluator’s expectations
not true — the cost of a player varies wildly from his production value. Nowhere is this more true than in the first 3 picks — where it costs LOTS of money no matter what, but the player must essentially become a pro-bowler to be worth the pick. ADVANTAGE: TRADE DOWN

b)all evaluators agree on the talent level of the first 3 picks
obviously not — there are vast disagreements in scouting from team to team. but we have one of the best talent evaluators in football now! (presumably) We can expect Pioli and the Chiefs to make a better choice than the average team on any given pick in the draft. It may not be much of a stretch to blindly assume that Pioli will get the better end of any trade he makes, as well. As I stated before — it is much harder to make a better pick than the average team at #3 then it is at #15 for instance. The amount of disagreement of who the best player in the nation is is smaller than the amount of disagreement on who the best player available is when one guy is gone — even less when 2 guys are gone, and so on.
I’ve established that I believe Pioli to have an advantage over other teams as far as drafts go — therefore, trading down plays to Pioli’s strengths — the later in the rounds, the more doubt there is — and the more likely a good evaluator can set himself apart from other teams. Add to that that trading down gives Pioli more picks, and more chances to find someone who slipped. ADVANTAGE: TRADE DOWN

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That said, here are the reasons that might change all of that:

Pioli sees a near lock available — a guy that he thinks just can’t bust – likes his personality AND game, and doesn’t anticipate contract disputes of any kind. I can’t imagine this happening.

Chiefs make a trade before the draft that gets them another high first round pick – like #6. The analysis of players that will be available shows a big likely dropoff in need between #3 and #6, so Pioli keeps #3 and tries to trade down 6. I can’t imagine this happening.

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Overall, I just don’t think Pioli will chase a big name — and it would be silly to take a guy at #3 that isn’t #3 talent, when he could trade down, gain value, and go for that same talent later.

Unfortunately your good points are known by most NFL GM’s. IMHO that makes it harder than hell to trade this high of a pick. Fortunately, in this instance, we have so many holes to fill I think you have to take the BPA. Possibly Crabtree who IMO is the lowest risk pick in this draft but, 3 seems high for a WR. I would also add that free agency will affect this greatly. By that I mean what holes can be filled with free agency. Thankfully IMO we have a very shrewd talent evaluator.

I’m not that strong on the current crop, but it seems to me that Crabtree is the lowest risk pick also. He’s the guy I’d choose if I had to bet who ends up in the HOF, that’s for sure.

I’m with you – I don’t see how it’s the right choice for us at 3 (IMO his talent justifies the highest rookie WR contract ever — not Pioli’s style, and we DO have Bowe already) but I would be VERY happy to see him a Chief.

Charles, Bowe, Crabtree and Gailey is a damn exciting team for me. Then all we’d need is an elite Vick prototype to complete the dream in my signature….

Look at Pioli’s first draft in New England, he drafted Seymour near the top of the draft. Seymour’s been a foundation piece for almost a decade. If you have a chance to get a guy like that and have absolutely no cap issues, then you do it. It’s very hard and very expensive to acquire premium talent at key positions other than at the top of the draft.

excellent points. we agree on far more than we disagree on, i’m guessing.

It’s just great to have the decisions made by someone whose judgement I trust and who as a proven record of building champions, it’s just so much better to be a fan of a team like this than it’s been for over a decade with the Chiefs.

amen brutha!

crabtree won’t drop past 4, and everybody knows it. HUGE bargaining chip. Chiefs could trade this pick and get two offensive lineman, or 1 and 1 on both sides of the trenches. Assuming Gailey is around for awhile and everybody knows it, I believe the Chiefs will draft offense first and make sure that side of the ball is set for a few years. Gailey’s offensive mind is currently the Chief’s strongest coaching asset.