Chiefs Deny Lions Permission To Interview Gunther Cunningham

I’ll seriously contemplate it if he remains the coach long term..I’m not kidding either..Picture herm in KC for the next 10 years and tell me how you feel about that..I’m as die hard as they come, when the chiefs lose, my day is ruined..But I refuse to follow Herm Edwards..

"In what can only be described as a rather bizarre move by the Chiefs

Well perhaps Crawford it is only bizarre because it does not fit in with your idea of how the chiefs should be run….or perhaps it is simply regression to the mean…perhaps all the success that PIoli Had will now regress back the mean and he will now be a failure?….I can not find your post where you tried to use regression to the mean as another way to prove your points..but i did get a good laugh out of it because it is not that simple (see below) ….

the main point being that regression to the mean may not be the only variable going on here..and in fact many do rise above this and that is why it is hard to pigeon hole human beings with this factor….Human motivation can indeed rise above this phenomena. IN fact using regression to the mean, a case could made to keep Herm since he has not any where else to go but up!

The better question to me is why do so many people rise above these kinds of statistical analysis? I think you can all It human motivation….Perhaps it is hard to be motivated for so many years in a row….and that may explain why so many atheletes seem to lose their abilities after they are given a huge contract. Look at how many people said the Cardinals quarterback was washed up….and so it did appear for a few years….now look at Him? Perhaps Pioli knows this and he is basing his decision on the human factor which is so hard to quantify. …….so I watch this whole drama unfold with a lot of amusment as Pioli seems to be doing his own thing rather than adhering to the wisdom esposed by Crawford and many others who now are willing to start to attack Pioli….personally I think Pioli has a much better track record since he has shown the ability to rise above statistical aberations like regression to the mean….

the following is from nation master…notice that regression to the mean would predict that Carmello Anthony in his 2006 season his scoring average would fall….this did not happen because his 2006 was way better than his rookie season., and his scoring average rose again in 2007 (again negating regression to the mean)..again showing that regression to the mean is a very medocre predictor of individual preformance especially with certain atheletes and for that matter GM’s and Coaches….

Statistical analysts have long recognized the effect of regression to the mean in sports; they even have a special name for it: the “Sophomore Slump.” For example, Carmelo Anthony of the NBA’s Denver Nuggets had an outstanding rookie season in 2004. It was so outstanding, in fact, that he couldn’t possibly be expected to repeat it: in 2005, Anthony’s numbers had slightly dropped from his torrid rookie season. The reasons for the “sophomore slump” abound, as sports are all about adjustment and counter-adjustment, but luck-based excellence as a rookie is as good a reason as any. Of course, not just “sophomores” experience regression to the mean. Any athlete who posts a significant outlier, whether as a rookie (young players are universally not as good as those in their prime seasons), or particularly after their prime years (for most sports, the mid to late twenties), can be expected to perform more in line with their established standards of performance. The trick for sports executives, then, is to determine whether or not a player’s play in the previous season was indeed an outlier, or if the player has established a new level of play. However, this is not easy. Melvin Mora of the Baltimore Orioles put up a season in 2003, at age 31, that was so far away from his performance in prior seasons that analysts assumed it had to be an outlier… but in 2004, Mora was even better. Mora, then, had truly established a new level of production, though he will likely regress to his more reasonable 2003 numbers in 2005. . …