The Chiefs Offensive Expectations

by Chris on Sep 6, 2008 1:17 PM CDT in 2008 Campaign Comment 27 comments

Because of injuries, the Kansas City Chiefs are only dressing three wide receivers.

Larry Johnson has not played in a regular season football game since November 4th, 2007. The Chiefs' fullback is a brand-new rookie.

The offensive line is still very much in flux and unstable as a unit.

What kind of production can we possibly expect from this offense?

Let me make an unpopular prediction - Our offense is going to be extremely unproductive this weekend against the Patriots and for at least a few weeks after that. Let me tell you why. And this is more about the direction of the team over the next few weeks than specifically about this Sunday's match up.

I am in no way a believer in this offensive line until I see actual production on the field. I need to see it with my eyes for me to believe it. I need to see Larry Johnson running through big gaps in the line, defensive players flattened and most importantly in the rushing game stats.

I still feel stung from last season when I thought, not especially strongly mind you, but I thought that the Chiefs line would be adequate going into the regular season. And frankly, I have not seen really anything in the preseason to make me think that the line has improved much over last year's squad.

That mistake and the misjudgement by the Chiefs coaching staff has really jaded me to being a homer. It can make you look ridiculous and make you really question your judgement.

Next, behind Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs have nearly zero depth at wide receiver. I know Maurice Price and Will Franklin are solid prospects and me saying zero depth is in no way criticizing their talents or the talents of Darling, Webb or Robinson.

My point is about our reveiver draft picks - they are unknown wide receiver talents in the NFL. Unknown. We really have no clue how much they will help this team. They should help this team. Wide receivers are notoriously hard to judge coming into the NFL draft. Past drafts are riddled with sickeningly high draft pick choices spent on wide receivers who never lived up to a tenth of their hype.

If the pressure is that high on a top WR draft pick and the odds that poor, then certainly those odds worsen as you drop into the fourth round (Franklin) and down to the undrafted college free agents (Price).

Again, we just don't know with these guys. Even Bowe is still proving himself after a huge rookie year. Expectations are heavy on him as well.

To top it all off, the Chiefs are starting the regular season tomorrow against what was last year one of the greatest regular season football teams of all time. At the very least, this game will be a major, major test for a young team. I like that we are playing the Patriots right off the bat. Baptism by fire. Let's throw them in and see what they can do.

What about your thoughts about this Chiefs offense?

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I think one

Major upgrade to the line would be , once BA gets going move Herb to the right side, just stating the obvious. Move Croyle in the pocket more, just till the o-line gets going. I n the beginning use Kolby and Jamaal a little more, they are a little more elusive than LJ. I still have some hope that we will be better than last year, surely the newer guys have to be better than Turley, Terry and company.

by Eric Allen on Sep 6, 2008 1:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That's what I'm hoping

That the player personnel changes are enough to promote at least some improvement. I still have to see it before I believe it.

Arrowhead Pride

by Chris on Sep 6, 2008 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have faith young grasshopper!

One major difference will be the playcalling by an experienced coordinator, that has to account for something.(Doesn’t it?)

by Eric Allen on Sep 6, 2008 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know it does

Right now I can’t bring myself to say that is a definite fact though.

Arrowhead Pride

by Chris on Sep 6, 2008 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was pissed during a couple

Of the pre-season games, because it looked like more of last year. Now that I have heard several of the players say they were trying to work on specific things, my Faith in Chan has come back up.( Not like last year when I puked in my mouth several times!)

by Eric Allen on Sep 6, 2008 1:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

think the offensive performance in preseason was...

basically designed to observe. Not necessarily to win the game by a huge margin, but merely an instrument to gauge what the guys learned from the OTA’s and training camp. Basically just to see how new players would react and such within the system.

The first drive in the games would be a more healthier indicator on the strength of our offensive unit. Because it’s the first team unit against Opp. Force’s 1st unit. Maybe the questions we should ask ourselves during the preseason would be like; How did we attack the defense? Did we keep the other teams D off balanced? We’re the Croyle roll outs effective against the top pass rushers?

These are the opening drives of the past preseason games:
vs. CHICAGO
16 plays time of possession 8:45 for 81 yards, outcome TD

vs. ARIZONA
12 plays T.O.P. 7:12 for 46 yards, outcome FG

vs. MIAMI
lets just forget this one shall we….

vs. ST. LOUIS
16 plays T.O.P. 4:47 for 65 yards, outcome TD

The lack of offensive success cannot be referenced to our poor play, or the instability of our rotating offensive line, but more on that there was so many new faces during the course of the game, how could you keep the continuity of the offensive unit. Who all have to be on the same page just to move the ball 10 yards, much less a sustain a drive.

On the youngsters playing WR, and their unknown factor or lack of experience. I would absolutely have to agree with you, on the return in investment on such highly drafted players have been mediocre at best. I think scouts put too much emphasis on triangle numbers (size, speed, strength) than on pure talent. Maybe that would explain the lack of success when evaluating college WR’s. I think next to QB the hardest position to evaluate is the WR position. A lot of hit or miss when it comes to that position. IF you look at the WR who have had some success on the field, most were picked outside of the can’t miss prospect labels.

Steve Smith 3rd round
Marques Colston 7th round
Derrick Mason 4th round
Hines Ward 3rd round
Joe Horn 5th round
Anquan Boldin 2nd round
Isaac Bruce 2nd round
Deion Branch 2nd round
Laveranues Coles 3rd round
Chris Chambers 2nd round
Chad Ocho Cinco (Johnson) 2nd round
Terrell Owens 3rd round

I think there is a lot of room for optimism for this year, its not just blind faith. We collapsed last year because we deviated from the long term plan, for quick satisfaction, and the proverbial "best chance of winning now." Herms approach playing them young is the only way to see if we need to address a certain position again next year. I think the only thing that resembles last years stink is the memory of that long season.

Lets see how the NY Jets fare this season and compare them to Chiefs over the course of this year and next, and lets see who’s better off. The Jets this year are the classic lets win now at any cost, while the Chiefs approach is I’ll take my beating now so that I’ll have it pay off in the future. The Jets have practically bought their roster from other teams, yes that’s including Favre. By the time the Jets jell as a team and become use to playing with each other…. their old again. Will their payoff this year also continue to produce beyond to next year?

by aPacificChief on Sep 6, 2008 8:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

An even better comparison

“Lets see how the NY Jets fare this season and compare them to Chiefs over the course of this year and next, and lets see who’s better off.”

An even better comparison is how the Cheifs will compare to the Jets for the next 10 years. A team built through the draft with youth can be a power for a decade. A team built on free agents like the Jets will be better for two, maybe three years and then they will be in cap trouble for some time.

by ChiefDJ on Sep 6, 2008 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair

The NFL isn’t like the NBA, where quality drafting leads to longterm success. I know we’ve used all of the best examples, but there are just as many examples of teams drafting long term and getting nothing out of it, just as there are examples of teams using free agency efficiently to build championship teams. I’m just saying, it’s not like one way is necessarily better than the other. You have to make the right decisions either way.

by Ridiculous Matt on Sep 6, 2008 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Matt thats ridiculous...

I couldn’t resist…..If you look at the history of the NFL dynasties are born through the draft. Pittsburgh, 49ners,Cowboys, even the Patriots. Yup all through the draft.

I would say the NBA is a bad example, only because majority of the people could tell you the top 4 teams every year who had a legitimate shot at a championship. Not so with the NFL, nobody predicted that the Giants would beat the Patriots in the beginning of the 07 season. Thats what is the most satifying part of the NFL, any team has a shot at a trophy any given year.
Just look at the ‘08 NBA Champions Celtics, their core are all free agents. Pierce I think was an original Celtic when he came out of college, but was traded. Then resigned again with the Celtics, Garnett & Allen were assembled by trades or by free agency. The summary of NBA’s success in their drafts are whether they will be selecting in the top 3, and if there lucky to have a shot at a quality big man. Success later in the draft are rare, and are mostly in the guard positions.

by aPacificChief on Sep 7, 2008 12:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is the beginning of rebuilding the offense, not the end

We got a lot of nice weapons for the offense this offseason, but as well all knew, there were too many holes to fill in one draft.

The right side of the O-line is still very shaky and it is going to take Albert time to get in the groove at LT, especially considering he missed the entire preseason. We picked up WRs where we could, but they are ALL unproven, even Bowe. Remember Sylvester Morris had a good rookie year too. To top it all off, we have a brand new offensive coordinator installing a brand new offense.

I sincerely hope that we as fans will not forget that we are still playing with a half-built offensive unit where holes are plugged with pretty much anyone they could find when things turn ugly on occassion like they did in Miami. We should be hoping for flashes of future greatness from our young guys, not expecting them to play like 8 year vets.

Sincerely we should all be looking at the entire 2008 regular season as an extended preseason for 2009 because we’re looking for the same things. Player development and figuring out who works best where.

Yes, we want to win and they will be trying to win. But you can’t sail to Hawaii on a leaky boat.

by ChiefDJ on Sep 6, 2008 2:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You know what would help this offense?

Damon Huard! I know we’ve all forgot about him, but the only chance we have against the Pats would be with Huard. So let’s not seriously talk about winning when the Chiefs won’t even give themselves a chance. Larry runs for less than 80. Croyle throws an interception and for less than 200 yards. I imagine Cottam should get lots of playing time out of our 2 TE package. Cottam and better play calling is what I’m looking forward to. Go Kolby Smith!

by rustdog on Sep 6, 2008 2:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

We haven't forgotten about Huard, but we're trying to

Playing Huard does absolutely nothing for this team. We need to be developing players, including our young QB. Hard as it is for me to say, this team is not good enough to compete for a playoff spot. We have a lot of talented young players that we need to be developing and getting experience so over the next couple of years as we bring in even more talent, we will improve the ability of this team to win long term.

You can argue that playing Huard might give us a better chance to win this one game (which I disagree with), but it does NOTHING to help the Chiefs impvrove for the next decade.

by ChiefDJ on Sep 6, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

ChiefDJ, you beat me to the punch. Didn’t mean to say the same thing (below)

by TXChiefan on Sep 6, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ouch!

Give Brodie a chance! It seems like you aren’t thinking about the long term and team building concept. I think D Huard is there in case Brodie goes down, but Brodie NEEDs this game to continue his development. I know we are in it to win it, but at the same time, the experience of playing against a top team under adverse conditions (tropical storm possibly) is HUGE for all of our young guys.

I still respect and admire Huard, but we need him most as a mentor and solid back-up. Brodie is our QB of the present and needs this game.

by TXChiefan on Sep 6, 2008 2:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

will be trying to forget Croyle by the end of this year

the young offensive players can not develop if they don’t have a quarterbak that can lead them. At least Hard knows how to throw to the tightends. How many games until we’ve seen what Croyle can do? Can you really put a number on that? I know all the statistics about young qb’s struggling in their early years, but those players actually showed signs of talent and poise and the ability to make plays. Honestly, what has Brodie shown us?

by rustdog on Sep 6, 2008 2:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

More than Huard has: an arm and leadership.

by Ridiculous Matt on Sep 6, 2008 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huard can't move to save his life..

Dan Marino had a gun for an arm, even after retired. Dan admitted that I finally started to see the game and how it unfolds, but my body cannot evade the rushers any more.

by aPacificChief on Sep 6, 2008 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Croyle completed more passes per game to TG than Huard

by primetime 07 on Sep 6, 2008 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rustdog, how are you related to Huard?

I like Huard too, as a backup QB. He is never going to get better than he is right now. If we bite the bullet and give Brodie a chance to make mistakes and learn, he MAY develop into a franchise QB.

by WolfFan on Sep 6, 2008 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We're going to suck

Beyond comprehension. Barring an unbelievable explosion by several players in development, this is going to rival last year’s team for the worst Chiefs offense in the modern age. I’m more worried about the effect on Bowe than anything. Flashy star receivers don’t like being in tragically inept offenses (see: Boldin, Anquan). I’m worried that while Herm’s focusing on getting us to “play football”, he’s going to neglect Bowe. You have to get the kid some touchdowns to get him to stick around.

As much as I wish we’d had some sort of improvement on the offensive line with a free agent signing, at least we drafted as such. It’s weird, because I don’t even know what I’m looking for this year. We can’t improve that much, because we just don’t have the talent on the offensive line. And that effects the running game, the passing game, the receiving game, and the defense. Just based on how terrible our personnel is, I have to give Herm another full two years, just based on how dire things are.

There’s always the chance of the unexpected, though. Brodie’s either going to continue at his current rate, and he’ll be gone next year, or he’ll finally start to “get it” and have a few huge games.

Tomorrow? Not going to happen. Most years I give us a chance against anyone. But this year’s different.

by Ridiculous Matt on Sep 6, 2008 2:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Croyle is back next year no matter what

Historically our front office has been slow to react to busts and I don’t expect it to be any different this time.

by primetime 07 on Sep 6, 2008 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you look for a starting QB

in the third round and he doesn’t pan out as a starter, is that really a “bust”? I’d say any time you get a starter at a skill position after round 2 you’ve found a gem, so if Croyle doesn’t make it, I wouldn’t call it a bust…

by PVChiefsfan on Sep 6, 2008 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

System or Players

I think last year we were caught in a system that did not play to our strength and a few personal changes might help this. I am a huge fan of Weigman, he was great as a pulling center and helped make Priest Holmes a star, however, he was undersized and unable to get any push. Hopefully, our new 300 lb center (and the smartest guy on the team), can help get some initial push.

by schraggyj on Sep 6, 2008 4:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Woops--Hit Enter Too Fast

I was also going to say that getting Cottam and releasing Dunn might help substantially. Dunn also was a fan favorite and a solid blocking TE in his prime. However, back injuries took their toll and there is a reason he is unemployed today. I HOPE, and I mean HOPE, that having Cottam as another big body will help get some push.

Considering that LJ is still probably our best player (next to Tony G. arguably) and the focus of our entire offense (we didn’t win a game without him), we need our personal to match our downhill running system. Hopefully some the new pickups do that.

Keep in mind that when both Allen and Johnson where in the line up last year we were 4 and 1 (I think I’m right on this—could be wrong). With either of them gone, we didn’t win a game. Hopefully, that record is more of a testament to Johnson and not Allen (since he is gone).

Regardless, Go Chiefs!!

by schraggyj on Sep 6, 2008 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree with most of what you say

Though I think we are going to see the superstars like Tony G and LJ get used as decoys a lot this year until other teams stop double teaming or putting 8 men in the box.

I still think with all the RBs we have we’re going to see a lot of 2 back sets, which we haven’t seen in preseason at all.

I think we have plenty of weapons (an established #2 WR would be really nice, but maybe we will have that by the end of the year?), the O-line just still looks really shakey. But who knows, maybe by the end of the year that will be worked out as well. Richardson isn’t ready to be a starter now, but maybe he will be by the end of the year.

My hope is that by the end of the year, a lot of the questions we have today, the day before the regular season begins, will be answered.

by ChiefDJ on Sep 6, 2008 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you hit it right on the head

But the key is can Cottam stay on the field? Homeboy only started in like 10 games(and thats over 5 years) in Tennessee, because of various injuries. Otherwise were left with another TE who can’t help.

by aPacificChief on Sep 6, 2008 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs