Chiefs vs Patriots - Keys to Victory
When asked what chance a pair of barefoot midgets had of succesfully sneaking into the homeland of the invincible Lord of Darkness, evading his hordes of minions, in an effort to destroy the source of all evil; the wizard replied "There never was much hope...just a fool's hope".
This Sunday the NFL version of this story plays out. The Kansas City Chiefs were one of the worst teams in football last year and the New England Patriots were a perfect 16-0 in the regular season. Tom Brady completed 68.9% of his passes and only threw 8 interceptions in 578 pass attempts for a measely 1.4 INT %. The Patriots offense broke several NFL records, including points in a season and beat their opponents by 20 points or more eleven times.
The Chiefs on the other hand, are coming off their worst season in 20 years riding a 9 game losing streak to end the season. Our current roster includes 33 players in their 3rd season in the NFL or less.
So how can the Kansas City midgets ever hope to sneak away from the Dark Lord's lair at Gillette Stadium with a victory?
1) PASS RUSH - The two games the Patriots came closest to losing in the regular season (@ Indianapolis & @ Baltimore), and the loss in the Super Bowl vs the Giants all had one thing in common. The oppossing teams mounted a serious pass rush that knocked Tom Terrific off his game.
* Against the Colts: Brady was sacked 2 times and threw 2 interceptions as a direct result of the pass rush.
* Against the Ravens: Brady was sacked 3 times, threw 1 interception and had a 47.4% completion percentage.
* In the Super Bowl loss against the Giants: Brady was sacked 5 times, fumbled once and was knocked on his backside several more times.
It is clear that one of the things the Chiefs MUST do is mount a consistent pass rush that will prevent Brady from having all day in the pocket to throw to his Pro Bowl WRs.
2) EAT CLOCK - This is what Herm's philosophy is all about. The Chiefs offense MUST lead long, sustained drives that will chew time off the clock and keep the Patriots high powered offense OFF the field. The fewer possessions the Patriots get, the fewer opportunities they will have to score, it's a simple concept really and short of getting into a shootout (in which we would stand absolutely no chance) is the only way to handle this high octane offense. A secondary benefit to keeping our offense on the field is that it also keeps the Patriots defense ON the field as well and though that defense is made up of great players such as Teddy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel; they are old in football years. The LB groups average age is 30. The longer we can keep those guys on the field, the softer they'll be late in the game.
3) ELEMENT OF SURPRISE - Though Herm will say that he doesn't really care when he plays the Patriots, there couldn't be a better time than the first game of the season. Herm, Chan and several Chiefs players made it clear that they were playing very basic with the offense in preseason and did not want to give their regular season opponents a very good look at what to expect from them. With the new offense under Chan Gailey plus all the new players, the Chiefs will have a window of opportunity in which the Lord of Darkness himself, Bill Bellichik and his defense will not have a very good idea what to expect from them. The Chiefs need to use that to their advantage.
4) SCORE POINTS - Duh. This should go without saying, but in this game it is especially critical that our offense puts points of some sort on the board every opportunity we get. Referring back to point #2 of eating the clock, if we control Time of Possession, the Pats will get fewer possessions to score, but so will we. The Chiefs MUST take advantage of their opportunities.
It is worth noting that in the three games mentioned above where the Patriots were closest to losing or lost, they were kept near Herms magic number of 24 points. Beat the Colts 24-20. Beat the Ravens 27-24 on a FG with 44 seconds remaining. Lost to the Giants 17-14.
5) LUCK - Let's face it, we're going to have to have a little luck on our side also. A tipped pass interception, a fumble bouncing the right way, a Bernard Pollard blocked punt, something. A little luck of our young players not making their expected rookie mistakes at inopportune times will help a great deal as well.
CONCLUSION
So these are the things the Chiefs need to do in order to have a CHANCE at winning. So do they have the capability?
Of course, in the NFL we live by the "Any given Sunday" rule in which any team in the league should have the ability to defeat any other team "any given Sunday". But let's face it, the chances are slim. The Chiefs pass rush has been measely from what we saw in the preseason. The offensive line still looks soft which will make it difficult for us to run the ball or give the QB time in the pocket to make accurate throws. Probalby our biggest disadvantage is that of our inexperienced youth lined up against the Pats battle hardened veterans.
But that same disadvantage is also our greatest strength. As Herm likes to point out, "Young guys don't know what they don't know". A lot of these guys are fresh out of college where they were used to being Top Dog on their teams. They haven't been in the NFL long enough to know that they aren't supposed to be any good. Guys like Flowers, Carr, Dorsey and Albert will look at this as a chance to prove that they are great players against the best team in the NFL. Young guys are emotional and if they get pumped and excited about this challenge, they could be capable of performing superhuman acts the like of that 95 lb mom that lifted the car off her kid.
Many of our young players weren't part of this team during that losing streak last year, so they don't own it. That's something someone else did, not them. So while yes, youth could be our biggest liability, it could conversely be our greatest advantage.
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Comments
Great post!
Been wondering where you were at. Maybe I am overly optimistic, but I think we are being taken lightly, and that will be our best shot at winning this game. Yeah if Brady has to throw from his can we will be much better off. I thought Zach Thomas was a Cowboy, did I miss Dallas cutting him?
by Eric Allen on Sep 4, 2008 7:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Pass rush is the key
to winning this game. If Brady has enough time to dissect our secondary he’ ll be well on his way to breaking his TD record. We need to get a push from the not-so-midget-like Glenn Dorsey.
I strive to be the person my dog thinks I am.
by KCking on Sep 4, 2008 9:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Dude, know your enemy.
Neither Zach Thomas (Dallas) nor Junior Seau (surfing) play for the Patriots. The starting LB 4 of the Pats is as follows:
Mike Vrabel, 33
Tedy Bruschi, 35
Jerod Mayo, 22
Adalius Thomas, 31
Average age, 30 (still admittedly old—though over here we prefer "seasoned"). The Patriots substitute freely for situational requirements. You will also see a fair amount of
Pierre Woods, 26
Eric Alexander, 26
and maybe even Shawn Crable, 24.
Your dual goals of scoring and eating clock are in conflict a little bit, as you note. I think the Chiefs really need to get four TD’s to win this one, and they’ll have to come on the ground. That said, the Patriots run defense has looked like garbage in the preseason, particularly at the edge—which is where Herm and crew like to attack. Though, again, your offensive line isn’t that great.
Your best point is the pass rush, and I can tell you it’s a big concern here in New England. Our offensive line has been riddled with injuries this preseason. We have right guard by committee and right tackle Nick Kaczur still hasn’t hit his stride. LT Matt Light played all of two series this preseason (which amounted to about 6 plays).
And as to luck, you might expect some of the manufactured kind. Brady hasn’t played a snap since the Super Bowl, so you can expect the timing to be off. Our DB’s are a recently-assembled collection that hasn’t had enough time to come together. So the opportunities are there.
No one knows anything right now. This could be a barn-burner, it could be cover-your-eyes awful, or somewhere in between.
As Mr. Sloan always says, there is no "I" in team, but there is an "I" in pie. And there's an "I" in meat pie. Anagram of meat is team... I don't know what he's talking about. --Shaun of the Dead
by JohnHannahRules on Sep 4, 2008 11:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Welcome. Thanks for the perspective
That’s a serious, not sarcastic comment, btw. :)
Why do you say the four TDs will have to come on the ground? Because Pats’ run defense has been soft so far? Because you think the Chiefs’ running backs are better than the receiving corps? You mentioned that your DBs are untested – except Hobbs, who I believe Bowe can beat in jump ball situations. I think the TDs will come from short passes to Jamaal Charles, maybe Kolby Smith and one of our TEs, along with a short goal-to-go run by Larry Johnson. (Although it won’t be over right tackle.)
This game has enough questions marks that it will be very entertaining at least at the start to see how everything will break. And even if the Chiefs are down by 20 at the half, I wouldn’t go do something else without keeping an eye on the second half. The Chiefs are young, but increasingly have speedy playmakers on the team. Good luck!
by sunny D on Sep 4, 2008 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
DBs
CB Ellis Hobbs is a serviceable corner, but he’s no Asante Samuel. As far as the other CBs, we have rookies Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite who, well, play like rookies. Mike Richardson is in his 2nd year with the Pats, but was IR’d for 2007 and Antwain Spann is in his 3rd year with the Pats, but I haven’t seen much from him. Lewis Sanders and Deltha O’Neal are the vets and are first year Patriots. I would not be surprised to see S Brandon Meriweather move up to corner every once in a while.
As far as safety is concerned, we have veteran Patriots Rodney Harrison, Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Rookie Mark Dillard is wet behind the ears and Ray Ventrone has spent the last few years moving back and forth between the practice squad. Hybrid safety/linebacker Tank Williams was IR’d and hybrid safety/linebacker John Lynch was released, but could be back (not for this game).
All in all, a little shakey, but we’ll see what happens. Dom Capers is our new DB coach and a good one at that, so if anyone can turn them around, I hope he can.
Blogger at SBNation's New England Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit
by MaPatsFan on Sep 4, 2008 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks--this is a good site.
I think Harrison, Hobbs, Merriweather and Dom Capers are smarter at football than Croyle. That’s mainly why I think the ground. The other half is that the ground game is the Chiefs’ strength and our run defense has looked soft at times this preseason.
As Mr. Sloan always says, there is no "I" in team, but there is an "I" in pie. And there's an "I" in meat pie. Anagram of meat is team... I don't know what he's talking about. --Shaun of the Dead
by JohnHannahRules on Sep 4, 2008 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, I said "welcome," not "Bring your whole team over here."
=)
It’s going to take Croyle some time to learn how to look off defenders, so you may have a point. A lot is riding on OC Chan Gailey’s shoulders to design and call plays that our personnel can execute and be successful. With WR auditions going on in training camp, Croyle is not close to being connected at the hip with any receivers. Bowe being the possible exception — and training camp roommate.
Thanks for the added insight, MaPats. Aren’t you being a bit generous calling Deltha O’Neal a first year player for the Patriots? Don’t you mean first week? =)
P.S. People do understand the use of sarcasm by a columnist you commented on elsewhere. Since people around Kansas City are subjected to his negativity on a regular basis, however, the sarcasm ceases to be a clever tool for “afflicting the comfortable” or even humor, and instead becomes symptomatic of a cancer for which there appears to be no known cure.
by sunny D on Sep 4, 2008 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Deltha O'Neal
Too funny… ;-) Point taken.
Blogger at SBNation's New England Patriots blog, Pats Pulpit
by MaPatsFan on Sep 4, 2008 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
heh
we’re still trying to figure out if Croyle is smarter than my 10 year old Italian Greyhounds.
Points well taken.
I like these Pats fans a lot better than some of the Dolphins fans we had. Welcome fellas.
by Ochophosphate on Sep 4, 2008 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the corrections
Don’t know why I mixed up Zach Thomas going to the Cowboys instead of the Patriots and totally missed Junior Seau being gone.
I don’t think eating clock and scoring points are at odds. There will be fewer opportunities to score because there will be fewer possessions, but if you have 10 possessions and you score a touchdown on every one, you still have 70 points.
There are essentially three things the Chiefs must do to have any shot at winning this game:
1) Keep Brady and Co. off the field as much as possible to give them fewer scoring opportunities.
2) Play good defense and try to limit the damage the #1 offense in the NFL last year can do.
3) Take full advantage of our OWN scoring opportunities.
by ChiefDJ on Sep 4, 2008 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I knew what you meant, DJ
As long as you didn’t have Dick Butkus or Ray Nietzsche in there, I was pickin’ up what you were layin’ down. I still say Bruschi (or was it Vrabel?) shouldn’t have done Dancing with the Stars when he should have been back for voluntary workouts with the team. – wink, wink -
Pretty cool to have a couple reasonable Pats fans share viewpoints.
by sunny D on Sep 4, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great lead-in
I laughed out loud, which is probably the only thing related to this game that will put a smile on my face. I have a very bad feeling about this week.
I tried to come up with a functional anagram for Carl Peterson, but I couldn't get past "crap sneer lot".
by chiefstatnut on Sep 4, 2008 1:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nothing to Lose even if we lose...
Great post, captivated by the story comparison I was ready to break out the popcorn :-)
Hey…if we win, we just toppled one of the NFL’s elite.
If we lose, but keep it close there’s hope that other side of this painful rebuilding process is almost over.
If we lose horribly its to be expected, we’re rebuilding.
The pressure is on the Pat’s, they lost in the SB and have something to prove.
by aPacificChief on Sep 4, 2008 3:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nothing to lose
We’re rated #32 of 32 teams, against top 5 team. Just don’t get too embarassed… 0-1.
by CheerChiefs on Sep 5, 2008 2:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Croyle may have top game
If I remember correctly, last year Croyle’s best game was against Indianapolis and had a QB rating better than Mannings. There again the pass rush kept Manning off guard and his game wasn’t his usual. Something about playing up to the competition. The Chiefs may not win but I think if they don’t, they will make a good showing.
by rnobar on Sep 5, 2008 10:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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