Selecting college Quarterbacks

by tevans96 on Sep 16, 2008 10:04 AM CDT

Well it looks like we will be drafting very high again next year, and with our current staring QB being injured as much as he plays we may need to look a drafting a QB next year. Many people have different opinions on what makes a good pro QB from college, here is just one article I found that was very interesting in projecting QBs to the NFL.

The future NFL success of quarterbacks chosen in the first two rounds of the draft can be projected with a high degree of accuracy by using just two statistics from college: games started and completion percentage.

This theory was introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2006 and further refined in Pro Football Prospectus 2007. The projection created by these stats is known as the Lewin Career Forecast, after the creator of the theory, David Lewin.

Scouts expected players such as Kyle Boller (48 percent), Jim Druckenmiller (54 percent) and Ryan Leaf (54 percent) to suddenly figure out how to complete passes once they hit the NFL. It isn't surprising that it didn't happen. Having a high completion percentage (above 60 percent or so) is no guarantee of success, especially if it was done in a small number of games in a fluky system (Tim Couch being a strong example), but it is a prerequisite for it. Games started are important because the more film that exists of a player in game conditions, the easier it is to find weaknesses that might come out against different opponents or different schemes. When scouts don't get sufficient information, they place too much weight on "measureables" and off-field workouts, and make mistakes like Couch (26 starters), Leaf (24 starts) or Akili Smith (19 starts).

The Lewin Career Forecast only applies to the first two rounds because it assumes that with enough game film to judge, scouts can accurate identify players who are "system quarterbacks" and will not succeed in the NFL, and those players appropriately fall on draft day (Colt Brennan being a good example from 2008).

From 1996-2005, the worst quarterback drafted in the top two rounds who had 37 or more college starts and a completion rate above 60 percent was Eli Manning. When the worst projection belongs to a quarterback who just led a two-minute drill to finish off a historic Super Bowl upset, that's a good projection system.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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That sounds familiar...

…I think I’ve ripped that off before: games started and completion percentage.

by Joel Thorman on Sep 16, 2008 10:41 AM CDT reply actions

Tim Couch

The biggest problem with Couch wasn’t a lack of ability to play QB in the NFL. In fact, if you look at his numbers he really wasn’t a bad QB at all in the NFL.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoucTi00.htm

The biggest problem was that his line was so bad he couldn’t stay healthy and he didn’t have any talent around him. Apparently he tried to do a comeback recently and his shoulder is so damaged he can’t put any velocity on his throws. So I don’t really think you can lump him in with Druckenmiller or Leaf, both of whom were terrible QBs.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DrucJi00.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LeafRy00.htm

Boller’s not as bad as Leaf or Druckenmiller either…he’s probably shown that he’s got enough to be a capable backup if he can recover from shoulder surgery. You wouldn’t want him as your starter, though.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Sep 16, 2008 12:29 PM CDT reply actions

sounds very familiar

The biggest problem was that his line was so bad he couldn’t stay healthy and he didn’t have any talent around him

…hrm, where have I seen something similar recently?

have you seen my baseball?

by IISaiNtII on Sep 16, 2008 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions

The Difference Being

Couch was a far superior QB to Croyle in college…and a far superior QB to Croyle in their playing time in the pros as well :)

But a comparison to Greg Cook is certainly in order…if a guy can’t stay on the field, he’s not helping the team. In Couch’s defense, though, he didn’t do a horrible job of staying on the field all things considered. In three of his five seasons he played 14 games or more.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Sep 16, 2008 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions

Hard to believe I actually say this...

but that is top notch, lol. I wanted to believe in Croyle, and I know alot of other people still do and blame our line for his troubles, but the simple fact of the matter is he’s always going to be taking shots. When the time comes for a big game and Croyle takes a shot in the AFC Championship game and has to go out due to injury, is that when they’ll decide enough is enough? When the top-tier talent is at it’s best?

I hate having to start over, but it’s the nature of the beast. Get someone else. Let Croyle be the #2 guy, he can surely handle that. Or let him crash and burn along with the rest of the young team. I can envision Herm saying “it builds character, and you want your guys out there on the field to have that.”

have you seen my baseball?

by IISaiNtII on Sep 16, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions

Boller's Numbers

If you remove the 2006 season (5 games, zero starts, 55 attempts all year…great QB rating but tiny sample size) you’ll note that his QB rating and completion percentage has actually improved every year he’s been in the NFL.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BollKy00.htm

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Sep 16, 2008 12:33 PM CDT reply actions