AP Mock Draft Predictions vs. Results

by stag on Aug 1, 2008 2:52 PM CDT Comment 10 comments

From the FanPosts. Thanks to Stag for putting this together. -Primetime

It recently occurred to me that we had no real follow-up posts to the (in my opinion) fantastically successful 1st annual Arrowhead Pride Community Mock Draft. In that vein, I've compiled a list of the predictions proffered by the astute readers/posters of AP against the actual results of the 2008 NFL Draft.

In the table below, we have the pick #, the original team assigned to pick in that spot (figuring out all the draft day trades and including them seemed too big a headache), the AP prediction, the actual player picked at that #, and the difference between the number of the prediction vs. where the player was actually taken. For example, the "reach factor" for Matt Ryan is -2, since our mock had him going #1, but he actually went #3. (basically, plus is good, minus is bad)

Pick	Original team	AP selection	Actual selection	Reach factor
1	Miami Dolphins	QB Matt Ryan	OT Jake Long	-2
2	St. Louis Rams	OT Jake Long	DE Chris Long	1
3	Atlanta Falcons	DT Glenn Dorsey	QB Matt Ryan	-2
4	Oakland Raiders	DE Chris Long	RB Darren McFadden	2
5	Kansas City Chiefs	DT Sedrick Ellis	DT Glenn Dorsey	-2
6	New York Jets	RB Darren McFadden	DL Vernon Gholston	2
7	New England Patriots	DL Vernon Gholston	DT Sedrick Ellis	1
8	Baltimore Ravens	OT Ryan Clady	DE Derrick Harvey	-4
9	Cincinnati Bengals	OLB Keith Rivers	OLB Keith Rivers	0
10	New Orleans Saints	CB Mike Jenkins	LB Jerod Mayo	-15
11	Buffalo Bills	CB Leodis McKelvin	CB Leodis McKelvin	0
12	Denver Broncos	OT Chris Williams	OT Ryan Clady	-2
13	Carolina Panthers	DE Derrick Harvey	RB Jonathan Stewart	5
14	Chicago Bears	RB Rashard Mendenhall	OT Chris Williams	-9
15	Detroit Lions	OT Jeff Otah	OG Branden Albert	-4
16	Arizona Cardinals	CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie	CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie	0
17	Minnesota Vikings	DE Philip Merling	OL Gosder Cherilus	-15
18	Houston Texans	OG Branden Albert	QB Joe Flacco	3
19	Philadelphia Eagles	FS Kenny Phillips	OT Jeff Otah	-12
20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	WR/RS DeSean Jackson	CB Aqib Talib	-29
21	Washington Redskins	WR Limas Sweed	OT Sam Baker	-32
22	Dallas Cowboys	RB Felix Jones	RB Felix Jones	0
23	Pittsburgh Steelers	OL Gosder Cherilus	RB Rashard Mendenhall	6
24	Tennessee Titans	WR Devin Thomas	RB Chris Johnson	-10
25	Seattle Seahawks	WR Malcolm Kelly	CB Mike Jenkins	-26
26	Jacksonville Jaguars	DE Lawrence Jackson	OT Duane Brown	-2
27	San Diego Chargers	RB Jonathan Stewart	CB Antoine Cason	14
28	Dallas Cowboys	CB Aqib Talib	DE Lawrence Jackson	8
29	San Francisco 49ers	WR Mario Manningham	DT Kentwan Balmer	-53
30	Green Bay Packers	CB Brandon Flowers	TE Dustin Keller	-5
31	New York Giants	LB Jerod Mayo	FS Kenny Phillips	21

32	Miami Dolphins	OT Carl Nicks	DE Philip Merling	-132
33	St. Louis Rams	CB Antoine Cason	WR Donnie Avery	6
34	Atlanta Falcons	QB Brian Brohm	WR Devin Thomas	-22
35	Kansas City Chiefs	WR Jordy Nelson	CB Brandon Flowers	-1
36	New York Jets	DE Quentin Groves	WR Jordy Nelson	-16
37	Atlanta Falcons	OT Sam Baker	ILB Curtis Lofton	16
38	Baltimore Ravens	CB Justin King	TE John Carlson	-63
39	Cincinnati Bengals	DT Kentwan Balmer	OG Chilo Rachal	10
40	New Orleans Saints	LB Dan Connor	CB Tracy Porter	-34
41	Buffalo Bills	TE Martin Rucker	WR James Hardy	-70
42	Denver Broncos	WR Earl Bennett	WR Eddie Royal	-28
43	Carolina Panthers	QB Joe Flacco	SS Marcellous Johnson	25
44	Chicago Bears	OT Duane Brown	RB Matt Forte	18
45	Detroit Lions	DE Calais Campbell	LB Jordon Dizon	-5
46	Cincinnati Bengals	OLB Xavier Adibi	WR Jerome Simpson	-72
47	Minnesota Vikings	OT Anthony Collins	DT Trevor Laws	-65
48	Atlanta Falcons	CB Reggie Smith	TE Fred Davis	-27
49	Philadelphia Eagles	WR James Hardy	WR/RS DeSean Jackson	8
50	Arizona Cardinals	ILB Curtis Lofton	DE Calais Campbell	13
51	Washington Redskins	DT Trevor Laws	WR Malcolm Kelly	4
52	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	CB Tracy Porter	DE Quentin Groves	11
53	Pittsburgh Steelers	OLB Cliff Avril	WR Limas Sweed	-39
54	Tennessee Titans	OG Chilo Rachal	DE Jason Jones	15
55	Seattle Seahawks	TE Fred Davis	RB Ray Rice	7
56	Green Bay Packers	RB Chris Johnson	QB Brian Brohm	32
57	Miami Dolphins	SS Marcellous Johnson	QB Chad Henne	13
58	Jacksonville Jaguars	CB Patrick Lee	WR Dexter Jackson	-2
59	Indianapolis Colts	OG Roy Schuening	C Mike Pollak	-98
60	Green Bay Packers	TE Dustin Keller	CB Patrick Lee	30
61	Dallas Cowboys	WR Eddie Royal	TE Martellus Bennett	19
62	New England Patriots	CB Charles Godfrey	CB Terrence Wheatley	-5
63	New York Giants	DE Jason Jones	CB Terrell Thomas	9

Some random thoughts:

We did pretty well for ourselves, I think, with the first 9 picks, especially given the lag between those picks and the actual draft.

Big props to thatswhatshesaid (#9, Keith Rivers), MAWK (#11, Leodis McKelvin), jimme (#16, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), and primetime (#22, Felix Jones) for being the only 4 posters to hit their picks right on the money. (although, I think that everyone had Felix Jones going to Dallas :)

A lot of reaches in the 1st round for WRs. Perhaps your senses were overcome by the instant impact and undeniable charisma of our very own D-Bowe Show?

Biggest reach would appear to be Carl Nicks at the top of the 2nd. Chris Johnson, Dustin Keller, and Joe Flacco all went way too low.

Jordy Nelson: This pick seemed to cause a ton of hand-wringing in our mock. Cries of "Homer!" and "REAAAACH!" were flung about, but it turns out this selection was pretty much on spot (one higher than where he actually went). Personally, I'm glad we didn't go WR at this pick, but the reaction here on AP was certainly overblown. Now, Martin Rucker, on the other hand, was a reach of Homeric proportions. Apparently, it's all or nothing for MAWK.

What do you guys think?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

0 recs | Comment 10 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Bravo stag

MAWK is a HUGE homer!

by Chris Thorman on Aug 1, 2008 3:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll own up to my miss....

I actually wasn’t swayed by the “DBowe” show in KC last year but more so the perceived WR need being portrayed here in the Bay Area media…..that said, I completely underestimated the off field concerns on Manningham.

I’l try and represent better next year.

Chris, thanks for putting this together.

Cheers,

Daren

Bay Area Royals fan

by darenstevens on Aug 1, 2008 5:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I didn't put it together actually

It was stag. He deserves all the credit.

by Chris Thorman on Aug 1, 2008 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And

I think we had the best community mock draft I’ve ever seen. Seriously.

We may have been off a bit on the picks but th execution of it was unsurpassed in the blogosphere.

by Chris Thorman on Aug 1, 2008 6:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It was me that screwed the pooch with the

Carl Nicks pick for the Dolphins. Next year I’ll play it safe and take the Patriots…LOL we may not have a first round pick.

by Lanier63 on Aug 1, 2008 9:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think...

anyone thought a single WR wouldn’t be taken in the first. But, I think people tend to boast up players from local programs. It’s understandable because we are more familiar, but the bias comes through.

by chiefsfan1384 on Aug 2, 2008 2:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It feels good to be right every once in a while

I made the pick as Tom Bahali of Jordy Nelson, and I wasn’t to far off on the first pick either, I atleast got the position right.

by JasonM on Aug 2, 2008 10:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Same with me as the 'Boys

Got Felix Jones and picked Talib instead of Mike Jenkins—some position though.

I would have to say that it seemed this draft did work out extremely well. I’m not sure if there was anyone that didn’t respond to the e-mail or what not but it all flowed really well. Other people noticed as well.

by Joel Thorman on Aug 2, 2008 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

First off

I rule on McKelvin.

Secondly, you’ll see. You’ll all see. The MotherRucker will destroy all of you and then you’ll be all, “Oh, MAWK, we’re sorry, you’re right, he’s so awesome. Please come and have this sandwich I made for you!”

And I’ll be all, “No! You doubted the MotherRucker and now you must pay. Not only will I not have your sandwich, but I will take your mother Dorothy Mantooth out for a nice steak dinner and never call her again!”

In other news, rookie injuries cause this involuntary thing where it feels like my small intestine is being ripped back, up, and to the right. Anyone else get that after the Albert thing?

by Ridiculous Matt on Aug 2, 2008 12:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs