Brodie Croyle is no Troy Aikman.... Is he?
From the FanPosts. -Chris
Great article by Jon Yoon over at MVN about Brodie Croyle and his unpopularity with the national media. Kind of got me thinking.
I don't know what the grudge the media (and some Chiefs fans) have against Croyle is. Its nearing an unreasoned hatred, as though he was the worst QB prospect to come into the NFL in years, which is clearly ridiculous.
Whenever defending him, we always have to say things like "Well he did better than Peyton Manning or Troy Aikman in their first years starting.... NOT THAT CROYLE IS AT THAT GOOD!" We are always quick to add that last part in so as to try to prove how open minded and unbiased we are, just like people who espouse a religious belief and then quickly try to explain away recorded miracles in scientific or mythological terms so that they don't look ridiculous to non-believers.
Why do we do this? How do we know Croyle can't be a Peyton Manning or Troy Aikman? Well those guys had great stats in college and were high draft picks. Lets ask 'How do we know that Croyle isn't a Joe Montana or Brett Favre or Tom Brady?'
The truth is, NOBODY knew Joe Montana was going to turn into Joe Montana in the NFL, otherwise he would never have fallen to the 3rd round. Nobody knew Tom Brady was going to become possibly the most successful QB in NFL history, otherwise 32 teams wouldn't have passed on him 5 or 6 times. The Atlanta Falcons certainly didn't know Brett Favre was going to be a future Hall of Famer when then head coach Jerry Glanville said it would take a plane crash for him to put Favre into the game and traded him away.
Nobody knows how a college player is going to translate to the NFL. Ryan Leaf was considered by many to be a better QB prospect than Peyton Manning. The Chiefs picked Todd Blackledge over Jim Kelly and the Jets took Ken O'Brien over Dan Marino. Sometimes it takes these young guys to develop and blossom into what they are going to become.
I think Ben Roethlisberger is one of the very few young QBs in recent memory that grabbed the reigns of his team and took off with it never missing a beat. But he was in an unusual situation. The Steelers are probably the most stable and consistently talented teams in the NFL. There was no question of what the teams offensive identity was going to be, it had been the same for 30 years. They had an established offensive line with established running backs and lets face it, Roethlesburger was a quicker study than most.
But the Mannings, Aikmans, Elways and yes, Croyles; found themselves on teams largely devoid of a talented core. It took time for Aikman to develop a relationship with Irvine and have an Emmitt Smith to depend on with a reliable offensive line. It took time for Manning and Harrison and Edgerrin James to all gel together with a reliable offensive line. And it is going to take some time for Croyle, Bowe and LJ (or an unknown future RB) to gel together with a reliable offensive line.
The QB is the most important position on the offensive side of the ball. But one guy can't do it all. Croyle will not be able to block for himself or catch his own passes or plough through the line. The pieces must be around him and they all have to learn to work together.
It seems that the national media has forgotten this. They (and many Chiefs fans) are so easily distracted by shiny things (the overhyped college prospect of the day) that they take for granted that some of the greatest QBs in the NFL were overlooked until they got the chance to prove themselves. Maybe Croyle didn't have the shining college stats playing for the conservative Alabama Crimson Tide that a Matt Leinart playing for a national championship college team had.
But that doesn't matter. What matters is what he does now. I for one am done making excuses for the hope I have in Croyle. I will not be cynical and view him as a failure until he proves me wrong. I will view him as a potential Joe Montana or Brett Favre until he proves he's not.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.
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Unfortunately for Croyle
We can’t wait around him for the next four years to develop, even if our offensive line doesn’t develop.
The fact is that Troy Aikman did have that offensive line. and Peyton did have that offensive line and Elway did have that offensive line. Montana had the benefit of Bill Walsh and a system (WCO) that no one had ever seen before, let alone know how to defend.
Nobody knows how a college player is going to translate to the NFL.
This is true but there are two indicators that translate very well to the NFL in a lot of cases: Games played and completion percentage: both of which Croyle does not measure up to.
Maybe/probably it’s not Croyle’s fault but the odds are extremely stacked against him for success.
by primetime 07 on
Jul 22, 2008 12:09 AM CDT
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Not saying wait 4 years
But the media has tried and convicted him after a handful of games on one of the worst offensive units in the league.
Should we give up on a guy that is failing because of the cast around him? What happens then when he goes to a team that has the cast and thrives? I don’t think you ship John Elway off to another team because he’s having a rough go of it because of a lousey cast. You build the talent around him and give him the opportunity to succeed.
We have no idea if Croyle can be that caliber QB and we never will if we ditch him before the pieces are in place around him. Whether it be Croyle or next years #1 overall draft pick it would be foolish to give up on a guy after a short stint on the worst offensive unit in the league.
by ChiefDJ on
Jul 22, 2008 6:37 AM CDT
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you can wait a long long time for "all the pieces to be in place"
I can make an argument that they haven’t been in place in KC since 1969.
At some point Croyle on his own must prove he belongs in the NFL. And frankly, it pretty much better be this year. Neither Herm Edwards nor Carl Peterson can really afford to give him much more time than that.
by sm7600 on
Jul 22, 2008 8:36 AM CDT
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They won't
They have done everything within reason to surround him with a supporting cast which should give him the ability to grow…if he doesn’t show serious improvement this year, there WILL be a training camp battle next year between Croyle and a newly drafted 1st or 2nd round QB (and if Croyle doesn’t improve, we’ll likely pick in the top 10 again.)
by PVChiefsfan on
Jul 22, 2008 11:09 AM CDT
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I Think You're Right
His line’s not optimal but if he can’t improve with the tools they’ve provided I seriously doubt that he ever will.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 11:42 AM CDT
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Let me get this right...
I just want to make sure that I’m following your logic… you feel that Peyton, Aikman and Elway all had the advantage of superior (not saying great or good, just better than last year’s Chiefs) offensive lines during their first starting campaigns and concede that Croyle was at a significant disadvantage due to his line,. And that Games Played and Completion percentage are measurable that should show translation into the NFL…OK.
Here are Coyles stats for last year
GP PYDS PCT TDs INT RATING
9 1227 56.7 6 6 69.9
Peyton Manning (1998)
GP PYDS PCT TDs INT RATING
16 3739 56.7 26 28 71.2
John Elway (1983)
GP PYDS PCT TDs INT RATING
11 1663 47.5 7 14 54.9
Fun Fact: John Elway’s highest cumulative comp% was 62.3 in ‘93
Troy Aikman (1989)
GP PYDS PCT TDs INT RATING
11 1749 52.9 9 18 55.7
Now one stat, that you didn’t mention, that is also looked at very closely, is the TD/INT ratio. By these stats, at 1:1 Brody is the best of the group, Completion % tied for first, and second in QB rating. Interesting…With these stats in hand, let’s regard your comments as “misinformed”.
Excellent article Chris
by Stone Throwers on
Jul 22, 2008 1:49 PM CDT
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Elway's A Bit Of An Anomaly
Elway’s stats were dragged down by Dan Reeves’ offense (if you could call it that). Granted, he underachieved for the first half of his career but the fact that he blossomed offensively the first year playing for a coach other than Reeves (at the atypical age for progression of 33) indicates that the coach’s approach, not Elway’s ability, was the problem.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 2:01 PM CDT
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Although it would be fair to say
Croyle and Huard were helped brought down by Solari’s scheme?
by Lanier63 on
Jul 22, 2008 2:04 PM CDT
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That Would Be Fair To Say
It’s why I’m not dismissing him already. He doesn’t have that excuse this year, though.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 2:07 PM CDT
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Also...
If you’ll do comparisons on the yards per attempt and yards per completion stats for all of the players you named in their first seasons as starter, you’ll see that Croyles YPC and YPA are significantly lower than Elway, Manning, or Aikman. Simply put, Croyle’s completion percentage is slightly higher because he didn’t put the ball very far downfield…and I suspect that may account for the lower interceptions as well.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 2:06 PM CDT
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However to reiterate what Lanier63 had to say
I’m sure the YPC and YPA had much to do with Solari’s scheme (just as you indicated Elway’s stats were affected by Reeves) – the guy’s TD:INT ratio was low through college, to call last year’s percentage a product of not throwing downfield is kind of throwing out what he did in college… I’ve seen you mention more than once that his college numbers don’t indicate success in the NFL, but StoneThrowers is making a case for his college numbers in this thread…
Bottom line is he needs to show much improvement this season – let’s hope he does, and if not let’s get someone who can perform in next year’s draft…
by KCFanatic on
Jul 22, 2008 5:26 PM CDT
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Ball downfield???
How was Croyle suppossed to put the ball further downfield when our OL looked more like I-70?
by GarySpFc on
Jul 24, 2008 9:11 AM CDT
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Just Saying
Short passes are easier to complete than long passes, regardless of why the QB was throwing short passes. And Croyle’s yards per attempt (5.5) was dead last in the league among QBs with enough appearances to qualify…33rd. Behind Cleo Lemon, Rex Grossman, Tarvaris Jackson, and Kellen Clemens (all of whom sucked last year). So I suspect that his completion percentage was inflated as a result of that.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 24, 2008 12:52 PM CDT
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Dan Reeves
And on an only slightly related tangent, Elway’s performance for the first ten years of his career (as compared to the end of his career) is why I consider Dan Reeves to be probably the most overrated coach in the history of the NFL.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 2:10 PM CDT
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Comp % and GP in college
Translate to the NFL. Sorry if I wasn’t clear on that.
by primetime 07 on
Jul 22, 2008 3:36 PM CDT
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OK... miss understood
YEAR CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2004 44 66 534 66.7 8.09 57 6 0 4 164.63
2005 202 339 2499 59.6 7.37 87 14 4 36 132.78
(Note: college QB rating is not the same as NFL standard)
But let’s not talk raw stats, let’s talk about tradition. Alabama, where Croyle went attended, produced three of the greatest QB’s in NFL history: Bart Starr, Joe Namath, and Ken Stabler. Let’s look at how he compares to them…Second thought let me shorten this… Croyle hold every single career passing record at Alabama! Think about that.
Croyle was drafted in the 3rd round, not because he’s not a proven winner (took Alabama 10-2 in 2005 with a Cotton Bowl win, was named the games MVP and was runner up to Matt Leinert for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm award.), He was labeled as an injury risk. He has torn his MCL in one knee and his ACL in the other… That’s it, that’s why his stock fell; nothing to do with his ability to perform. The guy was a stud… this is what most Chiefs fans don’t know or understand. Herm Edwards knows it. The guys in the Chiefs locker room know it. This is why they won’t change at QB.
Brodie Coyle won just about every college accolade he could. Did I mention he won the Derrick Thomas Community Award in 2003? I have no question that Coyle has the ability to be the next great NFL QB; my only concern is that if the O-Line can’t jell he may not stay healthy enough to do it.
by Stone Throwers on
Jul 22, 2008 4:58 PM CDT
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Tradition
Alabama, where Croyle went attended, produced three of the greatest QB’s in NFL history: Bart Starr, Joe Namath, and Ken Stabler.
I’m sorry but that’s completely irrelevant. Namath, Starr and Stabler came out of Alabama 30 years ago, from a different coach in a different era. And the fact that they share an alma mater has no bearing on whether Brodie Croyle can play. As for the records he holds, you’re comparing a guy from a passing era to guys from a no-passing era. Croyle threw for 6,832 yards in four years. That’s a two year total for most good passers in college…the only reason he holds the school passing records is because Alabama hasn’t turned out a good QB for 30 years.
P.S. Joe Namath is the most overrated QB of all time.
He was labeled as an injury risk. He has torn his MCL in one knee and his ACL in the other… That’s it, that’s why his stock fell; nothing to do with his ability to perform.
He was labeled as an injury risk because he is an injury risk…two blown knees in four years clearly qualifies him as an injury risk. He missed all but one game of his senior season in high school because he blew out his ACL. He separated his shoulder in the fifth game of his sophomore year and cracked two ribs. He played three games his junior year because he blew out his other ACL. He missed games last season because of injury. I have no idea why you think this is somehow irrelevant to the ability to perform, since players don’t generally perform better when hurt and aren’t performing at all when they miss games (or seasons). And Croyle’s been hurt a lot and missed a lot of games in his football career.
The guy was a stud… this is what most Chiefs fans don’t know or understand.
Based on what? He’s never had a season where he’s been spectacular. He’s never had a season, in college or the pros where he’s been comparable to Brian Brohm, or Matt Leinart, or Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady. He hasn’t even had a pro season comparable to an average year by Aaron Brooks (who’s nobody’s idea of a Hall of Famer). There is no objective case to be made for Croyle being great because the numbers aren’t there to back it up…he was a college QB who had a solid but unspectacular senior year while playing on a very good team and who hasn’t posted numbers that should knock anyone out.
Brodie Coyle won just about every college accolade he could.
So what? Gino Torretta and Andre Ware won the Heisman and they were rotten NFL QBs. Awards in college are popularity contests, not objective measures of a player’s ability.
Did I mention he won the Derrick Thomas Community Award in 2003?
Doing community work may make Croyle a good guy but it does not have any bearing on an individual’s ability to run an NFL offense.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 5:41 PM CDT
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I’m sorry but that’s completely irrelevant. Namath, Starr and Stabler came out of Alabama 30 years ago, from a different coach in a different era. And the fact that they share an alma mater has no bearing on whether Brodie Croyle can play. As for the records he holds, you’re comparing a guy from a passing era to guys from a no-passing era. Croyle threw for 6,832 yards in four years. That’s a two year total for most good passers in college…the only reason he holds the school passing records is because Alabama hasn’t turned out a good QB for 30 years.
The fact they are from the same school DOES matter a great deal. Colleges are well known for having a traditional offensive identity that coaches that are brought there are expected to continue.
You wouldn’t expect a QB from Arkansas to have passing stats that are comparable to a QB from BYU for instance. Alabama has always had a certain identity. Mike Shula, the head coach of Alabama during Croyles time there, was an Alabama alumni and was carrying on the tradition. The fact that Croyle had better stats than other QBs that became great NFL players is significant. Who knows how much better Croyle could have done in an offense that was less conservative.
by ChiefDJ on
Jul 22, 2008 8:37 PM CDT
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That's A Thoroughly Ridiculous Argument
You might as well claim that Jay Barker, Tyler Watts, and Freddie Kitchens are all NFL-caliber QBs too because they went to Alabama. In fact, Mike Shula was an Alabama QB (and the son of a Hall of Fame coach)...why did he flame out if Alabama QBs make such great pro quarterbacks?
There are no magical properties about the University of Alabama that somehow make their quarterbacks better pro prospects than any other Division I schools’ QBs. A quarterback is as good as his stats, and the stats that count for pro prospects most often are completion percentage, games played and TD/INT ratio and Croyle was nothing special on all counts at the college level and didn’t do anything to prove that he was special as a starter in the NFL last year.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 9:25 PM CDT
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Don't twist what I'm saying
I never said Alabama was a NFL QB-growing hotbed.
I said there is a huge difference in how different colleges traditionally run their programs and a team like Alabama that is a running team, always has been, probably always will be and that a QB from that school is not going to have the outstanding numbers that a player from a team that passes all the time is going to have.
So if Croyle passes 1/2 what other teams do, its not unbelievable that his stats are going to be half what that other QBs are.
by ChiefDJ on
Jul 22, 2008 9:39 PM CDT
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And If All Alabama QBs Are Held Back By Their Offense
Then it’s not a notable accomplishment for Croyle to exceed their passing marks, nor is it a sign that he’s capable of playing the NFL. You’re claiming that someone who’s the best of a mediocre lot (and Alabama QBs since Stabler have been either mediocre or terrible college QBs) is somehow on a par with guys who have shown themselves to be very capable passers. You’re giving him credit for what you perceive as his potential, not on what he’s actually demonstrated he can do.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 9:55 PM CDT
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Its all relative
Just because he is playing in a restrictive offense doesn’t mean he has no talent.
Of course Im giving him credit for his potential. Thats all we have to go by. He played very well considering the team he had at Alabama. Look at what they did before and since he left.
In the NFL he was an inexperienced guy with an inexperienced Offensive Coordinator playing behind a veteran line 3/5 of which knew they wouldn’t be on the team the next year and 4th and 5th string RBs. QBs with steller college careers like Manning, Aikman, Elways, etc. did no better in similar situations their first year in the NFL.
by ChiefDJ on
Jul 23, 2008 6:41 AM CDT
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Yes, But
Just because he is playing in a restrictive offense doesn’t mean he has no talent.
This is certainly true, but he did nothing in college to indicate that his ceiling was anything more than that of a slightly above-average college QB. And slightly above-average college QBs generally don’t make good pro quarterbacks, much less franchise quarterbacks.
He played very well considering the team he had at Alabama.
His team went 10-2 his senior season. They had a very solid defense led by DeMeco Ryans (check the scores for that season…Alabama did an excellent job keeping other teams from scoring), and Croyle had running backs who went over 1,000 yards with very respectable yards per carry in both his sophomore and senior seasons (he missed all but three games of his junior year with injury). So you can stop saying he was held back by his team…he wasn’t. Alabama was an outstanding team during his senior season and he had talent on offense the entire time he was a starter. Their biggest weakness was that they didn’t have a good backup QB when Croyle went down in 2004 (as evidenced by their win-loss record that year and Pennington’s and Guillon’s terrible numbers).
Look at what they did before and since he left.
The team won four games his sophomore year. So if you want to give him all the credit for helping Alabama win, he deserves all of the blame when they sucked. Also, they won 6 games in 2005 when he missed all but three games (all blowouts against bad teams in which the ground game was more of a factor than Croyle’s passing). They beat a ranked team (Southern Miss) without him. Who gets credit for that improvement? Certainly not Croyle.
In the NFL he was an inexperienced guy with an inexperienced Offensive Coordinator playing behind a veteran line 3/5 of which knew they wouldn’t be on the team the next year and 4th and 5th string RBs.
Solari was an incompetent coordinator, not just an inexperienced one. That and the lack of other viable options are the only reason I think Croyle deserves a shot to start this year and it’s the only reason to assume that his stats last season weren’t representative of his ability as an NFL player.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 23, 2008 7:38 AM CDT
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Also
You wouldn’t expect a QB from Arkansas to have passing stats that are comparable to a QB from BYU for instance.
That’s correct, that’s why there hasn’t been a good NFL QB from Alabama in 30 years and there’s been several from BYU.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 9:27 PM CDT
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Arkansas
Have they ever turned out a pro QB?
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 9:56 PM CDT
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Touche
Meant a guy who actually played QB in the pros. :)
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 23, 2008 9:28 AM CDT
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And Man, Was Jones A Rotten Pick
The guy had all the tools to be a very good NFL WR, but apparently no work ethic or interest in improving. No wonder he was always in Del Rio’s doghouse.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 23, 2008 9:29 AM CDT
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That sucks too
I was really looking forward to seeing him excel.
He’s still the best player on the Jags in Madden ‘08.
by primetime 07 on
Jul 23, 2008 10:26 AM CDT
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I Traded For Him On Madden
Mid 90s speed and a “Spectacular Catch” receiver. I pumped up his “Hands” rating in training then used him as my third receiver…the one who runs the deep routes on the normal and strong slot formations. He’s vicious at getting separation on the defensive backs or going over the top of them and he rarely drops passes.
Yet another reason why Madden ratings shouldn’t be trusted in real life :)
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 23, 2008 11:07 AM CDT
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re: Roethlisberger
He had a power running game, exceptional offensive line and the benefit of simply not making mistakes.
His first year he was only impressive as a QB in that he didn’t make those game crippling mistakes.
by primetime 07 on
Jul 22, 2008 12:09 AM CDT
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QB's
This year will tell us what we need to know about Croyle. I don’t care how bad the team is, if he doesn’t perform he is most likely done in KC as the starter. I keep hearing Thigpen pop up and that there hopefully will put pressure on Croyle to perform. If not maybe Thigpen is the guy we’re looking for. At this point it is all speculation anyway.
by cmpotter on
Jul 22, 2008 12:26 AM CDT
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Doubt It
He’s a division 1-AA guy who wasn’t a great performer. And he couldn’t beat out Tarvaris Jackson in Minnesota for a job and Jackson sucks.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 8:46 AM CDT
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Agreed, Thigpen won't push Croyle
I will be rooting for Brodie this year, but I don’t think he deserves more. We need to get someone in here next year to push him, successful this year or not. Maybe he is the next Montana, and I’ll be the first to jump on his bandwagon if he is, but his college career doesn’t make me confident that will happen. I’ll refrain from bashing this year and give the guy a chance based mostly on the fact that he had a short season last year with no offensive support (and he does have a good arm), but he has a lot to prove, starting with can he win a game.
by KCFanatic on
Jul 22, 2008 9:55 AM CDT
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I Hope He Does Well Too
I’m certainly not rooting for the guy to fail because that would not help the Chiefs if he does flame out. And if he succeeds I’ll be happy and cheering for him. But in all honesty, I just don’t see what he’s accomplished to justify the faith the team’s put in him. He was a slightly above-average college passer with a pretty substantial injury history who wasn’t that much of a focal point for his teams. That’s not usually a recipe for NFL success.
Honestly, I think that people often talk themselves into believing this guy is better than he is simply because he was selected with a 3rd round pick and because Peterson and Edwards keep calling him the “QB of the future”. But based on Peterson’s track record with drafted QBs, I don’t think he’s got a clue whether this guy’s got the ability to perform…which wouldn’t be such a huge problem except that he’s compounded the consequences of that uncertainty by not bringing in serious competition for Croyle this year.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 10:10 AM CDT
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focal point for his teams?
I think he might have been the only decent offensive player for the Tide the year they went 10-2 and won the Cotton Bowl (in which he was the co-MVP)
His 2,499 passing yards in 2005 were the highest single-season total in Alabama’s school history. His total 202 completions and 339 passing attempts rank as the second-best seasonal marks in school annals.[1] His 2,311 yards of total offense were the third-best seasonal mark in the history of the school, and his 1.18 interception percentage was the lowest single-season mark in school history as well.[1]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brodie_Croyle
I think he is worth a 16-game chance…
by PVChiefsfan on
Jul 22, 2008 11:13 AM CDT
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In 2005
He had Kenneth Darby as his running back (1242 yards, 5.2 ypc, 3 TDs) and Tim Castille (7 rushing TDs). In 2003 (he missed most of his junior year with injury) he had Shaud Williams (1367 yds, 4.9 ypc) and Ray Hudson (490 yds, 4.9 ypc). Croyle was not the focal point of that offense…it was a balanced attack and the strength of that team was the defense (led by DeMeco Ryans).
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 11:29 AM CDT
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Hopefully thats what we'll end up with in KC
A nice balanced attack (DBowe and LJ – or another RB) and the strength of the team being defense (led by Glenn Dorsey). IF thats what we end up with, AND Croyle somehow does what he did his senior year consistantly then we should be looking good. Lots of IFs and ANDs out there though. We’ll see, he’s getting his chance, if he doesn’t blow it then great – if he does we need to be prepared to try and land Chase in the middle of the first round next year =)
by KCFanatic on
Jul 22, 2008 12:12 PM CDT
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Chase Daniels Is Not A First-Rounder
He may turn out to be a very good QB, but the risks involved with him probably merit him being taken more in the 3rd or 4th round. He’s on the short side for an NFL QB and he runs his plays almost exclusively out of the shotgun (which won’t fly in the NFL) so his footwork on drops is going to be questionable.
Like I said, I’ll be happy if he ends up with the Chiefs, but not if they get him with a 1st or 2nd rounder (especially if there are better players available that also fit our needs).
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 12:44 PM CDT
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I was actually misquoting you on that...
You had mentioned you saw Chase as a mid-rounder in a different thread, I mis-quoted that as mid-first-rounder lol – my bad, and point taken.
by KCFanatic on
Jul 22, 2008 5:32 PM CDT
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Chase
I love Chase Daniel and I am a huge a Tigers fan. The problem is with that when he goes to the combine he is really only 5’11” and he is a system quarterback. He is never up under the center which is where he will have to play in the NFL. He won’t be a first rounder because of that. That draft will be quarterback heavy also.
by cmpotter on
Jul 22, 2008 5:58 PM CDT
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I Think He's Got Potential
Because he can certainly complete passes, but I also think he’s very much a developmental QB for his first couple of years.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 6:41 PM CDT
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Agreed
I was just saying he will get knocked for his size and the fact he plays exclusively out of the shot gun. Other than that he is a winner and cool under pressure. He may be similar to Drew Brees. I would take a chance with him.
by cmpotter on
Jul 22, 2008 10:30 PM CDT
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I'm Not Sure About Comparisons
Daniels is kind of an unusual QB in that he’s played his entire career in an offensive system where he runs almost everything from the shotgun. I’m not knowledgeable enough to identify any other college QBs who’ve come from a similar situation and made the transition to a pro-style offense. If anyone can point one out I’d appreciate it.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 10:46 PM CDT
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However
I won’t be highly annoyed if they get him in the 2nd round. I would if they got him in the first. With your first rounder, you should snag a player that you’re absolutely convinced will be a building block for your team…particularly if you’re picking earlier in the round instead of later.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 12:46 PM CDT
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Wha?
So the QB never does anything himself, he gets it to his playmakers.
The WRs had good stats, but that doesn’t reflect on Croyle, who was throwing the passes? I guess that means Marvin Harrison is a great WR, but Peyton Manning isn’t the focal point of the Colts.
The Crimson Tide have historically been a predominantly running offense. The fact that Croyle could throw the ball 50 yards down the field when the defense stacked the box against the run didn’t have an effect on the RBs having success?
Let’s not take away from the guy just to try to make your point.
by ChiefDJ on
Jul 22, 2008 8:46 PM CDT
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And Let's Not Give The Guy Credit For Things He Hasn't Accomplished
We can go back and forth on the what-ifs, but the fact is that Croyle didn’t post impressive passing numbers in college. The fact is that he didn’t post stats in college comparable with QBs who have become excellent pros (especially when you adjust for era). The fact is that he has been injury-prone throughout his career and we may infer from that that he will probably be injury-prone in the future. The fact is that he had a very underwhelming season last year and he has never, in his college or pro career demonstrated in his performance that he possesses this great future as a passer that you seem to think he has.
If you choose to believe that Croyle is going to turn into a franchise QB, that’s your prerogative and I respect your optimism…but it’s an optimism predicated primarily on personal faith, not objective analysis.
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 9:06 PM CDT
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I'm not giving him credit for anything
Because he hasn’t done anything.
But you keep harping on the college stats when they are an extremely unreliable measure. He played in a conservative running offense which means something completely different in college as it does in the NFL.
Also passing stats for teams that pass alot in college can be overblown because most of the CBs are future accountants instead of NFL talent. This explains why so many guys with brilliant college stats bust out in the NFL when they are facing higher levels of competition.
We can talk injuries all day long and that is a good argument. However, injuries have nothing to do with talking about pure talent. Donovan McNabb is extremely injury prone, but is still a great QB. If Croyle has frequent injuries, he’s probably not going to be the guy. But Trent Green was labeled “injury prone” before he came to the Chiefs and started 70 consecutive games.
What does optimism hurt? I don’t have the ability to decide whether he plays or not. As a fan, my only job is to root for my team. Croyle DOES have potential. I noticed him long before the Chiefs drafted him. Stats can be skewed by the offense you are playing in and the talent around you (and the O-line at Alabama was worse than the one the Chiefs had last year).
If you watch college football, you know that there is an enormous difference in talent level amongst the players. Would Brodie Croyle had much better stats in LSU or USCs offenses with those star caliber players rather than the limited talent and offensive scheming he had at Alabama? I think its safe to say yes.
So don’t put too much into those stats and you can’t expect miracles from a guy starting out on a catastrophically poor team with 4th and 5th string RBs. Even players wjho would eventually be as great as Aikman, Elway and Manning could not overcome their own inexperience and poor players around them.
by ChiefDJ on
Jul 22, 2008 9:34 PM CDT
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College Stats
Also passing stats for teams that pass alot in college can be overblown because most of the CBs are future accountants instead of NFL talent.
Overall passing yardage is overblown in pass heavy offenses in college. Not so much completion percentage. The ability to hit a receiver is the ability to hit a receiver no matter what level you play at (because that’s about accuracy), but passing yardage can be skewed when you have a lot of attempts that cover for a QB who doesn’t do a great job of hitting his receivers.
That’s why you focus on a college QBs completion percentage and their TD/INT ratios. If you look at the current franchise QBs who made it in the NFL you’ll see that almost all of them had completion percentages well over 60%. The college QBs with percentages below that almost never make it in the NFL (and I’ve only found one that had a terrible completion percentage in college and was still a franchise QB in the NFL).
However, injuries have nothing to do with talking about pure talent.
The most talented player in the NFL is useless to his team if he’s not able to stay on the field. That’s why injury histories matter so much…the risk of a player’s injury history has to be measured against a realistic assessment of the benefits that player can bring to the team, and currently Croyle’s risks aren’t sufficiently outweighed by what he’s demonstrated. We’ll see this year, though.
But Trent Green was labeled "injury prone" before he came to the Chiefs and started 70 consecutive games.
Fair enough, and maybe Croyle will turn it around like Green did. Maybe not. We’ll see this year.
What does optimism hurt?
Optimism is a positive thing. Basing that optimism on leaps of faith unsupported by any objective evidence isn’t if you’re trying to realistically assess the chances of a football team.
I don’t have the ability to decide whether he plays or not.
Well, neither do any of us, but we post stuff here with the expectation that disagreements and debates will take place (which is a large part of the reason we do it). I’m not arguing with what you write because I hate you or want to bring you down or anything like that (because frankly I think you’re an okay guy and I enjoy doing this back and forth with you)...I argue because I like to debate sports. :)
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.
by UCrawford on
Jul 22, 2008 10:12 PM CDT
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On optimism and objective evidence
Note: I’ll have to jump in with a comment now that I’m done with work because you’ve worn down everyone else, UC. :-)
Historical data doesn’t always lead to a linear projection into the future. I train project managers for a living and tomorrow I’ll be teaching them about earned value calculations. The premise is based on the project continuing at the same rate to the end of the project. Granted, it’s a starting point, but there are limitations regarding that assumption.
You have even argued that contracts should be more futures-based and less about rewards for past performance that won’t be repeated. So there must be a curve involved—one that declines toward the end of a career. If we can also agree that a rookie probably doesn’t peak in the first year, then there must be a curve that will show improvement at some point.
Regression analysis could point to factors that are the best predictors based on college performance – such as completion percentage, TD/INT ratio and number of games played. But the validity of even those factors will have its limits.
At some point, one must mix historical data with intuition, hunches and a feel for the future. ...I just know that line is coming back at me in a gray box. :-) ... When will the line for a future projection make a turn? When will stock prices change? Judgment is used to evaluate and estimate what will happen in the future. Project performance-to-date is one indicator. But an excellent project manager uses expert judgment to consider the intangibles. And if future performance could be judged by simply plugging in key variables, we wouldn’t have to wait three years to see who’s a star and who’s a bust in the NFL.
Blind optimism or too much emotion get in the way of making good estimates about the future. On the other hand, using only raw data/statistics can also lead a person astray. Glad to have a balance on this site. It would probably make a good case study related to the book The Wisdom of Crowds. ...Excellent discussion, all! And I say, bring on a continued stream of objective optimism. It’s more fun. And ultimately, I am a fan to have fun.
by sunny D on
Jul 22, 2008 10:37 PM CDT
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I Agree With Pretty Much Everything You've Said
You have even argued that contracts should be more futures-based and less about rewards for past performance that won’t be repeated.
Sort of…my argument was more that it’s already a futures market and that the more successful teams in the NFL already treat contracts that way. They recognize that the value of a deal is in not overpaying a veteran for what he’s already achieved but on what he can reasonably be expected to achieve. I think a large part of the Chiefs’ problem the last 10 years is that Peterson operates on the opposite premise because he hands out the biggest contracts to vets who are either past their prime or getting close.
At some point, one must mix historical data with intuition, hunches and a feel for the future
I completely agree, it’s kind of like Malcolm Gladwell suggested in “Blink”...there are factors that aren’t readily apparent that are important in making these decisions and valuations as well. My point, however, is that too often I think we attach value to things that truly don’t matter (Heismans, positional awards, activities or lifestyles off field that have no bearing on football readiness or performance) and as a result that tends to skew our perception of measurables. Like with Croyle, cmpotter brought up the community awards he got at Alabama. That may make Croyle a nice guy (and I get the impression he is a nice guy) but that’s also got little relevance to whether or not he can hit a receiver in stride 20 yards down the field or avoid throwing into double coverage off his back foot. One really has no connection to the other but we often treat unequal pieces of information for evaluation as if they possess equal weight and it skews our perceptions and conclusions. But I agree that sometimes intuition has its place too and I certainly have my opinions I’ll form on football that don’t have a backing in statistical analysis or sometimes any serious analysis (although I try to make a distinction when I’m doing that).
I’m not sure if I’m rambling here because it’s getting late and I can’t tell anymore. :) But I do agree with what you say overall. And I’ll check out that book you mentioned too because it sounds as if it’s something I’d find interesting.
But the validity of even those factors will have its limits.
This is also true. Two examples I’ve found of this would probably be Andre Ware and Brett Favre. Favre’s college numbers were a textbook example of what you don’t look for in a college QB, and yet his pro numbers were stellar (although he’s the only player I could find that made that leap). Ware, on the other hand had very solid completion, TD/INT, and games played stats and should have been able to translate that into the pros but for some reason couldn’t. Sometimes busts and successes just happen without any discernable cause. But I’d still posit that in the long run you’re better off gameplanning around the higher probability payoff than waiting for the miracle to happen :)
Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.


