I Love the Smell of Roster Cuts in the Morning

by Chris Thorman on Jul 21, 2008 6:00 AM CDT in 2008 Off Season Comment 22 comments

Smells like...training camp!

The Kansas City Chiefs currently have 86 players on their roster, meaning they'll have to cut six by the time training camp starts on Thursday. Until this season, the minimum used to be higher than 80 players but with the folding of NFL Europe, teams now have on average eight players less to take to camp. Before, teams could take those extra eight players and ship them off to NFL Europe before the regular season roster deadlines would hit.

By August 26th, teams will have to trim their roster to 75 players and by August 30th the roster has to be down to the regular season maximum of 53 players.

So, six need to go. Who are they? Who knows, really. Here's a rundown by position, using a blogger's best friend - a list! I've also put the number of cuts next to each position. Predicting cuts is a terribly inexact science, so I'm hoping for a lively debate. In fact, you can make solid arguments against some of my choices below.

Quarterback (0) - The Chiefs only have three quarterbacks on the roster now, which means they're almost assuredly taking all three currently on the roster to camp with them. You'd even like to have four QBs but it doesn't appear that's going to happen before camp. No cuts from this group.

Potential pre-training camp cuts: None

Fullback (0) - I think the Chiefs will take all four fullbacks to camp but only one will be on the regular season starting roster. They're all safe for now.

Potential pre-training camp cuts: None

Offensive line (1) - Of the fourteen offensive linemen on the roster, five of them will be starters and we know who they are - McIntosh, Albert, Jones, Niswanger and Waters. That leaves nine and we'll need at least one backup in each spot for the regular season. That leaves four guys out and here's a guess on who they are - Tre Stallings, Ken Shackleford, Travis Leffew and LJ Anderson. Stallings has been on a couple of practice squads before so maybe he has a chance to make it but I don't think so. The Chiefs probably take almost all of these guys to camp but four will likely have to go for the regular season. One possible cut here but I doubt it.

Potential pre-training camp cuts: Travis Leffew, Ken Shackleford, Tre Stallings, Edwin Harrison, L.J. Anderson or Rob Smith.

Tight End (0) - Of the five tight ends on the roster, Tony Gonzalez is a definite yes, followed by Brad Cottam and maybe Michael Allan to make the final roster. The Chiefs will have at least two tight ends on the active roster and may keep another one on the practice squad. In fact, we'll likely end up with three on the final roster, with the last spot going to a big time blocking tight end. For now, I think all of them make it to training camp because of the uncertainty surrounding who will be our blocking tight end.

Potential pre-training camp cuts: None

Wide Receiver (2) - We have a glut of wide receivers now (nine total) and I think two of these guys are definitely gone. This is an expendable position because of the preference of defensive players over offensive ones to play on special teams. A couple of these guys won't be able to hang on as a special teamer. I think Kevin McMahan and Jabari Arthur bite it from this group because of their "Who the hell am I?" status. You can also throw Bobby Sippio in there as well. The guy didn't catch a pass last year and sat on the practice squad for a little over a week with no interest from other NFL teams who were allowed to sign him at any point during that time.

Potential pre-training camp cuts: Jabari Arthur, Kevin McMahan or Bobby Sippio.

Running back (0) - Johnson, Battle, Smith, Charles, Savage and McCrae all make the training camp squad but only three make it to the regular season. Savage, Battle and McCrae will be the odd men out come September. The Chiefs have solid #1 and #2 backs with Charles and Johnson but I think they're unsure beyond that. That explains the glut of solid backups.

Potential pre-training camp cuts: None but leaning toward one of these guys being let go this week. That's a lot of running backs.

Corner back (1) - There are nine CBs on the squad now and a lot of uncertainty after Surtain, Flowers and Carr on the depth chart. Herm and co. will probably take all but one of these guys to River Falls, with a few others being cut by September. Expect some to stick around strictly as special teamers.

Potential pre-training camp cuts: Will Poole, Jason Horton or Maurice Legget.

Linebacker (1) - There are ten linebackers on the roster and two tiers have clearly developed. The top tier is Derrick Johnson, Donnie Edwards, Demorrio Williams and Nap Harris. Below that are a half dozen special teams/backup types, almost all of whom will be on the practice squad or strictly special teams. The numbers don't require the Chiefs to cut many here, so just one probably goes from this group.

Potential pre-training camp cuts: Steve Octavien, E.J. Kuale, Nate Harris, Weston Dacus or LeRue Rumph.

Defensive Ends (1) - The Chiefs haven't settled on their Jared Allen replacement because they have seven defensive ends currently on the roster. Because of the large number of players at this position, I think one of these guys doesn't make it to River Falls. Turk McBride, Tamba Hali and Alfonso Boone are locks to make the team, with UDFAs rounding out the rest of the crop.

Potential pre-training camp cuts: Trevor Johnson, Johnny Dingle or Jason Parker.

Defensive Tackles (0) - All six d-tackles will be going to River Falls, considering that six isn't really that many to have on the roster at this point. The rotational nature of the position means you'll always have a few extra around, making it easier to slip into camp as an UDFA. Dorsey, Edwards and Tank likely make up the starting three.

Potential pre-training camp cuts: None

Kicker (0) - Do you think Herm Edwards will ever go into camp with less than two kickers after the disappointment Justin Medlock was last year? Novak and Barth both go and I'm not sure which one makes it out as the starter.

Potential pre-training camp cuts: None

Safety (0) - Safety is another good position for filling special teams. Page and Pollard are the starters and Herm's boy John McGraw is also a lock to make the team. DaJuan Morgan is another lock and a future starting contender.

Potential pre-training camp cuts: None

Those are my general positions that I think the cuts will come from. They're based on a mixture of number at that position, stability of the starters and historical precedent.

Your thoughts on who stays and who goes this week before camp starts?

1 recs | Comment 22 comments

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Comments

Thoughts

I think Barth makes it as kicker. He’s been nothing but consistent the last two years in college (which Medlock was anything but). I think Savage makes the roster in September.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Jul 21, 2008 7:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

As a RB? Or return guy?

I don’t think Kolby Smith’s job is safe with guys like Savage behind him.

by Chris Thorman on Jul 21, 2008 8:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

I am not sure Charles or Savage could carry the ball 20+ times if LJ went down…that is where Kolby-Wan will secure his job, as the potential workhorse if there is an injury to the Centaur.

by PVChiefsfan on Jul 21, 2008 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

After LJ, Kobly is basically the only guy who could carry the ball that many times.

by Chris Thorman on Jul 21, 2008 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Return Guy

I think he ends up doing returns and is the emergency backup. Battle hasn’t shown much since he’s been here and McCrae’s as close to a nobody as you’re going to see. I think the Chiefs keep four running backs, just in case LJ’s not 100 percent.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Jul 21, 2008 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kolby Makes It Too

He showed flashes of being a solid back in case there are problems with LJ. I think he did enough last year to stick around unless he shows up to camp just incredibly out of shape or they find him in a motel room with a dead hooker.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Jul 21, 2008 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who's Kobly?

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Jul 21, 2008 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Savage

After last season and Gaileys reputation for pounding the ball, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if we ended up carrying 4 RBs on the roster. I think Savage could be that 4th guy, especially if he can play some on special teams.

They’re never going to give LJ anywhere close to the number of touches they did a couple years ago. If they want to run the ball as much as Herm wants to, they’re going to have to have a lot of backs.

by ChiefDJ on Jul 21, 2008 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Agree

And four RBs is common sense when you’ve got one coming off a fairly major injury. Until Larry Johnson is able to perform capably this season in a game that counts, he’s very much a question mark.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Jul 21, 2008 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My 8 cuts this week

Arthur, Jabari WR
McMahan, Kevin WR
McRae, Kalvin RB
Jackson, Steven FB
Harrison, Edwin G

Burns, Khayyam S
Dacus, Weston LB
Parker, Jason DE

Good write-up, Chris. Agreed that Herm never goes to camp with only one new kicker again.
P.S. I think Kolby is a lock, agreeing with PV’s logic.

by sunny D on Jul 21, 2008 8:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Kick return game

I will definitely be watching the kick returns in pre-season and hating any fair catches. One of the cool things in pre-season is that returners know they only have so many chances to break a big one, so they are reluctant to fair catch. The irony is that a fair catch may be the smart move, so they could get criticized for making a bad decision. However, everyone – coaches included – will know why they didn’t fair catch.

Anyway, Sams vs. Robinson is one of the more interesting match-ups. Could Sams suffer from Drummond being a veteran and being a bust? Could that give the psychological edge to Robinson? (In the same way that rookie Medlock’s bust may hurt Barth?) Charles will be fun to watch on kick-off returns, too.

I’m predicting we go young… Robinson on punts, Robinson with Charles on kick-offs. Hope it’s not Webb. And Barth as the kicker, because he has the opposite traits from Medlock. Medlock was a gunslinger; Barth is a method guy.

by sunny D on Jul 21, 2008 9:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Sams

He’s about a carbon copy of Eddie Drummond. He’s got a broken leg in his injury history and nobody was particularly interested in him last year (when plenty of teams, including the Chiefs, needed decent kick returners). I think he ends up being one of the September roster cuts.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Jul 21, 2008 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

he was insurance in case we didn’t draft a WR/CB who was also a return specialist.

by PVChiefsfan on Jul 21, 2008 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't Surprise Me

If Sams didn’t even make it to training camp. He’s basically just a 27 year old return guy who’s got no other position, who played in one game last season and who hasn’t played a full season since 2004. Since the focus this year is on building for the future, and since he’s not likely to be an elite guy in another year or two, there’s not much of a point in keeping him around unless Robinson and whoever else are simply incapable of returning kicks.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Jul 21, 2008 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You may be right actually

In fact, I’d say he’s a top contender to be cut.

by Chris Thorman on Jul 21, 2008 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They'll look at Sams

To be the contrarian, I’ll bet Sams makes it to camp and gets a couple shots at returns in the first two preseason games. I think they just want to see what they’ve got before they let him go. Returners must be tough to evaluate in practice, and then have a very small sample size to make a determination during preseason. Let’s hope for some defensive stops (punt returns – although I guess I’d rather see some forced turnovers) and offensive scores (kick returns.)

Regarding the small number of chances, if someone happens to shoot through and tackle Dante Hall by the shoelaces as he’s reversing field against Denver, he’s got a very different legacy.

by sunny D on Jul 21, 2008 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why Would They Even Care

The biggest thing the Chiefs are trying to do this year is plug in a bunch of young players and see where they fit. With Sams, they already know where he’d fit…he’s a kick returner who has no other position. With Dante Hall they were able to use him as a receiver. Possibly the same deal with Robinson or Franklin…both have more potential utility for them. With Sams, he’s just an aging return guy who hasn’t been able to play a full season in 4 years, who is pretty much a known quantity and who nobody wanted last year. And those guys are basically a dime a dozen (in fact, even if we cut Sams we’ll probably be able to get him back later). With Franklin or Robinson they could easily be as good as Sams this year and even if they aren’t they have more potential to improve or to bring other skills to the table if they don’t pan out as kick returners.

Simply put, trotting one 27 year old kick returner out there to get slightly better field position isn’t going to make or break the Chiefs’ this season…so why not see if younger players can be more effective?

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Jul 21, 2008 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Potential and utillity

Those are good reason to give an edge to youth. (Yes, Trent, we are out of the closet this year when it comes to advantage given to youth. No hiding it.)

You also make the case that Sams is not an elite returner. (You may cough or laugh that I even said that.)

Let’s say there was a Jason Taylor of returners out there this year. (Hey, dancing could be considered off-season training for return guys… But I digress.) What’s the life expectancy of return guys? Are we searching and grooming someone who will stay in the job for the next 4-5 years? I’d argue not as much as most other positions. So if there is an excellent return guy who can greatly improve our field position this year, I’d consider abandoning the youth angle for that position in order to keep us in and win a few games this year. Then get a return guy next year. He’d be “fresh.”

So put Sams out there and find out if this is his year. He’s “only” 27. While I have high hopes for the others, it’s not like any of the young guys are proven in the NFL. Robinson had excellent numbers at his school. Will it translate to the NFL? Let ‘em go compete. I’d say there are probably enough other guys the staff knows will not make the team, that they can afford to keep Sams in the first group of 80. And if Savage or Franlkin happens to rise from the ashes of competition, great! Especially with their added utility, as you pointed out.

by sunny D on Jul 21, 2008 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But Who Would He Replace?

Are we searching and grooming someone who will stay in the job for the next 4-5 years? I’d argue not as much as most other positions. So if there is an excellent return guy who can greatly improve our field position this year, I’d consider abandoning the youth angle for that position in order to keep us in and win a few games this year.

I agree that kick returners are fairly easy to replace. The difference between a good one and an average one is pretty small. But considering the limitations on the roster, given the choice between a good kick returner who is only going to be able to return kicks (Sams) and an average kick returner who may be able to develop into a solid receiver or defensive back or an eventually great kick returner, I’d much rather go with the young guy with potential and see what he can produce. Especially since the Chiefs aren’t going to be competitive enough this year for a guy like Sams to make that much of a difference in the final result. If the Chiefs were championship contenders this year and a good KR could push them over the top, I’d probably reconsider that position, but the fact is that they just aren’t…that’s at least another year or two off, so there’s no reason not to go as young as possible in that position for this year.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on Jul 21, 2008 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Sams will be a later cut

The returner is kind of in the same boat as the FG kicker last year. We don’t ever want to go through being stuck with a reject back there again.

They’ll be rooting for the rookie Robinson, but I don’t think they’re just going to hand the job over to him without competition. They’ll keep Sams around until they’re sure Robinson can do the job.

by ChiefDJ on Jul 21, 2008 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My 6 cuts

We will keep 2 FBs at the most once the season starts. I’m leaning more towards 1 FB and 4 TEs.
We will make at least 1 cut at FB and get down to 3, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they cut 2 of them.
Chris Mandarino or Steven Jackson will be gone, and I think ti will be Mandarino.

I agree that one of the o-liners will be cut. I’m going with OT Leffew.

I’m going with 1 cut at WR and I think it will be McMahan.

I agree that we will keep all the RBs.

At CB we have heard good things about Legget, so he will stay. Will Poll is an outstanding special teams player and will stay as well. I think Horton will be the one to go.

At LB i’m fairly certain that both Nate Harris and Octavian will make it to camp. So it is between E.J. Kuale, Weston Dacus or LeRue Rumph. I’ve got 33.3% chance of hitting the right one. I’m going with EJ Kuale only because he is not as young as the other two.

With both McBride and Boone able to play DT, I think the cut will be a DT. It will be either Murray or Lockey. It is tempting to say Murray will be cut because Lockey can play som FB as well and if he were to make the roster we would only have to keep one FB. I’m gonna say that Lockey will be cut though because Murray is a big SOB that might be able to push Tank and Edwards at NT.

To sum up:
FB Chris Mandarino
OT Leffew
WR McMahan
CB Horton
LB EJ Kuale
DT Lockey

by jimme on Jul 21, 2008 12:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs