Conservative Herm

by stag on Jul 10, 2008 12:32 PM CDT Comment 3 comments

This post stems pretty much directly from the fanpost by ChiefDJ at http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2008/7/8/567452/debunking-herm-myths-punti.

While I enjoy tables and graphs and such as much as the next stats-obsessed football fan, the raw punt/kick values did not seem to be very meaningful to me. As mentioned by others in the comments, discussing kicks/punts in terms of possessions should be a more interesting metric of determining whether a head coach REALLY wants to win 6-3 or is just a blowhard (the theory being that a team that scores a lot/is scored on a lot will have an inflated number of kicks/punts due to an increased number of possessions).

Below are some tables that I am hoping will help put the # of kicks/punts in the Edwards and Vermeil eras in better perspective. I'm still not entirely sure what conclusions can be drawn here, though. I've also incuded the '07 stats, since throwing out an entire statistical dataset because "we can all agree they were an anomoly" is no way to get published in the PNAS.

Just for reference, the 03-07 numbers came from PFW. I couldn't find an easy to utilize source for possession data from 01-02.

FUM = fumbles lost
INT = interceptions
PUNT = punts
PASS = passing TDs
RUSH = rushing TDs
FGA = field goals attempted
POSS = rough # of possessions (all of the above summed)
PC_PUNT = % of possessions punted
PC_FGA = % of possessions FGA
PC_KICK = % of possessions punted or FGA
PC_NOTD = % of possessions TD not scored
R_whatever = league rank of percentages above
All of the above actions (punting, kicking, not scoring a TD) are considered "bad" for this discussion, so a higher rank (1=best, 32=worst) is always better.

2007
TEAM	FUM	INT	PUNT	PASS	RUSH	FGA	POSS	PC_PUNT	PC_FGA	PC_KICK	PC_NOTD	R_PUNT	R_FGA	R_KICK	R_NOTD
K_C	13	20	96	17	6	27	179	0.53631	0.15084	0.68715	0.87151	30	5	29	31
N_Y_J	6	19	72	15	6	36	154	0.46753	0.23377	0.70130	0.86364	21	32	30	29
2006
TEAM	FUM	INT	PUNT	PASS	RUSH	FGA	POSS	PC_PUNT	PC_FGA	PC_KICK	PC_NOTD	R_PUNT	R_FGA	R_KICK	R_NOTD
K_C	14	12	72	18	17	31	164	0.43902	0.18902	0.62805	0.78659	10	22	13	12
N_Y_J	9	16	74	17	15	27	158	0.46835	0.17089	0.63924	0.79747	19	16	17	14
2005
TEAM	FUM	INT	PUNT	PASS	RUSH	FGA	POSS	PC_PUNT	PC_FGA	PC_KICK	PC_NOTD	R_PUNT	R_FGA	R_KICK	R_NOTD
K_C	13	10	65	17	26	33	164	0.39634	0.20122	0.59756	0.73780	3	28	7	5
N_Y_J	19	15	75	11	10	28	158	0.47468	0.17722	0.65190	0.86709	19	15	17	27
2004
TEAM	FUM	INT	PUNT	PASS	RUSH	FGA	POSS	PC_PUNT	PC_FGA	PC_KICK	PC_NOTD	R_PUNT	R_FGA	R_KICK	R_NOTD
K_C	10	17	55	27	31	23	163	0.33742	0.14110	0.47853	0.64417	1	6	1	2
N_Y_J	5	11	80	19	15	29	159	0.50314	0.18239	0.68553	0.78616	24	27	26	13
2003
TEAM	FUM	INT	PUNT	PASS	RUSH	FGA	POSS	PC_PUNT	PC_FGA	PC_KICK	PC_NOTD	R_PUNT	R_FGA	R_KICK	R_NOTD
K_C	6	12	81	24	32	20	175	0.46286	0.11429	0.57714	0.68000	14	1	5	1
N_Y_J	6	14	72	20	8	32	152	0.47368	0.21053	0.68421	0.81579	17	26	27	15

Again, it's important to emphasize that the possesssion values listed here are very, very rough. TDs, FGs, punts, and turnovers pretty much tell the story, but you're still letting a few things (safeties, missed 4th-down conversions, etc.) slip through the cracks.

In very short summary...
'03-'05 Vermeil's Chiefs - I think we all remember just how awesome this offense was (1st, 2nd, and 5th most likely to break the endzone on any given possession).

'03-'04 Herm's Jets - Always looking to punt/kick (27th and 26th ranked), but low turnovers keep them in the game (middling 15th and 13th best at scoring a TD). I think these are exactly the kinds of teams people are talking about when labelling Herm as conservative.

'05 Herm's Jets - Just a bad team. Run-of-the-mill kicking numbers, but 34 turnovers. They actually had 19 fumbles lost out of 36(!) total fumbles (most of those from Vinny Testaverde and Chad Pennington).

'06 Herm's Chiefs - This might be the best we can expect from our Chiefs for the next few seasons. Middle of the pack offense, slipping into the playoffs with a little luck. Hopefully fewer turnovers.

'07 Herm's Chiefs - ugh. I'm just going to look forward to next season, rather than dwell on this one.

Any thoughts?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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Now we can have a real conversation

Love it when I throw out numbers and people throw numbers back at me instead of just saying “That just doesn’t sound right”.

Perhaps the best way to gauge an offense is by percentage rather than raw numbers. As was rightly stated, an offense that can score every 2 minutes is naturally going to have a higher number of drives than a conservative grind it out offense that is looking for 10 minute drives.

So lets break things down by Plays from Scrimmage on Offense and compare the stats that way.

2001
Team Scrm Plays plays/FGA plays/Punt avg plays/point
Herms Jets 928 29.9 12.2 3.01
Vermeil Chiefs 1015 29 13.5 3.17
#1 offense (Rams) 1007 34.8 23.4 2

32 offense (Bengals) 1071 38.25 12.6 4.73

2002
Team Scrm Plays plays/FGA plays/Punt avg plays/point
Herms Jets 917 29.5 12.2 2.55
Vermeil Chiefs 965 35.7 13.5 2.06
#1 offense YOUR CHIEFS!

32 offense (Texans ) 1071 44.62 9.47 4.44

2003
Team Scrm Plays plays/FGA plays/Punt avg plays/point
Herms Jets 936 29.25 13.1 3.30
Vermeil Chiefs 1003 50.1 12.5 2.07
#1 offense YOUR CHIEFS!

32 offense (Cardinals) 981 75.46 11.9 4.36

2004
Team Scrm Plays plays/FGA plays/Punt avg plays/point
Herms Jets 996 34.3 12.4 2.9
Vermeil Chiefs 1089 47.3 19.8 2.25
#1 offense YOUR CHIEFS!

32 offense (Bears) 967 40.29 8.7 4.1

2005
Team Scrm Plays plays/FGA plays/Punt avg plays/point
Herms Jets 907 32.3 12 3.77
Vermeil Chiefs 1059 32 16.6 2.62
#1 offense (Seahawks) 1020 40.8 23.4 2.25

32 offense (Browns) 938 32.3 11.7 4.04

2006
Team Scrm Plays plays/FGA plays/Punt avg plays/point
Herms Chiefs 1004 32.3 13.7 3.03
#1 offense (Chargers) 1016 35 14.7 2

32 offense (Raiders) 949 37.9 12.3 5.6

1 offense avg plays per point = 2.16
Herms teams avg plays per point = 3.09
#32 offense avg plays per point = 4.5

What is important to note about all of this is that the number of plays is not really important since if you play a slow it down, grind it out offense like Herm does, you will have fewer possessions, but so will your opponent. Thats how you beat a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. You keep them off the field so they don’t have time to bury you.

Its what you do with your possessions that counts. Note that Herms teams, though often at the bottom of the league in plays from scrimmage due to his philosophy of running the ball and running time off the clock, he is usually much closer to the top of the league in plays per point than the bottom.

Remember that an intrinsic part of Herms philosophy is having a dominant defene. So if you make the most of each possession on offense and have a defense that can prevent the opponent from doing the same, you have a recipe to win. You can argue that Herm has not always been succesful at combining the two parts of the equation, but that does not mean the philosophy and the direction he is trying to take the team is unsound.

by ChiefDJ on Jul 10, 2008 6:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow that turned out ugly

Wish we had an edit function….

by ChiefDJ on Jul 10, 2008 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

When Herm's philosophy backfires...

that’s when we end up with a team like the ‘07 Chiefs. Our defense wasn’t bad but they were on the field too much. Our offense couldn’t “grind it out”... they usually just got ground to a pulp. It was almost a polar opposite from some of Vermiel’s teams.

I think what scares me most about last year, is that we were horrible at adjusting after halftime. I think the San Diego game was the only one where we came out in the 2nd half and improved. That, I believe, is a coaching problem… and I hope it comes back to Solari or something else we’ve “fixed”.

I’m just ready for ‘08 baby.

by Ochophosphate on Jul 11, 2008 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs