Overrated/Underrated Chiefs

by Direckshun on May 28, 2008 7:15 AM CDT Comment 34 comments

Pete Prisco from Sportsline scrolls over all 32 teams in the league and picks up one player from each team's roster who's overrated, and one who's underrated.

#1 most overrated player in the league: Reggie Bush. Most underrated is Rams' safety O.J. Atogwe.

As for the Kansas City Chiefs:

Kansas City Chiefs
Overrated: RB Larry Johnson. Yes, he was bothered by injuries last season. But was he a product of the Chiefs' line when he put up those big numbers in 2005 and '06? He averaged 3.5 per rush when he was on the field. That's not star stuff.

Underrated: WR Dwayne Bowe. As a rookie he caught 70 passes for 995 yards and five touchdowns. He got overlooked playing for a bad Kansas City team.

Disagree?

I do. I think LJ's a lightning rod for this kind of criticism because he's one of the few recognizable names on this team's roster. But when the Chiefs go 4-3 with him, and 0-9 without him... I don't know how you can pin much blame on him.

I'd say our most overrated player is Patrick Surtain, bar none. Guy was a Pro Bowler, pulls in more money than 95% of our roster, and he's done very little to justify it. Being an occasional shutdown corner doesn't warrant the attention he gets.

Most underrated is much tougher. I'm tempted to say DJ, but he was a first round pick and every year he disappoints to make it to the Pro Bowl. Perhaps Alphonso Boone is far more underrated for this defense.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Arrowhead Pride's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Arrowhead Pride writers or editors.

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Hmm...

Overrated – I’d have to agree, Surtain takes that to the bank (fo sho)
Underrated – DTs Boone/Edwards

by odendin on May 28, 2008 12:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Crodie is one

Overrated: Surtain’s play has declined in the past couple of years. His reputation has not.

Underrated: Here are the career statistics of two QBs that everyone who follows football in KC should know. The first is Brodie Croyle (or as I like to call the perception that many have, “Crodie”). The second is for you to guess.

Croyle played much better in his first (half)full season than did the second player. Who knows what Croyle’s trajectory will look like, but it seems foolhardy to dub him a bust or even spend much time being pessimistic about our chances with him.

Season Passing Rushing Fumbles
G GS Comp Att Pct Yds Avg TD Int Sck SckY Rate Att Yds Avg TD FUM Lost
2007 9 6 127 224 56.7 1,227 5.5 6 6 17 101 69.9 7 18 2.6 0 4 3
2006 2 0 3 7 42.9 23 3.3 0 2 1 10 11.9 3 -3 -1.0 0 – -

2007 16 16 297 529 56.1 3,336 6.3 23 20 27 217 73.9 29 69 2.4 1 13 7
2006 16 16 301 522 57.7 3,244 6.2 24 18 25 186 77.0 25 21 0.8 0 9 2
2005 16 16 294 557 52.8 3,762 6.8 24 17 28 184 75.9 29 80 2.8 1 9 2
2004 9 7 95 197 48.2 1,043 5.3 6 9 13 83 55.4 6 35 5.8 0 3 1

by pleaseblock on May 28, 2008 12:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting point.

Although we can’t really afford to give Croyle 4 years to develop. You can be more patient with #1 overall picks. But that’s another conversation.

by Direckshun on May 28, 2008 1:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Regardless if you think Larry Johnson is overrated or not, he is one of the top 5 runningbacks in the league and has the stats to prove it.

Dwayne Bowe, while he is an up and coming wide receiver, is not even in the top 20 at his position. It takes time for WR’s to develop and he could be an elite WR in time—but not just yet.

by MistahLong on May 28, 2008 8:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Larry WAS one of the top 5

until last year. Last year his performance does not warrant that accolade. Yea, everyone gets hurt, but when you miss over half the season you can’t be regarded as a top-5 running back for that year, and it doesn’t matter what you did the year before. Hopefully he will come back this year and regain top-5 status, but i don’t think you can say “Larry IS top 5” after last season.

by thehulk on May 28, 2008 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

4-3 with LJ, 0-9 without him.

That’s top 5.

by Direckshun on May 28, 2008 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not at all.

correlation and causation are not the same thing, and a team’s w/l record is not the measure for a running back’s rating as top 5. it’s his stats. Last year, Larry was 40th in yards, 91st in avg (although that’s distorted by a lot of backs that weren’t full-time starters), 19th in yds per game, and 39th in tds. that doesn’t equal top-5 in my book. and, yes, he was injured half the season, and that’s precisely why i’m saying he was top-5 the two years before, but NOT last year.

also, if we took the logic of ‘4-3 record means top-5’ then we’d have to rate every starting running back on every team that had a 7-game stretch w/ 4 wins as a top-5 running back.

that being said, i think team record probably SHOULD have something to do w/ how a player is rated, but w/l, or the attention an offense/defense pays to a certain player when he is in the game, are not quantifiable, so we’re stuck with stats. the argument that webb’s stats were better because of the attention that bowe received, or that bowe’s were better because of the attention TG received, or that LJ was better because of the blocking he received, is all well and good, but at the end of the day it’s personal stats that are the be-all end-all, and LJ was not top 5 in any stat last year.

by thehulk on May 28, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ps

those state were according to nfl.com, in case anyone was wondering or wanted to go check on them. i think i set the parameters correctly, to rb’s only, for 2007, regular-season only.

and on that note, the most touchdowns by any rb was 15 for LT. talk about a serious drop-off from the last 2 years where there was one or more rb that was just churning out the touchdowns left and right.

by thehulk on May 28, 2008 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

15?

That’s crazy…isn’t that half of what he had the year before? Talk about a slide in production…

by PVChiefsfan on May 28, 2008 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea,

he had 15 rushing and 3 receiving. the next best were joseph addai at 12/3 and AP at 12/1. Kinda crazy, with all the hype (deservedly so) about AP, and he only had 12 rushing TDs.

by thehulk on May 28, 2008 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

TOP 5

He said top 5 in the league. He didn’t say anything about having the top 5 performances at Running Back for the 2007 season… Every year counts. So yes, even the year before.

by Dustin SLO,CA on May 28, 2008 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

agree/disagree

It usually takes more than one year to drag players under. Look at Shaun Alexander. The year after he got hurt, people still considered him elite, this year however his stock will plummet. It took two years for Priest falling apart for people to drop him out of elite company too. Same for Marshall Faulk and so on.

On the flip, people weren’t sure Jamal Lewis would ever be great again, and last year he blew up again. I think he should have made the Pro Bowl over Derf Taylor.

So who’s above him?
LT
AP (which is tough after just one season, no matter how good it was)
Brian Westbrook?
Willie Parker?
Jamal Lewis?

There’s your top 5 leading rushers from last year.
Portis, Edgerrin James, McGahee, Fred Taylor and Thomas Jones round out the top 10.

So someone help me here. When LJ is healthy and we have something that resembles a line (anything is better than last year) who unseats Larry from the top 5? Cause honestly if all things are equal, I put LJ behind LT and AP and it’s real close for me between Westbrook, Parker and LJ… as each is almost completely different from the other in running style. I’d actually give my left nut to have a backfield with all 3 at my disposal… power, speed and versatility. Jamal is very similar to LJ… but I’ll still go with LJ.

by Ochophosphate on May 28, 2008 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you're going to give someone 2 years before writing them off/down,

i think we’d have to throw in frank gore. too early to tell if he was a flash in the pan or not, if we’re giving 2 years.
also maybe joseph addai?

The thing is, the offenses and specifically o-lines are so different on the teams that it’s hard to say which runner is so good despite his offense, and which runner is good because of it. any team with a strong passing game is going to have a running back that benefits from it, and any team that doesn’t is going to hurt the rb’s stats.

i would say AP, Parker, McGahee, and maybe Westbrook (although he muddles things because he’s such a receiving threat himself) all produce “despite” their offenses, and LT, Edge, Addai, and Marion Barber are better because of their offense (although i don’t know the first thing about Arizona’s line). Not taking away from them, but just saying the offense helps. This is all relative, i’m sure there are exceptions or specific games that might contradict, but just talking in a general sense.
And, of course, LJ’s production the last 2 years has been despite the offense, not because of it.

by thehulk on May 28, 2008 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"He's like a fresh of breath air"

His name is Marshawn Lynch, his name, is Marshawn Lynch.

Alright maybe not top 5, but the PARADE’d certainly classify him as underrated. You gotta remember with AP grabbing the spotlight, Lynch was running for the Bills, missed 3 games with an injury and still put up equal to better numbers than McGahee.

Would the PARADE rather have Lynch than LJ? No way, but the PARADE would say the Bills definitely upgraded, and the PARADE’s favorite Applebee’s connoisseur is seriously underrated.

by Official Arrowhead Pride Parade on May 28, 2008 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No disrespect here...but

I have to know – why do you capitalize PARADE and refer to yourself in the third person?

THE SCOOTNESS doesn’t understand :)

TOUCHDOWN! KAN-SAH-CITY!!!

by TheScootness on May 29, 2008 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

dang, ocho, you posted about 10 seconds before i was going to.

here’s what i was going to say, since i just spent a couple minutes typing it up, but some of my points aren’t going to make as much sense, since ocho just posted:

sure there’s a difference in definition between career running stats and stats just from last year, but that’s the point. My point is that based on ONLY last year’s performance, Larry is not a top-5 running back, which i realize isn’t the same thing as an entire career.

Hopefully he’ll regain his pre-injury form, but, for parallel analysis, would anyone say shaun alexander is still a top-5 rb? he set the td record and had almost 1900 yards 2 years ago, had 16 td’s and 1700 yards the year before that, but since then his production has dropped significantly. so, making the same argument, although it’s only 1 year of drop-off for larry, and 2 for alexander, i think it’s legit to question whether someone can be considered top-5 after a miserable season, before seeing whether that player has bounced back.

so sure, call him top-5 for the last three years, i guess, but in a league where careers can end at any time, and production can drop-off very quickly, i’m going to wait until he shows that he’s back to previous form this year before i will agree that he’s top-5 again.

I hope he does, i love seeing him pound the ball and run over defenders, and probably my favorite image is of him stiff-arming some db as he’s going out of bounds while the defender falls and he stays on his feet, but until i see it in 2008 i’m going to hold off on the accolades.

by thehulk on May 28, 2008 1:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

all good

no fear, it still makes sense.

We have positives:
A. Better line (seriously, it has to be better this year)
B. Better back-up RB’s with which to spell Mr. Larry Johnson
C. Bowe as a known threat in the passing game – people need to respect this kid now

Honestly, I hope to hell people sleep on LJ this year so he can come back with a bang.

by Ochophosphate on May 28, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

they won’t sleep on him until Brodie proves he can beat them by tossing it to Bowe and Co. At the beginning of the season,opposing D’s will be “play run, double Tony, and give safety help to the CB on Bowe.” The #2 receiver will be facing a LOT of 1-on-1 coverage, so let’s hope that Webb/Darling/franklin can take advantage of that.

by PVChiefsfan on May 28, 2008 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

if that's the common d

then we might actually LIKE seeing the 1-yard pass to the flat, because hopefully whoever catches it (TE or 2nd RB in besides Larry) will have some open space instead of an immediate tackle.

one thing i’ve really missed is seeing effective screen passes run. i hope we can execute those well this year. how awesome is it to see some lb or db getting absolutely mauled by a lineman blocking the second level…

by thehulk on May 28, 2008 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Especially if that lineman

is the 6’8” 330 lb. Barry Richardson…I want him to smush Champ Bailey or D’Angelo Hall like a bug :)

by PVChiefsfan on May 28, 2008 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+ Branden Albert

Watching his college tape, he works really well downfield.

I too miss the screen pass. That was one of my favorite things to watch when Priest was still in the backfield. It seems like Larry has meat-fisted one too many for them to be comfortable tossing a screen 3-5 times a game. If we get a line that can move, it will be nice to see it return.

by Ochophosphate on May 28, 2008 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very true

There was always disaster potential for opposing defenses when Priest got the screen and was flying along behind the likes of Willie Roaf.

LJ seems to have stone hands sometimes. This is where I can really see Charles excelling if he lives up to the hype.

TOUCHDOWN! KAN-SAH-CITY!!!

by TheScootness on May 29, 2008 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"play run, double Tony, and give safety help to the CB on Bowe."

The beautiful thing is, it’s damn near impossible to cover all 3 of those bases. Especially for 60 min. Especially with any type of play action. (assuming {which i am : ) } that our line is better AT ALL this year)

by Dustin SLO,CA on May 28, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

For the Haters ; )

He’s taking [Jamaal] Charles and putting his locker next to his. He wanted that. He wanted Charles to be next to him.

I think that’s HUGE! Especially for those who say he’s a cancer in the locker room ( you know who you are)

Another thing I think is a big thing to say about the guy…

The way he can lead now is by the way he practices. He’s doing a good job of that.

Larry’s a very competitive guy. He wants to be the best running back in the league.
Larry and I have a pretty good rapport. He trusts me…

There was a play today where RB Larry Johnson broke through a hole and ran 60 yards with some joy and some speed.

What more could you ask for!

For any of you who have played any sports (commitedly), is that not what you want on the field w/ you?! Is that not what you tried/try to do everyday?! Or even try to live your life like, not just athletically, but day to day?

by Dustin SLO,CA on May 28, 2008 3:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Brian Waters Is The Most Overrated Chief

He was a very good lineman in 2004 and 2005, he snuck into the Pro Bowl on reputation in 2006, he was terrible in 2007, and he apparently isn’t interested in improving his game for 2008. I suspect he’ll be exposed this year.

I’d say Alfonso Boone for most underrated…although it’s tough to think of anyone who’s really underrated for a 4-12 team that could easily have been 3-13 or 2-14. There just weren’t a lot of bright spots last year.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on May 29, 2008 9:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ooh...

Good point on Waters. He kind of sneaks under the radar of the 2007 “Shittiest Line Ever”. Everyone just assumes that he’ll return to form next year, but what if he was part of the problem?

TOUCHDOWN! KAN-SAH-CITY!!!

by TheScootness on May 29, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Don't Think He'll Return To Form

If only because 30+ year old players who refuse to attend offseason workouts rarely do. Plus, in that United Way ad of him that they’ve been showing, the dude looks like a beachball…probably carrying an extra 30 pounds at least. I think he’s simply lost the fire for competition…which is fine for Brian Waters personally if he’s getting tired of the grind (every career eventually ends), but I just think that we could do better by looking for someone who’s actually interested in being a top football player and working to improve.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on May 30, 2008 6:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

If they don’t already have his replacement planned, I really hope they draft one next year. Even if he does return to form this year, it won’t be long before he either starts sliding or decides to retire.

TOUCHDOWN! KAN-SAH-CITY!!!

by TheScootness on May 30, 2008 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

With the over/under from the original post. As far as the national media, everyone is questioning whether LJ can come back from the injury and everyone is raving about Bowe and how he was one of the only shining points on the team.

I would say the most overrated player would have to be Glenn Dorsey. Now hold on – don’t flame me yet. This is just because he hasn’t played a snap yet and everyone assumes that he’s going to be a monster. Yes, he probably will be, but he’s already being projected as the best player on the defense (which he may be next year) but he hasn’t done anything yet!

The most underrated player – Brodie Croyle. Hands down. Everyone writes him off even though he really had no chance to prove himself. They assume that since they didn’t win any games while he was the starter that he’s not the answer. All the “power rankings” have us very low and every one mentions him by name. I know we’ve pretty much come to the conclusion that he’s an unknown around here, but the national media seems to think that he’s done already.

TOUCHDOWN! KAN-SAH-CITY!!!

by TheScootness on May 29, 2008 5:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Brodie Croyle

I don’t think you can put him down as either most overrated or most underrated. He’s a third year QB, the jury’s still out on him and most people seem to recognize that. I don’t think anyone except the most extreme fanboys are saying that he had a great year last season, so you can’t really call him overrated, and he didn’t produce enough to be that valuable to the team when he played so he’s definitely not underrated. He’s just a question mark, like a lot of other guys on the squad.

Supporting the lesser of two evils is still supporting something evil.

by UCrawford on May 30, 2008 6:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

To clarify, I know we all know that he’s a question mark, but it seems that a lot of the bigger media outlets have already given up on him. I hope he can make them eat crow this year.

And I’m excited about all those question marks. The preseason should be pretty damn fun to watch this year!

TOUCHDOWN! KAN-SAH-CITY!!!

by TheScootness on May 30, 2008 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just wanted to point out that Larry Johnson’s YPG average at the point when he went out last year was 69.9 which over a 16 game season if he made it that far would still average out at 1118.4 yards. He wasn’t as terrible as you might want to say he was. Sure he had a rough start but he did pick it up before his injury, and there is nothing wrong with a 1000 yard back just because he didnt get 1700.

by Shawn on May 29, 2008 6:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

and you never know

when he would have had that game where he completely mauled the opposing team with 1-2 big runs. If he had stayed healthy, he would have broke 1,000…. I think he would have landed in the 1200-1300 range at the end.

Even in some of his crappy games, he could find a way to crack a 30 yarder in the 3rd-4th quarter to sneak himself up around the 100 yard mark. Our problem is we would play ourselves out of contention in the early 3rd quarter (we usually played decent in the 1st half) and Larry wouldn’t get many carries going forward… just enough to “keep em honest”.... which also didn’t work.

by Ochophosphate on May 30, 2008 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I should also point out his receiving ypg was 23.3 yards which ON AVERAGE would have turned out 372.8 yards over a 16 game season…i know this is hypothetical but lets face it, LJ was playing below average because of the people around him. There is no way he is an over rated player.

by Shawn on May 29, 2008 6:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs